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FOREX Market Reversal Levels

  • #221
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:38pm Jan 21, 2011 2:38pm
Well I only checked 2 pairs for your method here, and gave up as they both would have lost significantly using this method (at least as I understand it). For instance, EUR/AUD would have lost big.

Possibly you mean sell when the price action cross "resistance" downward, and buy when it crosses support upward? If doing it the conventional way, selling when price reaches resistance from the bottom, on EUR/AUD today, would have been not good.

Quoting scooby-doo
If you cant afford Andrew's subscription service (i cant think why) then you can try the following.

Sell at resistence being Previous_Monthly_High + Previous_Weekly_High + Previous_Daily_High / 3 and Stoch(7,3,3) > 80 and Stoch(14,3,5) > 80

Buy at support being Previous_Monthly_Low + Previous_Weekly_Low + Previous_Daily_Low / 3 and Stoch(7,3,3) < 20 and Stoch(14,3,5) < 20

Scoobs.
  • #222
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:40pm Jan 21, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting Dreamliner
That is clear now then.

Alright, since I now understand better, and since these numbers are obviously so accurate, and since so many of us are wondering how to actually trade them, here is what I am going to do (I know that this upcoming week is the last week of the free trial):

I am going to take the numbers you provide this coming Sunday, plot them on all charts as horizontal lines, and simply trade between them. In other words, when the price breaches one of your lines from the top I will enter the trade short, and when price breaches...
Hi Dreamliner,


We are delighted that you are going to evaluate our FREE numbers next week.

Subscription comes with the FIRST MONTH FREE and you can cancel any time.


Yes, our FMRL numbers are more accurate than most.

Monthly and Weekly levels can be treated the same.

The only difference is that Monthly levels are usually stronger.

And their strength increases when two levels are close together.


FMRL is where we expect the market to reverse, find support or meet resistance.

FMRL does not tell you if the price will reverse or bounce.

Our levels are only useful in the light of the Price Action.

That’s why we think they are only useful to experienced traders.

We would not trade even the best levels naked in the way you are suggesting.

Andrew
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  • #223
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:43pm Jan 21, 2011 2:43pm
But when you post those wonderful "safe 1 gazillion pips" charts, that is exactly what you are doing. You are saying, if entering short after crossing one of your numbers, it would have been "safe" down to the next line. Vice Versa for longs.

Quoting Andrewkin
Hi Dreamliner,


We are delighted that you are going to evaluate our FREE numbers next week.

Subscription comes with the FIRST MONTH FREE and you can cancel any time.


Yes, our FMRL numbers are more accurate than most.

Monthly and Weekly levels can be treated the same.

The only difference is that Monthly levels are usually stronger.

And their strength increases when two levels are close together.


FMRL is where we expect the market to reverse, find support or meet resistance.

[b]FMRL does not tell you if the price will...
  • #224
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:44pm Jan 21, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Well I only checked 2 pairs for your method here, and gave up as they both would have lost significantly using this method (at least as I understand it). For instance, EUR/AUD would have lost big.

Possibly you mean sell when the price action cross "resistance" downward, and buy when it crosses support upward? If doing it the conventional way, selling when price reaches resistance from the bottom, on EUR/AUD today, would have been not good.
Yes, sorry if i was not clear, sell when price action breaks resistence up and then crosses "resistence" downward and buy when it breaks support down and crosses support upward.

Scoobs.
  • #225
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:44pm Jan 21, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting joekurr
Are there only monthly and weekly numbers? I don't see any daily numbers. If there are, can anyone direct me to them.

Thanks,
Joe
Hi joekurr.

We are not planning to publish daily levels as they can whiplash.

Andrew
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  • #226
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:47pm Jan 21, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Yes, sorry if i was not clear, sell when price action breaks resistence up and then crosses "resistence" downward and buy when it breaks support down and crosses support upward.

Scoobs.
Hi Scoobs and Dreamliner,

Are our thoughts in post #11 useless?

Andrew
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  • #227
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:47pm Jan 21, 2011 2:47pm
Ah, ok that makes much more sense, thanks for clarifying.

Quoting scooby-doo
Yes, sorry if i was not clear, sell when price action breaks resistence up and then crosses "resistence" downward and buy when it breaks support down and crosses support upward.

Scoobs.
  • #228
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:50pm Jan 21, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting Andrewkin
Hi Scoobs and Dreamliner,

Are our thoughts in post #11 useless?

Andrew
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Not at all they are very valid. I just wasnt sure some people on here fully understood post #11

Thats all.

Scoobs
  • #229
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:51pm Jan 21, 2011 2:51pm
I would not say "useless", no, what I would say is "contradictory." In other words, in post 11 you say

"Buy up from a line.

Sell down from a line.

Close profitably at the next line unless the price drives through and you take a view.

Close without loss if the price heads back and gets close to the line."

Then, in response to my trading plan that I was going to do next week (which is simply "buying up from a line" and "selling down from a line") you say "I would not trade naked in that way".

You see how some may be confused .

Quoting Andrewkin
Hi Scoobs and Dreamliner,

Are our thoughts in post #11 useless?

Andrew
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  • #230
  • Jan 21, 2011 2:58pm Jan 21, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting Dreamliner
I would not say "useless", no, what I would say is "contradictory." In other words, in post 11 you say

"Buy up from a line....
I think what Andrew has stated all along is that do not trade these levels naked but combine them with other technical indicators as i suggested in my previous post.

Scoobs.
  • #231
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:00pm Jan 21, 2011 3:00pm
Yes, I do understand that. All I am saying is that his "safe 4 babillion pips" charts have no other indicators, no other methods other than buying when price crossed his lines from below and selling when they cross his lines from above."

Quoting scooby-doo
I think what Andrew has stated all along is that do not trade these levels naked but combine them with other technical indicators as i suggested in my previous post.

Scoobs.
  • #232
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:05pm Jan 21, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting Dreamliner
But when you post those wonderful "safe 1 gazillion pips" charts, that is exactly what you are doing. You are saying, if entering short after crossing one of your numbers, it would have been "safe" down to the next line. Vice Versa for longs.
Hi Dreamliner,

SAFE is when the price touches or crosses two or more levels.

That's all.

SAFE is not a trading method.

We are not offering a system.

SAFE disregards spreads.

It disregarded multi-day trades.

And all those pips beyond our levels.

We expect good traders to do better than SAFE.

Andrew
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  • #233
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:09pm Jan 21, 2011 3:09pm
I'm sure experienced traders can do better than your "safe." However, have you added up the number of pips you have posted using your "safe" charts? Just for this past WEEK I assume it was in the thousands!

So while experienced traders can probably do better, a "safe" thousand or two thousand pips isn't half bad. Don't you think?

In other words, if you are going to post "safe" charts, then you probably should expect some "inexperienced" traders to begin trading in the same "safe" way that you post (all your disclaimers and warnings notwithstanding).

Quoting Andrewkin
Hi Dreamliner,

SAFE is when the price touches or crosses two or more levels.

That's all.

SAFE is not a trading method.

We are not offering a system.

SAFE disregards spreads.

It disregarded multi-day trades.

And all those pips beyond our levels.

We expect good traders to do better than SAFE.

Andrew
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  • #234
  • Edited 6:14am Jan 22, 2011 4:36am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting Dreamliner
I'm sure experienced traders can do better than your "safe." However, have you added up the number of pips you have posted using your "safe" charts? Just for this past WEEK I assume it was in the thousands...
Hello all,

Don't get hung up on Andrewkin's "safe pips" numbers. I am not sure many traders here could make these pips. I am reasonably experienced (just entering my 26th year in the game http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif) and I am not making anything like this.

So if there are any newbies out there (or any more experienced folk as well) who worry that you are getting left behind, please don't beat yourselves up over this.

If this game were easy, we'd all be millionaires on here http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif. It is a matter of practice and experience. There is simply no substitute for screen time...

The way I look at it is this: I have been trading using my own levels for a long time and I trade them in conjunction with PA. Please don't trade these levels "nakedly" as suggested elsewhere as you will fail - the levels are very good but not infallible as a stand-alone system. Andrewkin has emphasised this several times.

Read my previous posts on trading with simple PA - it is not difficult and it will keep you out of a lot of trouble.

I trade a £5,000 live spread bet account. Conventionally, if you have good levels, you should be looking for a R:R of around 3:1 and a 20 pip stop on the H1 chart. If you risk 2% of account per trade, in my case I used to be looking at £100 with a 20 pip stop so I traded £5/pip.

The great beauty of these lines is that (a) they are very accurate and so I can keep my stop nice and tight and (b) that I am shooting for say 150-200 pips a trade now so my R:R is up to around 8:1 to 10:1.

This means that I can lower my risk AND increase my stake, so greatly adding to my profitability.

FYI, these lines are helping me add around 200 pips a week to my bottom line. Just because there are 1000's of pips on the table does not mean you can rake them into your own pile of chips!!

So don't worry - you don't have to do that well to do very well (if you see what I mean http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif). At £5/pip, I could pay for my monthly subs with just 4 pips, and I am making 50 times that while only exploiting a fraction of the potential of the system.

I am aiming to stick with it and improve both my understanding and my trading.

Very best regards,

Old Dog
  • #235
  • Edited 1:10pm Jan 22, 2011 4:40am | Edited 1:10pm
POTENTIAL PIPS are where price touches or crosses two or more FMRL lines.

FMRL numbers are only useful to traders who understand Price Action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FMRL week 17.01.2011.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #236
  • Edited 6:41am Jan 22, 2011 6:14am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello all,

Don't get hung up on Andrewkin's "safe pips" numbers....
Hi Old_Dog,

Many thanks for your expert contribution to our thread.

On reflection we think Dreamliner is right to raise concerns about the SAFE word.

In this thread we have tried hard to encourage novices to be cautious.

On the other hand, idiots will do their own thing, whatever we suggest.

We have replaced the word SAFE with TARGET.

Is that aright or is there a better word?

Aspirational, but unlikely to to mislead.

Any help here would be appreciated.

Andrew
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  • #237
  • Jan 22, 2011 6:23am Jan 22, 2011 6:23am
Quoting Andrewkin
Hi Old_Dog,

Many thanks for your expert contribution to our thread.

[...]

Is there another word we should use instead of SAFE that is accurate and could not be misleading?

Your guidance would be appreciated.

Andrew
Hello Andrewkin,

I like the word "POTENTIAL" pips.

The system does have enormous potential but requires practice to get there.

So it is a great aspiration to aim for eventually.

But in the meantime while folk are learning, as I said in my last post, you only need to to take a fraction of what's on the table to do really well.

There is nothing like small sucesses in the early days to encourage new traders to knuckle down and "bite the bullet" and put in the time and effort to get into the big league.

So start small, but aim high. You could do very well indeed, IMHO.

Very best regards,

Old Dog
  • #238
  • Jan 22, 2011 6:27am Jan 22, 2011 6:27am
You will be able to get next week's free numbers HERE (http://www.nysco.co.uk/akcb098245zqplazg22h4jfu-24JAN2011-28JAN2011.html).

They will be posted within 90 minutes of market open.

This is the last week FNRL will be freely available here.

You can continue to get our numbers by subscription.

Subscription costs GBP20 a month.

The first month is free.

Subscribe HERE (https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=EL6M8ARFNNNUA).

You can unsubscribe any time HERE (https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_subscr-find&alias=WWV5GDLDB3D6C).

Andrew
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  • #239
  • Jan 22, 2011 6:57am Jan 22, 2011 6:57am
"Potential" pips is perfect! Thanks for your contributions Old Dog, and your flexibility (willingness to change) Andrew. Both appreciated!

Quoting Old_Dog
Hello Andrewkin,

I like the word "POTENTIAL" pips.

The system does have enormous potential but requires practice to get there.

So it is a great aspiration to aim for eventually.

But in the meantime while folk are learning, as I said in my last post, you only need to to take a fraction of what's on the table to do really well.

There is nothing like small sucesses in the early days to encourage new traders to knuckle down and "bite the bullet" and put in the time and effort to get into the big league.

So [i][b]start small, but aim...
  • #240
  • Jan 22, 2011 7:08am Jan 22, 2011 7:08am
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello Andrewkin,

I like the word "POTENTIAL" pips.

The system does have enormous potential but requires practice to get there.

So it is a great aspiration to aim for eventually.

But in the meantime while folk are learning, as I said in my last post, you only need to to take a fraction of what's on the table to do really well.

There is nothing like small sucesses in the early days to encourage new traders to knuckle down and "bite the bullet" and put in the time and effort to get into the big league.

So [i][b]start small,...
Hi Old Dog,

Our posts crossed.

Not sure any of these three words are quite right.

SAFE can be misleading to novice traders.

TARGET undershoots as does POSSIBLE.

We can't think of anything better.

Can anyone?

Andrew
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