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Silent Service Method

  • #11,541
  • Jan 3, 2011 12:26pm Jan 3, 2011 12:26pm
This is one that is on my radar for the near future.
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  • #11,542
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:48pm Jan 3, 2011 9:48pm
According to reuters, the "little guy" is starting to slowly return to the stock market. In other words, we will be down in the major indices by the end of the year. :-)
  • #11,543
  • Jan 4, 2011 6:34am Jan 4, 2011 6:34am
Quoting clockwork71
According to reuters, the "little guy" is starting to slowly return to the stock market. In other words, we will be down in the major indices by the end of the year. :-)
middle of the year
  • #11,544
  • Jan 4, 2011 9:13am Jan 4, 2011 9:13am
Quoting clockwork71
This trade triggered before I was anticipating it to. I have a 200 pip stop on it, and if it goes my way, we could be looking at several handles. I normally wouldn't get involved with a trade right before New Year's, but this break of support seemed important enough.

Chris
Hi All,

Probably like many of you I missed the entry into this sell trade CW pointed out.

I've been waiting for a reason to enter short on the latest retracement and this chart illustrates my logic which supports CW's thesis that we may see this lower. It uses other forms of tech analysis however you may find them interesting given it complements the overall SS trade and could offer a relatively accurate entry opportunity.

Current 4hr chart has printed an ABC bottom formation off the strong UK production data this morning here London time. The 161.8% extension of this bottom pattern is around 1.4830 which coincides nicely with weekly R1 pivot level at 1.4832 and the 1.27% extension of the bearish butterfly reversal pattern than has also formed on this chart at 1.4840.

There is also resistance just above here with the 38.2% retracement of the most recent daily move down coming in at 1.4860 area.

Should price break this area and look to flush stops above the most recent high circa 1.4890 (and monthly pivot level) then there is further resistance above here at 1.4917 from the recent swing low and the 161.8% extension of the bearish butterfly sell signal at 1.4948.

Based on this information I am looking to enter shorts from 1.4830 level and higher with stops @ 1.4975. If price clears 1.4975 then there is little resistance until the base of the falling wedge that this move originally broke through circa 1.5110 so in my opinion there is little point leaving another 135 odd pips in the market by placing stops above there.

If it moves through my stops I will just wait for another sell signal to occur.

Chart is attached showing the basics of the formation. Fib and pivot levels have been removed to keep it more simple.

If I see a failure bar in the 1.4830-1.4860 region then this will be my entry point.

Hope you all had a great Christmas and NY!

Cheers,

4x.
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  • #11,545
  • Jan 4, 2011 10:39pm Jan 4, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi All,

Probably like many of you I missed the entry into this sell trade CW pointed out.

I've been waiting for a reason to enter short on the latest retracement and this chart illustrates my logic which supports CW's thesis that we may see this lower. It uses other forms of tech analysis however you may find them interesting given it complements the overall SS trade and could offer a relatively accurate entry opportunity.

Current 4hr chart has printed an ABC bottom formation off the strong UK production data this morning here London time. The...

uh.....yeah, what he said. lol
  • #11,546
  • Jan 4, 2011 10:41pm Jan 4, 2011 10:41pm
NFP week, could make the week "odd". However, for what it's worth - the NYSE had 392 Bearish Outside Bars today, and the NASDAQ had 230. Contrast that with just 14 on the NYSE, and it might show poor sentiment in the marketplace. Which of course, can effect various "risk currencies".
  • #11,547
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:20am Jan 5, 2011 10:20am
Chris,

Any thoughts on silver?

I'm looking at a "pin-ish" bar on the 4H forming, if it closes a little higher it could be above the daily TL drawn from the low on Aug 24th. Making it a possible buy.

Alternately, if it closes below the TL we have a break-retest scenario.
  • #11,548
  • Jan 5, 2011 1:48pm Jan 5, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting Low
Chris,

Any thoughts on silver?

I'm looking at a "pin-ish" bar on the 4H forming, if it closes a little higher it could be above the daily TL drawn from the low on Aug 24th. Making it a possible buy.

Alternately, if it closes below the TL we have a break-retest scenario.

Here is a chart w/ my thoughts....

I would prefer a long, but not overly excited because the latest high wasn't exactly convincing.
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  • #11,549
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:38pm Jan 5, 2011 4:38pm
Buying more and more. I don't think I could ever own enough.
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  • #11,550
  • Jan 5, 2011 8:31pm Jan 5, 2011 8:31pm
Hey CW, just want to pick your brain, why are you bearish GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP? These pairs typically move in opposite directions??
  • #11,551
  • Jan 6, 2011 8:00am Jan 6, 2011 8:00am
Quoting clockwork71
Buying more and more. I don't think I could ever own enough.

Stocks are something I have just not put the time into to learn but why do you think the 5 dollar mark will bring in the big boys.
  • #11,552
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:47am Jan 6, 2011 9:47am
Quoting kodflakes
Stocks are something I have just not put the time into to learn but why do you think the 5 dollar mark will bring in the big boys.

Because most of them have a self-imposed limit on how lowly priced a stock can be, $5 and $10 are common marks.
  • #11,553
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:48am Jan 6, 2011 9:48am
Quoting drebin
Hey CW, just want to pick your brain, why are you bearish GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP? These pairs typically move in opposite directions??

Because of the technical set ups. It has little to do with fundamentals at the moment, and besides - they can and will move in either direction. I also think it has to do with the British owning so much European debt as well. Europe as a whole is a bad place to be this year in my opinion.
  • #11,554
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:54am Jan 6, 2011 9:54am
EUR/USD
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  • #11,555
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:18pm Jan 6, 2011 12:18pm
Chris, thank you for all you do here and all you have to share. If you haven't noticed, I am a common lurker through out the day, but I don't post much.

I sold just over $4,000 in my mutual funds and about 800 shares of C. I really think this is a good long term buy. Just my own analysis after you put me on notice with your charts. I plan to hold this for many years, and will only scale out if the stock climbs in value.

Win or lose, it doesn't matter. In the end, we are just trying to put the odds in our favor. That means we will have to lose to make money in the long run. We have to lose trades, we have to lose on investments, in order to make money long term.

Hope C takes off, but if not, I still think it is a good call.
  • #11,556
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:27pm Jan 6, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Chris, thank you for all you do here and all you have to share....
My analysis of C is based on the idea of holding for at least 5 years, and to be honest - could be as long as 20. The US isn't going to let them fall, and is actually in the process of selling it's holding now. I believe the completion of this is to be in the next couple of months.

Citi is the counter party to far too many trades around the world for the powers that be to let it fail - at any costs.

I think that in 10 years we will look back and say - "Jesus that was a no-brainer". Kind of how I look at it when it was $1 a share, and I was too stupid to buy it!

I should also add that it will get a nice intial pop, then probably be a nice steady grind up....
  • #11,557
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:51pm Jan 6, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting clockwork71
My analysis of C is based on the idea of holding for at least 5 years, and to be honest - could be as long as 20. The US isn't going to let them fall, and is actually in the process of selling it's holding now. I believe the completion of this is to be in the next couple of months.

Citi is the counter party to far too many trades around the world for the powers that be to let it fail - at any costs.

I think that in 10 years we will look back and say - "Jesus that was a no-brainer". Kind of how I look at it when it was $1 a share, and I was...
Yes, I can see that. I might buy an additional 1,000 shares in the next few weeks. I look at it as a long term buy, so much so I told my mom that at 59 and retiring soon, I couldn't recommend it for her.

As you said, it may take 5 or even 20 years to really move back to where it was, but that kind of return is hard to duplicate.
  • #11,558
  • Jan 6, 2011 2:34pm Jan 6, 2011 2:34pm
GBP/CHF


1.50, 38.2% retrace, (50% from the absolute latest drop) and a pinbar. If this holds, could be a good signal. I know that NFP is tomorrow, but this could be a bit of foreshadowing, as the market is getting too bullish all the sudden. (Estimates have been raised for NFP in last 24 hours.)

Anyway, here's the chart:
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  • #11,559
  • Jan 6, 2011 7:31pm Jan 6, 2011 7:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
Because of the technical set ups. It has little to do with fundamentals at the moment, and besides - they can and will move in either direction. I also think it has to do with the British owning so much European debt as well. Europe as a whole is a bad place to be this year in my opinion.
thanks for the thoughts on this one. Big day tomorrow. I am excited to see what posotions will be available next week.
  • #11,560
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:50am Jan 7, 2011 12:50am
Quoting drebin
thanks for the thoughts on this one. Big day tomorrow. I am excited to see what posotions will be available next week.

For what it's worth - every time over the last few years I thought a NFP was going to be a huge event - it wasn't. I gave up. LOL

It's only really truly going to matter when they can produce a +300,000 number in my opinion.

Chris
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