Elliott Wave Trading

Halleujah! At last...

Yes, it finally stalled at the 85.4% projection in Wave -v- (from the 1.3243 Wave -iv- low) and the 85.4% projection in Wave v of Wave -c- of Wave -v-...

There is every chance that it could go below 1.30. I'm open to either way as I'm not bearish to below 1.1879. One reason is that it seems that we may be in daily a triangle in EURJPY that could limit EURUSD on the downside. More, I'm looking at USDJPY and USDCHF to come through with strength. More watch the Dollar Index for a brief move above 82.44 before reversing lower...

...very well predicted..keep it up Ian..hv a nice weekend

IAN..

referring to you cause you look for fib ratios.

Here is the chart.The only sense I can make out of price stopping at 1.3757precisely.

Wave#3 is not labelled yet but start point of this ABC is taken from 1.2959 to meet 1.382%fib @ 1.3757.

Red fibs to show what happened today..an ABC ...

This can still go higher..hope not.. cause I am short from 1.3756.But 1.3683 is a strong support as is...Followed by

1.3497 and 1.3401 ..LAST ONE 1.3065

I have a question for you. Ian: I still have 2 long EUR/USD positions that I was not able to close since I fell asleep.

On the assumption that the downturn has begun (which is what I'm inclined to think), what's the highest price level the EUR/USD would likely retrace to based on your computation?

TIA!

Does EW still works? Or only after the facts?

Thats just an Amazing Question......Thanks I needed this laugh...

You're welcome

But seriously, I am interested in taking a better look at EW but there are so manu different counts these days while we look at the same chart. So kinda wonder how reliable it is.

Ian,

we are still in wave "iii" based on the count with the highest rating of the RET software:

http://img37.imageshack.us/i/eweurusd281.gif/

Sixer

Hi All....

Lots of questions and observations... Here is what I have and I'll try and respond to all the questions/observations...

First the entire 5-wave move:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...-wavechart.jpg

Now the ratios for the count:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...RUSD5-wave.jpg

I don't normally look for an 85.4% projection as they don't happen that often... ie, basically look for the higher risk areas. In this instance the 85.4% projection in Wave (v) was at 1.3754 and related Wave (c) of Wave (v) at 1.3758...

To cover the others, the Wave (iii) was 5 pips over the 261.8% projection of Wave (i) and 198.4% projection in Wave (c). At the time I was going for the 1.3379-87 area because of the ratios - particularly the 161.8% projection in Wave (c) as it's rare to get a 198.4% projection...

The Wave (iv) was pretty close to the 41.4% retracement with the sum of Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) close to 90% - very, very common for the sum to be within 90%-110% (maybe 1 standard dev) and 80%-120% (maybe 2 std dev)...

Then came Wave (v)... which had great matching ratios at 1.3700-05 - which is why I opted for that target. With the limited pullback and the crazy consolidation it suggested the 85.4% projection. You will also see that the final high was an 85.4% projection in Wave v of Wave (c)... (to be precise at 1.3749...)

So... for me that's a 5-wave rally. There are strong hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences.

Right, to respond to other points in order that I see them is the topic review below which could be reverse order...

RET: Give me the internal count and ratios. Doesn't look right to me and a factor of the ability under the way people use EW to make up stuff as they go along.

"Does EW still works? Or only after the facts? "

If you look back I was forecasting 1.3700-05 and afterwards, with the lack of pullback identified the 1.3749-54 area... Harmonic Elliott Wave provides a framework for forecasting... I agree, when I see most (not all) wave counts they tend to be retrospective...

"Here is the chart.The only sense I can make out of price stopping at 1.3757precisely."

Hopefully my spreadsheet explains...

"I have a question for you. Ian: I still have 2 long EUR/USD positions that I was not able to close since I fell asleep."

Well, I've not analyzed the decline so far so cannot comment with any information gleaned from the ratios is the decline. However, first observation is that this initial decline has reached the Wave b of Wave v (always the first target) and therefore if we extend this thinking the next target has to be the Wave (b) of Wave (v) at 1.3395 - or more likely just above. From a traditional pattern target the next is the wedge base at 1.3243... and wedge targets tend to be achieved pretty quick...

From merely eyeballing the decline I'd suggest this looks like a Wave iii so far and with Wave ii looking as if it was a flat then the Wave iv will be very brief. Then we'll see a Wave v (I guesstimate) in the low-mid 1.35's... Don't get too carried away with a deep Wave b... these can be pretty brief and by traditional pattern analysis (ie wedges) that must be the risk...

Other thoughts:

This has confirmed a Wave -b- low of a Wave ^e in the Dollar Index. Wave -a- was at 82.44 so we have to expect a high above there. Also I feel we are in an expanded flat in USDCHF and a weekly Wave (b) higher in USDJPY... so (if I am right...) this all converges to Dollar gains at the moment.

Of course I can always be wrong and it's happened plenty of times before () so we need to watch out for what would break this count... For me that would be a break above 1.3757 EURUSD, 0.9300 USDCHF and 80.23 USDJPY... Cable's a different kettle of fish...

If you want to see more info I have put together a couple of introduction videos on http://www.harmonic-ewave.com/Videos.html though the example is the DJIA...

Good luck
Ian

Ian,


i`m still looking of the 78.6% retracement (1.3987) for wave “b” of the flat pattern which started on 4th of nov last year:


http://img15.imageshack.us/i/deurusd90281.gif/


Sixer

Who knows, I could be wrong. However, I've given you the exact reasoning with ratios for my wave count. It would be nice to have your wave count in the lower degree with ratios.

One question if I may... Do you normally see a Wave c of an expanded flat moving above the prior Wave b?

Hi,

your last I ist longer than your last III and a little 2 correcture. It looks very ugly and does not correspond to the EW theory. In the EW theory isn't the wave 3 the smallest wave. Normally the wave 3 ist the longest wave.

In picture one is my daily count.

In picture two is my hourly count.

It may be that the b wave is really already done, but it may be that we have finished the first 3 of the C and here we are 4 now. For A = 1.3822 C which corresponds to a beautiful ZIGZAG pattern. I think we will not see the wheels with price than 1.3850.

MasterBO,


-my count in post# 5128 as flat pattern mainly based on the cycle count – the numbers with the same colour are belonging to the same price pattern:


http://img708.imageshack.us/i/deurusd2d281.gif/


-i know that wave “iii” is normally the longest one but check the other possibilities for impulse pattern:


http://img267.imageshack.us/i/96610558.gif/


Sixer


P.S. Schau Dich mal auf der Seite, die in Bild 2 aufgeführt ist, weiter um !

of course it's still works..common man..be positive..hehehe..if u r not a perfectionist..

Impressive wave counting, Ian. I ordered your new book a few weeks ago and am looking forward to learning more. I'm new to EW but I believe it has merit at picking tops and bottoms...and ride the middle
Thanks for contributing and sharing here.

Good trading to all!

ant-

Ian, what is your present view of the Dow Jones?

I think it's going to top out between 12,285-12,335 over the coming 1-2 weeks... Look for 10K+ ...

Just wanted to let you good folk know that I'm about to get tied up for a while - first organizing & presenting an HEW training webinar, then an overseas trip and when I get back a move of house... Therefore apologies if I don't appear that often!

Good luck with all your projects, Ian.

Just be sure to drop in here whenever you can.

Thanks for all your input.

drop by whneevr u can..best of luck for the webminar