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vsa with Malcolm

  • #9,721
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:32am Jan 13, 2011 9:32am
Quoting foxybunny
Is this talking about EUR/USD ?

What the implications here with such digital option ?
Basically, people have bet a lot of money that price will be above 1.3350 by a certain time and date.

You can bet your life that they will be doing all they can to mark price upto and beyond that level so they win the bet.
  • #9,722
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:33am Jan 13, 2011 9:33am
Quoting juhanimi
Last EORM (EU-H1) had exactly same spread than this one, only this has longer first bar, but we will see soon.
Please post a chart. EORMs are very rare.
  • #9,723
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:34am Jan 13, 2011 9:34am
Quoting foxybunny
Is this talking about EUR/USD ?

What the implications here with such digital option ?
The expiry was at 1.3350 for 15:00 GMT, or about 30 minutes ago.

EU surpassed 1.335 but only in the last 10-15 min or so ... so I assume the player did not make the money or BE, given there was a cost for the options? Is it possible to find out the final scoop on this?

I supposed they could have sold 'em too, and recovered some funds, but with minutes on the table, it sounds like too much Las Vegasing for big money to partake in.
Attached Image
  • #9,724
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:39am Jan 13, 2011 9:39am
That last EORM had first bar 54 pips spread and second 44, now we have first 66 and 44, and volumes are look a like. Second volume lower than first one in both. Both second candles closes in the middle.
  • #9,725
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:43am Jan 13, 2011 9:43am
Quoting juhanimi
That last EORM had first bar 54 pips spread and second 44, now we have first 66 and 44, and volumes are look a like. Second volume lower than first one in both. Both second candles closes in the middle.
Then the 'last' EORM was not an EORM.

As a rough guide, if the first bar = 54 pips
then the second bar should = about 10 - 13 pips at the MOST

44 pips would NOT be considered narrow spread.
  • #9,726
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:45am Jan 13, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Intel
Then the 'last' EORM was not an EORM.

As a rough guide, if the first bar = 54 pips
then the second bar should = about 10 - 13 pips at the MOST

44 pips would NOT be considered narrow spread.
Well, it must have been EORM, because price came down 1300 pips after that.
  • #9,727
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:48am Jan 13, 2011 9:48am
Quoting juhanimi
Well, it must have been EORM, because price came down 1300 pips after that.
No that is not the point.

eg if we had a very wide spread up bar on low volume closing in the middle, then priced dropped.....would you call that a ND? OF COURSE YOU WOULDN'T.

It was not an EORM. That doesn't mean that price will not fall after it appeared.
  • #9,728
  • Edited 11:01am Jan 13, 2011 9:54am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting juhanimi
In one TG-videos, there is one guy (don`t remember his name), who takes only these trades, and he has almost 100% track record.
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1294922357
Hi Can i know the broker u r using for that chart? my ibfx for the same M5 is not reflecting the same volume, hence i am not able to spot the 2 arrowed NS bars...
  • #9,729
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:58am Jan 13, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Mtm
Hi Can i know the broker u r using for that chart? my ibfx for the same M5 is not reflecting the same volume, hence i am not able to spot the 2 arrowed NS bars...
Mig live.
  • #9,730
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:09am Jan 13, 2011 10:09am
Quoting Intel
No that is not the point.

eg if we had a very wide spread up bar on low volume closing in the middle, then priced dropped.....would you call that a ND? OF COURSE YOU WOULDN'T.

It was not an EORM. That doesn't mean that price will not fall after it appeared.
It is not so black and white, but sure low volume always is a sign, that SM is not intrested higher prices.
When I started with VSA, and saw No Supply bars close in the low of the bar, I was thinking that maybe VSA does not work in forex, because Tom was only speaking about stocks in his book.
If price is not going any higher and drops 1300 pips, for me that is EORM, end of the rising market. Even if second bar is 44 pips wide and volume is lower than in first bar.

And Gavin said in one video, that he has seen UT after EORM.
  • #9,731
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:22am Jan 13, 2011 10:22am
Quoting juhanimi
.

And Gavin said in one video, that he has seen UT after EORM.
Absolutely. IT signifies the END OF A RISING MARKET not the start of a declining market. Thos often the price does fall. In the videos, Tom says he would short these evry time but, Gavin says he would not.

None of this alters the fact that the second bar is a narrow spread bar in an EORM.
  • #9,732
  • Edited 1:30pm Jan 13, 2011 10:26am | Edited 1:30pm
Hi, guys... Just wanted to post this short taken below the no demand on the 15 min AUD after seen weakness in the background.

Edit: Got stopped out and entered long for a few pips when I realized that there was no selling pressure at the moment. Always my problem trying to go against the bigger trend and until I overcome this, I will not be profitable in this business.
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  • #9,733
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:26am Jan 13, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Intel
Absolutely. IT signifies the END OF A RISING MARKET not the start of a declining market. Thos often the price does fall. In the videos, Tom says he would short these evry time but, Gavin says he would not.

None of this alters the fact that the second bar is a narrow spread bar in an EORM.
Good point, as well we need to take note of the strong uptrend. I know doubt feel a retrace is due but longer term tredning is pointing up.
  • #9,734
  • Edited 11:13pm Jan 13, 2011 11:02am | Edited 11:13pm
Quoting juhanimi
Mig live.
Thanks juhanimi for your reply, i hv downloaded the 90 day trial mt4 from http://www.migbank.com and my volume from Mig is also similar to ibfx. But the 2nd NS bar which u had indicated previously is not showing lower vol than its previous 2 bars on my chart below..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1294937325

i am wondering am i using the correct Mig broker, pls advise?

---> ic thanks for the clarification in the next post .
  • #9,735
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:06am Jan 13, 2011 11:06am
Yes Mtm, but I have live and you have demo, always little different, different server with live and demo. But what I remember Mig demo is almost like realtimedata. And IBFX demo too is good.
But you know the setup and little differencenses with demo and live so ... you know, improvise.
  • #9,736
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:07am Jan 13, 2011 11:07am
Quoting juhanimi
In one TG-videos, there is one guy (don`t remember his name), who takes only these trades, and he has almost 100% track record.
Juhanimi,
can you please give us a links of this videos because i couldn't find them.
Thanks
  • #9,737
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:10am Jan 13, 2011 11:10am
No I don`t have link, but it is in this thread somewhere.
It was Wyckoff seminar from TG, many speakers.
  • #9,738
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:58am Jan 13, 2011 11:58am
Hello! Today i was short on usd/chf. I got out at the close of the 16.00 bar because it was a no supply bar even if it close a lot lower. MINUTES after the next bar appeared at 16.30 the 'volume' on the 16.00 bar changed from no supply to only less than just the previous bar but more than 2 bars ago. Has anyone else experience that? How can you trade if this happens all the time?
  • #9,739
  • Jan 13, 2011 12:34pm Jan 13, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting Alexone
Hello! Today i was short on usd/chf. I got out at the close of the 16.00 bar because it was a no supply bar even if it close a lot lower. MINUTES after the next bar appeared at 16.30 the 'volume' on the 16.00 bar changed from no supply to only less than just the previous bar but more than 2 bars ago. Has anyone else experience that? How can you trade if this happens all the time?
Hi Alex,

juhanimi posted on this just yesterday. The suggested solution works in my case. See: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9624

Gruß

Wolfgang
  • #9,740
  • Jan 13, 2011 1:01pm Jan 13, 2011 1:01pm
Does anyone know about GoMarkets volumes?
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