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  • #3,201
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:03pm Jan 26, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting pmn100
Thanks. Good PA setups have been lacking this week imo.

I too saw that 4H on silver, but too late to trade. Thought it was good for those bar lows as well.
Yeah Pa and touch trade setups have been lacking definitely.

I missed the 1HR BEOB (otherwise it would have been a BE trade), but took the 4HR one and cut it @ -0.75R as it was obvious it was gonna go and hit my SL. A big turnaround in metals and oil today.

Just one of those things, it hurtts as I dont like losing on PA or touch trade setups, but just gotta accept it and move on.
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  • #3,202
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:08pm Jan 26, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting squeezy
definately not for the faint hearted, dnt think ill advice it though but its up to the individual.
about...
Thanks, it's an interesting strategy and one I'm keen on looking at in more detail...will hopefully find some time over the weekend to look back over some charts (it's all about the chart time )

Thanks for sharing.
  • #3,203
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:09pm Jan 26, 2011 4:09pm
Stated my results earlier, only current positions are short EP and short AU (AU from parity and EP form just under double top).
  • #3,204
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:18pm Jan 26, 2011 4:18pm
argh I meant 9 month since you started this thread.

Best of luck!
I found a penny today. That's +100 pips for me.
  • #3,205
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:31pm Jan 26, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting ReaM
argh I meant 9 month since you started this thread.

Best of luck!
Ah ok.

Well if you're reading through it then can you count up the weekly results along the way for me
  • #3,206
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:32pm Jan 26, 2011 8:32pm
Hello, Mr. lovejoy80!,

I stumbled upon your thread while searching for a trading journal template.

In case you still had regret regarding the subject trade... ;-)

I was intrigued by the idea of generating 35% ROA in one trade, so I disected the trade.

My compliments on an incredible entry. I am guessing that you put a limit entry at the rising uptend line. I don't have intraday data handy for that day but the only other way I can see that kind of an entry happening would be to take it on a lower time frame.

I would not be able to have placed a limit order at the uptrend line with only a 7 pip stop. But if we are talking ROA, then the trade size has to be calculated based on the true risk and for that we need a stop. In fact, this trade came within 1.5 pips or less of stopping out, at the entry.

Anyway, on the issue of the add on the BUOB. The BUOB was a 55pip bar so the 1% risk on that trade would have been much smaller size than the initial trade calculated on a 7 pip stop. In fact, about 1/8 the size.

I do agree that if you looked at the higher time frames, particularly the daily, you could have expected that it was ready to swing back up to the descending MAs. I calculate that the original trade would have returned 34.8% on an average of 116 pips if the risk was 2% initially and if you took the exits you proposed for the larger time frame targets.

My thanks to you, this was a real eye opener to me. I looked only two or three minutes to find a similar trade in recent history so that I could see the entry on a lower time frame.

On 13 Jan 2011,1730 GMT, one could have entered the UCAD, on a 1 minute chart double bottom at .98616. Or more conservatively you could enter .9862, three minutes later, each with a stop at .9856, below the previous touch of the 1 hour trend of higher lows. The similar logic as your trade. So, a 6 pip stop. Based on a daily push up the the 20 ma, tgts could have been 9932, 9946, 9965 or 9982. The last wasn't acheived but the least, based on a 4 hour pin and the line of downtrending tops on the daily chart yielded 70 pips on a 6 pip risk for 11R. An ROA of 23%.

I think I will try to be a more patient and selective "daytrader."

Archie



Quoting lovejoy80
Just been ding some review on trades. Obviously happy with the account growth but that doesn't mean I haven't made mistakes...I feel you are always learning and improving as a trader and the best way to learn is to actually put your knowledge into action and trade and then review your trades and learn from mistakes.

My two biggest mistakes were on xxx/JPY which I've already mentioned previously and the second one on U/C.

Towards the end of the week I was entering too many trades, rushing my analysis...probably reading FF threads too much and...
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  • #3,207
  • Jan 27, 2011 3:51pm Jan 27, 2011 3:51pm
Another day with a lack of clean setups...price action is very choppy right now ahead of US 4th Quarter GDP tomorrow.

I took a loss on my EP short from yesterday so lost 1R today.

But on the upside I have some nice positions in AU (I'll cmoe onto this in the next post) and also am short GU, haivng got stoppe dout on UCHF long, UC long and EU short at BE earlier...I'm very muhc position trading / swing trading at the moment.

I'm still gutted by my loss on Silver yesterday...the only day this week it put i a reversal and I shorted it...wa very peculiar action on the precious metals befrore FOMC...now it is back down to where I shorted it yesterday!

A daily close below 26.40 and that monthly BEOB looks like we could be in for a decent sell off in the metals...when something goes up like that its gonna come down even harder (elastic band affect) and the metals and commdoties in general have risen too fast IMO and with china tightening monetary policy (interest rate hike next week?) this is the perfect time for commodities to come back down. I only follow Silver, Gold and Oil...and all three look very bearish to me...gold having formed a BEOB on the daily TF today...if it can break the weekly rising TL it should be heading to 1265, oil looks to be heading to 83.60.

I've missed the boat with these a bit , especailly with silver and Gold, but willbe looking for any lower TF setups / pullbacks to load up on shorts.
  • #3,208
  • Jan 27, 2011 4:11pm Jan 27, 2011 4:11pm
I'm holding two shorts in AU one at parity and one @ 0.9940.

The reason being is that the parity level has acted as strong resistance this week, it's a line in the sand for AU for the current move IMO. On the lower TF's there has been bearish PA each time price has approached this area (pin, BEOB, 2HR BEOB). Finally, price broke 0.99500 support forming a BEOB in the process and duly came back to retest this area as resistance (which is where I added the second position).

My initial target for my trades is the 0.9835 support area, but if things work out I'll be looking to hold as if commodities do contoinue to drop then I could see aU falling further (especially if the Chinese do raise interest rates next week).

It woud help if we got some USD strength across the board and this is most likely to occur of equities fall (last time Dow was up 9 weeks in a row was 1995! and it hit the 12k figure yesterday and S&P hit 1300 today - both important areas) - YM and EP are both starting to look bearish...but whether this is a minor move or the start of something bigger remains to be seen. (the USD / equities correlation is not a strong as it was last year as things are generally more complicated than risk on / risk off at the moment but it still represents the best chance of sustained USD strength).

Thsis how I'm reading price action at the moment and I'm hoping we wont get any retracements before or at GDP news tomorrow...but things can change suddenly in FX so I'll be ready to change my mind if needed.
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  • #3,209
  • Jan 27, 2011 5:04pm Jan 27, 2011 5:04pm
Thank you for sharing LoveJoy. I have not even taken a trade this year. I have seen some decent set-ups pass, but I agree with there not being much good price action right now.

Seems like everything just chops, then explodes in less than an hour for most of the day's move, then chops around again.
  • #3,210
  • Jan 27, 2011 5:57pm Jan 27, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I'm holding two shorts in AU one at parity and one @ 0.9940.

The reason being is that the parity level has acted as strong resistance this week, it's a line in the sand for AU for the current move IMO. On the lower TF's there has been bearish PA each time price has approached this area (pin, BEOB, 2HR BEOB). Finally, price broke 0.99500 support forming a BEOB in the process and duly came back to retest this area as resistance (which is where I added the second position).
I'm short aussie too at almost identical levels and agree it just doesn't look comfortable above parity.... further to the recent resistance we've seen I can almost count the days it's been above parity on both hands.... not a good sign.

I could easily see 95 coming but I like your logic around getting a push from some usd strength emanating from an equity sell off.

We shall see..... end of January already and no clear picture has prevailed for 2011 - maybe short hards long softs?
  • #3,211
  • Jan 28, 2011 12:57am Jan 28, 2011 12:57am
Quoting unlv_tj
Thank you for sharing LoveJoy. I have not even taken a trade this year. I have seen some decent set-ups pass, but I agree with there not being much good price action right now.

Seems like everything just chops, then explodes in less than an hour for most of the day's move, then chops around again.
Yes there has beena lack of decent PA setups at the moment IMO. I have missed a few good trades though too, Gold, Silver, NU, AUDNZD PA setups spring to mind.

Also missed a couple of good touch trade setups this week...been very much concentrating on the USD and just watching the CHF and JPY pairs but these two after the GBP sell off were good setups...and even gave PA on the lower TF's...these are my favourite types of setups , touch trades based on the daily TF PPZ.
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  • #3,212
  • Jan 28, 2011 8:10am Jan 28, 2011 8:10am
Quoting unlv_tj
I have not even taken a trade this year.
Wow, how come you've taken no trades...it has been pretty dfficult at times to spot the great setups to the 'false signals' and so-so setups but there certainly have been some really good PA and touch trade setups this year...if I were take only the best setups I thinkg off the top of my head I might have taken 7-10 trades this year I reckon.
  • #3,213
  • Jan 28, 2011 8:31am Jan 28, 2011 8:31am
Quoting abdunbar
Hello, Mr. lovejoy80!,

I stumbled upon your thread while searching for a trading journal template.

In case you still had regret regarding the subject trade... ;-)

I was intrigued by the idea of generating 35% ROA in one trade, so I disected the trade.

My compliments on an incredible entry. I am guessing that you put a limit entry at the rising uptend line. I don't have intraday data handy for that day but the only other way I can see that kind of an entry happening would be to take it on a lower time frame.

I...
Obviously the best and most rewarding trades are the ones that generate the biggest ROI. Personally I find the best way to find these is either PA at confluenced areas based on the higher TF's or pure touch trades.

The GCHF and GJ potential touch trades or PA trades posted earlier were classic examples of this. They were clear obvious setus for touch trades involving very clear daily PPZ's (which would be very key for me) and additional confluence.

As an example if you took the PA your trades would like have been :

GJ entry @ 129.88, SL@ 129.45 (including buffer and assuming non-ECN spreads)

GCHF entry @ 1.4900, SL@ 1.4860

There were obvious targets on these, GJ at the daily TL and PPZ @ 132.10
and GCHF at the 1st time back to the former support area @ 1.5100 - it should be no surprise that price reversed at these areas.

These trades would have yielded 5.16R and 5R respectively.

For these sort of trades I risk 3-4% of my account on...why, because they are very high probability technical setups...if an area has the right confluence based around a daily PPZ (and as long as the markets aren't in meltdown or driven by deep fear) then I would expect a reaction every time at all A+ touch trade setups that I identify...some will just have the reaction before the trend that exisited before the touch trade continues (i.e. you will get a reaction so you can cut your risk to near zero) whilst others will take off and not look back.

If I had to teach one trading method to anyone it would be touch trades / lower TF (15min-1HR) PA at great confluenced areas on the daily TF. If you have the patience, discpline just by taking these types of trades your account will grow very fast IMO ... and they are straight forward to manage most of the time...moe SL to BE after the initial reaction and look at daily TF for an obvious TP and leave it.
  • #3,214
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:04am Jan 28, 2011 9:04am
Great charts and recap LJ, I really appreciate it.
  • #3,215
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:09am Jan 28, 2011 10:09am
just some trades
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,216
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:15am Jan 28, 2011 10:15am
Quoting lovejoy80
Wow, how come you've taken no trades...it has been pretty dfficult at times to spot the great setups to the 'false signals' and so-so setups but there certainly have been some really good PA and touch trade setups this year...if I were take only the best setups I thinkg off the top of my head I might have taken 7-10 trades this year I reckon.
Yea, I am still working to get better at this, and one thing I seem to have accomplished is patience. If I don't understand a set-up I don't take it.

But the trades you post are beautiful, and I understand them in hind sight, but I didn't see them coming.

Lots of work to do
  • #3,217
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:21am Jan 28, 2011 10:21am
Quoting squeezy
just some trades
Nice

I've been waiting patiently for the inevitable move that was going to occur...
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  • #3,218
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:32am Jan 28, 2011 10:32am
Quoting lovejoy80
Nice

I've been waiting patiently for the inevitable move that was going to occur...
ha! love ur e-mini entry ....... lol
nice trading Mark
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #3,219
  • Jan 28, 2011 12:07pm Jan 28, 2011 12:07pm
Read the market pretty well this week what with calling for a turnaround in equities and USD strength...it sure has some symmentry that Dow and S&P turned around at 12,000 and 1,300!

I'm closing down for the day soon and thus have taken some profit and left some trades open.

I've had plenty of trades close at BE over the last 2 days as I've been trying to get some positons trades in place on USD pair shorts, but these were the ones that weren't BE:

1. EP short @ 1293.75, SL @ 1300 - leaving this positon at BE
2. EP short @ 1288, SL @ 1300, TP @ 1275.75 +1R
3. EU short @ 1.3715 SL @ 1.3766, TP @ 1.3600 +2.35R
4. EU short @ 1.3695, SL @ 1.3766 TP @ 1.3600 +1.34R
5. AU short @ 1.0000 SL@ @ 1.0040. TP @ 0.9930 +1.75R
6. AU short @ 0.9980 SL @ 1.0010 TP @ 0.9930 +1.33R
7. GU short @ 1.5910 SL @ 1.5968 - leaving this position at BE
8 UJ long @ 82.12 SL @ 81.90 - out at BE

Total for today +7.77R

Weekly totals - 18 winning trades (out of 23 total) +11.32R
  • #3,220
  • Jan 28, 2011 12:07pm Jan 28, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting sam0182
Great charts and recap LJ, I really appreciate it.
Thanks
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