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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,021
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:43am Jan 21, 2011 3:43am
hi,

Usd/JPy 4 hours Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy h4.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #5,022
  • Jan 21, 2011 5:06am Jan 21, 2011 5:06am
Ian,


based on the rules for a “Diagonal Triangle type 1” pattern, you have to reconsider your count in post #5020 because wave 1 and 4 must overlap:


http://img834.imageshack.us/i/dtr1.gif/


Sixer
  • #5,023
  • Jan 21, 2011 5:52am Jan 21, 2011 5:52am
Quoting Sixer
Ian,


based on the rules for a “Diagonal Triangle type 1” pattern, you have to reconsider your count in post #5020 because wave 1 and 4 must overlap:


http://img834.imageshack.us/i/dtr1.gif/


Sixer
It's not a diagonal triangle. All impulsive waves develop like this...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,024
  • Jan 21, 2011 9:41am Jan 21, 2011 9:41am
Ian,

i know that this is an impulse pattern - here is the 2nd one:

http://img560.imageshack.us/i/dtr2.gif/

The labelling is done with "1, 2, etc." - but for both, the overlap of wave 2 and 4 is necessary. I can`t see such overlapping and must assume that this pattern must be counted otherwise.

Sixer
  • #5,025
  • Jan 21, 2011 9:58am Jan 21, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Sixer
Ian,

i know that this is an impulse pattern - here is the 2nd one:

http://img560.imageshack.us/i/dtr2.gif/

The labelling is done with "1, 2, etc." - but for both, the overlap of wave 2 and 4 is necessary. I can`t see such overlapping and must assume that this pattern must be counted otherwise.

Sixer
Hi Sixer

Sorry, but I personally feel, after years and years of working with EW, researching wave relationships, that Elliott made a misjudgment in the impulsive wave structure. I don't intend this as any criticism of him as if you think of him in the 1920's he didn't have the benefit of calculators and spreadsheets. Everything had to be long hand.

I posted this a few months back. I call it Harmonic Elliott Wave... For me there are no extended waves and no failed fifths. The only thing a 5-wave structure can end up as is either an A or C. When you use this structure the wave relationships come when using 3-wave structures for Wave (i), (iii) and (v). Furthermore, this structural method is truly fractal as projections for Wave (iii) and Wave (c) of (iii) must be the same, and the Wave v of Wave (c) also. Then Wave (iv) becomes easier to identify. What I find is that the sum of Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) have a tendency to come to 100%. In reality this means between 80% & 120% but makes the structure far easier to observe. Then Wave (v) and Wave (c) of (v) must have the same target and if this is a part of the Wave (C) of a higher degree then the target must be the same.

There is an article and spreadsheet (which is in that post above) providing an introduction on my website www.harmonic-ewave.com.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,026
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:55pm Jan 21, 2011 7:55pm
Hourly chart of the drop:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...urlyupdate.jpg

The decline from the Wave [iv] high came in 5 waves - and therefore a Wave [a] in my terms. The pullback appears to have completed Wave [b] so it's possible to identify the higher risk areas for the expected Wave [v] low...

This is the spreadsheet:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...pdatetable.jpg

You can see the ratios all the way through and how the Wave [c] and Wave [iii] projections matched. Also note that the sum of the Wave [ii] and Wave [iv] percentages came to 84%. That's rather on the low side but within the general 80%-120% range I see. It's actually quite common for the sum to come much closer to 100%...

Anyway, from the spreadsheet the high risk targets are at 77.90-06 being the 61.8% & 66.7% projections in Wave [v] and the 85.4%-95.4% projections in Wave [c]... though can't totally rule out the 76.4% projection...

Update

Wave [c] of Wave [v] well under way and not too far off a major low... Now trying to fine tune the final target bearing in mind those mentioned at: 77.90-06 being the 61.8% & 66.7% projections in Wave [v] and the 85.4%-95.4% projections in Wave [c]... though can't totally rule out the 76.4% projection... at 77.69...

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...5minupdate.jpg

So far we haven't quite reached Wave (iii) lower in the 5 min chart and I suspect we'll see that around 77.94... Wave (ii) was a 38.2% retracement and therefore we can expect a 50% retracement in Wave (iv) that should imply around 78.45. A 61.8% projection in Wave (v) would imply a target at 77.70... so that matches the 76.4% projection in Wave [v]...

The ratio spreadsheet for this Wave [b] of Wave [v] is:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...pdatetable.jpg

Keep in mind the 61.8%-66.7% retracement in daily Wave (b) between 77.57-85... So this should provide the low sometime later on Monday... Thus, we should have a rally in daily Wave (c) higher above the 81.31 high to complete the monthly/weekly triangle...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,027
  • Jan 21, 2011 8:29pm Jan 21, 2011 8:29pm
Before, i take this conversation further; being the way I am; do you have an account or demo with trading results........(ofcourse not) (why -I don't know of anyone who is profitable "that has to explain thinking process"; if it's good for you why are you writing a book shouldn't be good for all of us.......

What I am saying is to make money in this market you need to be professional ( I am not saying you)......That means one has to be like a chinese worker in a Jeans factory who can produce 350 pair of Jeans a day.........They can do that because they are specialized, systematic......and carry out their chores without thinking........



Waves are vibrating exactly the same (in swing size and time proportionality) I don't see that in your analysis.......

AGain if you really know what you are doing and it is working for you plz ignore my comments...........

perhaps if you can make a call with entry and exit based on your analysis then i will be able to follow your thought......and then I can also see important decision points for you and what you do at that time....

Quoting Ian Copsey
Let me explain my thinking process... as there

Has that made things more digestible?! The Harmonic Elliott Wave structure is good for me as it provides greater structural awareness, and the requirement for ratios across wave degrees to match.

However, they're not all perfect, sometimes I scratch my head and wonder what the heck is going on...

Ian
  • #5,028
  • Jan 21, 2011 8:37pm Jan 21, 2011 8:37pm
I like to understand what people are saying and I give it thought; respecting others brains;

So I am confused trying to make sense or an entry using your method.....

so if you can make a call with whatever strategy you use; maybe I can follow and see how this can be useful; whatever I come across usually adds to my trading; especially by knowing what traders are thinking at different times of the Pattern....

I have been able to change my mind on my analysis based on seeing what others post (I tend to be on other side of market)

Quoting Ian Copsey
OK, what part has upset you? I have explained the count I have been using. Yesterday I identified the 1.3537 level as being important being the 38.2% expansion. I prefer the expanded flat scenario. I'm not quite sure why anything in inexplicable...
  • #5,029
  • Jan 22, 2011 1:53am Jan 22, 2011 1:53am
Quoting grandpost
I like to understand what people are saying and I give it thought; respecting others brains;

So I am confused trying to make sense or an entry using your method.....

so if you can make a call with whatever strategy you use; maybe I can follow and see how this can be useful; whatever I come across usually adds to my trading; especially by knowing what traders are thinking at different times of the Pattern....

I have been able to change my mind on my analysis based on seeing what others post (I tend to be on other side of market)
Well, ignore the profit side... it's irrelevant. Totally, 100% irrelevant. We are comparing two versions from a core concept developed by R.N. Elliott.

Let me ask a question in return... So... does EW as it stands now provide entry signals? Can it forecast? From the many variant wave counts, many of which are totally retrospective I'd say that it can't and many people have said the same thing. Even Robert Prechter couldn't claim that it does.

This past week I called a top in the S&P 500 at 1,296 and said that the pullback would reach 1,267. Go see what Prechter called for... I have no idea but he's been a bear for nearly 2 years... I have been calling for the DJIA to reach 11,900-950 for a brief correction and then higher to 12,350-650... First target reached. That can be seen on my website - a call made around 6-7 months ago. It was also made in my book.

You will also see in my book a call for gold to reach 1,396 - and noted a further target at 1,428... Target reached... That is also seen on my website, a call from around 4-6 months ago.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,030
  • Jan 22, 2011 7:48pm Jan 22, 2011 7:48pm
I am not doubting you......but you are starting to sound like prechter.....lol

Prechter is so BIG......it's a conspiracy.......The Knowledge isn't.......His company is an ARMY CITY.......and I know exactly what they are doing and when.......They do it on purpose........so does fxcm...........which is Thomson they run 70 % of global DATA......

I will check your website ........but why , I have you here, so you make a call for me in forex which ever way you do and I follow and see what you are doing........

I have entry signals That work(still getting better) The last 9 calls I made I had 2 wrong and still went broke but I am trying to turn 5,000 to a million....

It can forecast.......It actually shows you THE ONE and ONLY TRUTH.....It is retrospective only with no time......THATS why they don't teach time......Prechter made a million with his method trading ......Have YOU?

I am trying again to understand what you are doing......everything adds and build my trading thought............

So make a CALL......also with time if you can .........in whatever way that you do.............If you don't want to post it for marketing purposes for your website then pm me..............I would prefer Euro/USD..........Then I will JUST FOR YOU pm you where the world will be in the future in price and time......Something till 2014............Then we can truely match and see........I really think you never came across any good elliottician with ETHICS.......

SO again make the Call and maybe I can follow..........



Quoting Ian Copsey
Well, ignore the profit side... it's irrelevant. Totally, 100% irrelevant. We are comparing two versions from a core concept developed by R.N. Elliott.

Let me ask a question in return... So... does EW as it stands now provide entry signals? Can it forecast? From the many variant wave counts, many of which are totally retrospective I'd say that it can't and many people have said the same thing. Even Robert Prechter couldn't claim that it does.

This past week I called a top in the S&P 500 at 1,296 and said that the pullback would reach 1,267. Go...
  • #5,031
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:37pm Jan 22, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting grandpost
I am not doubting you......but you are starting to sound like prechter.....lol

Prechter is so BIG......it's a conspiracy.......The Knowledge isn't.......His company is an ARMY CITY.......and I know exactly what they are doing and when.......They do it on purpose........so does fxcm...........which is Thomson they run 70 % of global DATA......

I will check your website ........but why , I have you here, so you make a call for me in forex which ever way you do and I follow and see what you are doing........

I have entry signals That work(still...
You have the call on the Dollar Index above already...

See: http://stocktwits.com/HarmonicElliottWave

However, remember this is like coding. It is more effective if you know the process and can recognize the basis for the call - that way you can work through the wrinkles...

I'm quite aware of Thomson. I used to work for Telerate... which after a few changes became part of Thomson Reuters and where I still have ex-colleagues.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,032
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:41pm Jan 22, 2011 11:41pm
Ian,


it seems that we all have difficulties to determine the correct/right elliott counts, even with years of experience.


Neely came up with the “neowave” solution, you developed the “harmonic e-wave”, i use the “swing chart feature” of the DT software plus cycle considerations to get it, etc. etc.


The following two EURUSD charts (5 min data) are prepared by using the RET software from Rich Swannell with possible Elliott counts since the low of 10thjan 11. Each count has a rating: The 1st one has the highest, the 2nd one the 5th highest. Both show that the pattern is not finished yet. You will be surprised if you click through all count solutions which are offered from the software because all are correct based on elliott rules:


http://img291.imageshack.us/i/eweurusd15211.gif/


http://img696.imageshack.us/i/eweurusd25211.gif/


If you have the chance to test this, check it by yourself. It helped me a lot to get more experience.


Sixer
  • #5,033
  • Jan 23, 2011 1:42am Jan 23, 2011 1:42am
Quoting Sixer
Ian,...
Hi Sixer

I've been using EW for over 20 years. I've been through the "oh well, it didn't stop at the 161.8% but this looks about right" type approach. I have problems with any EW if they're not using wave relationships. The first thing I always ask is whether they can forecast wave endings... Normally, this is put to one side in favor of eyeballing a chart. If they don't have that, I know from my experience that it's all retrospective. Any EW will always have an element of subjectivity but the requirement for lower degree targets to match with current degree - and where possible higher degree - reduces the subjectivity. With Harmonic Elliott Wave the moves can "talk" by telling you whether something you're following has broken down and identifies at what level... On Friday evening while I was switching emails with a couple of subscribers I told them to buy EURUSD at 1.3503 - that was a 50% retracement in one of the Wave iii developments. They don't always stall at the exact pip - but it's not uncommon either - when I get the structure right. I won't take anything else but a fully fractal, measurable structure...

Ian
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,034
  • Jan 23, 2011 2:09am Jan 23, 2011 2:09am
Quoting Sixer
Ian,


it seems that we all have difficulties to determine the correct/right elliott counts, even with years of experience.


Neely came up with the “neowave” solution, you developed the “harmonic e-wave”, i use the “swing chart feature” of the DT software plus cycle considerations to get it, etc. etc.


The following two EURUSD charts (5 min data) are prepared by using the RET software from Rich Swannell with possible Elliott counts since the low of 10thjan 11. Each count has a rating: The 1st one has the highest, the 2nd one the 5th highest....
Sixer.

I dont know the source you got the charts from .. but they are exactly the same as what i had posted last thursday...

and then I have a dilemma with this one. cause I believe if we break 1.3667 even by one pip... we are heading to 1.3823 to 1.3831.

Ian take a look at this as well.. as to fib relationship...If you could please post your chart.

Thanks
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,035
  • Jan 23, 2011 2:13am Jan 23, 2011 2:13am
2 more charts
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,036
  • Edited 2:38am Jan 23, 2011 2:28am | Edited 2:38am
IAN


Take a look at the weekly .. without labels.

Look at where the 50% fib is ..

I know you do your calculations a bit differently.

But this is the way I do it by combining 3 fibs..giving the secret away...It works on every timeframe...(I had mentioned earlier I will provide how I find the GOLDEN ratio with E/U)

It does not tell the wave target but where the candle should stop at the next FIB...

Now if you combine this with EW...you can have a precise entry +-10 pips no more than that.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,037
  • Jan 23, 2011 3:23am Jan 23, 2011 3:23am
Quoting Raza
Sixer.

I dont know the source you got the charts from .. but they are exactly the same as what i had posted last thursday...

and then I have a dilemma with this one. cause I believe if we break 1.3667 even by one pip... we are heading to 1.3823 to 1.3831.

Ian take a look at this as well.. as to fib relationship...If you could please post your chart.

Thanks
My chart was posted last week - post 5020 and it details the targets. Indeed, we should see 1.3640 first, a pullback and then 1.3700-05... but that should be it...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,038
  • Jan 23, 2011 3:41am Jan 23, 2011 3:41am
Quoting Ian Copsey
My chart was posted last week - post 5020 and it details the targets. Indeed, we should see 1.3640 first, a pullback and then 1.3700-05... but that should be it...
Thanks FOR REPLY..

TARGETS MENTIONED ABOVE are good...Unless we have a big GAP UP..above those levels...

Then its definately something else..

Which should not happen AND IF PRICE BREAKs ABOVE THOSE LEVELS then we will just have a retrace not a reversal....

We will find out sunday Eve..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,039
  • Jan 23, 2011 4:23am Jan 23, 2011 4:23am
Ian,


i have a possible price target of 1.3789 if c = a (red) but this depends on the further pattern in wave “c”:


http://img291.imageshack.us/i/deurusd5211.gif/


(This is the DT chart with 5 min data plus the cycle count).



Raza,


the charts in post #5052 are prepared by using the Refined Elliott Trader software (www.elliottician.com). They confirm your posting #5020.


Sixer
  • #5,040
  • Jan 23, 2011 5:51am Jan 23, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Raza
Thanks FOR REPLY..

TARGETS MENTIONED ABOVE are good...Unless we have a big GAP UP..above those levels...

Then its definately something else..

Which should not happen AND IF PRICE BREAKs ABOVE THOSE LEVELS then we will just have a retrace not a reversal....

We will find out sunday Eve..
I agree, that if price tops at 1.3700-05 the likely outcome will be a correction and not a new low... I am open at this point as I do see the Dollar Index being quite strong but in the last leg of a weekly/monthly triangle - so the eventual implication being Dollar bearish. However, I see more upside potential in USDCHF and USDJPY... The pullback in EURUSD could be quite deep but at this point I'm not convinced that it'll make a new price low. If it does, then it'll not get anywhere close to 1.1879...

Sixer,
If this gets above 1.3700-05 (76.4% projection n Wave -v- and 105.6% in Wave -c- then the next target is at 1.3754-58 being the 85.4% projection in Wave -v- and 123.6% in Wave -c-.

We should also be aware of the Dollar Index which doesn't have very much more downside. I suspect a mild dip on open to just below 78.00 but then a pullback (should equate to a test of 1.3640 EURUSD and a pullback) followed by extension to 77.70 and 1.3700-05 respectively...

77.70 is the 76.4% projection in Wave [v] and the (estimated) 61.8% projection in Wave (v) of Wave [c] of Wave [v]...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
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