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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #22,601
  • Jan 27, 2011 7:22pm Jan 27, 2011 7:22pm
Two very nice posts auxesis. Why have you tried to remove yourself from discussions in the thread, you're always very lucid and helpful?

I have Hill's bar chart "book" but I haven't started studying it yet....I must catch up with some of the required reading soon.

-----

I have been up all bl**dy night waiting for JPY to move like it just did...I'm going to stop entering into trades too late at night as I always seem to get stuck in them for hours.
  • #22,602
  • Jan 27, 2011 7:30pm Jan 27, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting Nverstop
Anyone feel like this method is a bit like being a ant trying to constantly dodge a gigantic steamroller and with one wrong rescue you'll be flattened?
IMO, I think you are approaching this the wrong way. Rescue is a sexy seductress that will lead to heartache and trouble if you study it before you master PA and attack. I've seen traders here try to rescue a trade when, in reality, they have missed a change in market movement and PA, and should have flipped/attacked a change in trend. Do you know how to assess a mis-timed entry versus a trend change? First things first, don't jump ahead. fti has given you a lot to learn, so take your time to get it right.

Edit: OK, I just read auxesis's posts and like his much more than mine. Sorry...
  • #22,603
  • Jan 27, 2011 8:03pm Jan 27, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting Nverstop

The conservative attack skew is rubbish I think in the long run. If one is going to have a rescue sequence that is fairly aggressive one must also have a strong attack skew or otherwise as FTI has said just doing rescues won't be worth the effort. Might as well practice strong attack skews on demo no reason to use conservative ones when in the long run weak attack skews combined with aggressive rescues will certainly be counterproductive.
One last thing, demoing is great for the mechanics, I encourage it, but there's a time when you have to try on the emotional aspects of the trade. Several factors come into play, mainly trust in yourself to handle the trade when upsizing position size, so when you start with real funds downsize the scout/troop size, while using a more aggressive skew to begin, and then increase position size as your mindset allows..... remember when your outside your comfort zone, logic will be flawed, sometimes unknown to you as it happens, so stretch your zone in stages.

regards,
  • #22,604
  • Edited 10:57pm Jan 27, 2011 10:39pm | Edited 10:57pm
Hi all,

just let you know, i will be away at the hospital.
Nothing serious, they just want me under observations for a wihle.
I think they want put me in isolation.
No more freedom.

Be back as soon as i can. Meanwhile please take good care of Barbara & Samantha.

Love , peace and Good Fortune.
regards

Inserted Video
  • #22,605
  • Jan 28, 2011 12:47am Jan 28, 2011 12:47am
Samantha and Barbara will be well cared . Come back quickly!
  • #22,606
  • Jan 28, 2011 2:06am Jan 28, 2011 2:06am
Quoting MaMood
hmmh - yeah I know that's strange. :-)
But that will be my secret till I die
Maybe Jessica Alba can help you with that question
I think not even jessica could help out here

and beside lately my favorite become megan fox

there are too many, beautiful girls, out there from where you can choose
  • #22,607
  • Jan 28, 2011 2:16am Jan 28, 2011 2:16am
Quoting fti
Hi all,

just let you know, i will be away at the hospital.
Nothing serious, they just want me under observations for a wihle.
I think they want put me in isolation.
No more freedom.

Be back as soon as i can. Meanwhile please take good care of Barbara & Samantha

Love , peace and Good Fortune.
regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1ypn0y32Ac

you are fortunate enough you will have part of other nurses, just be gentle with them.

and don't forget to tell them that the only medicine left for you is trading, so they must watch out with the isolation.

just take your time slowly

God bless you

all the best!

Inserted Video
  • #22,608
  • Jan 28, 2011 4:52am Jan 28, 2011 4:52am
Quoting auxesis
I have tried to remove myself from discussions in the thread, but will chime in this once with my own interpretation, others may have their own, the one to seek advice is FTI when he's up and feeling able (will say it's good to have you back amongst the living, FTI... you are an object of answered prayer).

Conservative skews are great for dancing with training wheels, but the skew can be much more geared on the attack side when timing is correct....
Thank you, really great post
  • #22,609
  • Jan 28, 2011 5:23am Jan 28, 2011 5:23am
Quoting auxesis
I have tried to remove myself from discussions in the thread, but will chime in this once with my own interpretation, others may have their own, the one to seek advice is FTI when he's up and feeling able (will say it's good to have you back amongst the living, FTI... you are an object of answered prayer).

Conservative skews are great for dancing with training wheels, but the skew can be much more geared on the attack side when timing is correct....
Great post Auxesis!

This one goes to my collections of great posts from FF

Cheers
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #22,610
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:52am Jan 28, 2011 10:52am
Guys, some revolution is going on in Egypt, guns and tanks already working there, seems serious:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...70O3UW20110128
  • #22,611
  • Jan 28, 2011 11:09am Jan 28, 2011 11:09am
Thanks for the link. Seems to be unsettling the market at the moment.

I also meant to agree with this comment you made a few days ago. I have personal experience of this and you are right, flipping can be a killer in the circumstances that you describe.

Quoting imjscn
I understand there are different MOs. I just want to address this issue-- the cost of flipping is big enough for us to consider carefully. Especially for small accounts traders. If capital not allow skew up on each flipping, or range small, flipping kills.
  • #22,612
  • Jan 28, 2011 11:22am Jan 28, 2011 11:22am
I also paid the price myself.
Chief normally say "turn" instead of "flip", that means a lot.
If "turn", that's the trend, or overwhelming flow.
  • #22,613
  • Edited 1:55pm Jan 28, 2011 1:28pm | Edited 1:55pm
Hi Friends,

a snippet from the book "The way of the peaceful Warrior" by Dan Millman.
The book was recommended by a very kind member of TAF family. He seems to be very wise as well :-)


[...]


Soc took an old dictionary from his drawer and held it in the air.

"Use whatever knowledge you have but see its limitations. Knowledge alone does not suffice; it has no heart. No amount of knowledge will nourish or sustain your spirit; it can never bring you ultimate happiness or peace. Life requires more than knowledge; it requires intense feeling and constant energy. Life demands right action if knowledge is to come alive."


"I know that, Soc."


"That's your problem---you know but you don't act. You're not a warrior."

"Socrates, I just can't believe that. I know at times I've acted like a warrior, when the pressure was really on--you should see me in the gym!"


"Granted that you may, in fact, experience the mind of a warrior on occasion; resolute, flexible, clear, and free of doubt. You can develop the body of a warrior, lithe, supple, sensitive, and filled with energy. In rare moments, you may even feel the heart of a warrior, loving everything and everyone who appears before you. But these qualities are fragmented in you. You lack integration. My

task is to put you back together again, Humpty."

[...]

"When you become fully responsible for your life, you can become fully human; once you become human, you may discover what it means to be a warrior."

[...]

Hey friends,
isnt't that exactly what fti tries to teach us here?
  • #22,614
  • Jan 29, 2011 7:55am Jan 29, 2011 7:55am
Hi MaMood,
Thx for sending the flowers for us to show our care and good wish to Fti sir! Sorry I missed that.
Congratulations for your contest achievement! Keep up the good work! Let Fti sir be proud of you!
Regards.
Sakatalight
  • #22,615
  • Edited 6:53pm Jan 29, 2011 8:01am | Edited 6:53pm
Good afternoon Fti sir,
Today I rushed through the latest pages of our TAF thread. I am very happy you are getting better and in good mood!
You mentioned visiting china a couple of times. I sincerely wish you can do that. Seeing china with your own eyes. A rising china from the last fall about 150 years ago, where there is hope, smile and confidence. China’s development is amazingly fast! Today we are almost a nation behind the wheel instead of a kingdom of bicycles. It’s even unimaginable 10 years ago. But still a developing country, experiencing growing pains.
If you do visit china, I will do my best to help with the trip. And I want to see the great man who helped so many, including me in our community.
But now it’s time for you to rest and recuperate. So I give you some links you can check out to get an idea about what china is like now. sorry about the simplified chinese, it will make your reading a little difficult.
http://msnphoto.eastday.com/china/index.html
http://chinapic.people.com.cn/
http://china.huanqiu.com/photo/
BTW the pic of yours, very cute!
About my learning, I made quite some progress lately. I’m very happy！if I can keep it up, I will go live-trading soon. Again without your teachings and effort, I can’t do this. So many thanks again from the bottom of my heart! I’m eternally in your debt. Sir.
Wish you a speedy recovery and look forward to seeing you join us again soon!
Regards.
Sakatalight
  • #22,616
  • Jan 29, 2011 11:49am Jan 29, 2011 11:49am
Quoting jest1081

everyone, how do you do!

Well wishes and a happy new year!
jest, very glad to see you again !!

.
  • #22,617
  • Jan 29, 2011 12:34pm Jan 29, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting imjscn
Niels, perhaps it's because you were not in the market these couple of days, you didn't experience it on real time.

I got caught on eur short position too. Currently running around 50 pips loss.

Would it be better if I nimble enough to flip?

Not really. Yesterday's daily range is about 127 pips. If watch history chart, it's only one down leg and one up leg.

If you were trading yesterday, you can smell the blood-- 6 "chances" for fliping. If I did fliping, my account lost half already, each fliping "chance" provided another "chance" for...
After 24 hours 3 sessions of time have elapsed.

Now paraphrasing AOW chapter- if the campaign is protracted...resources will not be equal to the strain.
The idea of entering every session and being exposed to a different set of circumstances ie. different levels, different open/close/high/low, and not losing control has also helped me.
Every session being just a bit different and unto itself.
Good weekend all.

Edit: for entertainment, a nice collection of documentaries
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/
  • #22,618
  • Edited 9:33pm Jan 29, 2011 6:49pm | Edited 9:33pm
hi jest1081,
glad to see you are back! happy new year!


hi everyone,
i am a senior member now!


regards.
  • #22,619
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:43am Jan 30, 2011 5:43am
Quoting sakatalight
...
hi everyone,
i am a senior member now!
...
Congratulations

hello jest, as well!

Quoting triger88990
I think not even jessica could help out here
and beside lately my favorite become megan fox
...
hahah..
there is a pattern forming with your choices.
i believe we like the same type, so i wouldn't wanna be living near you
  • #22,620
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:15am Jan 30, 2011 8:15am
Quoting jacson101
After 24 hours 3 sessions of time have elapsed.

Now paraphrasing AOW chapter- if the campaign is protracted...resources will not be equal to the strain.
The idea of entering every session and being exposed to a different set of circumstances ie. different levels, different open/close/high/low, and not losing control has also helped me.
Every session being just a bit different and unto itself.
Good weekend all.

Edit: for entertainment, a nice collection of documentaries
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/
Mind refreshing...
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