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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #141
  • Dec 23, 2010 4:10pm Dec 23, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting newyear498
The back tests have given consistent results on 4 different currencies.. like I said I have max bars, downloaded historical data.. and 90% mock up accuracy

hook this bad boy up on another computer to forward test.. woke up this morning and its up 2%

ofcourse backtests are ridiculous returns.. I imagine its just a good sign to pursue and more forward testing is needed

but why is everyone crying about the backtests.. you really think there a waste of time?

I don't see why my backtests are "broken" unless you can clearly define what aspects...
OH FFS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'll be straight with you newyear.... YOU PISS ME OFF WITH YOUR STUPIDITY!

you keep alternating between making posts where you try to sound like your shit don't stink and you are so clever and know what trading is all about and you are just a clever clever little guy and we should all give you tonnes of respect, and then in the very next post you will ask some COMPLETELY beginner question and show how very little you really know about anything!

just so you know, without having discussed you with anyone else (because really, why the hell would i ever bother?) i can almost guarantee that the rest of us are all watching you "play grown up" while you play with your playdough and crayons at the kids table!

IF you believe you have a successful EA then PLEASE FUCKING PLEASE copy the code and save it somewhere away from your computer so that you don't completely fuck it up by changing it and losing it's base and can always refer back to it anytime you need to! THERE! THAT ONE YOU GET FOR FREE! THAT'S THE BEST GODDAMN ADVISE ANYONE CAN PROBABLY GIVE YOU.

IF you don't know why backtesting is bullshit... then get your sorry ass on google and learn WTF mt4 backtesting DOES do and DOES NOT DO if you can't figure it out for yourself by simply watching what it does and doesn't do and the results it gives. IT'S ALL RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU AND YOU CAN'T SEE IT. if you are so clever like you want people to believe then you will quickly figure out why it's not reliable.

goddamn you really REALLY irk me. you don't even know what you don't know, and what you don't know could fill a "for dummies" book volume one AND two!
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #142
  • Dec 23, 2010 4:40pm Dec 23, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting nubcake
OH FFS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'll be straight with you newyear.... YOU PISS ME OFF WITH YOUR STUPIDITY!

you keep alternating between making posts where you try to sound like your shit don't stink and you are so clever and know what trading is all about and you are just a clever clever little guy and we should all give you tonnes of respect, and then in the very next post you will ask some COMPLETELY beginner question and show how very little you really know about anything!

just so you know, without having...
  • #143
  • Dec 23, 2010 4:52pm Dec 23, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting nubcake
OH FFS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'll be straight with you newyear.......
Ok nubs you say,

"you keep alternating between making posts where you try to sound like your shit don't stink and you are so clever and know what trading is all about and you are just a clever clever little guy and we should all give you tonnes of respect, and then in the very next post you will ask some COMPLETELY beginner question"

seems obvious to me an electrician would suggest how to fix a tv.. but consult a plumber how to fix a leak... kinda the situation I'm in between experence/theories with markets and new to metatrader backtests

but anyways thanks for you for advice.. already backed up the EA

from my previous google searches I found it was inaccurate but I also found how to make it the best you can get it..



anyways I'm sure I could fill a "dummies" book with things I don't now.. and narrow it just to the markets you could still fill the book.. but I'm sure same is true for you.. and I'm sure we could both write a book specializing in what we do know..

see this thread wouldn't be so off topic if after I posted my EA I got insight into what to do.. rather than "heres my negative input and by the way your an idiot newyear" (mostly adal..)

actually you were insightful by suggesting to double triple check etc.. I did do that and I had no issue with you.. you simply have an issue with me.. although I think for some very irrational reasons..
  • #144
  • Dec 23, 2010 5:04pm Dec 23, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting newyear498
Ok nubs you say,

"you keep alternating between making posts where you try to sound like your shit don't stink and you are so clever and know what trading is all about and you are just a clever clever little guy and we should all give you tonnes of respect, and then in the very next post you will ask some COMPLETELY beginner question"

seems obvious to me an electrician would suggest how to fix a tv.. but consult a plumber how to fix a leak... kinda the situation I'm in between experence/theories with markets and new to metatrader backtests

but...
on one hand i want to help you (when i feel i can be bothered being helpful to anyone), but on the other YOU MAKE MY BRAIN HURT!!!

there's world of stuff i don't know (and would like to know). no question. i even admit i'm not profitable (apart from this last month or so which has been an enigma). but being profitable or not and having the secrets or grails or not does not exclude me from knowing some of the fundamentals and having a fairly good grasp on what is what and what is NOT.

the shit you sometimes come out with just boggles the mind. it's like you skipped from grade 1 to grade 5 and have some ideas about some things but never grasped the very beginner stuff that forms the basis of all other thinking and perspectives. you want to write the next blockbuster film script but never learned how to write, let alone type... and everyone else has to keep bringing you up to speed and teaching you what most already know from their own research and learning.

it's like you were shown how to run before you learned to walk, and don't even know what walking is to understand it's place amongst things? *brain implode*
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #145
  • Dec 23, 2010 5:20pm Dec 23, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting nubcake
on one hand i want to help you (when i feel i can be bothered being helpful to anyone), but on the other YOU MAKE MY BRAIN HURT!!!

there's world of stuff i don't know (and would like to know)....
If thats true its probably because I came from stocks/swing trading to Forex/ daytrading and I'm caught in the whole transition where otheres maybe came straight to forex and day trading.. lol

anyways appreciate it.. and yeah I know I don't know a shit load of stuff.. actually what I do a lot is I'll be looking for an answer but overlooked something simple along the process. I do that shit all the time hah so you called that good
  • #146
  • Dec 23, 2010 5:22pm Dec 23, 2010 5:22pm
I'm downloading some additional tick data and historical spread data to up the ante on the back tests.. but anyways forward testing overall is on its valuable time consuming way
  • #147
  • Jan 5, 2011 12:09pm Jan 5, 2011 12:09pm
totally random to throw in this thread.. but was just thinking about how gravity probably affects the psychology of the market..

our human sense of gravity could explain a lot of buying and selling conditions when seeing price go down its like our 6th sense that gravity has to make it fall faster

or when we see it go up its like "what goes up must come down" but thats just a reference to gravity that I suspect the market is only subject to due to humans causing the market to react to artificial gravity..

like if in the future humans move to space stations and there is a universal stock market.. so just imagine the markets from say STARWARS minus the different creatures.. I don't think I could trade since there would be so many different factors and living conditions for each world and human..

but back to gravity.. you grew up in a space station never to know gravity physically.. but you were trading against earth bound humans.. I think space traders would have a huge advantage or disadvantage not being aware of the artificial gravity influencing the markets

well i'm clearly weird.. oh well lol
  • #148
  • Jan 5, 2011 3:54pm Jan 5, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting newyear498
totally random to throw in this thread.. but was just thinking about how gravity probably affects the psychology of the market..

our human sense of gravity could explain a lot of buying and selling conditions when seeing price go down its like our 6th sense that gravity has to make it fall faster

well i'm clearly weird.. oh well lol
Sounds reasonable.

Gravity is like proprioception, as in following the price on its rolling path.
It'd likely be just as important as viewing the screen and considering whether to 'touch' (change) a trade.

The gravity of other planets and stars is something a few traders do well with.
I've alway wondered about how magma near the earth's core affects people when it moves around.
  • #149
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:29pm Jan 5, 2011 4:29pm
The law of gravity has nothing to do with the market. Price is not subject to one constant/static one-directional gravity force.
  • #150
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:45pm Jan 5, 2011 4:45pm
Sorry but there isn't anything left to be out side the box.

I think it's nearer 99.5% of people fail at this game, 0.4% are doing okay and only 0.1% makes the kinda money we dream about.

1 in a 1000 of making in big, still better odds than winning the lottery over your life ( 2 tickets per week, 60 years = 14.9Mil / 2 / 60 / 52 = 1 : 2387 see )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #151
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:44pm Jan 5, 2011 5:44pm
Quoting Marv
The law of gravity has nothing to do with the market. Price is not subject to one constant/static one-directional gravity force.
the idea was like ha-pattern said "proprioception"

as humans we can sense up and down.. and traders may treat the market as if it has gravity since our bodies are under gravitational elements.. thus the markets would have artificial gravity
  • #152
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:36pm Jan 5, 2011 10:36pm
Now I don't know much about the actual theory of black swan... but from what I get its unforeseen events that you cannot predict.. either way what I write is about profiting from the unforeseen events..


so this is pretty darn outside the box... in relation to people who must be doing this at least..

what if your entire trading just revolved around the unforeseen events.. well if there unforeseen newyear how the hell can we profit from it...


basically a giant breakout system.. or the reverse.. so if you have a breakout set like 500 pips away from the day.. the one day something crazy happens and it rallies up or down you would be in riding it

or like in stocks have a $10 stock with pending short orders at $100 so if it was to have a glitch or rally up you would short it at a $100 in the likely event it will return to its normal $10


I don't know if you could make a living doing this but was just something weird I thought of..

  • #153
  • Jan 5, 2011 11:50pm Jan 5, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting newyear498
Now I don't know much about the actual theory of black swan... but from what I get its unforeseen events that you cannot predict.. either way what I write is about profiting from the unforeseen events..


so this is pretty darn outside the box... in relation to people who must be doing this at least..

what if your entire trading just revolved around the unforeseen events.. well if there unforeseen newyear how the hell can we profit from it...


basically a giant breakout system.. or the reverse.. so if you have a breakout set like 500 pips...
The thing is these events are so rare that you can not justify the amount of time spent on trying to catch them.
  • #154
  • Jan 5, 2011 11:59pm Jan 5, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting stockey
The thing is these events are so rare that you can not justify the amount of time spent on trying to catch them.
thats how I felt.. but sure could prepare a master plan that is in sleeper mode 24/7 for such an event

at the very least it would hedge you against such event if not provide additional returns
  • #155
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:57am Jan 10, 2011 11:57am
I seem to have a tendency to stir up this convo again and again lol


but I was just thinking how people complain that MA are lagging

but in theory all the data is lagging..

I mean.. how can you have a buy or a sell order appear on the chart until after that order is placed

so anything related to the chart is lagging in one sense or another.. some more then others.. I would actually argue that a MA is not lagging since its purpose is to measure an average.. it does its job as up to date as possible.. how else can you average? lol.. I think people see a MA away from the actual price bar and say its lagging.. you could still interpret that information without using cross overs as a signal etc..

anyways just my thoughts that Price Action is lagging.. how can you not be lagging when all the information is not available until after an order is placed

if you want a leading indicator then you would in theory need to have a lead before an order is placed



BUT BEFORE YOU ARGUE WITH ME.. everything I said is taking terms into a very literal sense.. I'm sure most people are using there terms loosely and by saying a MA is lagging they mean it trails price rather than the literal sense that it is 5 minutes off time with the current average and lagging to keep up with its own calculation

but anyways just saying about the actual chart information is all lagging because it can't be available until after the order is placed..
  • #156
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:00pm Jan 10, 2011 12:00pm
Leading indicators aren't possible, they either repaint or there wrong, simple as.


Momentum is all we have to go on, if the market is moving up, hopefully whats making it move up won't change and it'll keep moving up, simple as.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #157
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:07pm Jan 10, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting Turveyd
Leading indicators aren't possible, they either repaint or there wrong, simple as.


Momentum is all we have to go on, if the market is moving up, hopefully whats making it move up won't change and it'll keep moving up, simple as.
Thanks Turveyd,

its like a battle to identify the most important lagging data lol

but I would agree off first hand that momentum is a good insight.. figuring the rate of change to project future movement seems like a logical approach and one I am still returning to over and over again


  • #158
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:18pm Jan 10, 2011 12:18pm
This kinda gives some insight into a few things which include concepts if the markets are really random among a few other insightful things..

If your driving.. and the road is going left.. why would you take a right off the road.. I suppose if the markets are random you might have some insight into going off road since it will randomly go anywhere..

but besides the random concept and just into a traders mind.. why would you want to take a right anyways.. sure you can't see beyond your headlights.. but what you can see within your headlights the road is clearly going left.. so until your headlights show a change in the road direction why would your try to predict ahead of your headlights?

just saying..
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  • #159
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:24pm Jan 10, 2011 12:24pm
I made a new note by the way..

I am also opening the thread to any idea.. it doesn't need to be "outside the box" just some interesting thought or perspective.. I'm sick of reading "this is not outside the box..." I'm just interested in seeing some insightful ideas and perspectives at the very least

rather than argue what is "outside the box"
  • #160
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:39pm Jan 10, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting newyear498
...basically a giant breakout system.. or the reverse.. so if you have a breakout set like 500 pips away from the day.. the one day something crazy happens and it rallies up or down you would be in riding it
Not that far away. But "black swan" is, at least for the markets, just descriptive shorthand for describing the reality of the "fat tail" distributions.

A strategy that is going to pursue this sees the market as being dominated by the two modes that correspond to the two deviations from normality: too frequent periods of small-move chop (as the E.U has been showing for 24 hours), and then sudden, relentless excursions that the standard technical and PA monitoring cannot explain and didn't see coming.

So those strategies generally will do two things initially.

The first is fundamental, and maybe based in the apperceptive logic of the old-timer sitting on a bench who tells you, "yep, it's gonna snow some hard. I can feel it in my knee, and it's in those clouds up over Independence Pass." Of course, we look up at the mountains and all we see are some jet contrails and a couple whispy clouds. And tomorrow it snows two feet.

Then, the strategies need to get in. They can do as you describe, in a Turtle-trading like breakout call, or they can start a sequence of take-and-cover positions in the chop, knowing they may get clipped 3 or 5 times or more.

Either way, it's a costly business to get in, but the strategies get paid back when it happens.
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