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  • #9,861
  • Jan 15, 2011 12:02pm Jan 15, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting juhanimi
Are these volumes same as esignal or rtd, have you check that?
Prorealtime is what Dr. Gep uses. For Cellphones, it's actually free.

If someone could post an esignal chart, we could compare. That would be very interesting!
  • #9,862
  • Jan 15, 2011 12:33pm Jan 15, 2011 12:33pm
Almost as if on cue, the market completes an idea that I mentioned only a day before.

I posted that the trigger number/level can be either the close, the high or the low and that Gavin has not publicly specified how to determine which one to use. I further stated that it is better to let the market tell us the answer to that question.

Well, take a look at the chart below from yesterday.

It all starts with a wild Shake Out on Yao Ming volume. This volume was the highest volume in some time (this is a hindsight chart so ignore the volume to the right at this point). The range of the candle was ultra wide compared to all the candles for at least the last couple of hours. Simply, this candle has to grab your attention.

Recognizing this interval as important is easy. The question is still, would the trigger level be at the close, the high or the low? Luckily we don't have to know because the market does.

Before we go too much further, we should address the issue of the very next candle. This is a narrow range down candle that on volume not only less than average but also less than the previous two intervals. It is No Supply. Why is this not an entry? It could be. If you get long here you most likely end up taking a loss. No big deal. As the Phantom of the pits says, "Trading is a loser's game; he who losses best wins". Your ability as a trader to admit you are wrong and get out and then jump right back in the market will determine your ultimate success more than any method or analysis technique will.

From my perspective, it is not a valid entry because of the time of day. This No Supply appears @ 0030 hrs EST. I like to start the day at 0200 hrs EST or maybe as early as 0100 in some cases. As a matter of fact, the time that this Shake Out occurs is strange to me and I would want to proceed with caution because of it.

But let's assume we took the trade. The place to put your stop is a tick or two below the low of the Shake Out candle. Remember the market does not care about our account size or our risk/reward ratios. On the chart, that stop is represented by the green line labeled S1. Whether you stay in until the stop is hit or get out sooner is a personal choice. Either way, you need to take a deep breath, trust that the market will provide and move on.

So back to the trigger level concept. You probably are saying, "HiddenGap, is the Smart Money gunning for stops here?". The short answer is yes. The Reverse Up Thrust is a professional maneuver to not only wrong foot the herd, that is, get them short. But also to stop out those that can read a chart. If you look closely at the chart, you will note that there is a round number just below the low of the Shake Out. This is prime stop territory for most traders and the BBs certainly know this. If you did enter directly after the Shake Out, you should have recognized this and given your stop even more room. Again, from the standpoint of the market, the correct thing to do is independent of your particular individual risk parameters.

The interval after the Reverse Up Thrust is a Test. The volume is not less than the previous two but it is still low. From the trigger level standpoint, note that the last two intervals do not close lower than the low of the trigger level. Price is ramped down below but the close in each case is above that key level. How do we know it's key? The last two intervals just told us it was. Actually, I would include the interval thee intervals back. This is a No Supply just prior to the Reverse Up Thrust.

My original intention here was to just show an example of the market using the low of the candle/bar as the trigger level. I ended up showing a loosing trade and why we should/shouldn't place our stops at certain levels. That's because there is a connection here.

Something we should always be mindful of: The best traders are NOT the traders that did not take the first trade and therefore not take a loss. No. The best traders are the ones that took the first trade, exited with a loss, realized they were right on direction and wrong on timing and then had the discipline to jump right back in.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,863
  • Jan 15, 2011 12:58pm Jan 15, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Almost as if on cue, the market completes an idea that I mentioned only a day before.

I posted that the trigger number/level can be either the close, the high or the low and that Gavin has not publicly specified how to determine which one to use. I further stated that it is better to let the market tell us the answer to that question.

Well, take a look at the chart below from yesterday.

It all starts with a wild Shake Out on Yao Ming volume. This volume was the highest volume in some time (this is a hindsight chart so ignore the volume to...
I haven't traded with trigger levels like these but, I'm learning. Many thanks.

If you don't mind me saying tho, your last paragraph is probably the most important
  • #9,864
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:06pm Jan 15, 2011 1:06pm
news

EURO DEBT ISSUES

EURO PHASED OUT

malc says ... oh really ....

my theory usd phased out and euro goes into super bull cycle long term

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #9,865
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:44pm Jan 15, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
...my theory usd phased out and euro goes into super bull cycle long termAttachment
Can you say the end of America as a hegemonic power and Stagflation line never before seen?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,866
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:44pm Jan 15, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Almost as if on cue, the market completes an idea that I mentioned only a day before.

I posted that the trigger number/level can be either the close, the high or the low and that Gavin has not publicly specified how to determine which one to use. I further stated that it is better to let the market tell us the answer to that question.

Well, take a look at the chart below from yesterday.

It all starts with a wild Shake Out on Yao Ming volume. This volume was the highest volume in some time (this is a hindsight chart so ignore the volume to...
Another great post... very educational and eye opening. Please keep them up.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #9,867
  • Jan 15, 2011 3:36pm Jan 15, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Almost as if on cue, the market completes an idea that I mentioned only a day before.

I posted that the trigger number/level can be either the close, the high or the low and that Gavin has not publicly specified how to determine which one to use. I further stated that it is better to let the market tell us the answer to that question.

Well, take a look at the chart below from yesterday.

It all starts with a wild Shake Out on Yao Ming volume. This volume was the highest volume in some time (this is a hindsight chart so ignore the volume to...
Without any kind of doubt your last paragraph is gold. I have always thought the same, timing is fundamental and the reason many traders fail, fail, ... and leave.
  • #9,868
  • Jan 15, 2011 3:56pm Jan 15, 2011 3:56pm
Here is why I was buying above 1.3020 and waiting for the strength to prove itself for move to 1.3500 to 1.4. I have one position 1.3020 , added 1.3090 ( stop and risk was only 50pip) , will add 1.3250 to 1.3280.


On the 1st chart below we have had this sideways channel for 1 month now.


This is a daily futures chart and volume is offset by one day.



Look at the bars I noted and working left to right
1) Down bar UH volume next bar engulfing, this HAS to be buyers. We move into 1.3430 area and then volume diminishes , pros bring down price on lower vol
2) Down bar on highish volume right before the xmas break when market goes sideway.
3) Down bar on ultra high volume . squat bar with low range , this has to be strength coming into the market as it was right in the area where we saw the strength at 1.
4) UP bar on VERY high volume closing in the highs , this has to be buyers as we have seen no weakness yet , however as we know the market does not like wide range bars on high volume BUT look what happened on this candle , they pierced and closed above the 1.3290 resistance area
Moving into next week I would like to see a test of that 1.3280 area , even a spike under it into 1.3250 in the form of a shake out. This will prove the strength in the background and will ONLY lead to higher prices , if 1.3280 is the weeks low then we will see 1.3680 as around the weeks close. With a spike to 1.3750. IF 1.3250 does not hold then this trade


Now to the 2nd chart , a 2hr chart


Left to right at vertical bars

1) Nfp news day , VERY high volume , next bar down , all other majors were ripping. 1.2950 was prior low. My plan was to see strength in the background then see break back above the 1.3020 bar, as we know weekly range eu is 350 to 400 pip then we can work out target , mine was 1.33 but this was blown out of the water.
2) VERY high volume down bar next bar up…. This can only be buying in an uptrend on the 2 hr.
3) This was the highest volume on a down bar since nfp, next bar up , this confirms the strength , when price breaks this on the next up bar this confirms the strength
4) Supply is hitting the market BUT do not forget back ground is buyers , however there has been selling at the past in this area. So now we have to be wary that this could be weakness. This ultra high volume could also be profit taking at resistance that has been there for 4 years.
5) Supply hitting the market again however for me there is still no reason to sell , as after seeing this supply in the market I want to see a down move , then an up move with no demand. In fact next week I am looking for weak move into 1.3280 to 1.3250 , to prove the strength in the background. I will ONLY start looking for sells if this is broken.



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  • #9,869
  • Jan 15, 2011 4:16pm Jan 15, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
news
EURO DEBT ISSUES
EURO PHASED OUT
malc says ... oh really ....
my theory usd phased out and euro goes into super bull cycle long term
....
hahah. eur bull is still possibly alive.
interesting observation Mal.

amazing 500+ pip, 360degree turnaround in 2weeks. price is back at 1.3300 area.
i would want to see price conquer 1.40 to keep this bull going.
perhaps 1.51 - 1.53 by late Feb - mid-March
  • #9,870
  • Edited Jan 16, 2011 6:26am Jan 15, 2011 5:58pm | Edited Jan 16, 2011 6:26am
Quoting HiddenGap
Almost as if on cue, the market completes an idea that I mentioned only a day before.

I posted that the trigger number/level can be either the close, the high or the low and that Gavin has not publicly specified how to determine which one to use. I further stated that it is better to let the market tell us the answer to that question.

Well, take a look at the chart below from yesterday.

It all starts with a wild Shake Out on Yao Ming volume. This volume was the highest volume in some time (this is a hindsight chart so ignore the volume to...
HG,

This is my first attempt at a VSA related post so I decided to take this post, study it and look at the 15min chart in relation to how it led into the long trade you showed. Going back even further than the trigger bar / number that you showed price actually respected a trigger # that was set the day before during the move up.

Am I off base on this analysis of this trigger bar and how PA respected it? The way I see it some weakness / supply entered on this bar in the form of selling or profit taking... The build up to the 5min bar you identified actually showed a build up to strength with price not closing below the close of that bar.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #9,871
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:14pm Jan 15, 2011 7:14pm
I find all of your posts very helpful and started looking for these kind of setups such as this
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  • #9,872
  • Jan 15, 2011 9:21pm Jan 15, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting mttrader
I find all of your posts very helpful and started looking for these kind of setups such as this
hi mtt, just want to know why you note the NS as a NS on your chart?

is it because it looks like a doji? to me the bar is blue, so it s a ND..and i would enter later, not here ( missing some pips )

what am i missing?
  • #9,873
  • Edited 3:49am Jan 16, 2011 3:28am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting HiddenGap
Almost as if on cue, the market completes an idea that I mentioned only a day before.

I posted that the trigger number/level can be either the close, the high or the low and that Gavin has not publicly specified how to determine which one to use. I further stated that it is better to let the market tell us the answer to that question.

Well, take a look at the chart below from yesterday.

It all starts with a wild Shake Out on Yao Ming volume. This volume was the highest volume in some time (this is a hindsight chart so ignore the volume to...

Thank you HG for your insightful read on this..pleasure to read..

My take on this is a bit different..

As my experience is more on eyeballing support & resistance etc. I tend to look at those as a means where price will test, accompany by volume & appropriate price action. Wyckoff accumulation pattern is what i tend to look out for. (I recall one chap here on FF posting those Wyckoff schematics somewhere with excellent reads on those charts)

In this chart, the prelim support is what i look for test. I am more inclined to take trades with pin-bar like test & the 3rd test on the chart is where i usually go with..not strictly but preferred. Those earlier test (first 2 test on my chart) are signs of support coming in. Of cause i m speaking strictly in reference to 5mins chart.

I'll be honored if you could comment on this.

TKs

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  • #9,874
  • Jan 16, 2011 4:58am Jan 16, 2011 4:58am
Thank you Mal.
  • #9,875
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:37am Jan 16, 2011 8:37am
I thought i would post this as info for those that might be interested in the tradeguider vsa club . I am not affiliated with this in any but for $50 a month look at all the live educational webinars you get

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  • #9,876
  • Jan 16, 2011 11:22am Jan 16, 2011 11:22am
Quoting kave
....As my experience is more on eyeballing support & resistance etc. I tend to look at those as a means where price will test, accompany by volume & appropriate price action. Wyckoff accumulation pattern is what i tend to look out for. (I recall one chap here on FF posting those Wyckoff schematics somewhere with excellent reads on those charts)

In this chart, the prelim support is what i look for test. I am more inclined to take trades with pin-bar like test & the 3rd test on the chart is where i usually go with..not strictly but preferred....
Brilliant. Looking left to trade right. As you know, VSA is a sub-set of Wyckoff analysis and your chart is truly Wyckoffian. Very impressive. I certainly can not argue with your analysis.

From a VSA point of view, you would want to "acknowledge" the shake out. There is Ultra High Volume there and that means something. Of course if you do note the Shake out, you come to the same conclusion-The market is testing and wants to go higher.

I hope you will post more because I think we all can learn something from you. Great work. That's what makes this thread so awesome. We all have slightly different ways of viewing the market which affords us an excellent opportunity to learn.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,877
  • Jan 16, 2011 11:30am Jan 16, 2011 11:30am
Quoting malcolmb14
I thought i would post this as info for those that might be interested in the tradeguider vsa club . I am not affiliated with this in any but for $50 a month look at all the live educational webinars you get...
There is only something like 116 spots left as of the webinar yesterday. I tried to ask Gavin if there were more spaces available for those that did not actually want the software, but he did not answer me.

The $50 price would be the Bronze level membership-no software. If you want TG the price goes up considerably for the first year.

Still, all in all the VSA club is definitely worth considering. Thanks Mal.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,878
  • Jan 16, 2011 11:36am Jan 16, 2011 11:36am
Quoting pres78
HG,

This is my first attempt at a VSA related post so I decided to take this post, study it and look at the 15min chart in relation to how it led into the long trade you showed. Going back even further than the trigger bar / number that you showed price actually respected a trigger # that was set the day before during the move up.

Am I off base on this analysis of this trigger bar and how PA respected it? The way I see it some weakness / supply entered on this bar in the form of selling or profit taking... The build up to the 5min bar you identified...
Your first post? Where have you been hidding all this time LOL. You are right on point. Well done.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,879
  • Jan 16, 2011 11:44am Jan 16, 2011 11:44am
To me this is a NS bar (marked with the red vertical line -C) because it is a down bar with very little volume after seeing strength(buying) in the background (D). The bar before (B) is lower down bar but C has less volume and it also touched the low of the bar (A) on the left with the biggest volume on the chart.

I may not be right about this one. Still learning
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  • #9,880
  • Jan 16, 2011 11:53am Jan 16, 2011 11:53am
Quoting HiddenGap
Your first post? Where have you been hidding all this time LOL. You are right on point. Well done.
Been busy reading MTM over and over and reading all the posts and watching the vids and taking the tests (quietly on my own) and getting my hands on all the VSA PDF's I can... Just joined Traders Lab to see what info is there... I mainly trade patterns like 123's etc... and have been fairly successful and I originaly planned on using the volume portion only to compliment my pattern trades (i.e. to analyse volume on retraces etc... as patterns legs build).

Now however I have found myself engrossed in VSA's entirety and am seeing my charts in a whole new way. I have a ways to go and am really working on recognizing the VSA bars and their names along with their respective set-ups / confirmations that follow etc... so that I can make VSA my main trading method. Looking at charts and the trigger numbers and bars for me has actually made VSA make more sense...

Thanks to you and all the others like Mal, Dr and Intel etc... who take the time to help others understand VSA when you all could just be quietly making your money and keeping all that knowledge to yourselves.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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