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vsa with Malcolm

  • #10,301
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:43am Jan 20, 2011 8:43am
Heres a nice example real time on the eur, test.
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  • #10,302
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:44am Jan 20, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Heres a nice example real time on the eur, test.
Sorry nd not test.
  • #10,303
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:48am Jan 20, 2011 8:48am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Large amount of buying on all dips, We have temporarily stalled at an old top for a test of supple, I dont think that it will be the last attempt to break esspecially with the eurusd being weak.
Update.
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  • #10,304
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:50am Jan 20, 2011 8:50am
Last one for the day, +20
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  • #10,305
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:51am Jan 20, 2011 8:51am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Sorry nd not test.
yes that is a very good example of what i am very confused about, why is it ND?
cause it looks like it cannot break the support.
  • #10,306
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:52am Jan 20, 2011 8:52am
Just a quick 15m, the last two were 5m showing my entry/exit but here is the 15m showing some of the bigger picture, also stopping volume on the 1h was supporting me before entering.
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  • #10,307
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:55am Jan 20, 2011 8:55am
as mentioned earlier in response to pres78 i find reading H4 charts difficult. Took another look at the H1 and M15 charts, and indeed this down move does look more like a shakeout. I would appreciate comments on my analysis.

The last H1 bar does not look weak to me, rather looks like a no selling pressure as EU moved down to the 3412 line (the breakout line from the consolidation area).

Honestly was not expecting to move down to test this line this fast. Isn't a test this fast a good sign of more strength to come? Of concern however is the lack of volume at 3412 area to stop the move, so maybe we drift down some more?

Plus yesterday's NY down move on decreasing volume and the asia/london up move on increasing volume on the H1 still confirm the uptrend.

Interestingly enough, the funnymentals we all US positive today which adds weight to fuel the shakeout.

Still on the sidelines watching, but more importantly learning!

Please comment on my analysis.
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Change is the only constant
  • #10,308
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:58am Jan 20, 2011 8:58am
on the 15m i see a 2bar downthrust with volume, and hopefully have picked a NS to get long on the 5M ... though it does look heavy so wont be too optimistic for the topside...maybe some short covering from london close?
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #10,309
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:58am Jan 20, 2011 8:58am
Quoting frankkn
Just a quick 15m, the last two were 5m showing my entry/exit but here is the 15m showing some of the bigger picture, also stopping volume on the 1h was supporting me before entering.
Hi frankn,

Can you show your stopping vol on the H1. I see some around the 3440 level but we then broke below but no more volume around 3412 as it pushed up back to 3440.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,310
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:59am Jan 20, 2011 8:59am
Quoting AngelineW
yes that is a very good example of what i am very confused about, why is it ND?
cause it looks like it cannot break the support.
I have too much going on today and posting too fast, that bar is actually a NS ( I incorreclt labled it twice, sorry). Price came down to a previous area of selling, at that point we had a tight range lowest volume of the day bar closing on its bottom half. Smart money had no intrest in marking prices down further, next bar closed up on higher volume wider spread confirming the analysis.

Hope that helped.
  • #10,311
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:01am Jan 20, 2011 9:01am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Update.
Yep, another upthrust on the 20min chart though. Possible long opportunity on Cable too (i missed it cos i was doing something else) but i'm probably done for the day i'd say. Getting a bit late now.
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  • #10,312
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:03am Jan 20, 2011 9:03am
Quoting tgwhbb
Hi frankn,

Can you show your stopping vol on the H1. I see some around the 3440 level but we then broke below but no more volume around 3412 as it pushed up back to 3440.
UHV down bar closing off the lows right into unfair lows. Sellers are probably hesitant to short into a virgin POC as well as last week's close. There also is a demand area to the left here.

It may not have been perfect but I was willing to go after the 20 pips before London closed given what was below (and the WSD on UHV closing off the lows)
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  • #10,313
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:06am Jan 20, 2011 9:06am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I have too much going on today and posting too fast, that bar is actually a NS ( I incorreclt labled it twice, sorry). Price came down to a previous area of selling, at that point we had a tight range lowest volume of the day bar closing on its bottom half. Smart money had no intrest in marking prices down further, next bar closed up on higher volume wider spread confirming the analysis.

Hope that helped.
hmmm can anyone correct me on this .. so if there is a low vol and slow spread that is unable to break the top resistance it is ND, if it is near the support and unable to go down further it is a NS right? cause i can only confirm it when it closes pass the S/R
  • #10,314
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:06am Jan 20, 2011 9:06am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Yep, another upthrust on the 20min chart though. Possible long opportunity on Cable too (i missed it cos i was doing something else) but i'm probably done for the day i'd say. Getting a bit late now.
Agreed, that bar took out stops above the .3000 level, now we might churn sideways for a bit. I think higher prices are on the horizon for sure but now would be sitting on my hands.
  • #10,315
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:09am Jan 20, 2011 9:09am
Quoting AngelineW
hmmm can anyone correct me on this .. so if there is a low vol and slow spread that is unable to break the top resistance it is ND, if it is near the support and unable to go down further it is a NS right? cause i can only confirm it when it closes pass the S/R
Master the markets by Tom williams has a great chapter on this. I think your would benifit greatly from reading this.
  • #10,316
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:15am Jan 20, 2011 9:15am
Quoting frankkn
UHV down bar closing off the lows right into unfair lows. Sellers are probably hesitant to short into a virgin POC as well as last week's close. There also is a demand area to the left here.

It may not have been perfect but I was willing to go after the 20 pips before London closed given what was below (and the WSD on UHV closing off the lows)
Thanks! now i'm concerned as i check my live acct and fxcm demo acct and that bar you have as UHV is actually the opposite on both my broker feeds (half the volume of the previous 3 bars with my live acct feed). Turned to my ForexCharts feed from eSignal and sure enough it has the same volume as you are showing. that changes things drastically

Anyone know if it possible to take the eSignal feed i'm getting through ForexCharts and plug it into MT4? the ForexCharts software i have from my broker is painful to use as you need to keep refreshing the chart to get volume updates.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,317
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:19am Jan 20, 2011 9:19am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Master the markets by Tom williams has a great chapter on this. I think your would benifit greatly from reading this.
hee... looks like i need to go through section 1 again read it till i get it
  • #10,318
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:20am Jan 20, 2011 9:20am
Quoting AngelineW
hmmm can anyone correct me on this .. so if there is a low vol and slow spread that is unable to break the top resistance it is ND, if it is near the support and unable to go down further it is a NS right? cause i can only confirm it when it closes pass the S/R
post #8047 and #8127
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #10,319
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:20am Jan 20, 2011 9:20am
Angeline,

The two bars are (typically) as follows;

No Demand - UP bar, narrow spread, close on middle or highs with volume less than the previous two bars. Weakness has to be in the background. Not every bar with these properties will be a ND bar.

No Supply - DOWN bar, narrow spread, close on middle or low with volume less than the previous two bars. Strength has to be in the background. Not every bar with these properties will be a NS bar.

I've attached two charts highlighting these. The No demand is a sell from yesterday on EUR/CHF and the No Supply chart is a buy on EUR/USD from the middle of December. Hope these help
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  • #10,320
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:36am Jan 20, 2011 9:36am
Man work has been nuts today but I was able to get into 1 VSA trade. The only question I have is could I have gotten in lower down on the 2 bar reversal? Is that a safe entry?

I waited and got in after a NS on which the entry bar also passed above the Hull. I took 2 lots and closed one at 1:1 for 32 pips and moved the other to BE and will let it run.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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