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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,041
  • Jan 23, 2011 6:11am Jan 23, 2011 6:11am
Hi Ian,

I am a beginner to Elliott wave and am currently reading a book called elliott wave simplified before moving onto prether's book... my question is you ahve many many fibo ratios in your analysis - are there ones that you definately can't use??
  • #5,042
  • Jan 23, 2011 6:33am Jan 23, 2011 6:33am
Quoting jaylovin
Hi Ian,

I am a beginner to Elliott wave and am currently reading a book called elliott wave simplified before moving onto prether's book... my question is you ahve many many fibo ratios in your analysis - are there ones that you definately can't use??
First of all, my personal opinion and experience is that the traditional 5 wave structure in Wave 1, 3 & 5 is not correct. I explain this in the book - and how I feel the misjudgment was made. Everything else about EW I agree with.

I wouldn't say there are any ratios you definitely wouldn't use but the more critical point is that you tend to get a cluster of ratios for certain waves. For example, commonly Wave (iii)'s will be between 176.4% & 198.4% (the ones in between being 185.4%, 190% and 194.4%) and this would be true for 276.4% ~ and 376.4~... If you're talking Wave (v) then the vast majority are around 61.8%, 66.7% & 76.4%... You need to look at the tendency for each market since I see the Dow extending by 50% or 58.6% more than in Forex. Stronger Wave (v)'s can get to 85.4% and rarely 90% or 94.4%...

What is vital in all this is that the Wave (c) of Wave (iii) or Wave (v) must have a common target. Wave (c)'s more cluster around 85.4%-123.6% (in between having 90%, 94.4%, 100% (rare) 105.6%, 109%, 114.6%... Less common but possible are 138.2% and 161.8%... Then there are longer ones as well... but less frequent.

So when forecasting the trick is to look for matching Wave (c) and (iii) - or (v) targets. You will also look for a matching Wave v of Wave (c) to be in the same area.

So if you look at the images of the spreadsheet I have posted you'll see how I attempt to identify the high risk areas. You will need to bear them in mind and be aware of the momentum conditions when approached to filter the more likely stalling point.

Good luck... EW is a challenge!

Ian
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,043
  • Jan 23, 2011 6:45am Jan 23, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Ian Copsey
First of all, my personal opinion and experience is that the traditional 5 wave structure in Wave 1, 3 & 5 is not correct. I explain this in the book - and how I feel the misjudgment was made. Everything else about EW I agree with.

I wouldn't say there are any ratios you definitely wouldn't use but the more critical point is that you tend to get a cluster of ratios for certain waves. For example, commonly Wave (iii)'s will be between 176.4% & 198.4% (the ones in between being 185.4%, 190% and 194.4%) and this would be true for 276.4% ~ and 376.4~......

yup checking out the spreadsheet now.... Thanks for the response! very insightful...
  • #5,044
  • Jan 23, 2011 6:54am Jan 23, 2011 6:54am
Quoting Ian Copsey
First of all, my personal opinion and experience is that the traditional 5 wave structure in Wave 1, 3 & 5 is not correct. I explain this in the book - and how I feel the misjudgment was made. Everything else about EW I agree with.

I wouldn't say there are any ratios you definitely wouldn't use but the more critical point is that you tend to get a cluster of ratios for certain waves. For example, commonly Wave (iii)'s will be between 176.4% & 198.4% (the ones in between being 185.4%, 190% and 194.4%) and this would be true for 276.4% ~ and...

yup..
hi Ian..i think u r alredy forgot me..

I told u before.. U just make it EW more simplest approached.. and changing from the Orthodox EW..at from the labelling and the fibo application...A NEW APPROACH ..SIMPLE and EASY


I LI KE IT
  • #5,045
  • Jan 23, 2011 1:57pm Jan 23, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
Let me explain my thinking process... as there were (to me) some conflicts and things that weren't totally "normal" as far as the Harmonic structure...

First, here's my chart:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...ally2chart.jpg

Firstly, the first Wave -c- extension in Wave -i- was a very common 105.6%. The pullback in Wave -ii-... well I like them to be on the standard retracement ratios but this one was 45%. The projection in Wave -iii- was 5 points above the 261.8% projection....




Read ur analysis tho its a bit differ frm other elliottician/ a normal student of elliott would do..but i get the picture.. keep it up.. will stop by again at ur website;
  • #5,046
  • Jan 23, 2011 2:09pm Jan 23, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting smilemiz
yup..
hi Ian..i think u r alredy forgot me..

I told u before.. U just make it EW more simplest approached.. and changing from the Orthodox EW..at from the labelling and the fibo application...A NEW APPROACH ..SIMPLE and EASY


I LI KE IT
No, I haven't forgotten you!
I am happy that you see the benefits and the fractal beauty of the changes. Easy? Well, easier... It can still be a big challenge but this way the waves talk to you, provide hints if you are on the wrong track... Most of all, it provides the wave harmony that Elliott wrote about which is largely ignored these days...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,047
  • Jan 23, 2011 5:47pm Jan 23, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
I agree, that if price tops at 1.3700-05 the likely outcome will be a correction and not a new low... I am open at this point as I do see the Dollar Index being quite strong but in the last leg of a weekly/monthly triangle - so the eventual implication being Dollar bearish. However, I see more upside potential in USDCHF and USDJPY... The pullback in EURUSD could be quite deep but at this point I'm not convinced that it'll make a new price low. If it does, then it'll not get anywhere close to 1.1879...

Sixer,
If this gets above 1.3700-05 (76.4%...
1.3641 hit... That's Wave iii of Wave -c- (261.8%). Look for a pullback in Wave iv to around 1.3541 being the 50% retracement... From there the 66.7% projection in Wave v is at 1.3705. The larger Wave -v- has a 76.4% projection at 1.3700 & Wave -c- of Wave -v- has a 105.60% projection at 1.3705...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,048
  • Jan 24, 2011 1:36am Jan 24, 2011 1:36am
Quoting Ian Copsey
1.3641 hit... That's Wave iii of Wave -c- (261.8%). Look for a pullback in Wave iv to around 1.3541 being the 50% retracement... From there the 66.7% projection in Wave v is at 1.3705. The larger Wave -v- has a 76.4% projection at 1.3700 & Wave -c- of Wave -v- has a 105.60% projection at 1.3705...
UPDATE:

Here is the chart of the Wave (c) higher - sorry I've used a slightly different nomenclature... not very professional - I was trying to do things in a hurry...

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...D5minWavec.jpg

Where I've mentioned Wave ii before it's the Wave -ii- in this chart... The reason for the 50% is all to do with alternation. I find a strong tendency for the sum of the percentages in Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) to arrive close to 100%. Practically this can be between 80% and 120%. I haven't run any statistics but I reckon it would be safe to suggest that 1 standard deviation would come between 90% and 110% and 2 SD between 80% and 120%. You can get them outside but it's not that often...

So looking at the spreadsheet:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...Wavectable.jpg

A 50% retracement in Wave (iv) is not at all uncommon. This particular one could still stall just above or just below and remain within the normal Wave (ii) + Wave (iv) bands and still rally to 1.3700-05.

Well, still a little more to prove but so far things appear to be developing in line with expectations...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,049
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:36am Jan 24, 2011 2:36am
You said 20 yrs EXPERIENCE........SO I SLAM ON THE BREAKS>>>>>>

I still don't see a call...........can you just post it here......or in my pm......

YOu do a CALL based on your process........

FOR ANY ONE WHO DOESN'T know they won't understand your post about wave 2 at 50% .......yes it is wave 2............

This happens so we can know that the PATTERN has been z wave double zigzag.......Other wise there would be nothing to define the strong impulse move up.......All mediocre elliotticians recognized this at same time.......you still questioning.

Make a CALL plz.......I have no doubt that it works.......just want to know what is happening.......I can know that based on a call from you.......I am just brilliant......lol

All you are saying against elliott is lack of knowledge of time and fib proportionality..........

I am engaging you in this conversation to learn and not to piss you off.......or doubt you...........

Quoting Ian Copsey
You have the call on the Dollar Index above already...

See: http://stocktwits.com/HarmonicElliottWave

However, remember this is like coding. It is more effective if you know the process and can recognize the basis for the call - that way you can work through the wrinkles...

I'm quite aware of Thomson. I used to work for Telerate... which after a few changes became part of Thomson Reuters and where I still have ex-colleagues.
  • #5,050
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:41am Jan 24, 2011 2:41am
THis is GOOD.......Now I CAn follow what you are doing to know if it would be better than elliott for me too.......

THANKS ; KEEP THEM COMING........


Quoting Ian Copsey
1.3641 hit... That's Wave iii of Wave -c- (261.8%). Look for a pullback in Wave iv to around 1.3541 being the 50% retracement... From there the 66.7% projection in Wave v is at 1.3705. The larger Wave -v- has a 76.4% projection at 1.3700 & Wave -c- of Wave -v- has a 105.60% projection at 1.3705...
  • #5,051
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:45am Jan 24, 2011 2:45am
Quoting grandpost
You said 20 yrs EXPERIENCE........SO I SLAM ON THE BREAKS>>>>>>

I still don't see a call...........can you just post it here......or in my pm......

YOu do a CALL based on your process........

FOR ANY ONE WHO DOESN'T know they won't understand your post about wave 2 at 50% .......yes it is wave 2............

This happens so we can know that the PATTERN has been...
Sorry, but I think you've missed something...

I've made the calls for a final top at 1.3700-05 and also mentioned earlier that the first move would be to 1.3640 (seen) a retracement to around 1.3541 (in process) and then up to 1.3700-05...

That's not a call?

I have also said in the Dollar Index that the target for a total reversal higher is at 77.70...

That's not a call?

As for lack of fib proportionality ... well, I'll argue long and hard about that as Harmonic Elliott Wave is based exactly on that.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,052
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:52am Jan 24, 2011 2:52am
........
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,053
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:59am Jan 24, 2011 2:59am
Quoting grandpost
THis is GOOD.......Now I CAn follow what you are doing to know if it would be better than elliott for me too.......

THANKS ; KEEP THEM COMING........
AH... I see we overlapped with our responses... I see that you have now seen the calls...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,054
  • Jan 24, 2011 3:07am Jan 24, 2011 3:07am
I am just THICK Headed......

THAT IS A CALL......THANK YOU

Please keep them coming for comparison...........I promise to only PM you results..........BEST WISHES..........

An EXCELLENT call I might add............(can you explain why we didn't hit 1.3640) now that it has happened can you make explanation for.......

I see exactly the same........Plz keep them coming .

In as much detail...........

AGAIN GOOD CALL; SORRY FOR MY SLOWNESS>

Quoting Ian Copsey
Sorry, but I think you've missed something...

I've made the calls for a final top at 1.3700-05 and also mentioned earlier that the first move would be to 1.3640 (seen) a retracement to around 1.3541 (in process) and then up to 1.3700-05...

That's not a call?

I have also said in the Dollar Index that the target for a total reversal higher is at 77.70...

That's not a call?

As for lack of fib proportionality ... well, I'll argue long and hard about that as Harmonic Elliott Wave is based exactly on that.
  • #5,055
  • Jan 24, 2011 3:30am Jan 24, 2011 3:30am
ian copsey hi there . the move to the upside may be is finished . why i would say so is looking into the correction to the upside in time and price you will notice that its equal in time to the first leg which iwill put on daily chart to show it
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  • #5,056
  • Jan 24, 2011 3:46am Jan 24, 2011 3:46am
Quoting grandpost
I am just THICK Headed......

THAT IS A CALL......THANK YOU

Please keep them coming for comparison...........I promise to only PM you results..........BEST WISHES..........

An EXCELLENT call I might add............(can you explain why we didn't hit 1.3640) now that it has happened can you make explanation for.......

I see exactly the same........Plz keep them coming .

In as much detail...........

AGAIN GOOD CALL; SORRY FOR MY SLOWNESS>
No problem... such is life...

According to my charts we did see 1.3640... See:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,057
  • Jan 24, 2011 3:48am Jan 24, 2011 3:48am
the chart shows clearly that wave a is eqaul to wave c and wave a and c are eqaul to wave b in time and wave c is 1.618 of a . in price this move to the upside could be finished and a reversal is in the way of making
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  • #5,058
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:51am Jan 24, 2011 4:51am
Quoting nawafasad1
ian copsey hi there . the move to the upside may be is finished . why i would say so is looking into the correction to the upside in time and price you will notice that its equal in time to the first leg which iwill put on daily chart to show it
How do you decide when a wave has come to an end? What measurements do you make within the structure you have? What ratios are the projections in each Wave 3? What retracements are the Wave 4's... If they're different, how do you allow for the differences and predict them in advance?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,059
  • Jan 24, 2011 5:03am Jan 24, 2011 5:03am
Hi everyone

Like most unfortunate people, I have to work during the day. I am pretty sharp trading on the 15 mins charts, but due to commitments, I am forced to trade the Daily Charts.

Can anybody here let me know where the best place to get started on Elliott Wave Theory is please? I have Prechters book.......but I would like a little more to subsidise it and get going with this.

Kindest Regards and keep the pips rolling in!!
  • #5,060
  • Jan 24, 2011 5:55am Jan 24, 2011 5:55am
Quoting Ian Copsey
How do you decide when a wave has come to an end? What measurements do you make within the structure you have? What ratios are the projections in each Wave 3? What retracements are the Wave 4's... If they're different, how do you allow for the differences and predict them in advance?
noone could be sure when a wave is finished . we only look for set ups at levels of res or support . retracments and projections of waves are not fixed . wave 4 could be 38,2 fib retracment of wave 3 or 61.8 or 50 % wave 5 could be 138.2 or 161.8 fib ext of wave 4 taken from 3 . 2 could be 100 % of wave 1 . first wave 2 pullback was 76.4 fib of 1 second wave 2 was 61.8 fib of wave 1 . wave 4 was a bit more than 31.8 fib of wave 3 .wave 5 was 161.8 fib as its shown on the chart . but you really missed that we are at 50% fib of the rally to the downside from 1.427 to 1.287 and the correction to the upside is 1.618 of wave a in price and eqaul to it in time . there s a lot here to consider a reversal in process
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