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Trend Following - A Complete Guide

  • #201
  • Jan 9, 2011 11:52pm Jan 9, 2011 11:52pm
Micardo. Fundamentals.

What sites do you go for fundamental information?

From the trend trading all pairs site, i found these two:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/default.aspx
(raw fundamental info of all the countries in the world)

http://www.actionforex.com/
(aggregrate of various analysts views from all the brokerages/banks. Just to see what they are thinking)
http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...-fundamentals/

Have you ever used these? Do you have others that might contribute to our knowledge?
  • #202
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:33am Jan 10, 2011 12:33am
Quoting dddd
Micardo. Fundamentals.

What sites do you go for fundamental information?

From the trend trading all pairs site, i found these two:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/default.aspx
(raw fundamental info of all the countries in the world)

http://www.actionforex.com/
(aggregrate of various analysts views from all the brokerages/banks. Just to see what they are thinking)
http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...-fundamentals/

Have you ever used these? Do you have others that might contribute to our knowledge?...
Hi dddd,

Sorry I haven't seen these although now you have pointed them out to me I will take a look.

For fundamentals I do a few things, obviously I look at the Forex Factory interactive calendar for the results and graphs. I also have subscriptions to the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times, it helps to get a picture as to what the sentiment is.

A great site for me is Chuck Butlers www.dailypfennig.com this guys is the man and what he writes really makes sense. He has a free daily news lettter which I recommend you subscribe to.

Another good one is http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/current-issue/ which is also free.

Finally the bloomberg and reuters website is also very good for informtiion as is anything that Kathy Lien writes amongst her different websites.

The key with fundamentals is just building the bigger picture as to what the markets are looking at. You don't need to become an economist, not even close, you just need to work out the current sentiment and trade from there.

I hope that helps.

Micardo
  • #203
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:09am Jan 10, 2011 1:09am
Quoting Micardo
Hi dddd,

Sorry I haven't seen these although now you have pointed them out to me I will take a look.

For fundamentals I do a few things, obviously I look at the Forex Factory interactive calendar for the results and graphs. I also have subscriptions to the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times, it helps to get a picture as to what the sentiment is.

A great site for me is Chuck Butlers www.dailypfennig.com this guys is the man and what he writes really makes sense. He has a free daily news lettter which...
Thanks. I used to read Butler, Funny guy. Kathy Lien too.
Thanks for all the links.

Eurozone is in pain. SWISS and GERMANY exempted.


Portugal, which faces the highest government borrowing costs among the aforementioned countries, needs to redeem more than €30 billion worth of principal and interest payments in 2011, with more than two-thirds of the total redemption scheduled to occur in the first half of the year. Spain, which has an economy that is six times larger than Portugal, needs to roll €150 billion this year. Italy faces a whopping €340 billion worth of redemptions. Therefore, the first potential flash point will be the bond auctions that governments need to conduct over the next few months.
So why are these countries in trouble? For Portugal, growth has been sluggish for the past decade and will likely remain anemic in 2011 and 2012. The legacy of slow growth coupled with a deep recession pushed Portugal's deficit to unsustainable levels at a dizzying pace. Impending fiscal consolidation will exert serious headwinds on Portugal's short-term growth prospects. Unlike Portugal, Spain had strong, above-normal growth in the last expansion, but suffered a devastating collapse in its real estate market. The collapse dealt a serious blow to Spanish banks, forcing the Spanish government to shell out €10 billion to recapitalize ailing banks. The grim prospect of further bailouts, slow growth, and fiscal consolidation puts the Spanish financial system under considerable stress. Italy has inherited a legacy of a 130 percent debt-to-GDP ratio, second only to Greece in the Eurozone, as well as a decade of below-average growth.
  • #204
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:08am Jan 10, 2011 3:08am
I got stopped out of my GBP/CHF short last night by a single pip...and now look at it. I missed the re-entry as well. Good start to the week :-)
  • #205
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:13am Jan 10, 2011 3:13am
Quoting dddd
Thanks. I used to read Butler, Funny guy. Kathy Lien too.
Thanks for all the links.

Eurozone is in pain. SWISS and GERMANY exempted.


Portugal, which faces the highest government borrowing costs among...
Very nicely written. Portugals bond auction is this week and could be very telling. Although in reality we know from the Ireland and Greece scenario that once the situation comes to the fore it is only a matter of time before the markets expectations become a reality. These expectations should help to drive the Euro down over the coming weeks.
  • #206
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:04am Jan 10, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Micardo
I got stopped out of my GBP/CHF short last night by a single pip...and now look at it. I missed the re-entry as well. Good start to the week :-)

Hi Micardo,

thats a shame , would you mind posting a chart or you entry price.


pipfarm
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #207
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:27am Jan 10, 2011 11:27am
Hello Brenzai42! Thank you for your posts. I trade the same method for about 7 years already. As for now, I have 11 pairs for long term trade on my radar. I just wait the end of correction on the Daily in order to enter in the direction of the Weekly trend. It is the best strategy which I know. No one starategy never worked for me so good as this one. I regard the best long term opportunity are to buyUSD/JPY and USD/CHF. These paires have good profit potencials and exellent risk/reword. Please, share your mind. Whats do you have on your radar list for long term trades? Thank you
  • #208
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:07pm Jan 10, 2011 1:07pm
Hi Lite27,

Thanks for your comments on trading. At what point do you actually take a trade on the daily in the direction of the weekly trend? Does the daily first need to make a cross of EMAs like Brenzaj42's method? Thanks for the clarification.

Also, both of the currencies you mentioned for long term to buy are still trending down on the weekly charts, what is your trigger to buy those?

Thanks,

C.
  • #209
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:30pm Jan 10, 2011 2:30pm
Hi Lite27,

It would be great, if you can share with us a bit more regarding the way you trade! I'm also watching closely USD/JPY and USD/CHF, as they are both on nice FIBO levels.

Take care, Trzcinek


Quoting lite27
Hello Brenzai42! Thank you for your posts. I trade the same method for about 7 years already. As for now,...
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #210
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:36pm Jan 10, 2011 3:36pm
Hello everybody, its very simple. First of all it is almost unpossible for big players on forex market as banks and hedge fund not to leave traces of there intensions and its just a matter to read these intensions correctly. Please, look at the Weekly chart of USD/CHF. We can see clear divergince of price to RSI. The divergence tell us be prpared to buy USD. 2. The USD has fallen very much and is on very low levels. Banks and hedge gunds buy cheap, from lows. 3.We can see very good formed weekly railways. It is a strong reversal pattern if it is situated on strong support/resistance level, good shaped and appeared after a fall of price. 4. We can see on Weekly a reversal figure 1-2-3. It is a very strong reversal pattern too. Now whats we need to do is to draw a weekly trendline and the nearest support and resistance lines, but as Raicardo teatched very correctly , from the strong levels which proved itselfs in the past. Now we go to the Daily chart an try to understand: is Dayli price action goes in the direction of Weekly or still in correction mode. As we see on the Daily price was rejected from the strong weekly resistance 0,9731 and is very close the weekly trend line. What can we expact tommorow? I suppose USD will fall and correct first. In order to calculate where we can buy USD for a long term trend after correction will be ended we can draw fibonachi levels and dayli supports. Where we have confluence of fibo plus support, or fibo plus previous lows in past, will be our point of interest. The very last thing is to wait for bullish reversal candle and buy USD for many monthes trade. It will be a long trade I think. If it is interesting for somebody I can make my humble analysis for USD/JPY tommorow. Hope it helps.
  • #211
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:44pm Jan 10, 2011 3:44pm
I want to add that I do not use EMAs, I use trend lines instead, but EMAs are very good in visual determining of trend direction and as support/resistance levels.
  • #212
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:57pm Jan 10, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting lite27
Hello everybody, its very simple. First of all it is almost unpossible for big players on forex market as banks and hedge fund not to leave traces of there intensions and its just a matter to read these intensions correctly. Please, look at the Weekly chart of USD/CHF. We can see clear divergince of price to RSI. The divergence tell us be prpared to buy USD. 2. The USD has fallen very much and is on very low levels. Banks and hedge gunds buy cheap, from lows....
Hi L27..
Perhaps you can add a chart if at all possible...and by all means share any intresting set-ups...it can all help..

cheers

baz
  • #213
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:00pm Jan 10, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting lite27
Hello everybody, its very simple. First of all it is almost unpossible for big players on forex market as banks and hedge fund not to leave traces of there intensions and its just a matter to read these intensions correctly. Please, look at the Weekly chart of USD/CHF. We can see clear divergince of price to RSI. The divergence tell us be prpared to buy USD. 2. The USD has fallen very much and is on very low levels. Banks and hedge gunds buy cheap, from lows....
Just my two cents: i absolutely hate indicators/oscillators. Hey, if it works for you, i guess fine.
  • #214
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:03pm Jan 10, 2011 4:03pm
Micardo. I was reading your other thread.

"How to use fundamentals to make money"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=147218

Plan to continue it?

I am a firm beleiver that fundamentals play roles in this game.
  • #215
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:37pm Jan 10, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting Micardo
Very nicely written. Portugals bond auction is this week and could be very telling. Although in reality we know from the Ireland and Greece scenario that once the situation comes to the fore it is only a matter of time before the markets expectations become a reality. These expectations should help to drive the Euro down over the coming weeks.
Of course, i am inclined to short the EUR against CHF, NZD, etc. because of the nature of fundamental. Any rally in EUR will be shorted at appropriate technical levels. This is why i like fundamental-- it gives me a sense of knowing, in the broad scope of things, why price do what they do. Otherwise, i could be long EUR because it has reach a technical yada with MA's tapdancing/crossover, Fibo extensions, farrari's, mazaratis, or upside down flipped around shannanigans with a side of stochastics.
  • #216
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:15pm Jan 10, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting ForexSimVids
Hi Micardo, thanks.

In this video reply I've tried to identify the price action on the pairs discussed earlier. I've tried to use your guidelines form page 2 of this thread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPiwAlGWJXs

And these are the screens:
Hi ForexSims,

Sorry I haven't had a chance to come back to you on this as of yet. I will watch the video and get back to you if not tonight then first thing in the morning.

Thanks

Micardo
  • #217
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:18pm Jan 10, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting pipfarm
Hi all,


Continuing from my previous post i was hoping for some reaction good or bad .

I propose that each timeframe can contain the components of a higher timeframe trends and we must be aware of this when trading.


ie. The timeframe you are viewing can have its own trend, it can also contain the higher timeframe trend and the longer term trend.


The reason for this is that the timeframe you are viewing will contain the smaller components that go to make up the higher timeframes.

As an example in the first chart i have posted of the...
Hey Pipfarm,

Sorry I wasn't aware that you wanted a reply, I thought you were providing some words of wisdom more than asking a question.

But in any case yes of course one should always be aware of where they are in the time frame that they are trading as well as the longer term time frames as each time frame can almost have a life of its own. As you mentioned a trend on an hour could be a small counter trend retracement on something like the 4hour or Daily. In any case it would be nice to know that information so that you do not trade into any nasty levels :-)

Thanks for your input it is valued!

Micardo
  • #218
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:21pm Jan 10, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting pipfarm
Hi Micardo,

thats a shame , would you mind posting a chart or you entry price.


pipfarm
Hi Pipfarm,

I will posting a chart of a new setup on the same pair later but the intial setup is off of the 1.5055 level on the 4 hour chart with an entry at 1.4944.

Ciao for now

Micardo
  • #219
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:24pm Jan 10, 2011 5:24pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 167 KB


Posting a trade I took this morning with the USDJPY
Reasons are;
1) with the trend
2) retraced to a S/R Line
3) retraced to the 78% Fib level of last swing
4) retraced to a trend line
5) P.Action formed a Pin Bar (More or less)

Please let me know if I am on the right track. and what is your opinion of the 78% fib? Is this getting to far retraced?

Thanks
Always Learning
  • #220
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:39pm Jan 10, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting dddd
Micardo. I was reading your other thread.

"How to use fundamentals to make money"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=147218

Plan to continue it?

I am a firm beleiver that fundamentals play roles in this game.
Hi dddd,

Wow I forgot about this thread. I started this two years ago... I guess I got really busy around then and couldn't pay it any more attention.

Yes sure I can re-open it if you like? Is there anyone else here interested in learning some fundamentals?

Micardo
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