Technical Analysis Fallacy

I am squaring up on the euro trade here at 1.3280 as this has been one of those difficult areas for the euro of late. I will square up the cable trade at 1.5820 if it falls back from current levels. Hope you all got some of that move. Looking for opty to re-enter now.

Hi Mamood, i once had this thought too, why not map trading into a form of game? For example stock car racing, the pace of the market can be mapped to the tracks, U turn, slight-steep curve and the controls of the driver mapped to the execution of trades. It is very interesting.

OMG, they want back their "hong Bao" i took earlier.
ok preparing counteroffensive soon.
searching for the top.
so is not congestion day

need find costing realignment slowly.
See the cost ego makes.:

And the dancer trips.
Lets see if can get back to dance.
top may be higher a little.
We'll see.l

If not on the battl;efield feeling along.
There will be million variances.

regards

Congratulations!
That was an extraordinary trading day, indeed.
very easy to read PA and Mr. Trichet ...

Have fun while spending your profits somewhere :-)

It would save the task of mapping sun tze bing fa to trading then http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif
I could not imagine then, when a 8 year old kid competing for a piece of meat with us.

Hi Fti,

thanx for your honest report.

I'm sure you know what to do and how to recalibrate your market reading and decision making.

Maybe 1.34 is in the cards before topping out.
Trichet was very convincing in the way he spoke ..

All the best to you, Chief!

Thanks, but back in now at 3295 protecting the entry. This is a nice shot above 3280 but need to see if it can gain some additional momentum. If it can get above 3320, it may take a shot at 3380. However, no predicting only dance, right?

hardly wants to top
no energies. Fight tomorrow

goodnite

Well - Trichet has finnished 3 minutes ago.
So let's see, if this upmove may continue, retrace or reverse ...
Only alertness and nimbleness can tell ...

Seems a lot of people have to cover their shorts ...
Will be interesting to see/hear what Heli has to say later this trading day ...

OK, squared that euro trade at 1.3345 and done for today. If it's going to 3380 and beyond it will do it without me -- LOL. Good trading everyone.

Hi Friends,

from time to time while reading a lot of mind/brain/neurology related books I'm pondering, why is there such a great difference in trading on Demo and on Real Money?

Well - of course, you will bring up the emotions, that are in play, like greed, fear, egoism and some more. Yeah I agree with that. But I think there is another important difference.

We tend to overanalyze the markets, charts and our recent trading situation. We always try to get a kind of confirmation or reassurance, that our guessing is right. That might be very useful in our non-trading part of life, but not in trading. If we do so, we are paralyzed, or - at least - much to slow in our decision making process.

On the other hand, when we are trading on demo, we are much more relying on our first impressions and on gut-feelings. We make our decision inside a blink of time and also with a blink of information. That is the reason, why we have a strong feeling, that something is going wrong, long before we can express it in words ...

To make it short: To trade successfully with this "dancing the market MO" we need a feeling for the market. And it is this kind of gut-feeling, we already have, but not relying on, when real money comes in play.

But we should trust it.
Therefore I want to recommend a book again (Have done so last year I think). Read it and try to follow the ideas,observations and profes. It can provide the required confidence ....

http://www.amazon.de/Blink-Power-Thi...4000422&sr=1-1

And after you read the above book, please take a look at that one.
Someone has geiven that advice to me here in TAF and I have to say it was very enlightening. Do not want to shift you into Buddhism, but the books describes very well, how to "program" or let's say "reconfigure" our brain by using our mind. (Not to forget that Buddhas have more than 2000 years of experience in doing so ...)

http://www.amazon.de/Buddhas-Brain-P...4934317&sr=1-1

Ok, that's it for now.

Niels

Just for info:
A little Background on todays ECB Press conference ...

LONDON, Jan 13 (IFR) - While current interest rates are considered as appropriate by the ECB the tone of the post-meeting statement and the press conference are very hawkish. The markets are listening to the ECB with bunds lower and EUR/USD higher but more importantly has been the upward shift in rate expectations with forward EONIA rates up sharply (12x24 EONIA in particular is up over 10bps). The question is whether the ECB can pull the trigger and hike the refi rate?
The ECB has turned hawkish at a time when the markets had been expecting an unchanged script. With Dec HICP printing 2.2% the ECB has chosen to focus on the risks to price stability expecting a further "temporary" increase in inflation during 2011. The ECB mentions twice that "very close monitoring" of price developments is warranted. It has not gone unnoticed that the summary of the opening statement the ECB has changed the first line from "the current key ECB interest rates remain appropriate" to "the current key ECB interest rates still remain appropriate". The inclusion of the word "still" suggests that this assessment is subject to change sooner rather than later and thus a rate hike this year should not be ruled out.
Any doubts that the ECB's would be unwilling to hike in the midst of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have been crushed by Trichet's reminder that the ECB hiked rates in July 2008. The 2.2% print on HICP has led the ECB to take on board a more hawkish posture and while the doves will be willing to support this shift this may not extend to supporting a rate hike. We still believe that this year the focus will be on normalization during H1 2011 with continued hawkishness during H2 2011. A rate hike is more likely in Q1 2012 than this year, as a consensus is going to be increasingly difficult to achieve due to the divergence in growth between the core and peripheral countries.
It seems very likely now that the ECB will shift the 3-month LTRO from the current fixed rate and full allocation to variable rate tenders at the March 3 ECB meeting. Last week we had suggested that 12x24 EONIA will go from the then level of around 1.30% to beyond 1.50% and revised this before the ECB meeting to a move beyond 1.60%. There is now scope for further upside here as markets continue to entertain the potential for the ECB to pull the trigger and hike rates especially as inflation is expected to move higher over the coming months. [email protected] /JR

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Good one Niels... i agree ....time for me to read Blink again and then the Budha..

thanks Man

V

Thank you for these Niels. They look quite interesting.

Perhaps a missing ingredient... let's see

Ooouch - that might be strong tobacco for the USD ...

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Two leading credit rating agencies Thursday warned the U.S. on its credit rating, expressing concern over a deteriorating fiscal situation that needs correcting.
Moody's Investors Service Inc. said in a report Thursday that the U.S. will need to reverse an upward trajectory in its debt ratios to support its Aaa rating.
"We have become increasingly clear about the fact that if there are not offsetting measures to reverse the deterioration in negative fundamentals in the U.S., the likelihood of a negative outlook over the next two years will increase," Sarah Carlson, senior analyst at Moody's, told Dow Jones Newswires.
[..]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Just for info:

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lol, looks like fti made the same mistake I did. The thing felt like a top around 1.316. Had to take pain around 1.3170. Quick rescue 1.315, but momentum scared me off as I had high gearing after a failed 1st rescue. I saw trend was up so I waited 1.3170 retest to enter w/ trend. Momentum good on that break and I decided to enter around 1.3177.

I was contemplating leveraged flip, but gaps are a real possibility. Resorted to normal 1,3,2 middle humped run to recover the few small losses quickly and took out the 3 to retain capital and left the 1,2 in there.

There was a massive internet outage at the main backbone here in my country today. by the time i could log back in the action had all passed.. sigh oh well, shit happens when you least want it.

Happy trading y'all