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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,081
  • Jan 24, 2011 11:46pm Jan 24, 2011 11:46pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
... I cannot look at wave structure in the traditional way any more... It just doesn't make sense to me!
Me neither after meetin YOU...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,082
  • Jan 25, 2011 12:05am Jan 25, 2011 12:05am
Quoting The Watcher
Hello Ian,

Whats your take on UJ? With interest rates left at near zero.
No idea about interest rates... not part of the equation for me! However, if you followed the Dollar Index call then you can imagine I'm bullish Dollars for a while but not in any massive multi-month perspective... Indeed, my preference is still for a lower Dollar eventually.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,083
  • Jan 25, 2011 12:06am Jan 25, 2011 12:06am
Quoting Raza
Me neither after meetin YOU...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,084
  • Jan 25, 2011 1:12am Jan 25, 2011 1:12am
Quoting smilemiz
sure preethaforex..
thanks smile for the great help u are gonna do for learners like us.. looking forward to learn it..
  • #5,085
  • Jan 25, 2011 4:59am Jan 25, 2011 4:59am
gj was down...eurgbp was up..
(london breakout)
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stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,086
  • Jan 25, 2011 5:38am Jan 25, 2011 5:38am
Quoting Ian Copsey
1.3641 hit... That's Wave iii of Wave -c- (261.8%). Look for a pullback in Wave iv to around 1.3541 being the 50% retracement... From there the 66.7% projection in Wave v is at 1.3705. The larger Wave -v- has a 76.4% projection at 1.3700 & Wave -c- of Wave -v- has a 105.60% projection at 1.3705...
Hi Ian, does your theory still hold ie: Wave iv to 1.3541 as price dipped to 1.3570 and now back above 1.36xx
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  • #5,087
  • Jan 25, 2011 6:41am Jan 25, 2011 6:41am
Quoting gh0stjpy
Hi Ian, does your theory still hold ie: Wave iv to 1.3541 as price dipped to 1.3570 and now back above 1.36xx
Well, your count is not what I have indicated so far...

Mine is this:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...g?t=1295959057

The rally from 1.3539 was rather weird... not at all clear. It could be a Wave v to finish the whole sequence falling short of 1.3700-05 or it may have been Wave a and the dip to 1.3572 being Wave b ... of Wave v...

You can see the steep bearish divergence - the 4-hour is the same. The Dollar index bounced from just above the 77.70 target and has an hourly bullish divergence...

Whether it goes straight down or up to 1.3700-05 is open for debate. However, overall it should go down...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,088
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:11am Jan 25, 2011 7:11am
Quoting Ian Copsey
Well, your count is not what I have indicated so far...

Mine is this:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...g?t=1295959057

The rally from 1.3539 was rather weird... not at all clear. It could be a Wave v to finish the whole sequence falling short of 1.3700-05 or it may have been Wave a and the dip to 1.3572 being Wave b ... of Wave v...

You can see the steep bearish divergence - the 4-hour is the same. The Dollar index bounced from just above the 77.70 target and...
Well, your count is not what I have indicated so far...

my chart is rather simplistic as just getting to learn EWT, but thanks for reply.
  • #5,089
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:29am Jan 25, 2011 7:29am
Quoting Ian Copsey
Well, your count is not what I have indicated so far...

Mine is this:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...g?t=1295959057

The rally from 1.3539 was rather weird... not at all clear. It could be a Wave v to finish the whole sequence falling short of 1.3700-05 or it may have been Wave a and the dip to 1.3572 being Wave b ... of Wave v...

You can see the steep bearish divergence - the 4-hour is the same. The Dollar index bounced from just above the 77.70 target...
My Good man Ian!!!

Read EW again My good man !!

Wave 1 must be an Impulse
Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
Wave 5 must be an Impulse
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #5,090
  • Jan 25, 2011 10:13am Jan 25, 2011 10:13am
Quoting vincy balboa
My Good man Ian!!!

Read EW again My good man !!

Wave 1 must be an Impulse
Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
Wave 5 must be an Impulse
Please go back and re-read my posts. Especially the EURUSD & Dollar Index of the last few days...

I totally disagree with Elliott's original structure which I feel was a misjudgment. Wave relationships work with a hybrid of the Dow Theory and Elliott... I call it Harmonic Elliott Wave. I've just been through the process of showing that it works calling the 1.3640 top & 1.3540 low and a final 1.3700-05 top ...and in Dollar Index 77.70 target low... All those posts will explain.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,091
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:06pm Jan 25, 2011 2:06pm
Hi Ian & everybody..

just my view of euro price behavior..hope it's still in corrective zone,

i use fibo expansion for wave v projection/zone..still learning ..
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  • #5,092
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:17pm Jan 25, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting mazlan660
Hi Ian & everybody..

just my view of euro price behavior..hope it's still in corrective zone,

i use fibo expansion for wave v projection/zone..still learning ..
Definite possibility. Personally I don't see Wave v developing in 5's... still only 3's. The refusal to go down is frustrating me having reached just short of the 76.4% projection in Wave v. It makes me wonder whether it can get closer to the 85.4% projection at 1.3749-54... However, USDCHF has reached my retracement target now and in the final leg of a triple three... It should reverse higher soon... The Dollar Index has held just above my 77.70 target...

I understand your bearish daily Wave i and expanded flat and there's nothing wrong with that in terms of structure. My concern is the Dollar Index which I still see as being in a bearish Wave (iv) triangle and should end on this coming rally... That would imply a big Wave (v) lower... That's why I'm tending to feel we'll not see a bearish impulsive structure lower in the EURUSD larger picture...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,093
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:51pm Jan 25, 2011 2:51pm
Ian,

On page 3, USDCHF 10M

I'm having trouble finding Wave -ii- on this chart- the it looks the same as -i- (~1.0638 level) (I don't think I would have ever recognized that area as a corrective wave. Please give me some insight.

http://www.harmonic-ewave.com/files/...e_Article2.pdf

I'm open with adapting rules to "more fit" the wave structure- as often (esp forex) ends of trends are on "climatic" action and in final waves the 4 and 5 never appear as they should...(implying maybe really only 3??)
  • #5,094
  • Jan 25, 2011 8:45pm Jan 25, 2011 8:45pm
Quoting Jefftrader
Ian,

On page 3, USDCHF 10M

I'm having trouble finding Wave -ii- on this chart- the it looks the same as -i- (~1.0638 level) (I don't think I would have ever recognized that area as a corrective wave. Please give me some insight.

http://www.harmonic-ewave.com/files/...e_Article2.pdf

I'm open with adapting rules to "more fit" the wave structure- as often (esp forex) ends of trends are on "climatic" action and in final waves the 4 and 5 never appear as they should...(implying maybe really only 3??)
Hi Jeff

Well, you'll be surprised how many times that kind of Wave -ii- occurs. I tend to call it a hook Wave -ii-. It does raise the importance of identifying Wave -i- and -ii- as unless these are identified the Wave -iii- & -iv- then become a problem also. First thing is to make sure there's a decent ABC move in the Wave -i-...

If there are any doubts then you should be watching for a 5-wave move thereafter. If you can see where the wave relationships work in a Wave -a- then you can begin to get a batter idea of -i- & -ii-... Where it gets even more complicated is when the Wave -b- is also so shallow that it just seems to blend in with the entire move...

However, always be on the look out for alternation in Wave -a- and Wave -c- as they also give you a decent idea of the structure.

There are still plenty of issues to cover with HEW but the ratios and attention to alternation is key... as is measurement...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,095
  • Jan 25, 2011 8:47pm Jan 25, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting gh0stjpy
Well, your count is not what I have indicated so far...

my chart is rather simplistic as just getting to learn EWT, but thanks for reply.
Apologies - it looked like you were presenting my count and suggesting it may fail...

From what I've seen so far it is favoring follow-through to the 85.4% projection in Wave v (of Wave -c-) and in Wave -v- at 1.3749-54... The 1.3650-60 area must continue to hold for this...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,096
  • Jan 25, 2011 9:35pm Jan 25, 2011 9:35pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
Hi Jeff

Well, you'll be surprised how many times that kind of Wave -ii- occurs. I tend to call it a hook Wave -ii-. It does raise the importance of identifying Wave -i- and -ii- as unless these are identified the Wave -iii- & -iv- then become a problem also. First thing is to make sure there's a decent ABC move in the Wave -i-...

If there are any doubts then you should be watching for a 5-wave move thereafter. If you can see where the wave relationships work in a Wave -a- then you can begin to get a batter idea of -i- & -ii-... Where it gets...
Thanks for replying- I like the example because it shows the exact kind of climatic action we see in Forex, at the end of the wave v waves iv and v never appear- missing the opp to enter on the reversal.

I'll have to keep an eye out for more "hook" waves.
  • #5,097
  • Jan 26, 2011 1:33am Jan 26, 2011 1:33am
i got everything pause on pivot...
2 hrs to wait..
stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,098
  • Jan 26, 2011 3:24am Jan 26, 2011 3:24am
Quoting Ian Copsey
Definite possibility. Personally I don't see Wave v developing in 5's... still only 3's. The refusal to go down is frustrating me having reached just short of the 76.4% projection in Wave v. It makes me wonder whether it can get closer to the 85.4% projection at 1.3749-54... However, USDCHF has reached my retracement target now and in the final leg of a triple three... It should reverse higher soon... The Dollar Index has held just above my 77.70 target...

I understand your bearish daily Wave i and expanded flat and there's nothing wrong with that...
Thnks for ur opinion Ian.. my concern is it's developing a diagonal triangle..which is common in C wave positions during the "lettered phase" or corrective waves..(according to text book)..maybe it's not corrective wave after all..wait & see
  • #5,099
  • Jan 26, 2011 5:34am Jan 26, 2011 5:34am
Quoting Ian Copsey
Definite possibility. Personally I don't see Wave v developing in 5's... still only 3's. The refusal to go down is frustrating me having reached just short of the 76.4% projection in Wave v. It makes me wonder whether it can get closer to the 85.4% projection at 1.3749-54... However, USDCHF has reached my retracement target now and in the final leg of a triple three... It should reverse higher soon... The Dollar Index has held just above my 77.70 target...

I understand your bearish daily Wave i and expanded flat and there's nothing wrong with that...
Ian..about 5 or 3 waves count..what i know is tht in the diagonal triangle the subwave in the wedge will likely to subdivide into "threes" rather than "fives"...& it's easier to make a 5 or more count for the buildup struc ...

Thnks for update of US index ..its help a lot
  • #5,100
  • Jan 26, 2011 5:54am Jan 26, 2011 5:54am
Quoting mazlan660
Ian..about 5 or 3 waves count..what i know is tht in the diagonal triangle the subwave in the wedge will likely to subdivide into "threes" rather than "fives"...& it's easier to make a 5 or more count for the buildup struc ...

Thnks for update of US index ..its help a lot
Ah yes, but you have the Wave v in a diagonal triangle - which is fine from Elliott's original structure but in the Harmonic it can only happen where there is a 5-wave structure - and that's in a Wave A or C...

Harmonically the structure remains the same all the time with no exceptions... no extensions, no failed fifths and all Wave A & C's are (in Elliott's terms) diagonal triangles... except don't necessarily see i & iv overlap...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
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