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  • #241
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:57pm Jan 7, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting Ctic
It is good to see others with the same thoughts... Not sure why everyone gets hyped up on it... unless if your a scalper I guess.. then your really gambling which direction it will spikes. It is a gamble though

I think at times the big money uses the news and traders reactions to it as a way of getting priced moved along to where their orders are sitting. Then run it the way they had it planed all along.

I am not trying to be a conspiracy theorist. But why will it spike 100 pips at times on the news. Hit a level and drop 200. It is still the same news good or bad. Orders were sitting there and things needed a nudge to get them filled.

Again my opinion...I have a lot of them today...hats what you get when you are working alone crawling around a house cutting and nailing base.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #242
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:48pm Jan 7, 2011 6:48pm
Quoting Ctic
Not sure why everyone gets hyped up on it...
My only guess is that news offers a (false) indicator for trades. It's a whole lot easier for the newbie trader to believe in his trade bias it aligns with what CNBC, CNN, etc...are all screaming. Ha, little do they know!
  • #243
  • Jan 8, 2011 3:30am Jan 8, 2011 3:30am
I believe that everybody get so excited during news because they give 70 pips in about 2 minutes with almost no bounces. A hard push up or down... no much to think about, either u are right or wrong, and u know it immediately.. U don't have to get anxious if u are getting money and u see price going back 20 pips... or u don't have to get frustrated noticing that your trade is slowly going where your S/L is...

i used to trade the news... i realized i can get much more pips and money trading in "normal" periods... far from news
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #244
  • Jan 8, 2011 7:28am Jan 8, 2011 7:28am
Quoting dario1002
I believe that everybody get so excited during news because they give 70 pips in about 2 minutes with almost no bounces. A hard push up or down... no much to think about, either u are right or wrong, and u know it immediately.. U don't have to get anxious if u are getting money and u see price going back 20 pips... or u don't have to get frustrated noticing that your trade is slowly going where your S/L is...

i used to trade the news... i realized i can get much more pips and money trading in "normal" periods... far from news
I get that same feeling when I go to Las Vegas and bet the horse races. You watch the horses and in 2 minutes you either made a lot of money....or lost your ass. LOL

But you are right, I remember long ago I played the news quite often trying to get the spikes

TEST::
I am going to open a practice account and the only time I will trade it is for the news.

I will only go short, no matter what the charts say.

I will close right after the spike and not carry trade for any length of time.

I will keep record how many times it went with me, and against me.

It will be interesting to see if I can make money, if it's a 50% ratio of short spikes to long spikes, and what happens.

C.
  • #245
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:02am Jan 8, 2011 8:02am
Here may be a good carry trade next week. We have a 50% retrace from last month. Hit the bottom wall on this upward channel, and we have a doji. Wait for confirmation and go LONG.

OCO order placed pending market open 1.0025
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  • #246
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:47am Jan 8, 2011 8:47am
Quoting Ctic
I get that same feeling when I go to Las Vegas and bet the horse races. You watch the horses and in 2 minutes you either made a lot of money....or lost your ass. LOL

But you are right, I remember long ago I played the news quite often trying to get the spikes

TEST::
I am going to open a practice account and the only time I will trade it is for the news.

I will only go short, no matter what the charts say.

I will close right after the spike and not carry trade for any length of time.

I will keep record how many times it went with me,...
I haven't worked out all the details yet on the exact specifications of my test but, since I don't want to be married to my computer waiting for the news events, I will have to draw the line in the sand somewhere.

For sure it will only be major news events. Not going to waste my time on a petty one that will only spike 5 pips. SO i.e. red ones on the ff calander.

But since I can't possibly catch all red news events I will at least try to catch the majors..SO..

USD and GBP news events only....

Fed Chairman Ben Dover Bernake speaks
NFP
Unemployment claims
MPC Rate Statement
Official Bank Rate
FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate
Advance GDP
Retail & Consumer confidence (possibly)

I may not even be able to catch all of these but I will revise this to work.

I need a programmer that can write me a robot to execute short trades 2 minutes before news and close after the 5 or 15 minutes...lol

C.
  • #247
  • Jan 8, 2011 10:41am Jan 8, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Ctic
I haven't worked out all the details yet on the exact specifications of my test but, since I don't want to be married to my computer waiting for the news events, I will have to draw the line in the sand somewhere.

For sure it will only be major news events. Not going to waste my time on a petty one that will only spike 5 pips. SO i.e. red ones on the ff calander.

But since I can't possibly catch all red news events I will at least try to catch the majors..SO..

USD and GBP news events only....

Fed Chairman Ben Dover Bernake speaks
NFP
Unemployment...
You got me thinking.....

This is so simple yet may be profitable..

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #248
  • Jan 8, 2011 12:05pm Jan 8, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting Ctic
Here may be a good carry trade next week. We have a 50% retrace from last month. Hit the bottom wall on this upward channel, and we have a doji. Wait for confirmation and go LONG.

OCO order placed pending market open 1.0025
i havnt traded this pairing for about a year, got stung a few times so gave up. Funny thing is i pulled the chart up last week looking for some sort of stability on correlation with majors and noticed some interesting movement.. no correlation but interesting independent movement ..lol.
Cant afford to place OCO but will have ticket open from rollover.
Thanks again, Ctic.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #249
  • Jan 9, 2011 4:27am Jan 9, 2011 4:27am
Quoting Ctic
I haven't worked out all the details yet on the exact specifications of my test but, since I don't want to be married to my computer waiting for the news events, I will have to draw the line in the sand somewhere.

For sure it will only be major news events. Not going to waste my time on a petty one that will only spike 5 pips. SO i.e. red ones on the ff calander.

But since I can't possibly catch all red news events I will at least try to catch the majors..SO..

USD and GBP news events only....

Fed Chairman Ben Dover Bernake speaks
NFP
Unemployment...
If i can give u some advice.... When i used to do that i used to have fixed spread on my broker.. so it is much better if u can find a broker like this. Then... sometimes movement starts 2 minutes before news (rarely before 2 minutes), so maybe u want to place order somewhere before 2to4 mins. On news normlally there are 2 violent pushes... the first right before the news (which last for about 4-5mins), then price go back from where it started (or in a range of 10-15 pips) and then decides where to go, so u might think which of those pushes u want to catch.
Then... i wouldn't reccomend u try this kind of trades during speeches.. as u never know when the speaker will tell something useful for trading and speeches might last for 2-3 hours.

Me thinking... have a good trade man, and let us know how it goes )
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #250
  • Jan 9, 2011 9:51pm Jan 9, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting dario1002
If i can give u some advice.... When i used to do that i used to have fixed spread on my broker.. so it is much better if u can find a broker like this. Then... sometimes movement starts 2 minutes before news (rarely before 2 minutes), so maybe u want to place order somewhere before 2to4 mins. On news normlally there are 2 violent pushes... the first right before the news (which last for about 4-5mins), then price go back from where it started (or in a range of 10-15 pips) and then decides where to go, so u might think which of those pushes u want...
Thanks for your input Dario,

I will consider that as I have noticed the same thing in my days. Not sure exactly how I want to do this yet but I will figure it out. I never really analyzed the news events really close so this will be interesting for me, but I will keep you posted.

Thanks again,

C.
  • #251
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:00pm Jan 10, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting Ctic
Here may be a good carry trade next week. We have a 50% retrace from last month. Hit the bottom wall on this upward channel, and we have a doji. Wait for confirmation and go LONG.

OCO order placed pending market open 1.0025
Broke right through channel wall moving for a lower fib... Thank Goodness for OCO orders. Trade never activated...but I will leave it open for a few days in case we bounce off 23.6 fib.
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  • #252
  • Jan 13, 2011 6:00am Jan 13, 2011 6:00am
Quoting Ctic
I haven't worked out all the details yet on the exact specifications of my test but, since I don't want to be married to my computer waiting for the news events, I will have to draw the line in the sand somewhere.

For sure it will only be major news events. Not going to waste my time on a petty one that will only spike 5 pips. SO i.e. red ones on the ff calander.

But since I can't possibly catch all red news events I will at least try to catch the majors..SO..

USD and GBP news events only....

Fed Chairman Ben Dover Bernake speaks
NFP
Unemployment...
Ok doing a test run..went short 5762. will close in 5 min.
  • #253
  • Jan 13, 2011 6:05am Jan 13, 2011 6:05am
Quoting Ctic
Ok doing a test run..went short 5762. will close in 5 min.
Closed @ 5760....2 big pips...lol
  • #254
  • Jan 23, 2011 8:54pm Jan 23, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting Ctic
Just for the record so when it happens later...

Bears Vs. Patriots in the Superbowl...

Bears win...25th anniversary of the 1985 Bears SuperBowl shuffle.

So much for this theory....Maybe next year.
  • #255
  • Jan 24, 2011 2:15am Jan 24, 2011 2:15am
Quoting Ctic
So much for this theory....Maybe next year.
I live in PA and so sick of the Steeler fans I'm praying for the Packers right now!
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #256
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:39pm Jan 24, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting simpleguy
I live in PA and so sick of the Steeler fans I'm praying for the Packers right now!
Unfortunatly for me.. I am a die hard Bears fans and by default hate the Packers... so until Feb. 7th.... Go Steelers.
  • #257
  • Jan 28, 2011 8:07pm Jan 28, 2011 8:07pm
Lets look at exactly when the gdp news came out.

DOW Jones = 12000
Nasdaq = 2800
S&P = 1300
E/U = 1.3750
G/U = 1.5950

etc...

Now what happens historically when people buy stocks. They have to take their cash... i.e. the dollar... and sell it to purchase equities... Stocks.

What has been happening lately... Stock markets have been rising with absolutely zero resistance.. What does it mean????

Dollar drops.. equity rises..

Before the news where are we at... Dow = MAJOR resistance.... S&P = MAJOR resistance.... Nasdaq = MAJOR resistance... Dollar... support

SO with the bad news, equities appear to not look so good so people sell their equities... i.e. stocks and turn it into cash... i.e. purchase the dollar.

Hence why we saw the DOW drop close to 200, The NASDAQ close to 75 the S&P close to 25... and the dollar rise vs. its counterparts.

It makes perfect sense. The stock markets were not just going to blow right through these resistances. Hence that is why I have been calling for the G/U to not break this 1.600 mark for a couple weeks now.

C.
  • #258
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:11pm Jan 28, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting Ctic
Lets look at exactly when the gdp news came out.

DOW Jones = 12000
Nasdaq = 2800
S&P = 1300
E/U = 1.3750
G/U = 1.5950

etc...

Now what happens historically when people buy stocks. They have to take their cash... i.e. the dollar... and sell it to purchase equities... Stocks.

What has been happening lately... Stock markets have been rising with absolutely zero resistance.. What does it mean????

Dollar drops.. equity rises..

Before the news where are we at... Dow = MAJOR resistance.... S&P = MAJOR resistance.... Nasdaq = MAJOR resistance......

Brilliant observation

Fits things together nicely
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #259
  • Jan 29, 2011 10:13am Jan 29, 2011 10:13am
Quoting Rufus
Brilliant observation

Fits things together nicely
TY Rufus. I try to look for strong correlations between the markets. Friday turned out to be a pretty profitable day for me. I picked up QQQQ put options and DXD call options Thursday before market close, shorted ES and went short EU and GU Friday morning. I still think we shall see a bit more of a drop before it rises again.
  • #260
  • Jan 29, 2011 11:59am Jan 29, 2011 11:59am
Quoting Ctic
TY Rufus. I try to look for strong correlations between the markets. Friday turned out to be a pretty profitable day for me. I picked up QQQQ put options and DXD call options Thursday before market close, shorted ES and went short EU and GU Friday morning. I still think we shall see a bit more of a drop before it rises again.

I have been kind of expecting a big correction in gold and silver as well. Maybe even to 1160.

There has been far to much hype. Then it also seems that everyone and his brother is talking about it. Oil as well, that is if domestic stuff gets under control.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
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