Technical Analysis Fallacy

Still riding cable south, and have a full postion in the E/$ at 1.3076, protecting the entry price.

.5485 liquidate

done for the day.

wish you a good day/night (depends on your location)

all the best!!

OK, I am square on the GBP/$ trade at 1.5470, and square on the E/$ at 1.3040. Waiting for a better price on cable to re-enter.

Oh I missed that nice move down.
But I should not be too greedy.
Tomorrow we will have many new opportunities for sure ...

Fti has had a good grasp for what will happen soon ...
Cool!
I hope I'll get that market feeling too sometime in the future, after 20 more years of training :-)

aaah - 12500.
I see.
Have an idea now, why you have chosen that number ...

Rest well.

Cu tomorrow.
Niels

Juts for info:

Is belgium the next PIIGS country????

BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--Johan Vande Lanotte resigned Thursday as mediator of talks between Belgium's two main language groups, prolonging a deadlock that has left the country without a government since elections in June and sparking fresh worries on bond markets about the country's ability to repay its debt.

The spread, or difference, between yields on Belgian and German bonds increased Thursday to 113.3 basis points from 100.3 basis points the day before. However, volume was light, and the spreads were below highs over 150 in November during the worst days of the European debt crisis.

Although Belgium's debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio is 100%, behind only Greece and Italy in the euro zone, it has so far encountered no problems issuing new debt, thanks to its high domestic savings rate and its stellar repayment record.

[...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

A little summary of the actions behind the moves ...

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro sold off sharply Thursday to its weakest level in more than a month against the dollar, as confidence grew in the quickening pace of the U.S. economic recovery.

The euro was further hampered by debt-laden countries in the euro zone weighing down the long-term prospects of the region, said several analysts.

Fresh concerns about the euro zone were twofold Thursday, said analysts. The euro zone's sovereign default insurance cost hit its highest level ever, according to Markit. Also, concern about a potential move by the European Union to spread bailout costs to senior bond holders has pushed banks to be more reluctant to lend to each other, traders said. That was reflected in the two-year U.S. swap spread widening to a level last seen in mid-December.

"One of the reasons we have seen the euro selling is that we continue to see (credit-default swaps') spreads widening," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York. "That, combined with talk of euro bondholders sharing the burden of a bailout, is having a large impact on the euro," she said.

The common currency's selling momentum intensified in midmorning trading as dealers reported the 10 a.m. EST expiration of a so-called digital option that entitled the buyer to a large payout in the event that the euro failed to sustain itself above $1.3125. The currency tumbled to session lows at $1.2997, its lowest level since Dec. 1 and well below its 200-day moving average around the $1.3080 level.

With Wednesday's surprising jump in U.S. private-payrolls data for last month as a backdrop, the dollar has also been underpinned by growing expectations that Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will show improvement in long-stagnant labor markets. Other data have reflected an increasingly vigorous economic expansion in the U.S., but sustained job creation has been hard to find.

"Certainly I think it's tough to build any long euro positions heading into tomorrow's job numbers," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments.

"Signs the U.S. labor market is showing improvement could spur chatter that the (Federal Reserve) might not need to buy assets ... which had been at heart of (the) dollar's decline," he added.
Earlier, figures showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose slightly less than expected last week. Initial unemployment claims rose by 18,000 to 409,000 in the week ended Jan. 1, the Labor Department said Thursday in its weekly report. The previous week's figures were revised upward to 391,000 from 388,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected claims would climb by 22,000 to 410,000 in the latest week.

The euro recently traded at $1.3015, down from $1.3150 late Wednesday, according to EBS via CQG. Against the yen, the euro changed hands around Y108.32, more than 1% lower on the day. The dollar bought Y83.22, little changed from Wednesday's U.S. close.

-By Andrew J. Johnson, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3092; [email protected]
--Javier David and Min Zeng contributed to this article.

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

hey everyone can I get a check as to what people are using for skew and rescues (seems some people might be using unorthodox skews)? I was wondering if doing the 1,1,2 was a good idea, or if anyone recommended a skew/rescue sequence that is "friendly" for beginners

as of now, I've only been using 1,1,2 for attack and 2 for rescues (trying to be very very nimble). I've heard that fti recommended the 1,1,1 progression for learning dance, but I've recently started using 1,1,2 to practice attack skew & pulling cannons out when momentum goes.

FP,

Play around and see what you are comfortable on....as u said 1,1,1 is advised and u get ur comfort zone built slowly...

V

Also important is the size of the scout/unit of trade, as it should be proportionate to your account size.

1,1,2 is about as vanilla as you can get, however rescue size is determined by total troops in play as it is exponential or at minimum a fib growth spiral for proper functionality.. i'd suggest you reread the early thread areas dealing with spirals.

If you want to reduce the aggressiveness of the spiral reduce unit size, but the math makeup of your spiral needs to be correct, as well as understanding the reason for it's design

Hi, yes I am in the process of re-reading skews to get a better picture. The attack skew is clear to be, but I have a hard time understanding the rescue skew. I am using the standard fib progression for attack (staying at 1,1,2 for now not because it fits the angle of the impulse, but more for safety as I am still in learning stages).

I always wind up my fib generated trades as momentum dies so I will usually only have 1 scout on the field at all times so as not to leave big guns on the field. As I understand it, the rescues must be geometric (in accordance with the WW table that fti provided us). The exact calculation of the rescue is still a bit hazy for me. It involves a base or something along those lines.

Your comment about proper scout size is important. I'm thinking when I go live (won't be for a very long time) that I will be using a 5k account with the standard 1:100 leverage. What would be the proper scout size for that (could you show math please so that in the future I can continue to change size as capital changes)?

Sometimes back, fellow TAF trader has come out with a the following calculation for beginner, which I find is a good gauge for scout size:

Account size x leverage x 1% = scout size

In your case of $5k, 1:100 leverage, scount size = 5000x100x1%=5000, or 0.05 standard lot.

For me, I still stick to this calculation for scout size.

When equity changes, do the downward sticky: meaning when your equity change from $5k to <$6k (or $8k, whatever), scout size remain at 0.05 stand lots. Scout size will increase to 0.06 (or 0.08 if $8k is used) only when equity >$6k (or >$8k).

thanks hcong, do you also know if there is a formula for max attack or rescue skew for a specific account size (obviously with a 5k account I would be very restricted)?

Scout size is easy, attack and rescue is more judgemental. It depends on a lot of things. Things like:

1. chart terrain
2. volatility
3. your stamina/form
4. your time left for trading
5. your trading time zone
6. your trading skill, ability to read the dance steps
7. the availability of foreign capital (previously gained profit)
8. your experience trading this style
9. your personality: how you perform under the influence of greed and fear (this is the most important, imho)

So I doubt there can be a fixed rule for all.

I can only say it is best to start on the conservative side, and stretch yourself a little more after a period of steady performance. Stop when performance deteriorates and reflect, and reduce (size and layers) if necessary. fti can do 7 or 8 layers of attack, I can only do 3, so be it. Mamood can achieve 50% a day, I can only do 1% a day, so be it.

Just my 2 pips, those who are more successful in trading this method may be laughing at me , so you may have to seek their advice.

laughing?

You know why single handicappers in golf never laughs at those playing to 24?
Because once upon a time every one used to play at ladies handicap.
I was one of them.

regards

Good Morning Friends!

Interesting topics like rescues.

Will expand on that a little later from my expereinces.
But have to do my "Kindergarden run" (as Dutrchangel might have called it) first.

And one thing for all beginners:



Yeah - MaMood has achieved 50% and more a day, BUT:

1. that 50% was related only to my 3000EUR experiment. Means this account size was only round about 5% of my trading cap, so performance was only 2.5%
2. But that was a very "frightful mutation" of fti's teachings and I'm not very proud of such results any longer. Proper trading and proper trading mindset is very different from that. If it would be possible I would remove that blotters and statements from this thread again.
3. MaMood was also able to lose 100% a day (in relation to that 3000 EUR accounts).
4. And to be very honest: It was part of my "MaMood Ego show".

I seriously hope, that I have come over of most of my scorpions now. The last years 8 Month "trading sabbatical" has done wonders on my mindset ...

So please forget about most of that account statements, or use id as a bad example of trading practise.

CU later again!

Niels

Thanks, hcong. What do you mean by layers?

Sorry I use this term too loosy.

Your 1,1,2 is 3 layers to me. (ie 1 scout + 2 attacks).

oh got it ok. The list you have provided is comprehensive and helpful, thanks. I notice that I don't focus much attention on the time zones as people on this thread give heads up on changes in terrain.

This worries me because I might begin to develop bad habit of not paying attention. From now on, I need pay more attention.

What have been your experiences during changes in time zones? Are there certain behaviors to look out for?

Thanks, I really appreciate your experience (I will search through thread for more info so as not to bug people)

I trade mostly Asia trading hours till 5-6pm (GMT+8), where it has less movement, typically. This means that I don't have opportunity to add too many layers, as compare to US session.