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Profit All Day System

  • #181
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:08am Jan 30, 2011 12:08am
I know cubby is honest, so I am intereted in this system, and would like to study further...

I just figure out a way to backtest it. First, change the parameters of ema to 39 15 9 in 5m chart. then the ema is the same as 15m, you can make the confirmation in 5m chart now,and do not need to change to 15m to make the confirmation. And then use the strategy tester in mt4 to backtest it!!! You can see the ema's change during each 5m bar's formation. works great!
  • #182
  • Edited 1:06am Jan 30, 2011 12:15am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting FerruFx
If that can help in testing (backward) and see easily the break of the last HH/LL, just apply the indicator I've developped last night for this thread.

According to my understanding, it should follow the rules in the post #1.

Note : this is only to follow the break on the current TF. The confirmation TF and CCI aren't involved.

All the best Cubbybgood for your thread.

FerruFx
so great! it's much better than the fractals.

I just notice it's different to the fractals.
Fractals will mark a high arrow if 1 bar of each side of this bar is lower than this bar's high.
Your indicator need at least 2 bars of each side of this bar are lower than this bar's high.

which is correct? do we need to consider 1 bar on each side or 2 bars on each side?
  • #183
  • Jan 30, 2011 4:25am Jan 30, 2011 4:25am
Quoting bobowang
I just notice it's different to the fractals.
Fractals will mark a high arrow if 1 bar of each side of this bar is lower than this bar's high.
Your indicator need at least 2 bars of each side of this bar are lower than this bar's high.

which is correct? do we need to consider 1 bar on each side or 2 bars on each side?
This indicator follow the rule of post #1 which is :

Quoting Cubbybgood
What is the lowest low?
It's when the current candle has at least 2 candles before and after that are higher then it itself.

What is the highest high?
It's when the current candle has at least 2 candles before and after that are lower then it itself.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #184
  • Edited 6:36am Jan 30, 2011 5:06am | Edited 6:36am
Hi

Nice little system and it looks like you make a profit consistantly, so if you reach your goals everyday then thats great, thats what we are all doing it for. I have an open mind and am willing to encompass any ideas that will make me a winner and respect any trader willing to share what they do.

However in my opinion having a system that has an entry once price has moved significantly in a certain direction is not ideal, the reasons are you are lining the pockets of those that know how to trade, which is fine by me..lol, you risk the move running out of steam and giving you a stressful time as it faulters, or worst still it going totally against you.

Novice traders enter once price has already moved, when there indicators are telling them too....wrong concept ! Learning how to trade and geting in early is the key to low risk, high reward trades. The risk reward strategy of this system is very bad and long term for many will empty there accounts, as previously highlighted by some traders in this thread.

Im not running down your system here, just highlighting that 90% of the systems on this forum are using indicators in the same way....late.

Best of luck

ab1
  • #185
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:22am Jan 30, 2011 7:22am
I don't get it how the risk reward can be bad when your PW is .8 to.85....

As long as your winnings are greater than your losings, what does it matter? Money Management is about getting a positive outcome, if we have a positive outcome (over a large number of trades), then we have sound money management
  • #186
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:34am Jan 30, 2011 7:34am
Quoting FerruFx
If that can help in testing (backward) and see easily the break of the last HH/LL, just apply the indicator I've developped last night for this thread.

According to my understanding, it should follow the rules in the post #1.

Note : this is only to follow the break on the current TF. The confirmation TF and CCI aren't involved.

All the best Cubbybgood for your thread.

FerruFx
thanks,
I will try this, maybe I could have a better system,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #187
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:53am Jan 30, 2011 7:53am
Quoting scottyfromau
I don't get it how the risk reward can be bad when your PW is .8 to.85....

As long as your winnings are greater than your losings, what does it matter? Money Management is about getting a positive outcome, if we have a positive outcome (over a large number of trades), then we have sound money management
I agree,

This is my first post, so forgive me if I may state something that you may already know.

I've been reading this thread and I find it interesting that no one has tried to quantify this argument to see if his money management strategy is potentially profitable. You just can't look at his risk to reward ratio and say that he has a bad money management strategy. You have to look at the whole picture. It is very simple actually. I can start a detailed thread( if there isn't one already) or just message me for a better explanation.

In probability theory, the expected value is the weighted average of a particular outcome based on the frequency of that outcome.

Frequency of Win x Amount Won - Frequency of losing x Amount Lost. So, if cubby is averaging 80% on his trades he is profitable overall.

Let's say cubby risks 30 pips to win 15 pips. So, %80 x 15 pips - %20 x 30 pips. So, cubby is averaging 6 pips per trade.

As long as cubby is averaging over 66% he will be profitable in the long.

Sorry if that wasn't interesting. But, I think people should have a better understanding about money management and expected value. I hope that this helped.

Happy Trading.
  • #188
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:24am Jan 30, 2011 9:24am
Quoting ZeroSumGame
I agree,

This is my first post, so forgive me if I may state something that you may already know.

I've been reading this thread and I find it interesting that no one has tried to quantify this argument to see if his money management strategy is potentially profitable. You just can't look at his risk to reward ratio and say that he has a bad money management strategy. You have to look at the whole picture. It is very simple actually. I can start a detailed thread( if there isn't one already) or just message me for a better explanation.

In...


Wow! a lot of action going on with this thread last night.
Thanks for the interest in this thread.

I would like to respond to every body's post but there are just to many now...

Zero, you are right on the money management. Some body mentioned that this system has late entry's with the trend. This may be right but I've left something out of the strategy on purpose till people understood the concept of this system....

I know that the RR ratio can be a hard one to handle for some but the key element I was leaving out in this system helps with this a tun.

70% of your trade should be exited after TP hit. 30% should be left in till ema's 3 and 5 cross the 13. This means the trend is most likely done.

Take a look at the pic below.
SL for this trade was 35 pips
TP was 17 pips.

70% of my trade was taken out at 17 pips profit while the rest is left in till 3 and 5 cross 13.

Currently this trade is at +71 pips with the 30% of the trade that was left over. So you can see how powerful this change makes the system.

Some trades will not end really great with the 30% left in but most likely you will make a lot lot more pips on your trades. On a bad day a little will be made or you'll break even still making the original 17 pips profit. Once in a while you might lose a few pips with the extra 30% but still you will almost always come out with profit.


I will be posting this new info soon on the first post....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic1.gif Size: 123 KB
  • #189
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:31am Jan 30, 2011 9:31am
Quoting FerruFx
If that can help in testing (backward) and see easily the break of the last HH/LL, just apply the indicator I've developped last night for this thread.

According to my understanding, it should follow the rules in the post #1.

Note : this is only to follow the break on the current TF. The confirmation TF and CCI aren't involved.

All the best Cubbybgood for your thread.

FerruFx
Very good work on this indiactor ferruFX! Looks great!
  • #190
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:34am Jan 30, 2011 9:34am
Quoting Cubbybgood
Very good work on this indiactor FerruFx! Looks great!
You're welcome. Hope it will help for easier backtests ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #191
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:40am Jan 30, 2011 9:40am
Quoting bobowang
I know cubby is honest, so I am intereted in this system, and would like to study further...

I just figure out a way to backtest it. First, change the parameters of ema to 39 15 9 in 5m chart. then the ema is the same as 15m, you can make the confirmation in 5m chart now,and do not need to change to 15m to make the confirmation. And then use the strategy tester in mt4 to backtest it!!! You can see the ema's change during each 5m bar's formation. works great!
This is an interesting concept.
I gave it a look. It looked close but not quite the same. The ema's on the 5 minute look like they cross later with new settings then they do on the 15 min time frame.

Anyway, this can be changed. I really don't want to mess with an already good product here. If I see anything different on the ema crosses. This could mess with the system making it less profitable.

Anyway the ema's can be tweaked more Or is this as close as you can get? Still a great idea. Maybe I'll take a look at it during live trading...
  • #192
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:44pm Jan 30, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting scottyfromau
I don't get it how the risk reward can be bad when your PW is .8 to.85....

As long as your winnings are greater than your losings, what does it matter? Money Management is about getting a positive outcome, if we have a positive outcome (over a large number of trades), then we have sound money management
Hi

OK sorry to be the bringer of bad news but wait till you get 5 losses in a row...then your maths will mean nothing... R:R will be and is everything.
  • #193
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:44pm Jan 30, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting FerruFx
You're welcome. Hope it will help for easier backtests ...
Hi, FerruFx

First thanks for your indicator.

Second, would you agree to implement an optionnal Sound Alert and / or a message alert when there is a breakout ?

TIA

Best Regards

BBF
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #194
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:59pm Jan 30, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting BLACKFEET
... would you agree to implement an optionnal Sound Alert and / or a message alert when there is a breakout ?
Will look at this asap.

Please be patient as I am really busy ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #195
  • Jan 30, 2011 3:01pm Jan 30, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting ab1
Hi

OK sorry to be the bringer of bad news but wait till you get 5 losses in a row...then your maths will mean nothing... R:R will be and is everything.
In the past year of using this system I've never had more then 2 losses in a row trading on the EU and GU. I try to pick my trades wisely.

During my trading hours I'll always start looking at the higher time frames like the 4 hour first then go all the way down to the 5 minute and take a trade there if there are no options on the higher time frames.
  • #196
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:09pm Jan 30, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Wow! a lot of action going on with this thread last night.
Thanks for the interest in this thread.

I would like to respond to every body's post but there are just to many now...

Zero, you are right on the money management. Some body mentioned that this system has late entry's with the trend. This may be right but I've left something out of the strategy on purpose till people understood the concept of this system....

I know that the RR ratio can be a hard one to handle for some but the key element I was leaving out in this system helps with...
I was going to mention that you may want to let your profits run in strong trending markets. I am glad that you noticed. I think it would be a leak if you didn't. By allowing your profits to run, will increase your overall EV in the long run. You seemed to have something that works for you based on your trading style and experience.

I won't go into the math, because most people don't care. Looking forward to following your posts and hearing your input and what's going through your head in your trades.

Good luck and happy trading
  • #197
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:14pm Jan 30, 2011 9:14pm
just made a quick 9 pips! Loving this system!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgif.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #198
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:15am Jan 31, 2011 3:15am
Quoting ab1
Hi

OK sorry to be the bringer of bad news but wait till you get 5 losses in a row...then your maths will mean nothing... R:R will be and is everything.
Well that wouldn't happen with propper money management.

We can define our statistical limit to drawdown with the following

ln(1-0.999)/ln(1-PW)

thus is PW if equal to .85, the equation equals around 3.65, so lets say the maximum allowable losses in a row is 4.

If risk is equal to 5%, we can lose 20% of our account in this scenario.

So I'd make a rule that states if over 20% of the account is lost then stop trading and paper trade for a while, find out whether its due to system failure or just a bad roll of the dice.

If you have a 10k account and over a month make say 5k (as my backtest shows) then say you lose 3k (my backtest doesn't show this thankfully) and stop, you've still made 2k profit. I'm pretty happy with that.
  • #199
  • Edited 4:05am Jan 31, 2011 3:46am | Edited 4:05am
long 3637, targ 3655, stop 3600

+18 realised, with a 10k account @ 50:1 lev thats $180 cold hard cash.
  • #200
  • Edited 4:39am Jan 31, 2011 4:25am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting scottyfromau
long 3637, targ 3655, stop 3600

+18 realised, with a 10k account @ 50:1 lev thats $180 cold hard cash.
I caught it too. right to the tick. awesome.
may take another one @3662. target 3678 (which happens to be daily pivot as well.)
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