GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

GU monthly Guppy profile supporting further downward momentum.

Cable at an important level:



Megaphone reversal formation (red lines) sitting on support at 1.5350. Expecting a bullish move soon, possibly off the lower grey area or blue lower channel. Lots of space underneath if this area breaks. Targets if the megaphone breaks top line: megaphone width then upper channel confines.

"This is to say "welcome to 2011" to the regular contibutors on this thread, and also saying thank you all for your regular sharing here. T o be honest, my trading has improved while trading alongside you guys. I look forward to applying all that I have learnt this year and to grow in the "green direction" as well.

Looking at the charts,
If cables touches 1.5350 again, I will be going long with 1.6 in mind and possibly beyond. I am bullish on this pair and will buy dips as i see setups in the lower tf.

Hi All,

Yes, welcome to another year 50d. Personally, I'm looking forward to the first quarter, as I think this will determine the direction for the Euro. I note that Estonia joined yesterday, and so there must be some life left in the old dog that is the Euro. Euro V2 did not materialize yesterday, and so my mystic claim can be discounted.

Took a look at some of the other threads today, and note that the fireworks have already started, and which gives one something to amuse oneself with during the stagnant hours.

Hope all received what they wished for from Santa. The wife and I purchased a PS3... we found the on button, so all is well.

Okay, I'll be the first to post a chart this year - yes, I know it is the first week, and so trading should be undertaken with due caution.

Took a short this morning on EU. Admittedly, just scalped for fifty - well, about 47 - and have since seen price go to where my gut said hold out for, but nerves told me no way. Ah well.

Interesting place for price to kiss, that standard green 61.8 fib. I'm guessing that price will pop around the 1.3034/1.3122 for the next day-ish in preparation for the first NFP of the year.

I see that Christine Largarde is coming out with her usual guff - day one of the new working year and already she is showing her lack of credibility.

Well, Guppy profiles would suggest that the trend is down. Also notice the gradual kissing of the fib points from various swings, and that pa has finally had a few short-term bars closing below the ascending magenta TL.

I have a pending short at 1.3080.

Not sure what anyone else is doing, but I'm taking profit here as price has reached the 38.2 FE, we are nearing the end of the European session, and NFP is tomorrow. I may be wrong - often am - but would not be surprised to see consolidation for the next 24 hours or so.

Hi everyone,

Back from great holidays into the trading game. Lots of interesting research completed and a few new trading models have been developed on my part to spread more money across more markets. Volatility in the soft and hard commods is providing exceptional returns to those willing to foot the risks.

To currency matters:

Aggressive strategies which patiently bought intraday swing lows on the dollar during December were paid modestly for those efforts, 1 or 2 DX points is all you can really expect during this time of year when liquidity is low. I was using wide stops and small lots to trade from my phone while visiting the family in Sydney.

My conservative strategy is still waiting for a breakout above 80 that it can actually buy.

I include a fresh USDX chart for your examination and discussion. I have included the old parameter lines from the last post, plus a new one at 79 to highlight our EOY range.

Patience is the key, but I think between now and the start of June we should see some real market fireworks.

Also included is a 1 year chart of the USDCNY. Keep it in mind, because it's going to be important to currency speculators this year.

Good luck and green pips to all!

For the record, the remainder of the EU short hit my final TP that was set at the lower of the ascending magenta TLs. Happy with this, and in time for me to sit back and watch NFP with nothing open. PA looks like it has bottomed, currently, for me.

Sinner, as always, prescient submission. Hope you enjoyed Sydney, and the festive season.

I would venture that with the absence of other members, some are making profit enough that permits them to take rather substantial holidays. Pff, if only I was rich.

EDIT: Just included a 15min chart to show possible bottom.

Hope this doesn't bore anyone.

I guess GU is yet to make a definite move this month. I am still waiting for a clear break of 1.53 or 1.5650 to determine a definite direction south or north.
NFP is gone; yet no decisive move. Thursday rate determination might show us the way if it doesnt happen before then.
G/L guys.

...where is everyone?

Great post, please keep it up! Love the long term analysis especially.

My prior major resistance for the DX (80) has been moved up after examining the Ichimoku weekly, 81.5 is a definite major zone of interest. This number represents 50% of the bullish DX swing caused by Europe worries late 2009 till mid 2010.

A bearish rejection of this level over the coming weeks would be, imho, very very DX bearish.

The model spits out three major possible scenarios which I've annotated:

1. (red) We start trading around/above 81.5 and chop in the current zone before a decline lower.
2. (brown) We start trading above 81.5 with strength, look for 84-84.5, 86 max on an overshoot. This is followed by a longer dollar decline.
3. (green) Break 81.5 with conviction, move straight up to test the 84 zone before a slower move down to test support, then a strong swing higher.

The annotations aren't supposed to be time accurate, just rough sketches of how the waves could pan out.

Thought I would throw some possible directions for expansion based on the almost flat position of the Guppy profile on a weekly.

Thought |I would submit an update to the past previous, and highlight how price does seem to have been rejected of the standard green 61.8 fib. I would be cautious of any longer-term longs when observing the Guppy profiles.

The last 4hr candle on the last chart may well be the poke into the red MAs that I see very often, before a continuation of the longer-term trend, which is south.

From earlier post:http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3710

Quote:Originally Posted by 45Condor
...The last 4hr candle on the last chart may well be the poke into the red MAs that I see very often, before a continuation of the longer-term trend, which is south.



Of course, had I kept my trap shut, I would have been proved correct. However, the fact is that blubber mouth here decided to opine, and was rebuffed by the market.

Interesting that PA has reached the WP.

Still, the current position of EU, as per the two charts submitted, may be telling for a potential range to ensue prior to tomorrow's news. Essentially, price has reached the yellow standard 50 fib from the last main swing.

finally the breakout comes along and its northwards. Going forward, I will be looking for the dips. 1.56 - 1.565 will be a good buy if price dips towards that region... waiting to see if the single prints from yesterdays rise will be filled betwen now and friday... if not let the ride up north continue. I am also mindful of 50% of the last swing (629 - 5345) is at 5820.
Trade well.

gu --- weekly updated

short eurusd 1.3620
stop 1.3800
tp 1.2150

this will take weeks if not months but eventually it will get there

i am also short cable from last week at 1.6040 looking for 1.5000, then 1.4700

Hi Everyone,

Hope all is well with trading. I have been off work since the beginning of Dec due to my wedding in early Jan. Just got back from the Maldives so will be back to work next week. Look forward to adding some posts to the thread.

See you all soon

Stocky

So that's where you've been, and what you have been up to.

Congratulations.