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vsa with Malcolm

  • #10,201
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:41am Jan 19, 2011 11:41am
Quoting HiddenGap
I have 1.34810 as today's developing POC, what do you have?
What is POC?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #10,202
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:47am Jan 19, 2011 11:47am
Quoting pres78
What is POC?
Point of Control. its the price range/value where there is the most volume for the day. search for the marketprofile indy on this thread if you are using MT4. It will show you the profile of volume distribution and draw a line at the price where the most volume has occured for the day - the POC line.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,203
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:48am Jan 19, 2011 11:48am
Hi,

How is dukascopy volume if anyone uses it? I have the iPad app and I like it very easy to use but it is simple basically naked chart.

Oz
  • #10,204
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:58am Jan 19, 2011 11:58am
Here's a trade that hit my TP before I could post it.

The first chart shows selling, we bust below the POC and tested it with a ND, I was short on the break for a quick 1:1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,205
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:58am Jan 19, 2011 11:58am
Forgot to attach the second
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: j19b.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #10,206
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:00pm Jan 19, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Point of Control. its the price range/value where there is the most volume for the day. search for the marketprofile indy on this thread if you are using MT4. It will show you the profile of volume distribution and draw a line at the price where the most volume has occured for the day - the POC line.
OK I see... yes I have seen that indicator but have never tried using it. Is POC a VSA term? For some reason I don't recall coming accross it in my reading. Is this POC something you use in trading and if so how?

Sorry for all the questions as I am sure this has been covered here before.

Jason
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #10,207
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:02pm Jan 19, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting pres78
OK I see... yes I have seen that indicator but have never tried using it. Is POC a VSA term? For some reason I don't recall coming accross it in my reading. Is this POC something you use in trading and if so how?

Sorry for all the questions as I am sure this has been covered here before.

Jason
POC is point of control. It's not a VSA term, but a Market Profile one.

The POC is the price that saw the most activity.
  • #10,208
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:08pm Jan 19, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting pres78
OK I see... yes I have seen that indicator but have never tried using it. Is POC a VSA term? For some reason I don't recall coming accross it in my reading. Is this POC something you use in trading and if so how?

Sorry for all the questions as I am sure this has been covered here before.

Jason
i don't believe it is a VSA term. I use it as a way to identify S/R levels. Theory is that when there is a lot of activity at a certain price level, that level is a S/R level. Most times you can spot these levels as price consolidates around the POC line, or it bounces around it like it did today. I beleive the other aspect of the market profile theory is that price will tend to return to the POC line for testing. I have found using VSA at these levels is pretty powerful.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,209
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:09pm Jan 19, 2011 12:09pm
Last weeks high seems to have kept the last downmove at bay again. Not one hourly candle has closed below it (well since we broke above it).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #10,210
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:09pm Jan 19, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting frankkn
Forgot to attach the second
nice trade! I took the long after this down move. Posting chart soon.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,211
  • Edited 12:25pm Jan 19, 2011 12:12pm | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting pres78
OK I see... yes I have seen that indicator but have never tried using it. Is POC a VSA term? For some reason I don't recall coming accross it in my reading. Is this POC something you use in trading and if so how?.......
Although Mal and many VSAers use Auction Market Theory (AMT) to assist in trading VSA, they are separate concepts. I don't think this is the thread to pursue questions about AMT or Market Profile (MP).

However, I have attached a chart for the last few trading days.

The POC is the price where the largest amount of volume was traded at. There is such thing as TPOs and that is based on time not volume. Most of the time it turns out to be the same price.

The value area is where 70% of the volume trades. Actual amount I believe is 68.95%.

The POCs on my chart that have not been hit on preceding days are know as Virgin POCs-they haven't been touch (insert your own sexual innuendo here).

Currently the up auction continues. We are finding value higher and higher each day at the moment.

**EDit**: TPOs= Time Price Opportunites.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current4.png Size: 140 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,212
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:14pm Jan 19, 2011 12:14pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Although Mal and many VSAers use Auction Market Theory (AMT) to assist in trading VSA, they are separate concepts. I don't think this is the thread to pursue questions about AMT or Market Profile (MP).

However, I have attached a chart for the last few trading days.

The POC is the price where the largest amount of volume was traded at. There is such thing as TPOs and that is based on time not volume. Most of the time it turns out to be the same price.

The value area is where 70% of the volume trades. Actual amount I believe is 68.95%.

The...
That makes perfect sense... thanks for the simple explanation.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #10,213
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:14pm Jan 19, 2011 12:14pm
Quoting tgwhbb
i'll be the first to admit i could be really off base here, but let me play devil's advocate anyways in the spirit of learning.

If EU has been in accumulation phase since early december, would SM really want it lower? Accumulation occurs for large moves, right? So that would imply the next leg would be up and not down. Of course, i still have much trouble differentiating between accumulation and (re)distribution, so this is really just me thinking out loud here.
Good points and good discussion, and forgive me to any for my non-VSA venturing here.

I believe in fundamentals being a key driver for pairs - that's not to say that you will see rises in a pair, going against all logic, because, like most things, SM and the world and it's big players need to make money.

In relative terms, sure, there's been bottom buying. But problem is, no one really knows how much is in the float, or in relative terms, how much buying is happening now compared to what they already own. SM tries to stay months ahead of everyone else, has deep pockets that are not leverage induced, and moves of 300-500 pips are of little concern to them. It's a fact that SM is selling into uptrends, providing liquidity to buyers - for them, that will easily last hundreds of pips. Partially because of tick volume, I don't think you can read VSA into a weekly chart.

So, you're left with the technical limitations that a pair is up against, understanding of course there will be good and bad news in the interim. From a fundamental point of view, we've got the decline of the USD/US economy and European bank/national debt as the key motivators, neither of which has any positive closure options on the table. Absolutely none. So, xxxUSD pairs are prone to rise, except for their own quite major economic issues. With EURUSD, Dubai - the poster child for soverign debt issues - is in worse shape than ever, and the amount of debt the vast majority of EU banks are carrying for projects/countries that have absolutely no way out is ever worsening. 1.18 in EURUSD - and beyond - has never been more calling. Whether we get there because of a US bounceback (strong likelihood) or another EU financial crisis (guaranteed, and they will only be worse than the last) - doesn't really matter. Eventually, forex harshly catches up with the reality of fundamentals.

Chartwise, EURUSD loves channels - that is quite apparent in daily and weekly charts - grab one when you have a chance, and start connecting highs and lows. The decline from 1.42 was at least twice as fast as the creep up - this is a general market/fx guideline. Although the 1.3 bottom appears to have been bought (and certainly has been), the decline to 1.3 has barely seen a upwards retrace of 38%, in twice the amount of time, compared to the 1.42 fall of 1,300+ pips - not a positive sign IMO.

I see 1.37-1.387 as a key ceiling area for many reasons, many of them on the chart. Chart mechanics and previous EURUSD history IMO has the key 1.24 area in the cards for many reasons. (Then 1.12, and eventually parity - but that's a ways off)

Am just trying to stress the overall point that even though SM was buying, their actual actions and when they are distributing are very difficult to read on a weekly and monthly, and yet, we know the pair has potential to swing thousands of pips in either direction, so, to me, the chart technicals define the limits and fundamentals get the pair there, just like it's been there previously; from that 50,000 foot level, anything can - and will - happen.

P.S. - Had to throw in the lovely spaghetti mess of EU/EU bank indebtedness - this really only scratches the surface. And, since we know debt forgiveness is not on the table, there is no resolution. Even with Ireland, little has changed, other than scene one of many having been played out, with simply a new debt guarantor. And yet, even the smallest circles (countries) on the chart have only had stage time. There is sooo much more to come.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,214
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:17pm Jan 19, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Point of Control. its the price range/value where there is the most volume for the day. search for the marketprofile indy on this thread if you are using MT4. It will show you the profile of volume distribution and draw a line at the price where the most volume has occured for the day - the POC line.
Carefull.
To my knowledge, MP for MT4 will show you the profile of price distribution and draw a line at the price that has been traded the most during that day (time).
Though these can be close to each other sometimes... probably most of the time, they won't.
  • #10,215
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:18pm Jan 19, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting tgwhbb
1.34796. close enough

since that last post it seems EU has fallen thru the POC and this 15M bar looks like testing of it failed so we should keep going down. Which is great as I'm looking for a long entry around 1.3440-60 area
maybe a bit premature as i did not wait for the NS or test, but hte stopping volume on M5 was confirmed and entered long. Honestly was not expecting this move till later after the asia open. it may come back to bite me as i did not wait for the test, we will see. SL a bit wider to allow for breathing room @1.3430 (below London low)

EDIT: the NS is there, i just didn't wait for the high to be broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M5 2011-01-19 at 3.11.29 PM.png Size: 136 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #10,216
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:26pm Jan 19, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting Beljevina
Good points and good discussion, and forgive me to any for my non-VSA venturing here.

I believe in fundamentals being a key driver for pairs - that's not to say that you will see rises in a pair, going against all logic, because, like most things, SM and the world and it's big players need to make money.

In relative terms, sure, there's been bottom buying. But problem is, no one really knows how much is in the float, or in relative terms, how much buying is happening now compared to what they already own. SM tries to stay months ahead of everyone...
Good post, but please, I hear enough about how fecked we are over here, no more Ireland chat from this point on. Unless you're commenting on how picturesque it is over here.
  • #10,217
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:26pm Jan 19, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting tgwhbb
nice trade! I took the long after this down move. Posting chart soon.
Thanks man.

I saw that stopping volume and was glad to be out. Play this one carefully it's 3:26pm
  • #10,218
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:32pm Jan 19, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting Beljevina
Good points and good discussion, and forgive me to any for my non-VSA venturing here.

I believe in fundamentals being a key driver for pairs - that's not to say that you will see rises in a pair, going against all logic, because, like most things, SM and the world and it's big players need to make money.
Excellent points! Great discussion and glad to see how you identified the 1.37 area.
Change is the only constant
  • #10,219
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:37pm Jan 19, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting Beljevina
Good points and good discussion, and forgive me to any for my non-VSA venturing here.

I believe in fundamentals being a key driver for pairs... Eventually, forex harshly catches up with the reality of fundamentals.
OOOH fundamentals. Get the gone !!!!!!!!!!!! LOL

very interesting.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,220
  • Jan 19, 2011 12:52pm Jan 19, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Good post, but please, I hear enough about how fecked we are over here, no more Ireland chat from this point on. Unless you're commenting on how picturesque it is over here.
And lovely and picturesque it is indeed! I go out of my way to buy Ireland coffee table books, and would love to come and visit, but alas, I have many kiddies that would dampen the experience.

I in fact reign from Croatia, and have a huge affinity for the Irish people: few have talked about and so fiercely tried to defend the traditional meaning of sovereignty not only through this 'crisis' but through history. And, you were among the first to diplomatically recognize Croatia in 1992 (Iceland was 1st). I plan to buy a pub round for when I do eventually make that visit!
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