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Attachments: Trend Following - A Complete Guide
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Trend Following - A Complete Guide

  • #241
  • Jan 16, 2011 4:54pm Jan 16, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting Jungles
Hi Macardo

how do you deal with weekends, close open positions, leave open, treat each position individually?

thanks
Hi Jungles,

To be honest I really don't pay to much attention to the weekends. What I try not to do is open positions late on a Friday as you never know what could happen over the weekend and Friday afternoon doesn't give the markets all that much time to move.

But in general aside from stepping aside on a Friday afternoon, I just enjoy my weekend and come to my charts Sunday night to plan my trades for the week :-)
  • #242
  • Jan 16, 2011 4:58pm Jan 16, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting pipfarm
Hi Micardo,


thanks for your replies ,

can i just confirm the reason for trading the GBPCHF pair, the daily is in a down trend with the last swing up being a retracement against the current downtrend and you have dropped down to the 4 hour to take a closer look at the retracement to find an entry.


thanks

pipfarm

Hi Pipfarm,

Yup that is about the size of it. However having said that I am not looking for a long entry on the 4 hour chart. Technically we are still in a downtrend on the daily but the momentum has been quite pronounced over the last few days and I am slightly more bullish on the pound going into the next week. Of course nothing has set up yet so I am quite flexible, if the market wants to go back down I will sell it as well :-)
  • #243
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:00pm Jan 16, 2011 5:00pm
ok, a hypothetical for you

you open a trade on Wednesday with a TP of say +150,
by Friday afternoon it sits at just +50

even if you are still confident re the TP,
would you be inclined to close the position before friday end or hold over the weekend?

thanks
  • #244
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:00pm Jan 16, 2011 5:00pm
Quoting pipfarm
AUDUSD


A picture says a thousand words


pipfarm

Nice trade :-)
  • #245
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:01pm Jan 16, 2011 5:01pm
Sorry, haven't read the thread. Just wondering if you're still trading or using any of the methods involved with the daily range strategy we discussed back in 2008. Might have something to add to the trend discussion.

Good to see another regular posting again.
  • #246
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:07pm Jan 16, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting Jungles
ok, a hypothetical for you

you open a trade on Wednesday with a TP of say +150,
by Friday afternoon it sits at just +50

even if you are still confident re the TP,
would you be inclined to close the position before friday end or hold over the weekend?

thanks

Man or machine response :-)

OK as a human being of course I don't want to see a trade turn into a loser, so I would probably move my stop to break even. However I would be fully aware that I could get stopped out early on this trade only to later see it turn into the winner I first anticipated.

However if you were a machine the correct answer is to leave it as it is. You entered and calculated your risk which you were happy with when you first entered and hence should be happy with now. You are trading probabilities and nothing else and hence you need to let the numbers play it out.

Truthfully we can all sit here and preach the text book answers, but when it comes to the real thing in the trenches it can be quite different. Of course you assess each situation individually (what are you expecting over the weekend etc)

I know that isn't a black and white answer but unfortunately trading is not always black and white, we are human beings and have emotions.

So my best piece of advice would be to assess your risk at the time and if you really feel compelled to protect yourself, move your stop to breakeven.
  • #247
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:12pm Jan 16, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting permanentjaun
Sorry, haven't read the thread. Just wondering if you're still trading or using any of the methods involved with the daily range strategy we discussed back in 2008. Might have something to add to the trend discussion.

Good to see another regular posting again.

Hey,

No unfortunately I am not. I am not sure if it is profitable or not, but I moved away from set and forget systems. I really prefer watching the price action and reacting accordingly.

A variation of that strategy could be to play the london/european breakouts. That way you are getting the most from the daily range but also allowing price action to confirm....

Maybe that is something I should research, as that mught just be another string to the bow so to speak :-)

What are you trading now?
  • #248
  • Jan 16, 2011 5:12pm Jan 16, 2011 5:12pm
thanks for taking the time Micardo,
my trend strategy is only just taking shape, so still tweaking

regards
  • #249
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:04pm Jan 16, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting Micardo

What are you trading now?
Nothing as of right now. I took some time off to try and start my own business, but it didn't get off the ground. Back to square one at the moment.
  • #250
  • Jan 17, 2011 11:48pm Jan 17, 2011 11:48pm
Hi Micardo,

I've taken some trades on the cable history based on some of your guide lines. Would you be kind enough to view it and comment.

Much appreciated

Forex Sim

Inserted Video
  • #251
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:25am Jan 19, 2011 10:25am
Quoting ForexSimVids
Hi Micardo,

I've taken some trades on the cable history based on some of your guide lines. Would you be kind enough to view it and comment.

Much appreciated

Forex Sim

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS6s6JISEs8
Hi ForexSimVids,

Thank you for your video and for putting in the effort to learn this stuff.

What I would say about what I saw is that yes it did turn out to be a trending market which will always shake out trend followers but you did also miss an entry or two as well as taking an entry that for me didn't seem to be an entry at all. So you are sort of on the right track but I think you aren't being picky enough about your trades. I believe it was the second trade that you took which was a buy and got stopped out. When I looked at this I couldn't really see the 1-2-3 pattern as such, there was a pull back but it wasn't really very clean if you know what I mean.

Trend Following is difficult, it is volatile and if you get caught in a ranging market you will get whipped about all over the place. The y key is keeping your losers smaller enough so you can survive long enough to take those big winners. The other things is to decide whether you want to swing trade in the direction of the trend which means taking regular small profits or actually follow the trend which means taking regular small profits and then every now and then a big win.

Psychologically trend following in its truest form is very difficult and is something that you really need to test on decades of data in order to build up the confidence to trade it properly. You MUST take every good setup otherwise you run the risk of missing that big winner that doesn't come around so often.

Anyway I think I got a little bit off topic. Your video is good but I think your setups need refining.

I will try to put up a video in the next few days to show a testing session like yours where we identify the setups and see what happens...

Thanks

Micardo
  • #252
  • Jan 23, 2011 11:28pm Jan 23, 2011 11:28pm
HI Micardo,

thank you for your reply.

Why don't we do a screen sharing session. We would use the simulator. You would have access to my screen and could make corrections to what I see. I could record it and post.

Would any of you guys want to see a live session with Micardo?

I think a lot of us would benefit from it.

It would be awesome of you.

Kind regards

Daniel
  • #253
  • Jan 23, 2011 11:37pm Jan 23, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting ForexSimVids
...Would any of you guys want to see a live session with Micardo?...
Not after that video!
  • #254
  • Jan 23, 2011 11:54pm Jan 23, 2011 11:54pm
Quoting Phreddy
Not after that video!
thanks for the encouragement
  • #255
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:20pm Jan 25, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting ForexSimVids
HI Micardo,

thank you for your reply.

Why don't we do a screen sharing session. We would use the simulator. You would have access to my screen and could make corrections to what I see. I could record it and post.

Would any of you guys want to see a live session with Micardo?

I think a lot of us would benefit from it.

It would be awesome of you.

Kind regards

Daniel
Why not? I look forward to it.
  • #256
  • Jan 25, 2011 11:37pm Jan 25, 2011 11:37pm
I can understand Phreddy. I record these vids at 5am when my wife and daughter are asleep and I need to keep my voice down. This results in a boring sounding voice.

I'll do the interview during a weekend or a day off so my voice will be normal and a bit more lively I promise
  • #257
  • Jan 26, 2011 6:19pm Jan 26, 2011 6:19pm
Hi Everyone,

Sorry I haven't been about this week, I have just been really busy and by the time I get second to myself, it is about time to sleep :-).

IN anycase I hope you are all well and have take a few of the moves that have happened recently. Namely the EURAUD off of the 1.3355 level, the EUR/USD on a break about the 1.3434 level and finally the GBP/CHF off of the 1.5411 level.

I am in all of them at the moment although the GBP/CHF isn't looking to healthy at this second and I am just about to get stopped out of an AUD/USD trade a took a little while back :-)

@ForexSimsVideo let me know when you want to do this and we can set up a web conference.

If anyone else wants to join in please let me know and we will organize something.

Speak to you all soon.

Micardo
  • #258
  • Jan 26, 2011 11:55pm Jan 26, 2011 11:55pm
Quoting Micardo
Hi Everyone,

Sorry I haven't been about this week, I have just been really busy and by the time I get second to myself, it is about time to sleep :-).

IN anycase I hope you are all well and have take a few of the moves that have happened recently. Namely the EURAUD off of the 1.3355 level, the EUR/USD on a break about the 1.3434 level and finally the GBP/CHF off of the 1.5411 level.

I am in all of them at the moment although the GBP/CHF isn't looking to healthy at this second and I am just about to get stopped out of an AUD/USD trade a...
Micardo, first thank you for your selfless efforts, they are appreciated. I would love to participate in the conference.
JLC
  • #259
  • Jan 27, 2011 12:47am Jan 27, 2011 12:47am
Quoting Micardo
Hi Everyone,

@ForexSimsVideo let me know when you want to do this and we can set up a web conference.

If anyone else wants to join in please let me know and we will organize something.

Speak to you all soon.

Micardo
Hi Micardo & ForexSims, i'd love to join your web conference so please keep me in mind.

Thanks.

Tritan
  • #260
  • Jan 27, 2011 12:55am Jan 27, 2011 12:55am
Quoting Micardo
Hi Everyone,

Sorry I haven't been about this week, I have just been really busy and by the time I get second to myself, it is about time to sleep :-).

IN anycase I hope you are all well and have take a few of the moves that have happened recently. Namely the EURAUD off of the 1.3355 level, the EUR/USD on a break about the 1.3434 level and finally the GBP/CHF off of the 1.5411 level.

I am in all of them at the moment although the GBP/CHF isn't looking to healthy at this second and I am just about to get stopped out of an AUD/USD trade a took a...
Thanks you Micardo for offering your time and please also count me in.
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