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MACD Risk System

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 27, 2011 12:46am Jan 20, 2011 12:25am | Edited Jan 27, 2011 12:46am
LONG ENTRY:

When MACD is over the 0 line and the color of the MACD is green.

LONG EXIT:

When MACD is below the 0 line or the color of the MACD is red.


SHORT ENTRY:

When MACD is below the 0 line and the color of the MACD is red.

SHORT EXIT:

When MACD is over the 0 line or the color of the MACD is green.


This is how I use this indicator.

So...The indicator is drawing a green/red bar if the long presure vs short presure is over/below 50/50 and at 50/50.
The indicator have a Smoother and it is quite useful on short timeframes.
The smoother works better then the standart 9 SMA.
What the indicator offer?!
I've put a lot of work on this...
I have been searching for a way to calculate the trend risk for a few weeks.
If you are a seasoned trader you have to know that we dont buy/sell EUR/USD,USDCHF...bla..bla...bla...
THE THING THAT WE BUY AND SELL IS...THE RISK.
So if I can see what is the chance of the MACD to continue uptrending or the chance of the MACD to go down... - We can know does the deal worth the risk.

If In a UPTREND a new red bar occurs - the risk is not in your favor.
AND VS
If In a DOWNTREND a new green bar occurs - the risk is not in your favor.

THANKS TO:

Indiana Pips for his work on making the indicator to work on Jforex Platform.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 33 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD CHANCE v1.2.mq4   2 KB | 2,797 downloads | Uploaded Jan 22, 2011 3:04am
File Type: mq4 MACD RISK v1.2.mq4   4 KB | 3,602 downloads | Uploaded Jan 22, 2011 3:04am
File Type: tpl macd risk temp.tpl   1 KB | 1,799 downloads | Uploaded Jan 22, 2011 1:14pm
File Type: zip MacdRiskie for Jforex Platform by Indiana PIP.zip   12 KB | 1,694 downloads | Uploaded Jan 27, 2011 12:46am
  • #2
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:43am Jan 20, 2011 12:43am
I use the MACD(default) in a basically similar fashion on a simple system found here @ FF. Continue I'm in.

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  • #3
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:12am Jan 20, 2011 1:12am
I see...
How do you trade this system?
I am trading with the main trend and if and only if the MACD chance is in my favor.
Shanexx your MACD is colored on a low bar high bar principle.
This is nothing like that.The things that it calculate at the end provide a signal for the chance of detrending.
If you use a low bar/high bar you see the trend of the MA's which represent the price action....far away from reality price action.

Be Right Back -10 min
  • #4
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:37am Jan 20, 2011 1:37am
I can't hedge trade(IBFX) so I improvised, that's a cool 10 pips and still going.
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  • #5
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:38am Jan 20, 2011 1:38am
Quoting SkyStriker
LONG ENTRY:
[left][b]When MACD is over the...

thanks for putting this up. i like such simple systems. how about the profitability ? what are the ideal pairs and timeframes ?
  • #6
  • Edited 2:06am Jan 20, 2011 2:00am | Edited 2:06am
Quoting SkyStriker
I see...
How do you trade this system?
I am trading with the main trend and if and only if the MACD chance is in my favor.
Shanexx your MACD is colored on a low bar high bar principle.
This is nothing like that.The things that it calculate at the end provide a signal for the chance of detrending.
If you use a low bar/high bar you see the trend of the MA's which represent the price action....far away from reality price action.

Be Right Back -10 min
Ingenious indi,I always have to improvise and that is what my system is all about.
For a buy:
50SMA < 21 EMA
21EMA < 10 EMA
MACD > 0
MACD fast > MACD slow
Look for a candle that open < 10EMA and close > 10EMA
Enter trade on next candle open > 10EMA
Vice versa for a sell
  • #7
  • Edited 2:17am Jan 20, 2011 2:04am | Edited 2:17am
Quoting roundrock
thanks for putting this up. i like such simple systems. how about the profitability ? what are the ideal pairs and timeframes ?
I use the MACD RISK at D1 TF on EUR/USD
I did not have the time to test it,i was writing the indicator.
You can try it...and share your settings and results with us.
I am thinking about reentering trade if the risk get back from negative to positive.


At the first X symbol the chances are exactly 50/50
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  • #8
  • Jan 20, 2011 2:13am Jan 20, 2011 2:13am
Quoting Shanexx
Ingenious indi,I always have to improvise and that is what my system is all about.
For a buy:
50SMA < 21 EMA
21EMA < 10 EMA
MACD > 0
MACD fast > MACD slow
Look for a candle that open < 10EMA and close > 10EMA
Enter trade on next candle open > 10EMA
Vice versa for a sell
You are out of your mind joke

I had the same problem too many MA's and on top of that I had to measure the distance between several MA's and find what % of change is that versus the same MA's 1 bar back....
FORGET ABOUT IT!!!
That's why I have a MT4 I dont like mathematics since i've studied Advanced Mathematics a few years ago.
  • #9
  • Jan 20, 2011 2:15am Jan 20, 2011 2:15am
Quoting SkyStriker
I use the MACD RISK at D1 TF on EUR/USD
I did not have the time to test it,i was writing the indicator.
You can try it...and share your settings and results with us.
I am thinking about reentering trade if the risk get back from negative to positive.
thanks for the reply and test results

can we make this as EA ? Then it becomes easy to backtest. if you post the source code for the indi, i can write EA.

on the chart, there's a sell signal on nov 15. is that correct ?

once it crosess 0 line, i thought you can take only first signal. wait until it crosses 0 line in opposite direction. but you are taking several trades. is that fine ? from dec 2009 to sept 2010 its above 0 line. so i thought we take only first trade (664 pips) and wait till sep 2010
  • #10
  • Edited 3:00am Jan 20, 2011 2:28am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting roundrock
thanks for the reply and test results

can we make this as EA ? Then it becomes easy to backtest. if you post the source code for the indi, i can write EA.

on the chart, there's a sell signal on nov 15. is that correct ?

once it crosess 0 line, i thought you can take only first signal. wait until it crosses 0 line in opposite direction. but you are taking several trades. is that fine ? from dec 2009 to sept 2010 its above 0 line. so i thought we take only first trade (664 pips) and wait till sep 2010
I take one trade only,but I am thinking about taking all the trades.
It is nov 12 or 14.

I dont want to post the code because there are a few a**holes that sales other peoples work.
I've seen the Sidus and THV systems for sale a few times.
I can make a EA if there is enough interest in the indicator.

Take a look at the smoother of the signal.
I have tried on 1H chart 12,26,10

I will be offline for the next 6-10 hours...I have to sleep from time to time.
If you have any ideas I will be glad to see them.
  • #11
  • Jan 20, 2011 3:53am Jan 20, 2011 3:53am
I can't remember when last I had so much fun. Took this one and still going. A flat or not so angled histo usually means ranging. I'm betting to the top. GU is cooking. Thanks for a delightful indi. A real improvement on the MACD.
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  • #12
  • Jan 20, 2011 4:10am Jan 20, 2011 4:10am
Seems to be a good indicator I am using in M15 CHART to reduce the noise
  • #13
  • Jan 20, 2011 6:15am Jan 20, 2011 6:15am
Still going. Moved to breakeven plus.

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  • #14
  • Jan 20, 2011 7:03am Jan 20, 2011 7:03am
Quoting SkyStriker
I dont want to post the code because there are a few a**holes that sales other peoples work.
I've seen the Sidus and THV systems for sale a few times.
I can make a EA if there is enough interest in the indicator.
You can post the code because once you posted ex4 it can get decompiled in minutes, so not posting the source gives you no protection anyway. Once it's out, it's out, you can't protect it.

What is the difference comparing to standard MACD?
  • #15
  • Jan 20, 2011 7:12am Jan 20, 2011 7:12am
Quoting SkyStriker
I take one trade only,but I am thinking about taking all the trades.................

If you have any ideas I will be glad to see them.
Not sure if ideas was for take every trade or ideas for ea.

On trade ideas.

 

  1. Histogram divergence with colour change + correct candle. 3 examples shown.
  2. Resumption of trend, higher low with histo colour change to green + green candle. Or lower high with histo turning red + red candle. Example of each shown.

This is how I look to analyse daily. Potentially more trades and also some buys on green below 0 line and red sells above 0.

This chart has a standard macd histo on, just for comparison. Bars seem the same but as you have mentioned its not a high/low bar colour change but has your tweak.

Anyway just shout if you have no interest in the additional trades and I won't mention further.

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  • #16
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:00am Jan 20, 2011 11:00am
Quoting Shanexx
I can't remember when last I had so much fun. Took this one and still going. A flat or not so angled histo usually means ranging. I'm betting to the top. GU is cooking. Thanks for a delightful indi. A real improvement on the MACD.Attachment
I got some bad results when i try to smooth the signal.
As I smooth the signal the results are bad and that's a good thing.
That means that the indicator is in its top performance without smoothing(set to 0).
  • #17
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:26am Jan 20, 2011 11:26am
Quoting hotstorm
You can post the code because once you posted ex4 it can get decompiled in minutes, so not posting the source gives you no protection anyway. Once it's out, it's out, you can't protect it.

What is the difference comparing to standard MACD?
I am protecting the mathematical formula for calculating the indicator.
The formula can be used on other indis like CCI,RSI and so.
I will do my best to get as much problems for the decompilers as possible.
I will post the code when it is popular enought and that way the stupid decompilers that cant get out with anything good will get out uf bussines.

Quoting Vantage
Not sure if ideas was for take every trade or...

Vantage I have sent you a PM and if you like you can post it here.
  • #18
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:47am Jan 20, 2011 11:47am
Skystriker,

Thanks for sharing the MACD RISK indicator. It's fun to work with...and we all hope it leads to greater profitability.

I have a strange anomally. On FXDD, the indicator works fine on all time frames...EXCEPT the H1 chart displays all green bars (no red) regardless of the magnification levels. I would like to trade it on the H1 chart more than any of the others. Is this just affecting my setup, or are others experiencing the same?

Best of trading!
BC2
  • #19
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:57am Jan 20, 2011 11:57am
Quoting Bobcat2
Skystriker,

Thanks for sharing the MACD RISK indicator. It's fun to work with...and we all hope it leads to greater profitability.

I have a strange anomally. On FXDD, the indicator works fine on all time frames...EXCEPT the H1 chart displays all green bars (no red) regardless of the magnification levels. I would like to trade it on the H1 chart more than any of the others. Is this just affecting my setup, or are others experiencing the same?

Best of trading!
BC2
Smoother is not the standart SMA that the MACD use.
Smoother by default is set to 0 anything more than 0 will result in lag of the signal.
Smoother is iMAOnArray("UPTRENDBuffer",Bars,"SmootherPERIOD",0,MODE_SMA,i)
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  • #20
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:20pm Jan 20, 2011 12:20pm
SkyStriker,

Yes...I had your settings correct...problem persists. So, I installed MACD RISK on a different broker's MT4 platform, and it works just fine. My FXDD is a 4 digit setup whereas my PFG Best is a 5 digit setup. Could that be the culprit? I would expect all of the time frames to be flawed if that were the case.

Thanks for your help,
BC2
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