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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,721
  • Jan 11, 2011 9:10pm Jan 11, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting Alki
Out of trade. Wait and see and between i'll analyze reason of these 44 pips lost and come back again.
Hey ALKI: great post. Good to read that you are gonna analyze yer trade. That is where you begin to make $$$. Bestest thing that I learned was notice where the Dly ema's & PA was going. These were yer best indicators. But I could be wrong.
  • #3,722
  • Jan 11, 2011 9:45pm Jan 11, 2011 9:45pm
USDCAD will go either way. But in the immediate term, I see it could go lower - how low I have no idea - thus I will average my position as it goes down.

My long positions are mid/long term. So I am playing with bigger stoploss andlarger target.

CAD is supported mainly by canada's exports: Oil, Gold. Oil is lifted by bad weather and with the impending reactivation of the Alaskan pipeline, Oil could go down; watch for the Oil Inventories report later to see how good/bad it is affecting the supply.

Gold is currently consolidating.

If Oil and Gold swings to the downside, we'd see CAD depreciating. Canada dont like a strong CAD (and so is Japan with their Yen, China with their Yuan.. etc), but that does not stop their money from appreciating vs USD...
  • #3,723
  • Jan 11, 2011 10:12pm Jan 11, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting BurgerKing
USDCAD will go either way. But in the immediate term, I see it could go lower - how low I have no idea - thus I will average my position as it goes down.

My long positions are mid/long term. So I am playing with bigger stoploss andlarger target.

CAD is supported mainly by canada's exports: Oil, Gold. Oil is lifted by bad weather and with the impending reactivation of the Alaskan pipeline, Oil could go down; watch for the Oil Inventories report later to see how good/bad it is affecting the supply.

Gold is currently consolidating.

If Oil and Gold...
I am building a mid/long term position long as well. It is too cheap to ignore! Let's hope for some green pips soon!
  • #3,724
  • Jan 12, 2011 12:35am Jan 12, 2011 12:35am
Quoting forexstrah
I am building a mid/long term position long as well. It is too cheap to ignore! Let's hope for some green pips soon!
i had long term short vs AUD, JPY, CHF, CAD. however due to excessive swap on AUDUSD, i had to cut loss on that pair (should have hold on longer... coulda shoulda woulda = not a good mentality). my USDJPY, USDCHF went on to make profit. and now, USDCAD.
  • #3,725
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:34pm Jan 12, 2011 7:34pm
FinMin JIM issued typical Canadian response wrt strong Loonie (IMHO dovish but wise). C$ will get stronger & they'll deal with it. Former assumptions are out the window.

Maybe they know that oil is going to go up ( more than we think )

Unable to entertain all these variables, so shall remain a tekkie.

4H:9902 prev supp ( now resistance) 9935 is 50 ema heading down.

Good places to watch for sells (if yer a bear) or buys (if you like most posters here)
  • #3,726
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:45am Jan 13, 2011 8:45am
bearish hourly (as of this writing), bullish daily...
  • #3,727
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:33am Jan 13, 2011 11:33am
Quoting BurgerKing
bearish hourly (as of this writing), bullish daily...
hi burger king why u say it is bullish daily? will like to know thanks.
  • #3,728
  • Jan 13, 2011 6:54pm Jan 13, 2011 6:54pm
Dtf: STO o/s teks say retrace (9923 prev R/S) so, I shall watch for break up
for short buy.

However; juxtaposing fundies: US$ longs being closed. NZ,CAD & OZ being bought.
  • #3,729
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:05pm Jan 13, 2011 7:05pm
Quoting Scarecru
Dtf: STO o/s teks say retrace (9923 prev R/S) so, I shall watch for break up
for short buy.

However; juxtaposing fundies: US$ longs being closed. NZ,CAD & OZ being bought.
nice observation. i will say UC is on a current uptrend (higher high higher low)
  • #3,730
  • Jan 14, 2011 10:22am Jan 14, 2011 10:22am
Anyone buying here?
Cheers
CanuckCT
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  • #3,731
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:13am Jan 15, 2011 1:13am
is that a 4-hour U-Cad you are posting there? looking at the daily .. hard to tell if it's time to buy .. they are cheap is the only thing.
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  • #3,732
  • Jan 15, 2011 4:48pm Jan 15, 2011 4:48pm
IMO it may go down. daily chart showing a bearish hammer. but still cheap to buy. lets see a bounce
  • #3,733
  • Jan 15, 2011 5:24pm Jan 15, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting mignun
IMO it may go down. daily chart showing a bearish hammer. but still cheap to buy. lets see a bounce
yes e hammer is scary.. but hmm it is cheap but how cheap is cheap?
  • #3,734
  • Jan 15, 2011 5:30pm Jan 15, 2011 5:30pm
Dtf: RSI down TL break to up (still<50)
STO o/s
+ve MacD Histo divergence.

Last candle suggests bull/bear uncertainty. So two possibles

1) Thinking retrace to 9940 (prev supp) & if break- mayhap to parity.

2) Eyeballing sell if Thurs low (9853 break).

Long term 9600 target.

Keep yer stick on the ice.
  • #3,735
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:33pm Jan 15, 2011 7:33pm
Quoting Scarecru
Dtf: RSI down TL break to up (still<50)
STO o/s
+ve MacD Histo divergence.

Last candle suggests bull/bear uncertainty. So two possibles

1) Thinking retrace to 9940 (prev supp) & if break- mayhap to parity.

2) Eyeballing sell if Thurs low (9853 break).

Long term 9600 target.

Keep yer stick on the ice.

hi scarecru, ur divergence refer to bullish div?
  • #3,736
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:03am Jan 16, 2011 8:03am
Friday Candle is really bad news for Long USDCAD indeed. It reeks of "uncertainty" and suggestive of a possible down slide at least.

wait for europe session to show direction of this pair
  • #3,737
  • Jan 16, 2011 6:38pm Jan 16, 2011 6:38pm
Evening: Yuan;

bullish; but on Histogram ( not macd line which is heading down).

histo divergence is an early warning that MAYBE $ will change direction.
  • #3,738
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:45pm Jan 18, 2011 7:45pm
Finally; some direction for pips. At least for a retrace .

Was BoC statement dovish; hence, today's bulls?
The Oz went up ( in spite of the floods). CAD went down.

I be watching for retrace to 1.0000.

Dec 20 to Jan 18 fib ( hi-lo) 9980 ( 38% level) & Dec 3, 15, 29 prev supports.

STO is up & MacD has X'd up on signal ( Dtf).

9868 break lower for me suggests U/CAD short.

Beaver been dropping; so mayhap U/CAD long probable.
  • #3,739
  • Edited Jan 20, 2011 2:44am Jan 19, 2011 8:05am | Edited Jan 20, 2011 2:44am
this is the trade I took..

SL 0,9885
TP 0,9965


target hit :-)
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  • #3,740
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:24am Jan 20, 2011 9:24am
Quoting kingich
this is the trade I took..

SL 0,9885
TP 0,9965


target hit :-)

maybe u shd have set it highr at 1 or even the upper resistance 1.003
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