Pathfinding

Volumes been really strange since the world economic forum. At first i thought it was Alpari clients taking a bigger part or something, if thats what the volumes are based on, but if i look closely i can see how volume is accumulated like normal, tick by tick.

Its often above 100 without coming to B3, really odd, its like price is trying to go someplace fast, but someone is buying/selling just as fast to keep it steady. Which means my usual volume calculations is about 25-50% off.

When price gets in the slow MAs, CCI and Stoch gets disrupted in the following moves toward the day old MA and such, so price gravitates to them, as if price gets caught in a field where CBs or someone like that are trying to stabilize it.

And as always i should not forget that both CCI and stoch is totally worthless and dont mean a thing as long as they dont get oversold/overbought.

Very big and uneven volumes today and yesterday.

Wow this is super strange, what a coincidence, all MAs lined up within B2, that looks super fucked up, ive never seen that before. So that means price cant really go anywhere, and if it does there is going to be S/R either way it goes. So its right smack in 24 hour equlibrium

Im still very interested in Dinapoli and his %K 8 %D 3 Slowing 3 stochastic. I tried searching around for some info on how to use his template, but to no avail. I would like to see how he uses his MAs and in what timeframe. There might be some golden nuggets to take home to my template in what he does. By the war i ripped out the CCI and stoch on H1, its just confusing to look at.

Today i hit record in pips/day, not money/day though, far from it, i cant trade my usual lot size until this Volume issue resolves. Think im somewhere at 35 pips for today. If id just would have had about...40 times the lot size i would have compensated from my extreme shithead moves last tuesday. Why didnt anybody stop me, tare me from the computer last tuesday? God damnit i need to hire some goblins to take care of that kinda stuff. Maybe i can teach em to analyze high TFs

Wooow damnit, more then 40 pips. I need more money.

My first target of getting skilled is when Is profit factor of greater then 2 on average, calcultated on a couple of months.

So my second target of getting really skilled is when i dont see any amount on "profit" in the trade tab, that is greater then my average winnings/day.

My third target of getting super friggin mad skilled is when i use less combined SL ever on the table then the amount i gain on average.

Friggin Dow jones just spammed me with about 100 news in a couple of minutes! They should call it Dow Jones Spam wire

So ive been going through last tuesday and events about that time. If i suppose i can avoid being a total idiot, the question remains, loose small and often or loose big and seldom. With a really smart mm and lot allocation, loosing can pretty much be a thing of the past i think. It can only work within a system that is very good and accurate of course.

So say a spacing of about x pips per lot is still pretty much spot on. Incremental lots is very hard to use, since the gain from one lot becomes very small. I think the x is also pretty much the general best TP if a fixed one need to be used. That of course means there will never be any big gains, but rather a smooth scaling.

Either that or a one two punch theory with x difference between SLs, but with sort of the same TP. It would seem price is chaotic for about x pips, meaning sometimes it the calculation doesnt work, but falls short of only about x pips.

Any way, the "sproooing" effect from getting through the old MAs + CCI and stoch at or beyond the red line is what i need to be watching. So as long as i dont go insane again this will work out. After the Sprooing effect i need to se a decline/increase in stoch before i enter.

I added a MACD to show distance between first and last MA in fast group. It seems sometimes i get overexited so i enter when this distance is not sufficient, and sometimes its a bit hard to judge by eye if the distance is sufficient or not. Though it seems i cant get the last decimal i would want. Guess ill just have to thicken the line to get the effect i want.

Its REALLY hard to allocate a bunch of lots at the right spacing, i need to train myself on that really hard, calcultated distance, calculated distance, calcultated distance.

Got my butt almost handed to me because of uneven and to tight spacing.

Eas are munching crystal meth today, volumes at 170 in the morning and now 223. Ill have a look see what volumes other people are getting. It might be because of ECB + Bernanke nagging later today.

Its about the kind of volumes we say in mid may when we had a "Flash crash"

I put Dinapoli stoch at same place as a fast one, and i put a MACD based on fastest and slowest on fast group MAs, and my mind was blown.

Fast stoch takes are of what the CCI did while the Slow stoch comes in and gives confidence and probability once in a while, and preferably all the time. Those two stochs just picks price apart pretty nicely.

A regular Stoch heartbeat is on average about 12 minutes or something like that.

The thing thats a bit counter intuitive with the stoch is that even if its made a new high, and its starts to go back to the middle, price can still go opposite direction, meaning even if the stochs start heading home, enterin after can be a super deal.

Alparis volumes has been going haywire so i learned to live without it, so more space for price and indies, yay!

almost completely dead until 14:30 when US NFP came in and BOOM down for a bit then BOOM helluva quick retrace then BOOM counter retrace and BOOM counter counter retrace. At least im not bored, need coffee to stay awake, less then 4 hours sleep, analyzed until 2 AM yesterday. Couple of quickies in the first BOOM down, missed out on some and got half bad on one but came out OK. Now its a damn battle every candle, every second.

almost completely dead until 14:30 when US NFP came in and BOOM down for a bit then BOOM helluva quick retrace then BOOM counter retrace and BOOM counter counter retrace. At least im not bored, need coffee to stay awake, less then 4 hours sleep, analyzed until 2 AM yesterday. Couple of quickies in the first BOOM down, missed out on some and god half bad on one but came out OK. Now its a damn battle every candle, every second.

It really bugs me when height angle gets filled with some crazy moves, so the rest gets to tiny i can hardly see it, but then i can make the window smaller, drawback is then i get so little historical data to look at.

Oh an old friend from the summer is coming for a visit, the old bank EA retire pattern.

Oh i really lost track of time this time: Woke up right about now, 6:30, turned on the computer and metatrader just wouldnt connect. Connection failed [No connection]. Hmm maybe UK bank holiday i thought, hope its not one of those "extra" bank holidays. Well as it turns out, i was wrong, its just a regular saturday. I could havet bet three of my fingers it was monday, i wanted it to be monday i guess, so i could finally get some one position trading done. Well turns out i cant control which day of the week it is with just power of will.

I just looked at what would happen if i was to trade H1, that would just suck, i would need SL of 50, TP about 30, win 70% of the time or some such, if not riskier MM is employed in which case the losses could be catastrophic. Indies like that are complete DUNG on H1 and above.

Couple of things happend before lunch, then a loooong lunch and then booooooring trichet wants to nag, nag, nag and lie, lie, lie

I think coffee is might be detrimental to my trading. It might upset the natural balance of brain chemicals.

The double stoch and stuff was cuper cool for a while in backtest and then it ran in to some heavy troubles early december and at some other times.

It would seem though that december was a pretty strange month. Its pretty cool that i was profitable in it anyway.

Tried all day dumping what ever i could think of unto the chart, Slow RSIs, fast RSIs, other slower channels, a million different things. Using a slow RSI to try to take away some of the signals that goes against a strong trend sort of works, but it takes away a bunch of profitable signals as well. For instance a 20 RSI filters out a couple of bad trades if i dont place any trades if its beyond a certain limit. But systems relying on such things for trading seems quite erratic, probably since they utilize other indicators, and so the compound of their logic is different. So the way to try to go with something like that is to average it out somehow, try to encompass as many trend following systems as possible at once and try to understand what they indicate to the users, and then just NOT try to go up agaisnt them.

Well when i did trade 2 positions that pretty much works, but its a lot judgement and little pure mechanical system so its difficult to say how it would fare on backdata if i make any modification to that sort of thinking. Only things that ever burnt me to a crisp doing that was tuesday 2 weeks ago, when i totally lost my friggin mind and the market went totally bananas. Well at least i know how many candles i need to stay the fuck away after it got through the day average.

Now price is in equalibrium. Ill have a look see when it happend last time.

I really need to base this on data, im not so sure about this any more.

Im getting really tired. And the more tired i get the stronger a feeling im getting that i need to trust non arithmetic/euclidean judgement more then past data. Might seem like a really stupid idea, but i guess in this case stupidity might be a result of being really tired.

But of course that kind of venture puts things like...well pretty much everything that ever happend into a strange place. How am i to understand lot allocation, SL, TP, when to enter and so on if i would ever take such a venture seriously? Well that of course must be taken care of by said judgement.

I think its mostly this temporary industrial civilisation thing that gets me tired.