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vsa with Malcolm

  • #10,941
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:04am Jan 30, 2011 6:04am
@Intel

What is that £100 challenge in your sig??
  • #10,942
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:10am Jan 30, 2011 6:10am
Quoting masq
@Intel

What is that £100 challenge in your sig??
Want to see how far I can go with £100 in 12 months.
  • #10,943
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:12am Jan 30, 2011 6:12am
Quoting Intel
Want to see how far I can go with £100 in 12 months.
3 trades...how long have you been doing this??
  • #10,944
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:15am Jan 30, 2011 6:15am
Quoting masq
3 trades...how long have you been doing this??
A few weeks, but I havn't actually traded much during this time.
  • #10,945
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:26am Jan 30, 2011 6:26am
Quoting Intel
A few weeks, but I havn't actually traded much during this time.
So have you had a live account for a long time...i observe that you were here since the end of 2009??
  • #10,946
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:31am Jan 30, 2011 6:31am
Quoting masq
I do make a regular profit and i don't use anything but vsa and fibonacci....i use dukascopy's volume for my trading because i have in writing from them that their volume is an aggregate of all their liquidity providers...and some of the biggest liquidity providers in the world work with them...as a matter of fact i think they now have a direct link into icap(ebs)...

as for mt4 try varengoldfox's their demo is without expiration and volume data is almost same as dukascopy's
D'you use JForex or MT4 ?
With the greatest respect, if you use MT4 you should change as soon as you can. Use it for analysis by all means but never for trading. Its such a bent platform....
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
  • #10,947
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:34am Jan 30, 2011 6:34am
Quoting dr_who
D'you use JForex or MT4 ?
With the greatest respect, if you use MT4 you should change as soon as you can. Use it for analysis by all means but never for trading. Its such a bent platform....
hahaha i use only jforex...just wish they had a longer demo....now i have to register for those contests every month so that i can avoid registering every 14 days...i haven't even tried their mt4 yet but mt4 shows tick data whereas jforex shows actual contract data...so its a deal breaker right there...
  • #10,948
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:41am Jan 30, 2011 6:41am
Quoting masq
So have you had a live account for a long time...i observe that you were here since the end of 2009??
Had an account which I had to stop for personal reasons. Now starting again.
  • #10,949
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:47am Jan 30, 2011 6:47am
Quoting Intel
Had an account which I had to stop for personal reasons. Now starting again.
Oh i just wanted to know because i have had an $200 account with deltastock for 3 weeks now and so far they have no pulled any shenanigans...then again i am a position trader so execution slippage etc are only a problem during sl and tp....

however after reading a lot of reviews at fpa i saw that most brokers manipulate prices etc..even ecns like fxcm..
  • #10,950
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:02am Jan 30, 2011 7:02am
Quoting hutrader
So you see an inverted hammer on decent volume. The result versus Effort is bad since we end on the lower part of the candle. Then a low volume up bar appears followed by a bit higher volume "upthrust" what is way lower volume than the bar circled in yellow and then followed by a smack down with increasing volume. This is the way you see it?
I think..

The bar circled in yellow indicates that pros took profit=no interest in higher price

White bar seems that demand dried up= no demand

The next bar trap up move after no demand
  • #10,951
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:09am Jan 30, 2011 7:09am
Quoting kamise
I think..

The bar circled in yellow indicates that pros took profit=no interest in higher price

White bar seems that demand dried up= no demand

The next bar trap up move after no demand
The trap up move etc just takes away attention from the real deal...the effort vs result....While everything can be explained in terms of effort vs results...for example , the upthrust : low volume bullish candle just market momentum of a finished up move etc...it really used to make me feel good that i would be taking money from a lot of suckers
  • #10,952
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:04am Jan 30, 2011 8:04am
weekly ave range is 350 pip eu .. in fact if this is extraordinary week due to egypt fairytale than we could see 1.3210 . which is 61.8 retrace of the 700 pip up move.

you are right though there is a support level at 1,3360 area , this would be nice area to add to sells , once the 1st 20 lots has stops at +200 , we could add another 20 lots on a break of 1.3360 and test on no demand

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Quoting SimpleDev
I see where you get 3270.. but why not 3434? It played a major role as resistance during the last accum phase, you dont think it will hold as support?

that is unless 3566 holds.




*EDIT*

On a VSA side note 1h friday at 9am, highest concentration of volume since the 1/13 break out, which is on a down bar. Looking for bullish confirmation on a higher TF.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #10,953
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:13am Jan 30, 2011 8:13am
I know i have said this before and do not want anyone to take this as I am telling you how to trade , but 5 min chart does not give a clear picture of what pros are up to ...

ONCE AGAIN REMEMBER VSA IS ALL ABOUT BACKGROUND.

15 min of Thursday already showed the sellers coming in VERY CLEARLY . once we saw no demand on Friday in london at the same area , the sell was CLEAR AS DAY. Like taking candy from a baby

VSA IS NOT ABOUT ONE CANDLE .. IT IS ABOUT BACKGROUND

48 hours , one trade , 150 pip , 30 min charting

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #10,954
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:14am Jan 30, 2011 8:14am
How I see it is the fact that we've dropped out of a trading range on an increased volume. If I'm not wrong this should be a negative what means that we're over distribution phase 2. Anybody that can confirm this?
thnx
  • #10,955
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:32am Jan 30, 2011 8:32am
well well well...so many claims and counter claims...everyone seems confused....those who were ultra bullish on thursday are now ultra bearish on friday...so easy to explain everything after the fact...so easy to twist ur arguments to explain something as both accumulation or distribution after it has happened.....

all this points to one thing...no one knows for sure...trust urself and trust ur own analysis....have stops on all trades...have good money management....else u will lose, surely...its all in the mind...
  • #10,956
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:33am Jan 30, 2011 8:33am
Without any doubt VSA is not a system, it's a way of looking at the charts and to learn it you have to study a lot, many many hours of screen. If you want to use it first you have to do your homework, and do it hard.
  • #10,957
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:36am Jan 30, 2011 8:36am
weekly chart hou-tc .... 200% bull etf oil on the tsx

left to right

1) stopping
2) test
3) test on high volume and long entry... took long entry after 3 months of tracking on weekly...$6 for 7.50 exit on no demand bar at 4)
4) no demand
5) reaction to no demand = test on highest vol since may ...

this trade took 3 MONTHS to track .... for the pension plan...for a 23% return ...all in . I f I get 23% return a year on pension plan account I am out performing most ..in fact i did a few trades like this one

future .. looking for move to 8 , then if ooil goes into super spike to 110 / 120 on egypt fairytale , then 10.24 , in fact if this weekly plays out it is a 50% move in this etf , reflecting a 25% move in oil.....

I am also long oil on the futures

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #10,958
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:45am Jan 30, 2011 8:45am
5 min traders confused for sure...

sonofin , dr g and I been looking higher time frames... sonofin hit GU on sells several times thru the week and as far as i know was very happy by end of week

step back and look at markets form higher time frames and everything is clear. get 9 hours sleep a night, do not over think news, in fact do not even listen to news , and above all have balance in your life.

I have changed my trading times in January .. my results have blown me away. Most trades posted here on the weekends

I trade 2hr charts using sa/r and vsa. Goal 200 pip a week x 2 to 3 pairs , 2 hours in the market tops.

Next week i am looking for break 1.3600 , test this 1.3230 area on the chart. If Tuesday / wed the moves has not progressed well then I need to rethink , but that is 3 days away and for now this is what I am expecting to happen.

eventually the egypt fairytale will be a long distant memory ( for us anyway not for those who lve in egypt) .... and the charts will tell us that the buyers have arrived once more

Everything we need to know is in the charts


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Quoting ns_karthik
well well well...so many claims and counter claims...everyone seems confused....those who were ultra bullish on thursday are now ultra bearish on friday...so easy to explain everything after the fact...so easy to twist ur arguments to explain something as both accumulation or distribution after it has happened.....

all this points to one thing...no one knows for sure...trust urself and trust ur own analysis....have stops on all trades...have good money management....else u will lose, surely...its all in the mind...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #10,959
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 30, 2011 8:56am | Edited 9:11am
it all depends if 1.3560 breaks..

otherwise there is a possibility to see 1.3769.. and then 1.34xx.

As of now that 4 hr candle looks very mean...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #10,960
  • Edited 9:50am Jan 30, 2011 9:14am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting malcolmb14
5 min traders confused for sure...

sonofin , dr g and I been looking higher time frames... sonofin hit GU on sells several times thru the week and as far as i know was very happy by end of week

step back and look at markets form higher time frames and everything is clear. get 9 hours sleep a night, do not over think news, in fact do not even listen to news , and above all have balance in your life.

I have changed my trading times in January .. my results have blown me away. Most trades posted here on the weekends

I trade 2hr charts using...
Not sure if we will see as deep as 3230. 3300 has a lot of levels all coming together on the 4hr chart. Jan 3rd POC at 3306, 2/8 MM level also at 3306 and 50% fib of this upmove at 3316. Right now I see this area as the final stop before re-starting the move up.

On the way down this week I see possible hang ups at 3550, 3500, 3470, 3430 and 3370.

If we get below 3300 and close there on daily I will re-evaluate for more possible downside. I am also looking for price to get below the 3600 and even 3550 levels by end of day Monday and 3500 by London on Tuesday. If this has not happened then I will start looking again for upside targets. Also we are right now just above the 50% fib of the overall downmove from back in November which still could provide support. I agree which Malc that if we don't get above the 3630 level early on Monday then downside it is. If we do get back above it and hold and close above this and even better the 3670 area then I will start looking again at buying for longer term upside targets per previous analysis.

This retrace and even possible further retrace is needed to gather steam if the bulls do want to continue. I was loking for a close above the 61.8 fib at 3742 by end of day Friday and since we did not get that this move down was IMHO imminent.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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