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Binary Options: Is this possible?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 17, 2011 6:35pm Jan 17, 2011 6:35pm
I need some help from some one who is very knowledgable about binary bets.

What i want to know is if the following example is possible?

It is Monday evening in the uk, I have checked my cable chart and decide that 1.59 will be touched at some point in the next 5 days, but I will only trade the contract if the payout is exactly the same price as the contract ie £50 if the price is hit and lose £50 if it isn't.

Is this possible?

Thanks J
  • #2
  • Jan 18, 2011 4:49am Jan 18, 2011 4:49am
Well, I don't think this can be possible....I would assume the payout will never approach the principle, i.e. you will never get a 100% payout....The maximum I have seen was something like 85% payout....

And something else, it's not to be touched, the underlying has to finish either higher or lower, so it's all or none for you....


Regards,

Nader
  • #3
  • Jan 18, 2011 6:26am Jan 18, 2011 6:26am
I have never seen payouts of 100%..usually 70%. As well there is another issue with touch options that you have to look into with your broker.

Touch options are normally "sampled" once per day or some other sampling rate.

using your example of of 1.59 and a touch or higher...Let us say that it is sampled at London Close time (4:00 pm London time and the reference is ECB). So throughout the day it could go from 1.58 to 1.60 but at 4:00 pm it is at 1.585. Therefore no touch on that day. It is not a continuous sampling that I have seen.

If you know a broker who uses continuous sampling then please let me know.
  • #4
  • Jan 18, 2011 1:26pm Jan 18, 2011 1:26pm
Thanks for the info guys, I didn't expect that it was going to be as simple as £50 win £50 lose.

Just seen something called custom binary bets which I will look into, might offer something better than normal binaries

Thanks J
  • #5
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:27pm Jan 20, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting slimcat
Thanks for the info guys, I didn't expect that it was going to be as simple as £50 win £50 lose.

Just seen something called custom binary bets which I will look into, might offer something better than normal binaries

Thanks J
You just need to remember and take care, binary options are different from touch options...

Also study the broker or the market maker you are using for binary options...You will be surprised how they structure the binary options trades...

To be honest, that's a typical casino type of thing...You are playing against the house...There is a minimum and a maximum bet...There is a payout, which is usually less than 100% if you win....Sometimes there is a small payout when you lose...In most of the cases I would say, the odds are against you since the bets are very short term by nature (1 Hour), the movements approach randomness and thus, odds of being right or wrong are 50% and since the payout is always less than 100%, then it's a negative expectancy game and you will never win in the long run....


Regards,

Nader
  • #6
  • Jan 21, 2011 1:47am Jan 21, 2011 1:47am
Quoting narafa
Well, I don't think this can be possible....I would assume the payout will never approach the principle, i.e. you will never get a 100% payout....The maximum I have seen was something like 85% payout....

And something else, it's not to be touched, the underlying has to finish either higher or lower, so it's all or none for you....


Regards,

Nader
Nader, can you please let me know a few binary option brokers that you know of?
  • #7
  • Edited 2:01pm Apr 10, 2011 11:41am | Edited 2:01pm
Is it possible to trade this using one touch options?

The chart shows the high of the usa session after london has closed (5pm), I have used the high between 5 pm and 10pm uk time.

Whilst charting the highs and lows of each major session I began to see this price level getting repeatedly hit.

I was curious to see how many times this level was hit the next day starting at 8am London open.

For example; if London opens below usa high, buy it to reach that level, if london opens above, sell it to the usa high (see chart)

From the beginning of this year 14 days took between 2 days and a maximum of 13 days to reach the target, all of the others reached the target the same day.

Only one day started at the level so I did not count this, let's say for example that I only wanted the trade to last for one day, that would mean that there would have been 14 losers, 1 no trade and 54 winners.

Interesting statistics but it is tradeable. Any help appreciated

Thanks J
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:40am Apr 11, 2011 3:40am
Hey guys, not sure if we are talkin bout the same thing here, but with the one touch binaries i trade the, as long as the price either equals or exceeds the strike price at any time during the life of the binary then its a win. the price is not sampled.

Also i have bought (daily one touch binaries for less than 20 and recieved 100 (less the premium) for the win, so not sure what the 50-50 is about.
London: New York: Tokyo - but mostly Rangiora
  • #9
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:57am Apr 11, 2011 11:57am
Hi Doob,

Here is todays chart, long from the open and target hit again.

Forget about the 50 -50 .

Question:
With one touch binaries could I have specified this level to be hit or is it a predetermined strike price?

Thanks J
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:33am Apr 12, 2011 1:33am
Quoting slimcat
Hi Doob,

Here is todays chart, long from the open and target hit again.

Forget about the 50 -50 .

Question:
With one touch binaries could I have specified this level to be hit or is it a predetermined strike price?

Thanks J
hi mate, maybe not that specific price but close to it. cable one touch go up in amounts of 20 pips.So for example you would have strike prices of 1.6010, 1.6030, 1.6050 etc.Now the market for these open with London and once a price gets hit it during the session it is no longer available( via platform anyway) so you can,t just keep playing the same 30 pip range or whatever. Obviously the farther the strike price is away from the actual price the better price you get.

Hope this helps and good luck.
Probably best if you open a demo account and just take loads of trades without bothering if you win or loose just to get a feel for how they work.
Oh yeah and another thing, you don,t have to wait for expiry to close out, so you can take profits if price seams to be stalling or cut a looser.

All the best
London: New York: Tokyo - but mostly Rangiora
  • #11
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:43am Apr 12, 2011 3:43am
doobs,

can you tell me the broker you use as I would like to open a demo.

thanks.
  • #12
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:50am Apr 12, 2011 4:50am
Quoting flyer415
doobs,

can you tell me the broker you use as I would like to open a demo.

thanks.
Hi flyer, I use IG markets for my binaries. From what i remeber the demo version that I used( I,m in NZ) wasn't showing the one touch for some reason so I opened another one through their uk site which did.

All the best.
London: New York: Tokyo - but mostly Rangiora
  • #13
  • Edited 2:09pm Apr 18, 2011 1:20pm | Edited 2:09pm
Hey Doobs,

With your experience in binaries or one touch trades would this work...

At 10pm uk time, the start of a new daily candle, place two one touch trades, both for 20 pips, one to go up 20 and the other to go down 20 pips from the open.

Binaries are either true or false and the market has to move away from the opening price, that is guaranteed, that means one of the trades will always win.

Let's say for example the market (cable) only went up from the open and didn't move down 20 , one trade will win and one trade will lose, therefore the result is to lose the spread??

What if both conditions are true, both trades win 20 pips. (- spread of course)

I would estimate that the market moves up 20 and down 20 pips from the open price greater than 50 per cent of the time.

On paper seems like a winner?

Thanks J
  • #14
  • Apr 19, 2011 12:41pm Apr 19, 2011 12:41pm
' I would estimate that the market moves up 20 and down 20 pips from the open price greater than 50 per cent of the time.'

A quick look at the cable chart from the beginning of the year 2011 produces 26 days where the price does not move 20 pips down and 20 pips up from the day open .

51 days ...both targets are hit.

Where are the experts on one touch trades when you need them

Thanks J
  • #15
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:44am Apr 20, 2011 4:44am
Quoting slimcat
Hey Doobs,

With your experience in binaries or one touch trades would this work...

At 10pm uk time, the start of a new daily candle, place two one touch trades, both for 20 pips, one to go up 20 and the other to go down 20 pips from the open.

Binaries are either true or false and the market has to move away from the opening price, that is guaranteed, that means one of the trades will always win.

Let's say for example the market (cable) only went up from the open and didn't move down 20 , one trade will win and one trade will lose, therefore...
Hi slim, sorry only just noticed this post!
Couple of pointers; Firstly the market for one touch go from London open and close about 8pm London, they do not start @ the daily open on your bar charts.( at least with ig anyway.

Also just because there is a 20 pip movement in the spot doesn't mean that the binary will be worth 20pips. Because the target that you are going for is very close and you basically have 2 sessions (London & NY) for them to get hit the binary might be priced @ something like 90(just a guess - haven't checked), added to this the fact that the spread on the binary will be greater than you pay on the spot you can see how this could effect your strategy. Basically what your saying though is correct- if the market just goes in one direction then you will just loose the spread.

Oh yeah, just want to make it absolutely clear - I'm no expert!!! Just trying to find my way like everyone else on here

All the best mate - Ian
London: New York: Tokyo - but mostly Rangiora
  • #16
  • Last Post: Nov 25, 2012 12:25am Nov 25, 2012 12:25am
Quoting flyer415
doobs,

can you tell me the broker you use as I would like to open a demo.

thanks.
I recently opened an account with Beaned ...so far so good ....plus point is they gave me a free subscription to an otherwise paid premarket news service...
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