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vsa with Malcolm

  • #10,221
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:52pm Jan 19, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting Intel

Only increase the amount of BR at risk when you can regularly identify 9 or 10 winning traes in a row. The psychological hit when losing a large amount of your money can be crushing.
Intel, what is BR?
Change is the only constant
  • #10,222
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:01pm Jan 19, 2011 3:01pm
I know I said that this is not the thread for Auction Market Theory (AMT), but I had to post this.

This was never intended to make its way on this thread, but rather if was for my trading journal. Yesterday brought an very nice short set-up when the VSA and AMT came together. We saw price trade to an "unfair high". We know it's "unfair" because of the little time spent there.

At the same time VSA was showing a wide spread up candle/bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next candle/bar down. We know markets do not like wide spread up bars on Ultra High Volume because they can contain hidden selling.

Price moves down a bit and then we get a nice Up Thrust. This Up Thrust is in the right place as there is weakness in the background. 2 intervals later, we get a nice squat. I would prefer a No Demand, but this squat shows weakness too. The volume is increasing as the range is being compressed. Something is keeping the range narrow: Supply.

Backing up for a second, note that as price closed below the close of the wide spread candle/bar, we do not get another close above. The first place to assume the trigger level is going to be is the close (we all know the importance of the close in VSA). Our Up Thrust trades above that level but closes well below. As price attempts to move up to this level again, we see a squat.

From an AMT standpoint, we know that if price trades outside of the value area and then comes back into the value area, there is an 80% chance that it will trade all the way to the other side of the vale area.

So that is the non-VSA idea to take advantage of when the VSA signal appears.

Just one note: this was using the developing profile so you do have to wait for the areas to be established. Usually, you want to be using the prior days levels.

EDIT: We never did make it to the other side.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,223
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:12pm Jan 19, 2011 3:12pm
Okay, bedtime. Don't forget that Rob Hoffman is trading live tomorrow. Check TG or Infintity Futures websites for details.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,224
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:14pm Jan 19, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Intel, what is BR?
'Bank Roll'

Your account size.
  • #10,225
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:24pm Jan 19, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting Intel
'Bank Roll'

Your account size.
ah! Cheers!
Change is the only constant
  • #10,226
  • Jan 19, 2011 4:33pm Jan 19, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I know I said that this is not the thread for Auction Market Theory (AMT), but I had to post this.

This was never intended to make its way on this thread, but rather if was for my trading journal. Yesterday brought an very nice short set-up when the VSA and AMT came together. We saw price trade to an "unfair high". We know it's "unfair" because of the little time spent there.

At the same time VSA was showing a wide spread up candle/bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next candle/bar down....
Oh man you guys are incredible.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #10,227
  • Edited 5:07pm Jan 19, 2011 4:44pm | Edited 5:07pm
Hi Hidden Gap,

I also use Ensign with a Price Histogram. I also put on another one and just use the volume histogram line also. The volume POC tracks close to the Price POC.

For fun put the Price Histogram on a Daily Chart. The histogram will be for a Month to Month. You can track the monthly POC al it developes.

If you really want to get crazy put it on a weekly chart. Then the histogram is from year to year.

I love Ensign.

Make a template of histogram so you can quickly apply it to other charts and time periods

I use there volume histogram with esignal. I have put a 1 period average true range with a fine black line that sits inside the volume histogram. This shows the spread of each candle inside the volume histogram. Visually helpfull to compare candle to candle spread
  • #10,228
  • Jan 19, 2011 4:59pm Jan 19, 2011 4:59pm
Hidden Gap,


Two other things, try putting the Price Histogram right on the 5 minute chart, so you can watch price action within the histogram.

Also go to Properties under Price Histogram and check the box -extend bands-this will carry over yesterdays value area lines to current day. And like I said if its on the 5 minute chart , you can watch the current candle interact with POC and Value area lines.

You do not have to use the price histogram only on a 30 minute. It works great on a 5 min-15 min also.





Quoting HiddenGap
I know I said that this is not the thread for Auction Market Theory (AMT), but I had to post this.

This was never intended to make its way on this thread, but rather if was for my trading journal. Yesterday brought an very nice short set-up when the VSA and AMT came together. We saw price trade to an "unfair high". We know it's "unfair" because of the little time spent there.

At the same time VSA was showing a wide spread up candle/bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next candle/bar down....
  • #10,229
  • Jan 19, 2011 5:20pm Jan 19, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting Beljevina
And lovely and picturesque it is indeed! I go out of my way to buy Ireland coffee table books, and would love to come and visit, but alas, I have many kiddies that would dampen the experience.

I in fact reign from Croatia, and have a huge affinity for the Irish people: few have talked about and so fiercely tried to defend the traditional meaning of sovereignty not only through this 'crisis' but through history. And, you were among the first to diplomatically recognize Croatia in 1992 (Iceland was 1st). I plan to buy a pub round for when I do...
idont see anythin to celebrate,just because croatia bosnia and slovenia wanted to go independent from yugoslavia,because they had western infiltrators in their government we had to have a 3 year war,i mean if we didnt things would be much better right now,

see the sanader politician in croatia ,he stole milions if it wasnt for guys like him,yugoslavia would live in abundancy,life used to be much better in socialism,well depends for who actually ,my family was from croatia and they always lived better than guys in serbia,because serbia was always corrupt
  • #10,230
  • Jan 19, 2011 7:15pm Jan 19, 2011 7:15pm
Okay, can't sleep. Must be all the hookers and blow. Just kidding, I don't do drugs.

Going to try again, but I wanted to post this chart first.

I did not take this trade because I have the discipline not to trade at this time of day/night. This is however a trade I would take during my trading hours for the very same reason.

From a pure VSA standpoint the place to put the stop is a tick or two below the Stopping volume bar. This bar has Ultra High volume and forms our trigger level at the close.

Price moves up after stopping volume and then rolls over and head back down to the trigger level. But it is moving there on low volume. We get a No just above the trigger level. The next bar is narrow and does not make a higher high. The bar after that is again down and again on volume less than the previous two bars-No Supply.

The next bar has some demand and brings us into the market. Unfortunately, the close is in the middle of the range and that is not a good sign. Nevertheless, we are in on the long side with an initial stop just below the low of the stopping volume bar. (the pic makes it look further away than it has to be).

Price quickly turns on us and heads back down. Price trades below the trigger level. Some would look to exit here, but you need to give a little room. Two bars later, we get a nice demand bar. It still closes lower than the trigger level but it is now closing a bit below the VAL. If this bar was not screaming "Demand", this would be the place to exit. However, it is so we wait.

Price does not disappoint as it begins to move back up. Our joy is short lived as price turns around again and heads lower. This time we do get a close below the VAL that comes on a bar not showing strength. We get out.

Our initial stop level is a fail safe. If the market allows, we will not actual wait that long to get out if price is moving against us. At that level we know we are wrong. But rather than looking for the market to prove us wrong, we should be looking for the market to prove us right.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,231
  • Jan 19, 2011 7:26pm Jan 19, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting seeit
...I love Ensign...
Me too. Ensign rocks. I am new to it and for a bit there I was going crazy with all one can do with it. I love to go to Dacharts and check out other trader's charts.

The programming language is a b&%C* and DYOs are too, but I am a big fan.

Quoting seeit
...Two other things, try putting the Price Histogram right on the 5 minute chart, so you can watch price action within the histogram...You do not have to use the price histogram only on a 30 minute. It works great on a 5 min-15 min also.
Mike Jardine of Enthios.com is a big fan of tthe price histogram on a 5 min chart and uses it in his Universal method. I just have a 30 because its the most widely used.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,232
  • Jan 19, 2011 7:57pm Jan 19, 2011 7:57pm
Hi HG


now that this analysis is in hinsight thou .. and iam biased to look why this trade
has turned out at a loss ..

but still signs are there why u could at least had been stoped out at BE


first the wide spread down bar .. on high volume (breakdown)
then the stopping volume .. wich could have conatined profit taking ..

then as we have a reaction (upswing) .. but it decreases on volume also the spreads get narrower .. and the closes tend to cluster .. aswells a they are of the high.. would be a big Warning sign.. as we are at a retest of the breakdown... .. now the bells should whistle.. and we should think about pulling the stop to BE ....
the high volume within the decreasing volume flow.. are 1st one bar closing of the low .. (supply) .. and 2nd an upbar followed .. by a down bar.. (supply) ...



so supply swamps demand.. on that level... all signs of supply still present on that level.. + no demand.. to the upside..


clear signs of weakness. there.. thou

waht do ya think.. ?
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  • #10,233
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:15pm Jan 19, 2011 8:15pm
Aggressive entry at some confluence. Circled is an "unfair" price level which is right at a supply level and the last POC.
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  • #10,234
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:37pm Jan 19, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting frankkn
Aggressive entry at some confluence. Circled is an "unfair" price level which is right at a supply level and the last POC.
Stop to break even at the most recent POC. I'm targeting just above 1.3400 as that's last week's close and it would offer amazing r:r.
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  • #10,235
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:44pm Jan 19, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Okay, can't sleep. Must be all the hookers and blow. Just kidding, I don't do drugs.

Going to try again, but I wanted to post this chart first.

I did not take this trade because I have the discipline not to trade at this time of day/night. This is however a trade I would take during my trading hours for the very same reason.


Here I was thinking I was starting to get better at this. Still so much to learn...but thank you HG for that detailed analysis. That post is definitely getting bookmarked.

I actually got lucky as i accidentally set my stop wrong and it was lower than the london low, so didn't actually get stopped out at 3430 as i stated in my post.

Got back home to see eu at 3430 level and finding some support so decided to be patient. As it went back up to the daily pivot, volume was high and the next bar down followed by what looked like a ND so i set my stop to the low of the ND figuring if it breaks the ND bar it will drop, otherwise I may still have a chance to get even, that was worth the 6 pips IMO. As you can see EU fell through the ND bar and my stop was triggered for -12.

Learned a new lesson today - DISCIPLINE. I knew better than to open a trade near the NY close.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,236
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:51pm Jan 19, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting dragan53
idont see anythin to celebrate,just because croatia bosnia and slovenia wanted to go independent from yugoslavia,because they had western infiltrators in their government we had to have a 3 year war,i mean if we didnt things would be much better right now,

see the sanader politician in croatia ,he stole milions if it wasnt for guys like him,yugoslavia would live in abundancy,life used to be much better in socialism,well depends for who actually ,my family was from croatia and they always lived better than guys in serbia,because serbia was always...
Western infiltrators? Life would be better under communism? How's that workin' out elsewhere?

You're obviously less than 12 years old. I didn't mention anything along the lines of what you're bringing up, nor did anyone ask for your ignorant forecast on what would have been, much less an assessment of whether or not there is "something to celebrate." What you have rambled on about is Serbia's warping of events to justify their actions, as preached daily in Serb media: the fact is Serbia was the aggressor towards other peoples, and countries. It's also a fact there was no war damage in Serbia, short of the sprinkling they got from NATO, while the Serb/YU army bombed the present, past and future prosperity out of it's neighbors, and then went about cementing a territorial land grab, which thankfully, in the end failed. If you feel absolving financial thievery would make life better while remaining under a 'socialist' regime, then you have a lot to study from history.

Let's not let this take off where it usually does ... I simply remarked I wanted to buy the Irish a round. You responded, I rebuttled, and I think we've each taken up too much space. Sorry to other readers, but when 150,000+ people lose their lives in a recent decade, revising history, misappropriating blame and justifying actions doesn't strike me as something to not comment on.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming ...
  • #10,237
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:36pm Jan 19, 2011 11:36pm
Quoting frankkn
Stop to break even at the most recent POC. I'm targeting just above 1.3400 as that's last week's close and it would offer amazing r:r.
Stopped at break even
  • #10,238
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:49pm Jan 19, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting dreamtheater
Thanks Gez40
This is great stuff thanks
  • #10,239
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:10am Jan 20, 2011 12:10am
nice shake out on es and gu today IMHO

I will be looking to buy es above 1282 tomorrow for a breakout of 1300

Gu dropped in asia on NO volume ... looks like a mark down to me

My trigger is 1.5970 in us session or before with tp 1.6100 area

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #10,240
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:00am Jan 20, 2011 1:00am
Found something very interesting on the 15min Eurusd
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right?
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