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Long Term Pips

  • #101
  • Jan 11, 2011 12:41pm Jan 11, 2011 12:41pm
Haha ;-) You are cheating Jungles ... but #99 is the same pleasure ... :-) :-) :-)

BTW ... Indecision (neutral bar) also on EURGBP :-)


Quoting Jungles
i think you got #99
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #102
  • Jan 11, 2011 12:48pm Jan 11, 2011 12:48pm
manipulating markets

Quoting trzcinek
Haha ;-) You are cheating Jungles ... but #99 is the same pleasure ... :-) :-) :-)

BTW ... Indecision (neutral bar) also on EURGBP :-)
  • #103
  • Jan 11, 2011 12:51pm Jan 11, 2011 12:51pm
Hehe ... I'm afraid it is easier to manipulate FF than FX :-P
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #104
  • Jan 11, 2011 1:14pm Jan 11, 2011 1:14pm
AUD/JPY went up for over 40 pips ... you must explain us how did you know that ;-)


Quoting brenzaj42
just entered aud/jpy long, we will see
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #105
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:35pm Jan 11, 2011 2:35pm
Had to pop in to say hat's off to you Brenzaj42 for the thread & insight into your trading method. I followed you over from your comments on mercado's "Trend Trading" thread. Was most impressed with your style & will follow with interest & learn along. I'm a relative newbie yet, but this sure beats trying to figure all the other noise based on short term trading.
  • #106
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:01pm Jan 11, 2011 4:01pm
Parallel and Inverse analysis works for intraday trades as well, the jpy was weak and the aud was trying to strengthen, it broke intraday resistance around 82.00 and the next resistance was 82.30. I will take trades like that in the session to get extra pips once in awhile.





Quoting trzcinek
AUD/JPY went up for over 40 pips ... you must explain us how did you know that ;-)
  • #107
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:20pm Jan 11, 2011 4:20pm
I see major CAD strength in the works, of course, time will tell in the main session. Through P and I, I am looking for USD/CAD to break .9880, CAD/JPY to break 84.50, CAD/CHF to break .9925, and AUD/CAD to break .9700 which could happen shortly after the news but I will wait until the main session to mess with it.

The CAD/CHF and AUD/CAD do not have fully developed weekly crosses yet but due to P and I, I would feel comfortable taking them in the main session if they are going my way after the break.

The EUR/GBP is now using resistance at .8340 as support in a downtrend, the EUR has been strong at times in the last 24 so has the GBP, both are strong so see the consolidation on the 4 hour chart (just to visually see). This could drop in the main session if it breaks the support cluster.

That is what I will be looking for tomorrow but we will see once the main session arrives tomorrow.
  • #108
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:25pm Jan 11, 2011 4:25pm
My attitude is wait and see, I never try to predict, rather analyse and just try to listen to what the market is trying to tell me.





Quoting trzcinek
It is a pleasure to have the post #100 on this great thread ;-)

Just a few words on the current situation on EUR/USD. As for me, our trading day today did not clarified the situation.

The price visibly rejected 1.29000 level and PA is more favourable for a move up (inversed Pinbar) then down :-/ Now, price stalled in the area of 1.30000.

In my opinion tomorrow, we will have another 'no decision' day, since market is visibly awaiting the important news coming on Thursday.

I expect Thursday to be 'decisive day' for this trade.

Do...
  • #109
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:30pm Jan 11, 2011 4:30pm
Hello

the 3 pairs that seem to meet the cross, weekly trend and cross-pair analysis are, as has been mentioned already, EUSD, EGBP and ECAD

this is the easy part

the more difficult part is if to take these trade signals and if so, where to enter

what are the other variables that help to make the trade decision?
can we quantify them?
or are they more qualitative, discretionary?

thanks
  • #110
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:33pm Jan 11, 2011 5:33pm
I have been in the EUR/CAD since the initial cross. As far as the other two, my analysis from Monday night still holds true. P and I make those two a little sketchy. But in the end it boils down to what happens in the main session. That is it. To me, this makes complete sense. If not let me know.

1. Find pair that is trending - weekly chart
2. Look for pullback - daily chart
3. Find entry - main session


Quoting Jungles
Hello

the 3 pairs that seem to meet the cross, weekly trend and cross-pair analysis are, as has been mentioned already, EUSD, EGBP and ECAD

this is the easy part

the more difficult part is if to take these trade signals and if so, where to enter

what are the other variables that help to make the trade decision?
can we quantify them?
or are they more qualitative, discretionary?

thanks
  • #111
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:54pm Jan 11, 2011 6:54pm
that's probably the missing link for me, once the set-up has been found according to the criteria you have set out, wait for confirming price action at London/NY session (off an hourly, 240, daily?)

that just leaves the actual entry price to target, once set-up has been confirmed by the main session, but i will wait to see some of your live entries to get a grip on that

thanks
  • #112
  • Edited 10:37pm Jan 11, 2011 10:27pm | Edited 10:37pm
i'm guessing a 240/day combination is acceptable (Vs. day/wk)

i did a visual backtest for this week, not much took my fancy, but AUDNZD240 did

AUDUSD and AUDCAD also had nice downward momentum

entry could have been friday end, but waiting till monday and a 5ema entry is short at 1.3090, max draw-down since then ~15pips = nice

demo trade still active, be interested to see outcome
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  • #113
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:08am Jan 12, 2011 1:08am
some news might spoil AUDNZD trade http://www.forexlive.com/158606/all/...t-0800-gmt-fix


* btw if you are ever wondering why that great tech trade went haywire, these guys usually know who did you over http://www.forexlive.com/
  • #114
  • Jan 12, 2011 3:23am Jan 12, 2011 3:23am
For me, I will just drop down to any timeframe where I can tell it is trending even if its 5min or 15min.





Quoting Jungles
i'm guessing a 240/day combination is acceptable (Vs. day/wk)

i did a visual backtest for this week, not much took my fancy, but AUDNZD240 did

AUDUSD and AUDCAD also had nice downward momentum

entry could have been friday end, but waiting till monday and a 5ema entry is short at 1.3090, max draw-down since then ~15pips = nice

demo trade still active, be interested to see outcome
  • #115
  • Jan 12, 2011 5:15am Jan 12, 2011 5:15am
entered cad/jpy long 84.44, stop 83.44
  • #116
  • Jan 12, 2011 5:40am Jan 12, 2011 5:40am
Hey Brenza...

Is this trade can/jpy what have you been entered part of your daily strategy or some kind of intraday trade? Thx
  • #117
  • Jan 12, 2011 5:48am Jan 12, 2011 5:48am
This is long term



Quoting BatmanXXL
Hey Brenza...

Is this trade can/jpy what have you been entered part of your daily strategy or some kind of intraday trade? Thx
  • #118
  • Jan 12, 2011 9:56am Jan 12, 2011 9:56am
Good day brenzaj42.

First of all, thank you for sharing all this great info. It is greatly appreciated. You have a very simple method of trading. I've been trying to simplify my method for a while now, which I've done, but still lacked the confidence in my analysis.

Using what you have explained and incorporating it into my strategy will give me that confidence I'm looking for.

I've never done P and I analysis in my 2 years of forex experience and strangely I don't know why. It is such an obvious thing to do. When you look for strength or weakness in a pair, do you only look at the last couple of days (candles) or do you look for longer than that, both daily and weekly time frames? Is there anything else you look for? If you could please elaborate on what to look for in strength or weakness.

Thank you.
  • #119
  • Edited 12:00pm Jan 12, 2011 11:45am | Edited 12:00pm
Hey Brenzaj42,

Thanks for the invite to your trading journal (I am catching up as I just returned this morning from my annual Leaders Conference in Tucson).

When I analyze the upside for the cadjpy long trade, I review the trading channel that is formed by the oscillating uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) on the weekly chart. It looks to me that there is only approximately 100 pips before it hits the upper trend line of the channel. Am I analyzing that incorrectly? Or am I drawing the weekly channel incorrectly?

Jon
  • #120
  • Jan 12, 2011 11:58am Jan 12, 2011 11:58am
could you please post chart, my broker does not have this pair

Quoting brenzaj42
entered cad/jpy long 84.44, stop 83.44
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