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Silent Service Method

  • #11,561
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:52am Jan 7, 2011 12:52am
Quoting clockwork71
For what it's worth - every time over the last few years I thought a NFP was going to be a huge event - it wasn't. I gave up. LOL
It's more like a crappy commercial interrupting a good TV show.
  • #11,562
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:57am Jan 7, 2011 6:57am
Quoting clockwork71
EUR/USD

Happy New year Chris and to everyone.

It will be nice to read about your side strategy when it is completed.

Thanks
  • #11,563
  • Jan 7, 2011 8:29am Jan 7, 2011 8:29am
We got the number, and again - not a big deal one way or the other so far.

I think maybe it's time to officially declare news trading dead? Funny how you don't hear much talk of it anymore. When I started trading Forex, trading NFP was something that everyone advocated!

Oh how the times have changed, probably for the better.

Chris
  • #11,564
  • Jan 7, 2011 8:53am Jan 7, 2011 8:53am
Hey C W what do you think of the AUD/CAD. It has been steady down and bounced near support albeit news day. I was looking at this area and possibly wait for some pa either way. Thanks MR D
Jesus my Lord
  • #11,565
  • Jan 7, 2011 9:00am Jan 7, 2011 9:00am
After the triple top on the Daily it seems to be turning over. Possible sell if it goes below .9700 and then we see some pin bar or other PA Regards MR D
Jesus my Lord
  • #11,566
  • Jan 7, 2011 9:34am Jan 7, 2011 9:34am
Quoting Low
It's more like a crappy commercial interrupting a good TV show.
  • #11,567
  • Jan 7, 2011 9:40am Jan 7, 2011 9:40am
Quoting clockwork71
We got the number, and again - not a big deal one way or the other so far.

I think maybe it's time to officially declare news trading dead? Funny how you don't hear much talk of it anymore. When I started trading Forex, trading NFP was something that everyone advocated!

Oh how the times have changed, probably for the better.

Chris
Not surprising though given how badly manipulated they are to try and support whatever the current agenda is of The Bernank. Traders quickly learn and discount bullsh$t in the market. It's troubling when you can't even believe economic numbers coming from your government. Interesting also that so many in the US criticize the Chinese for manipulating their figures......

For me that is the only long term tail risk to the Citibank trade, whether the US economy as we know it is around in 10-20 years time. If it keeps being run as it is, I dare say things may look very different.

You guys should check this out. An interesting geopolitical view of the current US situation. To be taken in context but it is hard to refute that there is some very interesting information presented.

http://fora.tv/2010/07/28/Niall_Ferg...os#fullprogram

Enjoy your weekend all. Also Chris check the AUDUSD, it's putting in a bullish reversal day right on the daily 38.2% retracement of the latest push up. Worth keeping an eye on it if nothing for the +ve yield.
  • #11,568
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:29pm Jan 7, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting 4xAddict
....Enjoy your weekend all. Also Chris check the AUDUSD, it's putting in a bullish reversal day right on the daily 38.2% retracement of the latest push up. Worth keeping an eye on it if nothing for the +ve yield.
4X,

Would you put up a chart please. I've got some TL's on the Aussie, but it looks like we're closing below them, and I'd probably be more inclined to short it.
  • #11,569
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:42pm Jan 7, 2011 12:42pm
I'll take any feed back on this one:

This is a prime example of when I don't know what to do. The chart is audcad. I shorted it at the double top and added on a test of a TL I had drawn. Both positions were about 200 pips in profit, and now today we're printing a bullish pinbar, at the previous highest high. The zoomed out daily is just to show where my TL's come from. The weekly is bearish enough, and I'm also short silver, which seems to be proving out, so I can't ignore the correlation.

Short from 1.0116 and 1.0081

Charts:

http://i52.tinypic.com/5d8gnq.png

http://i52.tinypic.com/14jmb1t.png

http://i56.tinypic.com/2cpautk.png
  • #11,570
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:47pm Jan 7, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting Low
4X,

Would you put up a chart please. I've got some TL's on the Aussie, but it looks like we're closing below them, and I'd probably be more inclined to short it.
It would be based entirely on a daily close that shows a bullish reversal - ideally an bullish engulfing candle/bar. The price action was setting up earlier however looks like the daily pivot may end up capping the price action and killing that idea.

Overall I like it down to 0.94 while 1.03 cap price and am looking for the 1.0050-1.01 area for a short.

At present the price action has folded lower with the pressure on everything not USDs so will likely not be a trade but will wait till close before getting too excited.

I would like to see it make a new low around 0.9865-0.9880 and the EURUSD to make new lows to the 1.2865-1/2880 level as these would offer nice potential for short term reversal and give a higher point to sell in. Hope to see them fall away into close giving us a chance to short from a better spot on late Monday/Tues next week.

My favourite trade is shorting GBPCHF between 1.5060 and 1.5160 with stops above 1.5325. Waiting for a nice reversal bar there to get in on the action.
  • #11,571
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:50pm Jan 7, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting Low
I'll take any feed back on this one:

This is a prime example of when I don't know what to do. The chart is audcad. I shorted it at the double top and added on a test of a TL I had drawn. Both positions were about 200 pips in profit, and now today we're printing a bullish pinbar, at the previous highest high. The zoomed out daily is just to show where my TL's come from. The weekly is bearish enough, and I'm also short silver, which seems to be proving out, so I can't ignore the correlation.

Short from 1.0116 and 1.0081
I like the short in this pair on the monthly. The bearish engulfing bar from November was almost broken in Dec but failed and is not back and looking to approach the Nov lows. IMHO a break of the Nov lows equates to a sell signal. The falling trend line on the monthly is the clearest outlook for the pair that I can see.
  • #11,572
  • Jan 7, 2011 10:16pm Jan 7, 2011 10:16pm
Had a pending order hit today. EUR/USD sell at 1.2940. The main reason is that we had solid support at 1.30 in the context of consolidation after a trend line break. Since it's with the overall trend, I can live with it being filled today. I placed the order at 1.2940 because of the wicks at 1.30, I wanted to make sure they were blown past. Also, the "50" number can be a minor area as well, so that's why the entry at 40.

I am aware that we stopped right at a minor support zone, but all I can do is try and stack the odds in my favor. I knew this was possible today, and that's life.

I think I was at the gym when I got filled. Can't remember. But that's the point. I knew ahead of time where I was interested in this chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 35 KB
  • #11,573
  • Jan 7, 2011 10:18pm Jan 7, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Not surprising though given how badly manipulated they are to try and support whatever the current agenda is of The Bernank. Traders quickly learn and discount bullsh$t in the market. It's troubling when you can't even believe economic numbers coming from your government. Interesting also that so many in the US criticize the Chinese for manipulating their figures......

For me that is the only long term tail risk to the Citibank trade, whether the US economy as we know it is around in 10-20 years time. If it keeps being run as it is, I dare say...

As for the AUD, all I know is the thing is beating the shit out of the Euro at the moment.....

I agree about the economy being quite different, and it wouldn't surprise me. However, Citi is counter party to far too many governments for it to fail. Of course, our stocks might be at $100 a share, while our $100 only buys a pack of gum.....but that's a risk with anything.
  • #11,574
  • Jan 7, 2011 10:48pm Jan 7, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting 4xAddict
I like the short in this pair on the monthly. The bearish engulfing bar from November was almost broken in Dec but failed and is not back and looking to approach the Nov lows. IMHO a break of the Nov lows equates to a sell signal. The falling trend line on the monthly is the clearest outlook for the pair that I can see.

I have to agree. However, we could just be consolidating for the time being. For someone that wasn't in this pair at the moment, I would be willing to sell it if the daily pinbar got violated......
  • #11,575
  • Jan 8, 2011 10:21am Jan 8, 2011 10:21am
Quoting clockwork71
Had a pending order hit today. EUR/USD sell at 1.2940.
Hey Chris, what about the USDCHF short you entered earlier? Did you close it out already, or are you now net EURCHF short? (Depending on the respective position sizes).

Regards
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #11,576
  • Jan 8, 2011 10:57am Jan 8, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Noloqy
Hey Chris, what about the USDCHF short you entered earlier? Did you close it out already, or are you now net EURCHF short? (Depending on the respective position sizes).

Regards
No I'm still short. But I do have my s/l at b/e now, as I don't like it's recent action.

And yes, in a round about way - I am short EUR/CHF.
  • #11,577
  • Jan 9, 2011 5:33pm Jan 9, 2011 5:33pm
Here were are at the start of another week. Looks like money wants to flow back into N. America at the moment. Interest rate decisions out of the UK and Europe are up this week, and there shouldn't be an change. The statements will be followed, but they will not say much either. (odds are that way at least.)
  • #11,578
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:34am Jan 10, 2011 11:34am
Great work on this thread. I follow it a lot but am still learning.
I would like to know if its possible for somebody to trade stocks and futures being as far as i am from the US market.
Stocks are really affected by speculations and my only source of information is the internet unlike most of you in the developed world who are swarmed by media outlets.
Is it possible for me to stay on toes with the internet only and be able to be trade stocks like the rest of the developed world and be able to turn a profit?
  • #11,579
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:42am Jan 10, 2011 11:42am
Quoting mwafrika
Great work on this thread. I follow it a lot but am still learning.
I would like to know if its possible for somebody to trade stocks and futures being as far as i am from the US market.
Stocks are really affected by speculations and my only source of information is the internet unlike most of you in the developed world who are swarmed by media outlets.
Is it possible for me to stay on toes with the internet only and be able to be trade stocks like the rest of the developed world and be able to turn a profit?

My advice is this: Yes, you can trade stocks, but I would shy away from futures, or at least trading them directly because of the volatility involved until you are extremely successful at trading in general.

With stock however, I would focus on the higher time frames, maybe the weekly and monthly. That way - you won't have the day-to-day noise messing with your positions.

Stocks are actually quite predictable, if you zoom out far enough.

Chris
  • #11,580
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:09pm Jan 10, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
My advice is this: Yes, you can trade stocks, but I would shy away from futures, or at least trading them directly because of the volatility involved until you are extremely successful at trading in general.

With stock however, I would focus on the higher time frames, maybe the weekly and monthly. That way - you won't have the day-to-day noise messing with your positions.

Stocks are actually quite predictable, if you zoom out far enough.

Chris
Thanks. I read somewhere that its good to diversify and trade other markets and not forex alone. I would like to venture into stocks as well.Any advice is great, thanks again.
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