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  • #361
  • Feb 15, 2006 1:31pm Feb 15, 2006 1:31pm
Interesting moves last night and this morning.
So I have a choice....do I complain about all the pips that were taken back from me on the retrace today? Or do I rave about the 20% increase in my account when I got stopped out in profit?


So far....VWB = very nice. After 3 mos playin it, I will give further reviews. Hope I can still rave. I just started using it.

So next question is, what now? The GBP had a major retrace, way more than 50%. Guess we wait for some new lows and get in again, or wait for a few more candles and obvious reversal patterns again? Not sure whether just getting back in cuz its back low is a good idea or not.

Stop_Loss
Stop_Loss -Its not a name, its a goal
  • #362
  • Feb 15, 2006 1:42pm Feb 15, 2006 1:42pm
Quoting zenophyte
ouch
Tightened my stop before going to bed for the night and lost out on a 76 pip gain(trailing stop I set) by getting stoped 2 pips below my stoop before it reversed.
One thing I've learned in my short time at this is, your not going to get every pip and that ANY positive pip gain is better than a loss. Even if its just one pip, it's one more pip than I had before the trade. Just my opinion
Shootist - Have Pip Shooters Will Travel
  • #363
  • Feb 15, 2006 2:09pm Feb 15, 2006 2:09pm
Quoting Stop_Loss
Interesting moves last night and this morning.
So I have a choice....do I complain about all the pips that were taken back from me on the retrace today? Or do I rave about the 20% increase in my account when I got stopped out in profit?
Sir,

A 20% increase in your account on ONE trade???

Methinks you are far too oversized in your positions.

I got a 1% increase and I'm worried that I may have too large a position on.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #364
  • Feb 15, 2006 2:21pm Feb 15, 2006 2:21pm
Everyone,

Some thoughts and comments on todays GBP trade.

As I told everybody on C2, "I never said probability was easy or pretty". The main reason I moved my stop up was that the daily chart really isn't showing a clear reversal picture. We're only at the 3rd fib line, and the candlestick wasn't that great. Yes, it was good enough to make the trade, but as we saw it wasn't that powerful.

I want to share with you my philosophy on trading multiple contracts [bigger numbers] because it ties in to todays market action. When I first started trading large numbers of futures contracts [50 - 500], I witnessed another large trader get his ass handed to him in a little less than an hour, on a Swiss Franc trade that saw Swissy go 250 lower [he was long]. After the close I asked what happened. He said, "I bought the first break, I bought the second break, I WAS the third break".

As long as you keep things close to the vest, you will never get caught like him. You never want to be fuel on the fire. Like everybody else, we were long [20 GBP contracts] and watched it fly higher. I sold 5 contracts on the first initial new high at 1.7480. As the market started coming back I knew if 1.7410 was taken out, we could get a replay of last Friday.

I don't care about 10 or 20 pips. I don't trade to make 10 pips. I sold the last 15 at 1.7390 because I care about losses, not gains. I never worry about gains because they take care of themselves. I concern myself almost 100% of the time with potential losses. If I miss a trade, or the market then reverses back and basically screws me, I don't care. It's the price you pay for playing in the big leagues.

As I have stated before, when you figure out what trading is really about [the marble game], you move to the next level.
vegas
  • #365
  • Feb 15, 2006 2:41pm Feb 15, 2006 2:41pm
Quoting vegas
Everyone,

Some thoughts and comments on todays GBP trade.

As I told everybody on C2, "I never said probability was easy or pretty". The main reason I moved my stop up was that the daily chart really isn't showing a clear reversal picture. We're only at the 3rd fib line, and the candlestick wasn't that great. Yes, it was good enough to make the trade, but as we saw it wasn't that powerful.

I want to share with you my philosophy on trading multiple contracts [bigger numbers] because it ties in to todays market action. When I first started trading large numbers of futures contracts [50 - 500], I witnessed another large trader get his ass handed to him in a little less than an hour, on a Swiss Franc trade that saw Swissy go 250 lower [he was long]. After the close I asked what happened. He said, "I bought the first break, I bought the second break, I WAS the third break".

As long as you keep things close to the vest, you will never get caught like him. You never want to be fuel on the fire. Like everybody else, we were long [20 GBP contracts] and watched it fly higher. I sold 5 contracts on the first initial new high at 1.7480. As the market started coming back I knew if 1.7410 was taken out, we could get a replay of last Friday.

I don't care about 10 or 20 pips. I don't trade to make 10 pips. I sold the last 15 at 1.7390 because I care about losses, not gains. I never worry about gains because they take care of themselves. I concern myself almost 100% of the time with potential losses. If I miss a trade, or the market then reverses back and basically screws me, I don't care. It's the price you pay for playing in the big leagues.

As I have stated before, when you figure out what trading is really about [the marble game], you move to the next level.

Vegas,

Again, thanks for your thoughts and experiences you have shared with all of us. Just a couple of questions or maybe just one question. Do you ever pay attention to the fundamentals of what is going on in the market or is it all just about the tech analysis?

I got in on the positive gbp news at 3:30 a.m mountain time and then got out and went short with bernanke's speech/question answer period. The Vegas method really helped pinpoint/coinside with the good news for the pound, but common cents said that it would reverse if Bernanke sounded hawkish so go short once the market commited to it.

I am no expert and truly value everyone's input and thoughts on this.

Thanks,

Jace
  • #366
  • Feb 15, 2006 2:51pm Feb 15, 2006 2:51pm
Quoting johannbok
Vegas,

Again, thanks for your thoughts and experiences you have shared with all of us. Just a couple of questions or maybe just one question. Do you ever pay attention to the fundamentals of what is going on in the market or is it all just about the tech analysis?

I got in on the positive gbp news at 3:30 a.m mountain time and then got out and went short with bernanke's speech/question answer period. The Vegas method really helped pinpoint/coinside with the good news for the pound, but common cents said that it would reverse if Bernanke sounded hawkish so go short once the market commited to it.

I am no expert and truly value everyone's input and thoughts on this.

Thanks,

Jace
Jace,
I definitely pay attention to what's coming out and the perception the market wants to see, but I NEVER trade off of news. The same news tomorrow can lead to the exact opposite market reaction. It will drive you nuts.

Price action is all that counts. Whether you want to call VWB "tech analysis" or not really isn't the issue. Concentrate on price.
vegas
  • #367
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:09pm Feb 15, 2006 3:09pm
Quoting vegas
Jace,
I definitely pay attention to what's coming out and the perception the market wants to see, but I NEVER trade off of news. The same news tomorrow can lead to the exact opposite market reaction. It will drive you nuts.

Price action is all that counts. Whether you want to call VWB "tech analysis" or not really isn't the issue. Concentrate on price.
So, after the news event happens, if it is big, it will usually make the market move one way or the other in a big way, is this the price action that you are talking about. Ie; with the VWB saying to buy the pound, waiting for the news and watching the outcome of the news drive it up. Doesn't this kind of make the best of both worlds. Especially lately with how news events really seem to shake up the markets? And is that the price action you are talking about? By waiting to see how the price moves after the events?

Again thanks for your time and help with this stuff. I hope I am asking relevant questions that other people would like answered and not stupid questions.

Jace
  • #368
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:24pm Feb 15, 2006 3:24pm
Quoting johannbok
So, after the news event happens, if it is big, it will usually make the market move one way or the other in a big way, is this the price action that you are talking about. Ie; with the VWB saying to buy the pound, waiting for the news and watching the outcome of the news drive it up. Doesn't this kind of make the best of both worlds. Especially lately with how news events really seem to shake up the markets? And is that the price action you are talking about? By waiting to see how the price moves after the events?

Again thanks for your time and help with this stuff. I hope I am asking relevant questions that other people would like answered and not stupid questions.

Jace
Jace,
There are no stupid questions.

No, that is not what I mean. By trading on news, more often than not, you get in a position you normally wouldn't want to be in, but because of the news you're in it. What happened on the last NFP, where the headline number was dollar bearish? How many traders got caught selling the dollar?

Most of the time, the market has a pretty good idea what to expect from news, so traders anticipate this and position themselves accordingly.

By concentrating on price action with your method you eliminate this noise.
vegas
  • #369
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:35pm Feb 15, 2006 3:35pm
Humm, GBP was interesting for sure. Since i'm not quite up to speed on all the do's and don'ts of the VWB (i've read it several times and i'm implementing what i have understood) i'm still incorporating the 4hr model in my demo trades. Yesterday's BUY trade initiated after the 50% retracement from the lower fibo grabbed some nice pips on the first two lots; BUY at 1.7371 & limit manualy set at 1.7471 which was just south of the 4hr-55ma to get out before possible congestion?? Then after the move north (alarms set on MT4 near 4hr 55ma at time of original entry) i moved the remaining stop up into profit and got stopped out with another dozen pips profit.

As mentioned above i'm not versed enough to just use the VWB model alone so i'm incorporating in demo what has been working in the past (V4hr model). . . but even trading off the 4hr looking to the Daily is much more of a life than i was used to while watching 10 minute candles form!
  • #370
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:37pm Feb 15, 2006 3:37pm
Quoting diallist
Sir,

A 20% increase in your account on ONE trade???

Methinks you are far too oversized in your positions.

I got a 1% increase and I'm worried that I may have too large a position on.
Ok, Ok...I will be VERY forthcoming. (my signature hints at this).
I have been up an down with momentum trading for a year now.
I made a ton and then lost it plus some...then some more, etc.
You all know the story and why trading for 10-20 pips doesn't work.
So at this point the amount I'm starting with is very small due to the lack of trading capital.
So a 20% increase in a small account, is easy to do when 1 lot is a large percent of your account. And you really can't trade more than one position. So basically that explains it.
Here is an example for those that didnt get it.
An account with $250.00 with one lot using about $43 of it (400:1 leverage) on GBP. $50 or 50 pips equates to a 20% return.
I wouldnt be trading that large of a percent of my account if it wasn't the bare minimum to start with

Now I'm embarrassed. But I hope to be back to report large long-term gains from this very small start amount. I think with VWB, it's possible. Hasn't been with any other method yet.
Stop_Loss -Its not a name, its a goal
  • #371
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:44pm Feb 15, 2006 3:44pm
Quoting vegas
Jace,
There are no stupid questions.

No, that is not what I mean. By trading on news, more often than not, you get in a position you normally wouldn't want to be in, but because of the news you're in it. What happened on the last NFP, where the headline number was dollar bearish? How many traders got caught selling the dollar?

Most of the time, the market has a pretty good idea what to expect from news, so traders anticipate this and position themselves accordingly.

By concentrating on price action with your method you eliminate this noise.

Vegas, I can't thank you enough for your time and effort you have put forth in this forum and the great answers you give. I think after I have been hit in the head a dozen times I finally am starting to " get it "

Again Thanks so much for helping us all.

Jace
  • #372
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:56pm Feb 15, 2006 3:56pm
Quoting Stop_Loss
...I have been up an down with momentum trading for a year now.
I made a ton and then lost it plus some...then some more, etc.
You all know the story and why trading for 10-20 pips doesn't work....
Now I'm embarrassed. But I hope to be back to report large long-term gains from this very small start amount. I think with VWB, it's possible. Hasn't been with any other method yet.
I don't think you should feel embarrassed at all ! You are certainly in good company :-) One of my two accounts was drawn down by 50% while "momentum" trading off 1m & 5m charts following the teachings of the first company i was trained by to grab 5 to 8 pips per trade with a recomended 25pip parachute-stop-loss, but bailing out of a trade at no more than -9/-10 pips...but doing the math, we can all see that ain't gonna work! Though they said it was the way to riches!!! Glad i've learned a few things since then.
  • #373
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:59pm Feb 15, 2006 3:59pm
Quoting Stop_Loss
Ok, Ok...I will be VERY forthcoming. (my signature hints at this).
I have been up an down with momentum trading for a year now.
I made a ton and then lost it plus some...then some more, etc.
You all know the story and why trading for 10-20 pips doesn't work.
So at this point the amount I'm starting with is very small due to the lack of trading capital.
So a 20% increase in a small account, is easy to do when 1 lot is a large percent of your account. And you really can't trade more than one position. So basically that explains it.
Here is an example for those that didnt get it.
An account with $250.00 with one lot using about $43 of it (400:1 leverage) on GBP. $50 or 50 pips equates to a 20% return.
I wouldnt be trading that large of a percent of my account if it wasn't the bare minimum to start with

Now I'm embarrassed. But I hope to be back to report large long-term gains from this very small start amount. I think with VWB, it's possible. Hasn't been with any other method yet.
I'm sorry SL, it was definitely not my intention to embarrass you!

I've been where you are, more than once, having so little capital that I was forced to trade only one lot.

May I make a suggestion that may help? You mentioned 50 pips = $50. This tells me you are trading a mini account with 10,000 lot sizes. This forces you to trade at 40:1 leverage (10,000/250). All this will do is cause you to do is lose your $250, unless you get lucky and have a string of winning marbles .

My suggestion is to open an account with a broker that lets you trade micro lots (1000) or smaller. With a micro lot your leverage would only be 4:1 and you would stand a much better chance of survival.

Again my post was not intended to embarrass you, but rather was written out of concern for you. Unfortunately, I forgot to engage the "tact" circuit in my pea-brain before responding.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #374
  • Feb 15, 2006 4:03pm Feb 15, 2006 4:03pm
Quoting Stop_Loss
Ok, Ok...I will be VERY forthcoming. (my signature hints at this).
I have been up an down with momentum trading for a year now.
I made a ton and then lost it plus some...
Hey SL, I can just see you standing there in front of the Market with your nose all bloody and sayin' "Oh Yeah ! "

I think you show great strength to take it on again. But this time, Pick YOUR Fights. The Markets will still be there long after we are all gone. It's not about beating the Market. It's about beating the other players.
Wrestling the Market is like Fighting City Hall.

I'm glad to hear you had a 20% profit trade. I would suggest that, as Dial said, 1% / day is a really nice return on your Money. So don't get too carried away.

Good luck and re-newed success.
  • #375
  • Feb 15, 2006 5:13pm Feb 15, 2006 5:13pm
Quoting diallist
I'm sorry SL, it was definitely not my intention to embarrass you!

My suggestion is to open an account with a broker that lets you trade micro lots (1000) or smaller. With a micro lot your leverage would only be 4:1 and you would stand a much better chance of survival.

Again my post was not intended to embarrass you, but rather was written out of concern for you. Unfortunately, I forgot to engage the "tact" circuit in my pea-brain before responding.

Dial
No worries. I wasn't really embarrassed by you. It was my decision to disclose my trading failures, not yours. But it was therapudic and helps me be committed to my newer strategies.
My broker does allow super-mini accounts and lower leverage. I chose the higher leverage on purpose so that I could choose the risk amount I wanted to take.
Regardless, I have learned that keeping the lots low and working for longer term consistant wins will work better than higher lots and hoping to win a fortune per day. In essence, a $100 gain over 3 days is greater than a $10,000 gain followed by a $15,000 loss. in the same period.
Hope to stick to my guns. Can't say that momentum trading wasn't a rush, but it just didn't pay in the end.
Stop_Loss -Its not a name, its a goal
  • #376
  • Feb 15, 2006 6:36pm Feb 15, 2006 6:36pm
Quoting Stop_Loss
No worries. I wasn't really embarrassed by you. It was my decision to disclose my trading failures, not yours. But it was therapudic and helps me be committed to my newer strategies.
My broker does allow super-mini accounts and lower leverage. I chose the higher leverage on purpose so that I could choose the risk amount I wanted to take.
Regardless, I have learned that keeping the lots low and working for longer term consistant wins will work better than higher lots and hoping to win a fortune per day. In essence, a $100 gain over 3 days is greater than a $10,000 gain followed by a $15,000 loss. in the same period.
Hope to stick to my guns. Can't say that momentum trading wasn't a rush, but it just didn't pay in the end.
Hi SL,

I can see myself in you...I have blown up couple of mini accounts so far and was making kind of same mistakes...Later I realized that the account size does not matter. For keeping the account healthy in long run, 2% risk will do the trick. It could be $200 or $100000 account. MM plays the same role..

just my 2 cents..
Shan
  • #377
  • Feb 16, 2006 10:47am Feb 16, 2006 10:47am
Can somebody please point me towards a version of Vegas Wealth Builder I that is not a word doc ? I have read VWB II in pdf.


Thanks
  • #378
  • Feb 16, 2006 10:58am Feb 16, 2006 10:58am
One solution might be to download this free (and excellent!!) software that will read/save Microsoft Word, Excell files, i've used it for years. The founders/creators actually spun off from Microsoft to give the world a free version ; - )

http://www.software602.com/products/pcs/

Download the 602PC Suite.
  • #379
  • Feb 16, 2006 10:59am Feb 16, 2006 10:59am
Quoting sarbot
Can somebody please point me towards a version of Vegas Wealth Builder I that is not a word doc ? I have read VWB II in pdf.


Thanks
Sarbot,

Try this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=4113

It should be in the .zip file.
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #380
  • Feb 16, 2006 11:54am Feb 16, 2006 11:54am
Thanks Pipex,

Can you point me towards a site where I can pick up the Vegas indicators or experts for mt4 ?


Thanks
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