vsa with Malcolm

I am also in agreement on this long trigger... the only place I differ is that I won't become short trade biased for anything longer term (like Malc's 100pip target he mentioned if going short) until we also clear 3611.

Just so you know, the free esignal feed with forex.com does not include the full contributor feed. It's only the GAIN feed.

Those with IB may have noticed you get interbank volume (not tick) and time and sales. Yes, for spot fx

Only problem is that it's not historical, it's only real time.

Sure it isn't the whole market, but it's enough for me to be able to read the tape and profit from it.

Here's what comes to mind:

 

1. Chinese rate hike threat & risk impact
2. US GDP upcoming
3. Obama State of the Union impact
4. FOMC meeting in a new makeup w/4 hawkish members
5. DX possible bounce up, thus inverse reaction in euro
6. gold, S&P, Dow reversal zones - see below for the importance of 1250
7. equity market rise continues on incredibly low volume: 20% since August (assuming you count algos) - no better time for reversal than hitting major resistance areas - would a 10% correction be reasonable?
8. euro December problems have absolutely not changed - the 1300 pip December dump was for a reason - we're 700+ pips retraced there - SM should be loading up and reading for the next 1300 pips, and thus completing the ABC leg pattern; let's write-up January as bullish and get on with the real euro direction
9. lots of euro-specific matters, but Spain's Cajas are next I believe, and no small mortgage & loan affair

Would also recommend The-LFB's insightful market sentiment writings as found on this page; if you're looking for a good day-to-day analysis, it could be beneficial to read some of the previous day's writeups; the one that follows is today's.

Pressure Builds As The Dollar Index Holds Support

Something Has To Give

Currency pairs moved back to their opening prices after Asian session trade saw Usd selling. The moves were reversed as European futures markets sent S&P 500 equity prices lower off a test of 1292 resistance, to settle around 1285 ahead of the London price fixings on oil and gold. A bout of intra-day Usd buying coincided with weaker than expected U.K. GDP numbers, which sent Gbp lower against all major counterparts and created a Usd buying move that could not however transpose itself to other pairs.

Tight ranges on Aud and Cad do not reflect the fact that global commodity prices have dropped 3-5% over the last few sessions. Jpy and Chf trading in the same tight ranges do not reflect the volatility in global interest rate markets. Eur and Gbp had been levitated higher on the strength of Federal Reserve-backed equity buying that has floated stocks higher on incredibly light participation levels. That is something Gbp will now rely upon to retrieve the overnight pip loss in reaction to a preliminary GDP read that garnered far more algorithm attention than seemed logical.

The dollar index remains anchored at 78.50 and seems to be having a hard time attracting buyers in the near-term. The index is easily holding main 78.00 support and created a 4-hour chart triple bottom that does target 82.00 if equity trade drops S&P Futures down to test 1265 support.

Global market trade has signaled a major swing point, with commodities trading out of sync with equity and dollar trade.Interest rate markets are absorbing a raft of regional Bund, Gilt, and Treasury noise that is coming from all quarters as governments step in to protect their own views on fair value.

Gold does not generate a new long signal until 1350 is broken and held on a weekly chart basis, in-line with silver closing through 27.50. A new long-oil signal will not be seen until WTI closes a weekly chart above 89.00. None of the three price points look to be in any danger of getting hit in the near term. Short signals for the next leg lower are gold under 1320, silver under 25.50, and WTI oil trade under 86.00, all of which could pressure equity values and allow the dollar index the chance to play catch-up.

Even in the high velocity, low-volume trading world of global equity trade, where fair value is set each day by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as they manipulate trade between the Fed’s Primary Dealers in an effort to monetize QE2 doctrines, it may be difficult to stop a test of 1265 support on the S&P 500.

However, these are unique times, with new normal’s to absorb each day, which lead to having to bank early and bank often, at least until an increase in global participation levels return. If not investors will suffer the same fate as 2009, and early 2010, when reversals hit as soon as the punch bowl of Federal Reserve back-stops were removed. In that environment intra-day futures reversals of 1-2% are not only tolerated but expected.

Long term investors in stocks are still waiting for the last decade to turn positive, with 1250 on S&P 500 trade a benchmark that just will not go away nor will it be easily broken and held, either long or short.

The S&P 500 index ended 2010 at 1257.64, just slightly higher than that level. Although it gained 13% for the year, the 2010 close was only 28 points, or 2.3%, higher than its 1998 close.

S&P 500's 1250 Tipping Point

 

1. December 1998: 1250. On the way to 1574 in a 87% gain from the October 1997 lows.
2. February 2001: 1250. On the way to 767 in a 51% drop from the December 1998 highs.
3. November 2005: 1250. On the way to 1586 in a 107% gain from the February 2001 lows
4. July 2008: 1250. On the way to 665 in a 58% drop from the November 2005 highs.
5. December 2010: 1250. Closed with a 88% gain from the July 2008 lows.

This confirms once again that the buy-and-hold mantra is outdated. Once we factor in inflation, the index's return has been negative over the last 12 years. The ride hasn't been quiet however, as seen in the moves listed above. The index has seen big intra-day swings, 100% yearly reversals and the birth of a new generation of high-frequency trading that has come to dominate futures exchanges worldwide.

Thanks so much for the detailed explanation...

actually through the esignal feed i can get both the GAIN feed and the composite GTIS feed. EUR A0-FX is the GTIS feed and EUR@GAIN A0-FX is the GAIN feed. I use the GTIS feed with the esignal software.

it still amazes me how old bad habits can creep back into your mind so easily. The post above was so not warranted now that I think about it. 60, 30, and 15 min charts were all above the hull, and not just because of the single ND-like bar (which is suspect anyways due to time of day) would one want to go short there. Plus I have a plan established for possible re-entry at 3640 area given the right setup.

Apologies for that post, it is of no use to this thread.

Yes what's that old saying... plan your trades and trade your plan. We are ll guilty of straying at times. Yes I would love to see a nice shake out, confirmation and then a low volume test or NS near the 3640 level to get in on a nice long. I have my email alert set-up to tell me if price gets into the 3650-3640 zone since I will be in bed if and when price gets there... maybe since Asia is moving it down already. If we get there too early (more than 2 hrs before LO) I am not sure what I will do.

You could just post the link to the website:

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact....pENz-Miw%3D%3D

I think many appreciate having the article right here to read, or pass it by. Not sure that's a problem, if it is, I'll let Malcolm and/or others give input ... this isn't mickey-mouse or baby-pips type analysis - it stands to benefit all who want to have a market sentiment & flow view and the complex linkage between vehicles.

Not sure of the link you provided; I posted their regularly updated page on seeking-alpha. Their actual domain name with the content is found here.

Yes, Today's (01-25-11) The LFB article: "Something has to Give"
http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=51405

Apologies, you are correct. They are now providing the full feed. This was not the case last time I checked.

http://www.forex.com/charts-esignal.html


Not a bad deal I must say

tgwhbb, sebohsj, And anyone else using the 'free' or forex.com-type provided datafeed: are you guys talking about and using the ForexCharts program from eSignal, which they give you to use with the 'free' eSignal datafeed?

If so, do you have problems with the updating and redrawing of the volume on a live basis, ie., it doesn't draw the volume in the volume area, until I hit refresh? I can leave a few charts up of various timeframes, and I have to hit refresh to have the volumes appear - it's very annoying. I have tried this on 2 PCs and the problem is consistent.

Am I hearing that you use the 'free' datafeed in some other program, other than ForexCharts? I'm asking because I'd tried, and there's something in the data stream or the datafeed manager that only allows it to work within ForexCharts.

I don't use forex.com Beljevina. I enquired a while ago though when the GTIS feed wasn't part of the deal. I have esignal for futures/equities historical tick data and I use IB for fx.

Dear Bel

I too use the esignal charting package of forex.com and have the same problem in terms of volume need to keep refreshing it every time. I tried chatting with their live support but nothing came out they said it could be firewall at your office when i asked what about at home where there is no firewall no answer. I guess we need to refresh that is it.

regards
balaji

Thanks for the input and confirmation.

Clearly the problem is with them and their application, not us. I hate it how helpdesks just makeup stuff to make people go away.

I'm getting the real GTIS feed somewhat because of that and will not be going with the broker who offers these half-baked tools and services.

same problem here, i need to refresh manually for the volume to update. Its a royal pain in the ... not sure if its the ForexCharts application itself, or forex.com implementation/version of it. I tried installing the eSignal app version 11 directly from their site rather than the one i installed from forex.com, but after install i get an error my account is not authorized for that application. It would be great if I could plug that GTIS feed into some other app.

I also found this on the esignal web site:
SPECIAL OFFER FROM GAIN CAPITAL FOR eSIGNAL SUBSCRIBERS
Trade 100 round-trip $100K lots (or equivalent) per month with GAIN Capital / FOREX.com and receive the cost of eSignal Premier (Futures), plus eSignal's GTIS Forex feed, rebated into your GAIN Capital / FOREX.com account. For offer details contact [email protected].

Unfortunately i'm not yet trading that size as i prefer to keep my risk low while still learning. Haven't tried eSignal Premier, but sounds like an interesting deal.

Hey there!
Point and figure charts can be used to determine how far movements are about to go.
Point and figure charts don't measure time, so the blocks don't align with the candle chart.
The cup like formation on the left (not seen in my example, but in a current 1h EU) is followed by the blocks, too.
It is said that the longer price stands still around one level, the more far the next move will be. In my calculation (trial 1) the next move will be around 300 pips
Does anybody here use PnF, too?

i would love tolearn how to draw these...where can i learn ?

Yesterdays downmove on GU:A shake-out can be defined as is a sudden wide spread down, usually on bad news. It is engineered to
create panic selling, thus helping the transfer of stock back to the professional traders. This is usually seen
after a bull move has been running for some time. You would expect higher prices after this event. A true
selling climax looks the same as this shake-out does; the big difference is that on a selling climax you will
have a Bear Market behind you.

Any comment could this be it.

Here is the indi:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=32296

I use a box size of "200" - my broker is a 5 digit broker. 200 equals 20 pips.

Currently, I'm reading Definitive Guide to Point and Figure from Jeremy du Plessier. Not hard to understand but I just started...