Is it just a pipe dream? | Forex Factory

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Is it just a pipe dream?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 17, 2011 6:47am Jan 17, 2011 6:47am
Hi, I have spent the last few months learning about trading. i have been concentrating on price action the past few weeks, and I think I would like to master this before I even go near indicators properly. But during all this I read different articles and come across different discussions on various forums and quite frankly the outlook is depressing!
What I mean by that is, while im well aware of this "rule" that about 90% of people are losing traders, I have often thought if you really were committed enough you could become part of that 10%, just like in many other careers.

My question, is that way of thinking a bit of a pipe dream? Is becoming a retail trader a realistic dream? (if you were to give it a few years and work hard). Are there many out there that have given it years and have just decided to call it a day because its simply not working for you?
  • #2
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:03am Jan 17, 2011 8:03am
Winners never quit, quitters never win. Simple as that. You just have to invest time and effort to find something that works for you. Most people are too impatient to do that and quit.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:38am Jan 17, 2011 8:38am
If you are capable of following rule based systems then you will have some degree of success. If however you are an emotional person and trade that way, you will get killed.
Trading is very similar to Gambling.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:28pm Jan 17, 2011 5:28pm
Quoting adecleir
What I mean by that is, while im well aware of this "rule" that about 90% of people are losing traders, I have often thought if you really were committed enough you could become part of that 10%, just like in many other careers.

My question, is that way of thinking a bit of a pipe dream? Is becoming a retail trader a realistic dream? (if you were to give it a few years and work hard).
My humble opinion (and my humbling experience) is that you need to set yourself a minimum 3-5 year timeframe of consistent hard work if you want to become a reasonably good retail trader... Visions of anything else are likely to drive you into dysfunctional behaviour which will very quickly put you into that 90% bracket you mention. And get to know what is fantasy and what is reality. The trading fantasy is everywhere, but the reality is what you can learn for yourself, what you can develop for yourself, how hard you are prepared to work and how well you can bounce back from the inevitable set-backs which will wear you down along the way...
  • #5
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:36pm Jan 17, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting adecleir
Are there many out there that have given it years and have just decided to call it a day because its simply not working for you?
It's more like it's addictive and easy to lose money at and then feel it was worth doing. The need for money management is much less obvious in trading than in, from what I've read, poker; and, I'd imagine there's more uncertainty, with odds difficult to set.
There are some who do advanced price action, which reaches beyond indicators. However, I see your point about the order of study.
  • #6
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:39pm Jan 17, 2011 6:39pm
Rhetoric...

Quoting Dhb
Winners never quit, quitters never win. Simple as that. You just have to invest time and effort to find something that works for you. Most people are too impatient to do that and quit.
You may improve your chances of success with hard work, but ultimately the market decides every traders fate... so luck must take you across the finish line.

Also, if you can accept that you will have losing years, and that money in your account is worthless to you, you might be able to bank some serious coin every few years and make it worth your time.

:-)
  • #7
  • Jan 17, 2011 7:12pm Jan 17, 2011 7:12pm
Well I can tell you I've been at it for 2 years at about 6 hours per day and havent made a penny from trading (only lost money in truth).

But I do enjoy trading and the challenge it brings and I believe this is what has sustained me throught the dissapointments. I believe an ingredient to success also is enjoying what your doing, we'll see.

If you do decide to persue a trading career the best advice I could give you from my personal experience is this; trading is a Very Serious Business that requires a significant investment of time and energy.

Good Luck
Annoying Precision
  • #8
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:30am Jan 18, 2011 7:30am
Quoting adecleir
Hi, I have spent the last few months learning about trading. i have been concentrating on price action the past few weeks, and I think I would like to master this before I even go near indicators properly. But during all this I read different articles and come across different discussions on various forums and quite frankly the outlook is depressing!
What I mean by that is, while im well aware of this "rule" that about 90% of people are losing traders, I have often thought if you really were committed enough you could become part of that 10%,...
Just working hard has nothing to do with your success in this business. You can work as hard as you want, and still come up short in the long-term.
Same as the attitude, "oh, I want this so much, I am willing to do anything" - that also won't work.
You gotta have a bit of luck of finding a profitable niche and need to work hard on exploiting it. But 90% of the work you do until you might come to that point is totally pointless.
  • #9
  • Edited 9:34am Jan 18, 2011 9:16am | Edited 9:34am
You're just going to have to have a go a and find out like the rest of us...

I guess its what you define as "it" but I guess we all want to live off trading (and subsequently make lots of money)

For me its still a pipe dream, I'm putting the price charts on hold- this year and focusing on educating myself with intense study

If you come in chasing the easy money you're in for a long and mind numbing ride as I have been humbled enough to be able to admit.

Ive had eureka moments followed by periods of nothingness.. I've had times of complete understanding and profitability followed by a change in the market and more nothingness. I've had nothingness followed by repeated cycles of optimism and euphoria as I now have learnt to ignore as I realise its most probably a mirrage.

Its tough no doubt... Is it just a pipe dream? I cannot say for sure but if the answer is yes then Ive wasted the last and best few years of my life.

One thing is for sure though is that theres many more people struggling around this place than first meets the eye, and even more that if they're not struggling now will definetly be soon.

Its the biggest market in the world and thus the most competitve and therefore most difficult in theory.

But as the guy above said and I truely believe

"Quitters Never win and Winners never quit"

I would also add that

"you only get back what you put in"
Time hides Nothing
  • #10
  • Jan 18, 2011 10:16am Jan 18, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Dhb
Winners never quit, quitters never win. Simple as that. You just have to invest time and effort to find something that works for you. Most people are too impatient to do that and quit.
i agree with you,and most of all people don`t fail because lack of understanding,fail because lack of discipline,forex and investment are not some pyramidal get rich schemas like people think,they are mostly for the long run and mostly is an full time job for those who really make money.
  • #11
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:30pm Jan 18, 2011 9:30pm
I dont think it is a pipe dream at all.
Your mind has capacity for understanding
and already has built in pattern recognition
and decision making faculties. Apply your
self and prosper.


Jonathan
  • #12
  • Jan 19, 2011 7:50am Jan 19, 2011 7:50am
Quoting joncolby
I dont think it is a pipe dream at all.
Your mind has capacity for understanding
and already has built in pattern recognition
and decision making faculties. Apply your
self and prosper.


Jonathan
That is actually the problem - pattern recognition.

It has always been useful in our evolution, that we could recognize patterns. But in the markets this works against us.
The market can be interpreted in so many ways, and mostly in wrong ways. Also you will only see when a pattern worked and not when it didn't.

I read somewhere, that for example the famous flat top triangle / flat bottom triangle has actually a higher failure rate than winning rate. But look into the charts with your pattern recognition and all you will see are the triangles that worked out.
Also the brains tend to bias what we "want" to see. Let's take the research field for example. Guess why they all use very rigorous scientific methods, cause they wanna cancel out that effect of the researcher bias. Thus, I believe the biggest obstacle is actually the brain. We gotta rely on scientific methods, which aim to objectively analyse things.

In the end, if you just rely on your brain and your pattern recognition, you will probably end up in the 95% of losers. Guess what most amateur investors rely on and how many of them actually win.

Only way, do it like the pros, and rely on scientific methods of analyzing the markets.
  • #13
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:31am Jan 19, 2011 8:31am
Quoting Custos
Just working hard has nothing to do with your success in this business. You can work as hard as you want, and still come up short in the long-term.
Same as the attitude, "oh, I want this so much, I am willing to do anything" - that also won't work.
You gotta have a bit of luck of finding a profitable niche and need to work hard on exploiting it. But 90% of the work you do until you might come to that point is totally pointless.
Is pointless the right word though? surely that 90% of work someone has done to get to the point of becoming profitable has merit, if it even just means that they spent hours upon hours watching charts and developing knowledge and understanding markets? By your logic someone could come along after a few weeks of learning the basics and discover some system by pure luck that will give them a retirement plan no?

Quoting Custos
That is actually the problem - pattern recognition.

It has always been useful in our evolution, that we could recognize patterns. But in the markets this works against us. ...
...
Let's take the...
Interesting post and very eye opening, when you refer to using scientific methods and not pattern recognition do you mean scrapping the likes of support/resistance/ candlestick formations etc, and completely relying on scientific mathematical formulas?
Thanks
  • #14
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:42am Jan 19, 2011 8:42am
Quoting adecleir
Is pointless the right word though? surely that 90% of work someone has done to get to the point of becoming profitable has merit, if it even just means that they spent hours upon hours watching charts and developing knowledge and understanding markets? By your logic someone could come along after a few weeks of learning the basics and discover some system by pure luck that will give them a retirement plan no?


Interesting post and very eye opening, when you refer to using scientific methods and not pattern recognition do you mean scrapping the...

No, you can't just reverse my argument. What I am trying to say is, that for most people trying to win this game, no amount of work will make them profitable. And only the 5% winners will research exactly a field, that is a niche.
Same goes for most research. Many research papers won't have spectacular results, only very few will actually come up with a breakthrough and get a nobel price for that.
Hard work is involved with both, but the rest is just pure luck in my opinion, that you actually researched or worked on exactly that subject which will give you profits in the end.
I don't know why everybody thinks that just by participating in this forum and screentime, they will become profitable. Not going to happen (for most). Not everybody can become a millionaire.

To your second point. No, not at all, price action can well be analyzed without you having to rely on your own pattern recognition. You just have to learn how to program and let the computer analyze the patterns for you.
Most will say that this is too time-consuming. But I rather have an unbiased computer analyzing patterns, than my biased brain.

Of course, support/resistance will be very hard to program. Maybe there are better ways for that. Any suggestion is welcomed.
  • #15
  • Jan 19, 2011 8:54am Jan 19, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Custos
No, you can't just reverse my argument. What I am trying to say is, that for most people trying to win this game, no amount of work will make them profitable. And only the 5% winners will research exactly a field, that is a niche.
Same goes for most research. Many research papers won't have spectacular results, only very few will actually come up with a breakthrough and get a nobel price for that.
nice analogy, I see what you mean now, a bit like some music artists, they may work hard their whole life mastering an instrument, they may even be very creative musically, but its the only ones that make it big are the ones that have all this AND the luck of there being a demand for the style they are playing at the time.

Quoting Custos
I don't know why everybody thinks that just by participating in this forum and screentime, they will become profitable. Not going to happen (for most). Not everybody can become a millionaire.
Well I guess my opinion, albeit naive, is that there does seem to be people making nice profits on forums like this and other, and there does seem to be systems that work. Im not talking people becoming millionaires, more like people earning a reasonably comfortable living.
Quoting Custos
To your second point. No, not at all, price action can well be analyzed without you having to rely on your own pattern recognition. You just have to learn how to program and let the computer analyze the patterns for you.
Most will say that this is too time-consuming. But I rather have an unbiased computer analyzing patterns, than my biased brain.

Of course, support/resistance will be very hard to program. Maybe there are better ways for that. Any suggestion is welcomed.
I see you what you mean now with this point, thanks. Maybe programming is something i should look into , I did computers in university but at the time I was much younger and frankly didn't care about the course. I wish I could have that time back now. But at least programming isnt something completely alien to me.
  • #16
  • Last Post: Jan 19, 2011 9:17am Jan 19, 2011 9:17am
Quoting adecleir
nice analogy, I see what you mean now, a bit like some music artists, they may work hard their whole life mastering an instrument, they may even be very creative musically, but its the only ones that make it big are the ones that have all this AND the luck of there being a demand for the style they are playing at the time.


Well I guess my opinion, albeit naive, is that there does seem to be people making nice profits on forums like this and other, and there does seem to be systems that work. Im not talking people becoming millionaires,...
obviously, there are some systems that are working. I actually use this forum for new ideas to test out.
Just from what I tested, most systems are garbage and only a few can handle years of changing market conditions over various instruments.
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