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Attachments: Trend Following - A Complete Guide
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Trend Following - A Complete Guide

  • #141
  • Jan 4, 2011 5:18am Jan 4, 2011 5:18am
EURJPY looks primed for a bounce... It is coming up to a confluence of levels on the 4hour chart (trend line, resistance and 61.8 fib level. Things could get interesting.
  • #142
  • Jan 4, 2011 8:28am Jan 4, 2011 8:28am
You have a fantastic thread here! Thank you Micardo! I'm in!

This is exactly the way I would like to go live soon!

Actually, I made about 1000 pips on demo following different trades in 3 first weeks of December but then lost about 300 during the last week.

It wasn't a clever idea to trade during holidays when liquidity was low and trends not respected. I read your post too late:-/

I take it as a good lesson and keep learning :-)
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #143
  • Edited 10:30am Jan 4, 2011 9:38am | Edited 10:30am
Found my reasoning
  • #144
  • Jan 4, 2011 10:21am Jan 4, 2011 10:21am
Quoting jag1966
Hi Quant, to add the image, "edit" your post then scroll down to "manage attachments" browse for the image on your computer and add / upload it
TNX.
  • #145
  • Jan 4, 2011 10:41am Jan 4, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Micardo
EURJPY looks primed for a bounce... It is coming up to a confluence of levels on the 4hour chart (trend line, resistance and 61.8 fib level. Things could get interesting.

Hi Micardo

I think i am a bit too late for an entry into the EJ (or i could put the SL - 80 pips behind the candle)

Is my chart ok ?

Confluence:
1. Trendline
2. Round Number
3. 61.8 fib
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_4.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #146
  • Jan 4, 2011 11:29am Jan 4, 2011 11:29am
Which currencies do you monitor ?
  • #147
  • Jan 4, 2011 11:29am Jan 4, 2011 11:29am


Quoting Micardo
EURJPY looks primed for a bounce... It is coming up to a confluence of levels on the 4hour chart (trend line, resistance and 61.8 fib level. Things could get interesting.
Always Learning
  • #148
  • Jan 4, 2011 1:41pm Jan 4, 2011 1:41pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf h4.gif Size: 32 KB


Looking at a setup that I think was similar to the EURJPY of this morning. Seems to be bouncing off TL / downward sloping channel , 61.8 retrace ect. Stoch's. are going into over bought ( I dont put much weight on these , just a little extra conformation) Please critique this and let me know if I am on the right track.

Take Care
Always Learning
  • #149
  • Jan 4, 2011 3:44pm Jan 4, 2011 3:44pm
This is great stuff! Your explanations of support/resistance and how to properly use Fibonacci lines have helped me tremendously.
  • #150
  • Jan 4, 2011 4:21pm Jan 4, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting OldQuant
Hello, all. As in the title, this is my first post on FF.
Welcome!
  • #151
  • Jan 4, 2011 5:01pm Jan 4, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting JayTrader
Attachment

Looking at a setup that I think was similar to the EURJPY of this morning. Seems to be bouncing off TL / downward sloping channel , 61.8 retrace ect. Stoch's. are going into over bought ( I dont put much weight on these , just a little extra conformation) Please critique this and let me know if I am on the right track.

Take Care
I'm in this trade since this morning. So far hasn't moved significantly. Took bounce off the TL with stochs starting to exit overbought.
  • #152
  • Jan 4, 2011 5:11pm Jan 4, 2011 5:11pm
I'm also in USDJPY on a bounce from upper TL. Was in profit as you can see and it has retraced.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyjan42011.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #153
  • Jan 4, 2011 8:21pm Jan 4, 2011 8:21pm
Ouch! I got bitten on turnaround Tuesday. Was it a bank holiday; or was I barking up the wrong tree? http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #154
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:21am Jan 5, 2011 7:21am
Quoting TheMonk
Hi Micardo

I think i am a bit too late for an entry into the EJ (or i could put the SL - 80 pips behind the candle)

Is my chart ok ?

Confluence:
1. Trendline
2. Round Number
3. 61.8 fib
Hi Monk,

Yes that is pretty much bang on what I had! If you can keep picking these levels you will be well on your way :-)

Micardo
  • #155
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:23am Jan 5, 2011 7:23am
Quoting JayTrader
Attachment

Looking at a setup that I think was similar to the EURJPY of this morning. Seems to be bouncing off TL / downward sloping channel , 61.8 retrace ect. Stoch's. are going into over bought ( I dont put much weight on these , just a little extra conformation) Please critique this and let me know if I am on the right track.

Take Care
Hi JayTrader,

Yup looks good to me. I have that exact same level on my chart although it just got absolutely destroyed. I was waiting for the confirmation which didn't come. Good thing too.

Well done keep going!

Micardo
  • #156
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:29am Jan 5, 2011 7:29am
Quoting Winston Reed
I'm also in USDJPY on a bounce from upper TL. Was in profit as you can see and it has retraced.
Hi Winston,

Yet another nice setup. However I was a little hesitant about shorting this pair and hence was waiting for complete confirmation before entering.

The reason I was hesitant is fundamentally I don't believe the Yen deserves to be as strong and what with the BOJ intervening last year, this pair needs to give me really good reason to short.

My 2 cents.

Micardo
  • #157
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:33am Jan 5, 2011 7:33am
Quoting jerrycollie
Ouch! I got bitten on turnaround Tuesday. Was it a bank holiday; or was I barking up the wrong tree? http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
It was a bank holiday but I don't think you were barking up the wrong tree although I don't know what your setup was that you are referring to.

Losses are part of the game and can be quite illogical. I have been stopped out before for no good reason, other than normal volatility.

As long as our system has an edge which it does in the long run you will make money. It is just a question of being able to trade a large enouh sample size to allow your edge to play out. This means keep your leverage low and positions small.
  • #158
  • Jan 5, 2011 8:35am Jan 5, 2011 8:35am
Hi Micardo. Interesting thread and I'm going to read it. Please excuse this correction which I noticed. Couldn't help it...

Quoting TheMonk
Hi Micardo

I think i am a bit too late for an entry into the EJ (or i could put the SL - 80 pips behind the candle)

Is my chart ok ?

Confluence:
1. Trendline
2. Round Number
3. 61.8 fib
No it isn't. The fib should have been drawn from the swing high. Therefore, it's not a 61.8 level.
Gone to a better place
  • #159
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:13am Jan 5, 2011 9:13am
Quoting smikester
Hi Micardo. Interesting thread and I'm going to read it. Please excuse this correction which I noticed. Couldn't help it...



No it isn't. The fib should have been drawn from the swing high. Therefore, it's not a 61.8 level.
Fibonacci is very subjective. Yes you can say that it is by 20 pips but in the grand scheme of things it is in the right area.

Remember that the forex market does not go through a centralised exchanged and therefor there is no one price. For that reason you really can't view levels as to the pip because different feeds will give you slightly different prices.

For me the most important thing is the price action, so I know that if I get price action in an "area" of the chart that holds some weight I am going to enter. It doesn't matter to me whether it is to the pip with regards to the level as long as it is close enough to let me know that the markets are also paying attention to it.

But ok if you are being picky you can move it up 20 or so pips to enrue it is from the real swing high. :-)
  • #160
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:45am Jan 5, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Micardo
Fibonacci is very subjective. Yes you can say that it is by 20 pips but in the grand scheme of things it is in the right area.

Remember that the forex market does not go through a centralised exchanged and therefor there is no one price. For that reason you really can't view levels as to the pip because different feeds will give you slightly different prices.

For me the most important thing is the price action, so I know that if I get price action in an "area" of the chart that holds some weight I am going to enter. It doesn't matter to me whether...

It has nothing to do with different price feeds. It's just plain wrong. Drawing fibs to fit a chart retracement is just barmy. I don't use fibs much, but there was no fib confluence there. Maybe a 50% rejection. 50% is not a fib level. So what?
Gone to a better place
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