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vsa with Malcolm

  • #10,641
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:36am Jan 26, 2011 8:36am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
what you currently see does not mean that much. be prepared to get shaken around big amounts on each side later when the fomc meets. until this meeting is done, i give my best to stay out of markets so stop sniffing won't happen to me.
Hi Dr.G,

I didn't took any trade today as well, the euro was so weird during london...
I must admit that it is frustrating to look at the charts and wait for price to drop a little further before considering going long again on the eur.

Mel
  • #10,642
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:38am Jan 26, 2011 8:38am
such events like the fomc can change the market direction...what if potential rate hikes might be announced. one can never know what the crooks are up to, so best is to stay out and reevaluate when the produced show is over.
  • #10,643
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:43am Jan 26, 2011 8:43am
Quoting tgwhbb
we seem to be getting some good volume now at 3660-70 area - which was solid resistance yesterday. Let's see if it's now solid support. Also the hourly chart is coming off on lowering volume, so we may be nearing a possible pop up? Not a very exciting today so far so something must be brewing.
Not sure I see that volume ... really hard to see anything of prominence. I'd lean more towards the rallies in EURUSD being sold through London, and regions of ND as it drifts lower. I like to look at EURJPY and I see the same thing, a little more there. On the eSignal chart, look at the volume from the right, the first highest downthrust was (potentially) bought, but then within hours, we comfortably sailed below that point - that looks like distribution (and No Demand) to me.

No doubt a disappointing last few sessions; my GBPUSD call hasn't yet materialized, so I'm thinking the weeks of buying aren't over yet, as GBP has held on in light of crappy fundamental news that would normally have dire consequences - and then throw in the retardedness of BOE utterring 'possible rate hike' and all is well? (A rate hike which would have a nail-in-coffin effect for UK, but what do I know).

Can't help but think FOMC could give the spike to Dow 12K, S&P 1300, and make a correlative pop with EU & GU, but then a selloff, perhaps gradually over the days. Although POMO goes to June, the floor guys and everyone with a stake lives in fear of the correction, and frankly, to get to June without one at a meaningful threshold is dreamland. But certainly agree with you, a crappy few sessions, non sensical in most ways, and largely void of real movement. Usually when that's the case, something gives.
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  • #10,644
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:58am Jan 26, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Beljevina
Not sure I see that volume ... really hard to see anything of prominence. I
ok, maybe 'good volume' was a bit exaggerated but generally i'm seeing decreasing volume as EU moves down, with some small volume spikes on down bars that close off the low. So looks like some buying, but nothing that really stands out. So i'm sitting on my hands for now...
Change is the only constant
  • #10,645
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:20am Jan 26, 2011 9:20am
OK, the DPP got bought, S&P targeting up too. Not looking like a free ride - seems like not everyone agrees. Am not looking for lots here, will scale out 1.369/1.37
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  • #10,646
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:22am Jan 26, 2011 9:22am
Quoting Beljevina
OK, the DPP got bought, S&P targeting up too. Not looking like a free ride - seems like not everyone agrees. Am not looking for lots here, will scale out 1.369/1.37
i may miss the trade, but waiting to see if that volume actually stops the down move, waiting for a higher low.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,647
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:43am Jan 26, 2011 9:43am
I thought I would post a trade I just entered in a different pair. This is the GBPCHF which I am liking more and more every day, the trade should be obvious (short). Do we take out yesterdays lows? I think a retest is highly probable.
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  • #10,648
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:46am Jan 26, 2011 9:46am
On another note, where the heck is Intel?
  • #10,649
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:55am Jan 26, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Plata
Did you use trendlines or some kind of box-count?
Hi Plata, a vertical box count was used, based on 10 pips a box and a 3 box reversal chart. Vertical counts are quicker to calculate and here's the thing once you know how to calculate them you don't actually need to keep an up to date chart, you just need to be able to identify tops and bottoms from where to take your count

Good charting!
  • #10,650
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:56am Jan 26, 2011 9:56am
Hello Sonofsin5,
here you go..
Quoting Intel
Hi Mel,
I've had a lot of stuff to deal with this last week or so, which meant little trading. Also, I have to send my laptop back for repair on Teusday so I wont be around for the next couple of weeks either.
  • #10,651
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:59am Jan 26, 2011 9:59am
trading now will just get you sucked into the range like everybody else. this now is market makers sharky territory to make some money. they play with you. there won't be a true breakout prior to fomc. if there is, well, other trades come without tons of risk.
  • #10,652
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:01am Jan 26, 2011 10:01am
Quoting TheWinkler
Hi Plata, a vertical box count was used, based on ...
Hello guys,
i hope u dont mean any harm.
there were several posts today here regarding P&F, i humbly suggest we stay on topic. im sure there are threads about P&F on FF.
  • #10,653
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:07am Jan 26, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
trading now will just get you sucked into the range like everybody else. this now is market makers sharky territory to make some money. they play with you. there won't be a true breakout prior to fomc. if there is, well, other trades come without tons of risk.
But how am I supposed to have any fun? Xbox just doesnt cut it anymore.
  • #10,654
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:09am Jan 26, 2011 10:09am
since you also live in canadaland you could go to malcolm and kick him in his butt- with best wishes from the german

Quoting Sonofsin5
But how am I supposed to have any fun? Xbox just doesnt cut it anymore.
  • #10,655
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:15am Jan 26, 2011 10:15am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
since you also live in canadaland you could go to malcolm and kick him in his butt- with best wishes from the german
haha, thats difficult since hes always on his ass trading or playing xbox, next time I take him for beers mabye.
  • #10,656
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:31am Jan 26, 2011 10:31am
lol, yeah. damnit! steal halo & call of duty and he will be lost

Quoting Sonofsin5
haha, thats difficult since hes always on his ass trading or playing xbox, next time I take him for beers mabye.
  • #10,657
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:32am Jan 26, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Beljevina
OK, the DPP got bought, S&P targeting up too. Not looking like a free ride - seems like not everyone agrees. Am not looking for lots here, will scale out 1.369/1.37
I wasn't happy to get only 40 pips @ 1.37, but hey, that's the kind of market it is. Indecisiveness back in play at 1.368 now - we are sooo correlated with the S&P here. Don't follow the Dow but it hit it's 12K.

FOMC has been a dud the last few times IMO - don't think it will be any different this time, as no major changes are expected (although there is the wild card of 4 new and hawkish members). Would have to check, but I recall <20 pips movement in the euro last time.

Quoting Sonofsin5
On another note, where the heck is Intel?
Apparently his lappy went on the fritz among other things that had come up ... we need to get a loaner program in place here for our valued members, lol!! Can't go without their valuable input!
  • #10,658
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:37am Jan 26, 2011 10:37am
the dow is a little girl compared to the es. easy to gun this index consisting of 30 stocks

if you look for manipulation, there it is.

news is all about dow dow dow..even though it is nothing.

if you can sit on your hands- i expect some decent moves after fomc, also es 1300.

Quoting Beljevina
I wasn't happy to get only 40 pips @ 1.37, but hey, that's the kind of market it is. Indecisiveness back in play at 1.368 now - we are sooo correlated with the S&P here. Don't follow the Dow but it hit it's 12K.

FOMC has been a dud the last few times IMO - don't think it will be any different this time, as no major changes are expected (although there is the wild card of 4 new and hawkish members). Would have to check, but I recall <20 pips movement in the euro last time.

Apparently his lappy went on the fritz among other things that had come...
  • #10,659
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:42am Jan 26, 2011 10:42am
I am quite sure this question has probably been asked several times already but hopefully nobody expects me to go sieving through 700+ pages....but do who is your data provider(for reliability of volume).

I personally use the weekly futures charts(for CoT) and daily futures chart as well.I trade on the 4hrs chart where i use dukascopy's(demo) volume since i have in writing from them that their volume is the aggregate liquidity of all their liquidity providers.

Can anybody suggest a better method?

Also please do not suggest esignal etc since i am just learning to trade and can't afford it.
  • #10,660
  • Jan 26, 2011 11:21am Jan 26, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Sonofsin5
On another note, where the heck is Intel?
where you can find all welschmen .. in the shearing shed with the sheep....
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