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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #21,461
  • Edited 1:07am Jan 7, 2011 12:51am | Edited 1:07am
Quoting hcong168
I trade mostly Asia trading hours till 5-6pm (GMT+8), where it has less movement, typically. This means that I don't have opportunity to add too many layers, as compare to US session.
Hcong

R u trading fulltime?

Does that mean u "eat snake" & trade during office hours
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #21,462
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:55am Jan 7, 2011 12:55am
Quoting Sylar
Hcong

R u trading fulltime?

Does that mean u "eat snake" & trade during office hours
I eat a lot of things ...
  • #21,463
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:08am Jan 7, 2011 1:08am
Quoting hcong168
I eat a lot of things ...
Good stuffs must share with fellow S'poreans
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #21,464
  • Edited 1:54am Jan 7, 2011 1:29am | Edited 1:54am
Mamood & triger
Inserted Video



Made me think of Richard. He was myrill lynch's best and later SIMEX's first VP.
Kick ass trader he was.
Richard's favourite songs, RIP , richard loke my good friend.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #21,465
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:33am Jan 7, 2011 1:33am
Hi again friends.

Doing my news and chartwork now.
Was there anything of interest during asian session so far?

Thx,
Niels
  • #21,466
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:41am Jan 7, 2011 1:41am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again friends.

Doing my news and chartwork now.
Was there anything of interest during asian session so far?

Thx,
Niels
Yes, the writers, they shit flour.

regards
  • #21,467
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:42am Jan 7, 2011 1:42am
Just for info:

When you are going to play the NFP game later this trading day, please keep this in mind and stay NIMBLE:


[...]
The market is likely going to consolidate ahead of the key US non-farm payroll data. Expectations for a much stronger US job number have been building since Barclays Capital put out a note saying the was a 95% chance the private US payroll growth would exceed 450 K. This sets the market up for disappointment of the number comes in at the median forecast of 185 K or worse. If US payrolls grow at better than 250 K - the EUR/USD will most likely suffer a sharp fall towards 1.2900. (JN) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possibel Cow Dung included ;-)

BTW: Media is paying much attention to AUDUSD atm ...
Will keep an eye on it too.
  • #21,468
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:51am Jan 7, 2011 1:51am
Quoting fti
Yes, the writers, they shit flour.

regards

Good Morning fti!
Yeah - most of the time.

But this more or less objective info maybe of interest :-)

[...]
A flurry of selling activity from levels around 1.3020-25 and among the players one Asian Central bank, which flies in the face of the on-going ACB demand for the cheaper EUR. On the buy side the Asian bids reportedly sit in the 1.2960-70 area and stops are touted tight below 1.2960, 1.2950 and 1.2940. More Asian bids rumoured at 1.2935 and then the larger stops kick in below 1.2925. We are also hearing of a 1.2900 option barrier with associated stops below the figure. Buy stops are expected to take hold above 1.3030 and 1.3050.

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #21,469
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:53am Jan 7, 2011 1:53am
Quoting MaMood
Just for info:

When you are going to play the NFP game later this trading day, please keep this in mind and stay NIMBLE:
[indent]
[...]
The market is likely going to consolidate ahead of the key US non-farm payroll data. Expectations for a much stronger US job number have been building since Barclays Capital put out a note saying the was a 95% chance the private US payroll growth would exceed 450 K. This sets the market up for disappointment of the number comes in at the median forecast of 185 K or worse. If US payrolls grow at better...
Hi Niels, I don't understand those figures. The figures I read stated a median forecast of 150k growth in NFP, which was also the figure predicted by Barclay's capital.

Where did you get 450k for BC and a median of 185k from? (well I can see that you have quoted from somewhere but don't understand the 450k number really)

EDIT: Sorry you stated private payroll growth, not NFP, but that's still only 165k on what I saw, not 450k?

Thanks

Mark
  • #21,470
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:01am Jan 7, 2011 2:01am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Hi Niels, I don't understand those figures. The figures I read stated a median forecast of 150k growth in NFP, which was also the figure predicted by Barclay's capital.

Where did you get 450k for BC and a median of 185k from?

Thanks

Mark
That are just snippets from Reuters and Dowjones Newswires.
Seems these figs are cursing around in the media.

But please do not rely on such absolute numbers.
The reason for posting it was just, that the expectation are now really high (after ADP data) and much about the published forecasts. So that even when the forcasts are hit the market maybe disapointed ...

MAybe it is a good hint for all readers, that my news posting are most of the time only useable for ruogh judgement of market sentiment. I do not focus in anyway on these numbers. They just give me an idea about what the masses are believing atm, cause the masses are trading the markets ...

Sorry for confusion!

But now let'S focus on the London Boys ...
  • #21,471
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:04am Jan 7, 2011 2:04am
Never mind, I can't even find where I read the figures from a few minutes ago!
What a fool I am.
  • #21,472
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:44am Jan 7, 2011 2:44am
Very lazy session so far.
Have not even deployed any scout.
Just watching the charts to get any hint if there will be something worth trading before NFP event.
But it does not look like that for now ...
  • #21,473
  • Edited 2:57am Jan 7, 2011 2:45am | Edited 2:57am
Oh - the lady proves me wrong

Edit: Stop hunting for long entry????
We will see.
Alerted now.
Finger on the trigger ...

Edit: Still waiting.
Nothing serious for now ...
  • #21,474
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:06am Jan 7, 2011 3:06am
So that's what stop hunting looks like-I will have to bring up the issue of stop hunts tmw.

Newton's laws at work right? (the strong test and the quick bounce up)

I do not have mindset or time to commit today so staying out, but popping in and out to see what's up.

Wanted to add-1H 3k looks good across board, EU and UJ aligned in daily (but GU acting badly)-What's up GU?
  • #21,475
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:10am Jan 7, 2011 3:10am
Quoting fullperson
So that's what stop hunting looks like-I will have to bring up the issue of stop hunts tmw.

Newton's laws at work right? (the strong test and the quick bounce up)

I do not have mindset or time to commit today so staying out, but popping in and out to see what's up.
Hi Fullperson. Dont forget, that actions are very quick and the situation differs in every moment...

Stay connected... not looking for that or that... that should be automatical. And in minutes or seconds it can be easily far history...
(Imho i also thinking of something as MaMood posted... but be nimble)
Regards
  • #21,476
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:16am Jan 7, 2011 3:16am
yes that is very very true fana. The concept was hard to grasp at first, but now w/ some practice is makes sense.

I missed the down wave but caught up wave around 2966 and am out after lack of momentum. Of course right after that wave I knew I was setting bad habit of not taking trades as seriously as I should have ( I am sitting in my bed...). SO I stopped right there (no mindset, only forming bad habits).

oh lol, now price back at possible levels..shucks just when something was happening

nice, GU doing some moving, previous pattern feel like cup and handle (if you ignore the spike)
  • #21,477
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:20am Jan 7, 2011 3:20am
Quoting fullperson
yes that is very very true fana. The concept was hard to grasp at first, but now w/ some practice is makes sense.

I missed the down wave but caught up wave around 2966 and am out after lack of momentum. Of course right after that wave I knew I was setting bad habit of not taking trades as seriously as I should have ( I am sitting in my bed...). SO I stopped right there (no mindset, only forming bad habits).
. First is you. Your mindset and connection to the market. So you didnt miss anything. If you "were not there". Regards
  • #21,478
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:20am Jan 7, 2011 3:20am
Quoting fti
Mamood & triger
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsvVzAn_qlI
Just checking up with the thread.

you've made my day, nice listening (hope Mamood clear to you the confusion) --> A Man

it's a good start to begin your day.

I'm currently reading through the thread, is just speechless if you have an open mind to receive what it can give to you,you could benefit enormously.

I can hear every word back of my mind, they've already guide me to a land of freedom, they are part of me, of my sense,feel much more better and my state of mind is always in check, is in sync with me.
Man, I 'm the only one who moves so slowly reading the thread, I like to hang around to each subject in particular a long period of time, I like to do my own thinking, and sometime I meditate for to long (hope I'll not get sleep from it)

Damit,I couldn't close my eye last night, something was keeping my mind busy,and on 3:00am what do you think I was doing?

Yep, reading through the thread. A true workaholic

Need to go back to my cave, have to attend some of my schedules.

Already have speak to much

all the best!
  • #21,479
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:27am Jan 7, 2011 3:27am
Quoting fullperson
So that's what stop hunting looks like-I will have to bring up the issue of stop hunts tmw.

Newton's laws at work right? (the strong test and the quick bounce up)

I do not have mindset or time to commit today so staying out, but popping in and out to see what's up.

Wanted to add-1H 3k looks good across board, EU and UJ aligned in daily (but GU acting badly)-What's up GU?
Some pain in the behind scaring markets.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...931784650.html

hope some one break his crystal balls.
  • #21,480
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:27am Jan 7, 2011 3:27am
Quoting fti
Mamood & triger
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsvVzAn_qlI


Made me think of Richard. He was myrill lynch's best and later SIMEX's first VP.
Kick ass trader he was.
Richard's favourite songs, RIP , richard loke my good friend.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySSr2H6xGXQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsGQwV0Ppiw

Ohh - missed that posting of you, fti.

Have still a smile on my face, when thinking about my fauxpas yesterday.
But that makes life worth living ...
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