market and life, is it so different?

Hello All,

dont really have much to contribute to this forum such as systems, new indis etc etc because i see no need for such things as market is random. (sorry if this offends anyone here on this forum, if you make money, you win, system lose, and thats the bottom line, different road, same destination)

so here go, its more of a thought process of mine rather than anything else, it is very conceptual and is not directly pertinent to the market, so if you have 5 minutes, read on, if you dont, ^.^ thanks for reading so far.

i want ask anyone who will read this thread and think about this question:
do you think you can control the market?

well, there is no wrong answer but the result of your forex trading will end up differently depend on your response.

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if we become a pro-amateur in the market, we have dodged these banks/pro marketeers, but if we become a pro-amateur in life, we will be able to these see-able sharks a mile away. (oh, beautiful women divorcing old rich man comes to mind)

please dont let money make you a vessel in which it goes through, plug that leaking drain and remember to give back. you win money today, but someone lost. we think its the bank, banks dont care about 200 dollars, but someone who are using their life's savings to try to save their old home on this casino we called the market does.

well, i can go on and on about this, we all know market is fractual (remove the price and time, you cant tell a weekly from a daily candle). dont you think society is structured the same way? please take your free time and think about it.

(a simple example i thought many can relate to. the work ladder(-.- those 4 dreadful word, but is language fractal too??) )

take a simple pharmapheutical corporate company for example. technicians work for senior scientist, senior scientists work for section chief, section chiefs work for branch chief, branch chiefs work for vice president, vice presidents work for department head, department heads work for ceo, ceo work for the board, the board work the company, the company work for the economy of the country, the economy of a country work for the economy of the world(earth), earth revolves around the sun, the sun revolves around the center of the galaxy, the galaxy revolves around the center of the universe, the universe revolves around ->????? im inclined to say the smallest matter in side the universe, but i digress from the main example. im sorry, but my measely human brain can not comprehend anything new than to find analogies around things we already know or established as fact (or is it a fact??)

i was indicating that i inclined to say the universe work for the smallest materialistic matter inside the universe much like a company works for the country's economy, but its survival depends on the lower mass, the working bees so to speak, in essence, it works for the lower masses, the structure is both fractual and circular in nature, much like light is both a particle and a wave. doesnt the market have trending and cycle characteristics too, hmmmm....

i am sorry if the above two paragraph confused you, i really writing this out for myself too. ^.^ sorry, we are sinful to born with. (i really dont want to go into that, as i can write anther two pages about it with tangents after tangents, someone will find my ip and shoot me just to shut me up ^.^ but if you are interested, pm me, and i will be happy to share my views and see what other great minds out there thinks as well, and learn much more than me as one person can possibly perceive)
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Below is another provoking "theory" i had. now i am no expert in market inter-relationship, i could be 100% dead F'ing wrong, i only tried to reflect onto the market with how my individual bank account is structured and this came to mind, please bare with me. ^.^ this one is more comically, i promise.



here is my simple one two punch theory to the current world economy in currency terms. (sorry if this is completely wrong as i have no extensive knowledge regarding the major factors that control the economy, but more or less my logic) also, i really need to get some rest, there are more birds on the arrow, either i forgot about them or just cant see it. my beaker is only 1.4L most things come and goes.

world currency is circular in nature. everything relates to one another. china yen = cheaper than perceived value, japanese yen = cheaper than perceived value. eur two years ago = perceived value. usd 2 years ago = perceived value. aussie dollar currently = perceived value (i may be wrong with these, so please correct me if im wrong, so i can logically correct myself)

since china and japan is not gonna raise their currency in value, in order for Benanke to print free money and the most of the world seeing it the same, it has to knock down euro to be cheaper than perceived value. sorry aussie, you are next, but the European croissant is enough for dessert for now.

most sees the news of how badly greece, ireland is in debt, but who lend the money to these countries in the first place??? much like a creditcard we carry in our wallet, we currently have 5k in debt on it, but our creditcard company only ask for 20 bucks in monthly payments plus interest, but imagine if the credit card company one day knocking on your door and asked for all the five K back, can we pay for it all in one lump sum, we cant.

the united states as a country cant do this directly (asking for the lump sum) but banks reside in teh united states can (fractual in nature compared to a credit card company and people). we may perceive a few banks failing as a bad thing, but the benefit to the country in the long term is so great as it gives them a reason to sh*t on the euro.

another bird benanke have on his golden arrow will be fear, its fear mixed with shorting that caused euro's 2 year back slide( cant be so easily done with money alone, money is only the small snowballl to get it rolling).

since china, japan, eur is now all cheaper in value than its worth, cant united states print out money but still retain its actually worth relatively to the world??

now what does benanke do with these so called free money. play it in the stock market, oh, but being a smartee pants that he is, he flash crashed the market first to know exactly his probability of win/lose (also how much he needs to keep the market a float, only 7 billion at once if able to bring DOW to its knees, we spent that much in a day on the Iraq war more or less).

so crash the economy had two benefit for him in the long run. 1: reason to sh*t on Europe through debt collection. 2: create fear in the herd to have a reason for government intervention in the stock market. (if we can make millions in a decade starting from 100k, how much money do you think the government have) edit: actually i see three so far: 3 being buying these so called "failing" banks' stock at a HUGE discount and have zero chance of losing money(giving the bank something as reason to collect their debts here and now).

oh but the fun for benanke doesnt stop there, we earned those 100k hard working for someone else, his playing money is...... what the word im looking for here, aha. FREE(relative to the world).

oh wait wait wait, wait for it, what is this, another bird i can put on my golden arrow. many think inflation is bad, but is it so bad??? its bad for those who have cash and no debt, but im sorry, most people have morgages and car payments and credit debt. by keeping the interest down, they make sure most can pay back the debt with less effort. but since world is fractual in nature, does the usa have debt as well, on hell yes we do. why dont we sh*t on china too by paying back all our debt that we made in the market with our free money and inflate the crap out of our money and pay them back all the trillions in debt relatively free.

oh wait, whats the next bird that i see on the horizon, oh, isnt this nice, world market is related. oh garsh darn, i made trillions, i wonder who lost all those money, ehhh who cares, lets pay all our debt back, boost our economy and feed the masses(we need enough happy rats on wheels to power our lightbulbs), at the same time, pay back our debt with free money.

oh wait, what is this i have in my other hand, is this a F'ing bazooka? so i have 12 birds on one arrow and a F'ing bazooka in the other. oh, look at those other hunters with their small bb guns, all they can ever do is feed on the guts of my birds when im done cleaning them.

i had fun writing this story. if its completely wrong, feel free to read it as a comic relief and all i ask for is some good laughs across the globe. and i apologize if this offend anyone's country. i think of myself not as chinese or american, but earthling. ^.^ we all need to be a bigger person


edit: before i go to sleep, i want to add something, when those aliens do come to earth and is revealed to the public, i will consider myself an universian, until then, earthling is what i perceive myself as. oh gosh, i am really tempted to write out my theories as to why alien exists. maybe another time if some people are interested in my crazy theories/stories.

but most importantly, tell me if i sound crazy?? my view changed on life just about a month ago, since then, crazy theories pop into my head.



thank you all for taking your precious time (which is the only limited thing for us, we can only live ~25000 days on this planet, time is money, we all heard it, but how many truly knows or follows this quote). and i deeply thank you for using something that is so precious to reply for someone whom you dont even know and have nothing to give back but his good wishes for you.

thank you

Markets are not random. An Objects worth is not random. A Snickers bar is not $1.25 at 711 because it just randomly appeared on the sticker.

hmmm. interesting. but do you think money or value is one and the same?
which one do you think is static or and which one is perceived?

yes, the dollar amount on the sneaker bar is 1.25 as hard money, but its value is constantly changing. it may take awhile for that can of coke to change from 10 cent a can to 25 cent a can, but that is because the world is not that integrated yet. or you can substitute 1.25 for a sneakers bar at 711, how much was that sneakers bar 5 years ago??

isnt that what we are trying to do in the market. you may think its the dollar amount that end up in your account at end of the day that matters. but we are really trying to do in the market is to make the difference in perceived value.

for example, you trade in the united states with USD as your basic currency, you made 200 dollars in usd today. do you think the value of that 200 dollars is static or is it constantly changing relative to the japanese yen, the aussie dollar, the british pound??

take the famous Zimbabwe debacle for example, before the massive inflation, you made a billionaire dollars in Zimbabwe but decide to quit and become the warren buffet of Zimbabwe. year after year you realize that gallon of milk is raising in value. did your bank account dollar amount change o.O

oh, another thing to think about for you, do you think that big table yo have your computer on is static. do you think earth is static? there are random electrons constantly revolving around the nucleus, im pretty sure you took chem 101. now apply the same logic to the 1.25 sticker,

do you think out of all the workers at the sneakers factory, you can know for sure who putted that sticker on the sneaker? (with out insider information o.O oh, where have we heard that term before)

can you vouch with your life that Joe put that 1.25 stick on that sneaker bar you just bought instead of Jane?

or i can put it another way, is the 1.25 sticker always at the same place, can you vouch on your life that the sticker is 2.000000 cm to the inifinity decimal place when looking at it from the right to the left.

thank you for your reply, appreciate your insight, always a pleasure to use my brain, i understand value versus $ much better now.

if you think the market is not random, count the number of up bars versus downbars for the history of the forex market, i think you will be enlightened afterwards.

yes, it may be 9 red candles in a row on the hourly charts, if you took the above task and counted the up/down candles, what does that tell you about the shift in the equilibrium, cant you use that to your advantage?

another thing for you to think about, if only a select few make money in the market, and its red after red, most people are selling, what does that tell you your action should be?

anyway, thank you for using your priceless time and reply. although a bit short -.-

edit: on i just realize that you used bottom line for your topic, but isn't my bottomline lower than yours? ^.^ sorry, that was meant to be joke
oh, i just realized that i may have made a mistake replying to your post and wasted my time. you never read past the second sentence. -.- oh, people, thinking they are all so much better than the rat they just killed with a shovel,

but dont you think most people can be seen as rats on wheels powering the light bulb we call society.

i wrote this thread with the intention of opening people's eyes, even if it can reach one of you, then it is enough for me.

anyways, somebody gotta be the working bees ^.^

i also believe

success = iq * learning curve * effort * wisdom. (more or less)

so lets make some analogies here so you that you may be able to understand.

think about your iq as your computers harddrive, i have a 258 mb hard drive you have 1 trillionbyte. you are able to store SOOO much more information than me.

think about your learning curve as your cpu, ok, this time i lucked out, we are the same. we process information more or less the same speed.

oh what this, effort? this might be little harder to understand. how long can you leave this computer on to process the information that we are constantly receiving?

the forth component of this computer so to speak is the software, do you have a software thats is full of holes and crash like windows or is your software mac based and runs most time without fail? and how good is this software in analyzing data, does it only go from 0 to positive infinity or does it go from negative infinity to positive infinity?

well, this was fun. hope you post more questions, but please at least read the entire post first before posting? i see you are a member already and dont need to post stuff to gain member status. what was your reason for posting, i am really curious to know

oh and please post more questions, jfxnc is able to post question without reading pass the second paragraph, im sure most of you here can post another question after reading through the entire post.

I don't know what you intention of your posts is. You write about so many things in one post, I have no idea what it all should boil down to.
I just pick some things out I am not agreeing with:

1. Markets are definitely not random. Take a randomly generated chart and a chart generated by markets. Do a lot of statistical analyses and you will find that there is definitely a big difference between the two.

2. I always thought the debt countries take out also has to be paid off by taxes. So you are wrong with the 20 bucks monthly payments per person. In effect we, through our taxes are always paying off a country's debt. Countries are not exempt from paying interest.

3. I don't know why you think USA is the center of the universe. They are a part of the world, but they are losing its status as THE superpower by the minute. Also no idea why you think one man should be so happy about the whole world being stuck. The USA itself also relies on a working economy, they are not above that.

4. Again you have a very american view. "Everybody has mortages, car payments and credit cards." Look to europe, which has a larger population than the USA. Most do not consume like americans do and much less do have debt.

5. How could the USA pay off its own debt if it doesn't have money paying back the debt. If it prints more money, inflation kicks in, the dollar will get worthless, and the USA would have to pay more "dollars" back. I don't know where you wanna get free money from. Money still has to be earned by the economy. Maybe a good economics books would make you see a little bit more the structures of how an economy works.

6. Success is definitely not linked to IQ. Look at most politicians, very successful, but probably not much in their brain.

Your point of view is very simplistic, well and there are a lot of other points I probably also don't agree with.

ahh, thank you very much custo for reading the post. these are just my thoughts and i appreciate it soo much that you have taken your time to reply with such profound question.

i believe my perception is not wrong, and your perception is not wrong either.

people believe what they want to believe.

To me, market is random and not random, i dont know how to put it. can you agree that 4 15 minute candle added together equals that hourly candle most trader love so much about.

statistically, if you count the up/down candles for as long as the market's been around (not counting dojis), it actually very close to 50/50.

i have not performed this test personally as i trust the person who wrote the code. very simple really, rec count: if close>open, then count[1] +1 etc etc.

if you believe this as i do, then when three candle all closed red in a wrong, statistically speaking, thats .5^3 chance of happening, if market must come back to the mean, what does that say about the probability that the next candle could be green? (you dont have to believe me, and i certainly am not saying you are wrong for thinking the market is not random)

in regard to the how the economy work in relation to each other, i certainly am not stating that united states is the center of the world, as the center is relative. and if you read what i said before the united stating sh*tting on everyone, i think i said something along this line "market interrelationship currency wise".

i think i may have offended you if your country was used as an example for being shitted on. i still hold my chinese passport, but i live in the united states for half my life. but i try not to think myself as chinese or american, but earthling (but thats just me).

and thank you for the suggestion about the book, i definitely going to take some classes in the universities in my spare time as i can't comphrend the loops within loops that the market is.

i believe learning is a ever lasting thing one should be doing, but again, thats just me. this thread can mean everything to your trading career, or it can just be a crazy person talking to himself.

oh, i almost forgot.

you think its not linked to IQ?? sorry if this offends you(as i illustrate this for educational purposes only and by no meaning think i am better than a person with a genetic disease). do you think you have the same iq as a down syndrome child, do you think that down syndrome child can ever become a politician.

to me, again, this is my personal view. i said i see success more or less as

success = iq * learning curve * effort * wisdom.

and i thank you for pointing that out, i guess on that part, our perception is the same for this point. did Eistain prove that light can indeed be bent around a black hole on a whime? can he see it or touch the black hole? or did he theorize first before approaching this seemingly impossible task perceived by many.

i guess using associative property of multiplication (arent we all glad we paid attention in algebra 101?) for the politician example, it should be more like

success = wisdom*effort* learning curve * iq.

they are very wise in using the tools at their disposable, whether it be their big boobies (Palin comes to mind), or mellowness (Bush)

effort, they spent many sleeplessness nights working on their campaign so that they may get into office.

learning curve: if chinese government intervened to save the Hong Kong stock market, why not do the same with ours??

iq: ?????? does it really matter unless i dont have too much of a gap from the average.

well, i am done posting now, this is interesting.

and thank you custos for your questions and the insights into your own perception of the market.

and very big thank you for suggesting the book to me

but most importantly for taking your time to write out a reply.

edit: for illustrative purpose, i decide its best if i post something all can relate to on the forum. i posted these on the millipede thread by pipEasy, which i think its a must read for pro and noobs.

edit: @Custo, dont be so angry with politicians for what you think is stupidity to its maximum, as you put it, their iq is not very high (they cant hold more information they receive more than a couple of days before being washed out by the new information). also, their way of thinking (wisdom) is different from many. i will be running an experiement on rats to see if there is a genetic factor for this. are some people meant to be bosses??? (do you we have the queen bee gene too?) can this be changed through nurtur?? (the class you are born in) or is it innate??? probablity both, but to what degree is the ever daunting question......

You are being very philosophical wangyue22 in your posts But thanks for sharing with us your views and thoughts anyway.

I will not try to impose my opinion on you of course, however, I have to counter some of your views with mine anyway since that's what I suppose to believe in based on life and market experience.

The markets are not random. If the markets are random, then a lot of events in our universe would have been random as well. History doesn't tell us so.

In a sense, markets might seem random on many time frames, however, in fact, they are not. Not because we might perceive or see the markets as random, that they are really truly random.

Have you ever seen a simulation of a nuclear fission? It's usually called a chain reaction because once the reaction starts, neutrons push out and hit other atoms producing more neutrons hitting more atoms, etc...

If you saw a simulation of a nuclear fission you will think that it's a totally random thing that can never be predicted and doesn't have any order whatsoever. Reality is far different. The nuclear fission IS NOT RANDOM. It's just too complex for our minds to model and understand that we perceive it to be random at first.

Since you mentioned Chem 101....You must have studied that atoms consist of a nucleus filled with protons and neutrons while electrons revolve around the nucleus. You must have also studied the the first level contains 2 electrons, the second 8 etc...Do you know that it's the exact location of an electron can't be determined precisely at any point in time? That's because electrons do not revolve around the nucleus in an normal elliptical shape. The actually form what is called electron clouds.

In that sense, the movement of electrons might seem to be random. Not only the movement, the location of any electron at a given point in time might seem to be random as well. However, it's not the case, because there are always RULES followed.

Weather is not random as well, it's too complex for us to model and predict with 100% certainty. Traffic is not random as well, again it's too complex to model and predict, so are the markets. The markets are too complex and big to model and to predict.

The number of green and red candles on a chart is not an indication of randomness. The inability to predict with more than 33.33% certainty the direction of the next tick or candle is the definition of a random market. It's 33.33% because the next tick can be up, down or the same, so we have 3 possible outcomes.

Now, the market will seem random at some stages where your ability to predict the next tick or candle will never be more than 33.33%, however, in other stages, you will be able to enhance this percentage because of the general mood of the market and the market participants. That's when uptrends and downtrends unfold and are in action.

EDIT: Oh ya, and you don't need to predict the market in order to make money over the long term by the way. If you have ever studied and played blackjack you will know that you really need not know what's the next card to beat the house and walk away profitable.


Regards,

Nader

^.^ thank you narafa for your long reply. yes, these are just my thoughts and the real point of this thread is to fish in the herds and some of the few wise one (i think you are one, just my perspective)

to me it is very interesting to see how a successful person thinks and a working bee thinks. i talked to my boss's boss about my views and she thinks quiet the oppossite to the masses about many things.

yes, i know what nucleur fission and electron clouds are.

first, let me just say that i view the world as both fractual and circular in nature. similar to how light is defined on our terms as both particle and wave. but i do think eventually it can be defined as having one property, but that will take time and effort.

nucleur fission to me is fractual, one hitting one another escaleting the effect. just like how a break out in 5 minute could lead to a break out on 10 minute to hourly to daily etc etc. but i think the way in which it goes about doing this is random and the future outcome can never be determined precisely.

dont take me the wrong way but isnt the concept of electron cloud a type of randomness?? i apologize if this rhetorical question sounds rude as it is not meant to be.

off course i agree with you that if i put my hand on a hot stove top i will be hurt. much like these rules of 2 electron in the first orbital 8 in second etc etc. that is determined, that is just how we are made. but to what extent do i get burnt or where or how is random. i dont know if that makes sense.

however, i realize these rules so to speak, but some rules can be bent, much like the radioactive isotopes, i want to become that radioactive isotope, but i cant do it alone and really appreciate your thought provoking input.

^.^ love your edit......... thats exactly how i make my money in the market. i guess great minds think alike. shhh, dont tell the others, let them figure it out by themselves, and guess how my boss's boss win money in the casino?

again, thank you very much for your reply. see you on top of the money pyramid, you perceived the world one way, i perceive it another. different route, same destination. it is not whats inside the brain thats most important, the most important is how you use what you are given.

and please, i am not here to "convert" people to my thinking, which i think poster number 1 and 2 thought it was, but offer a new perspective on things that they may never thought of before.


Good luck to you narafa, and again, greatly appreciate your input.


edit: i do agree with you that our brain can not comphrend something, thus labeled it random. and a lot of people reverse think this: just because we can comphrend it, doesnt mean its random. but what if you reverse think the reversethinking: what IF it is just a coin toss??, the thing will just go in loops.

i know a guy spent ten years of his life and came up with a system to "forecast" the market. his win/lose ratio is about 99.97% with up to 70% of his targets hit. i too am guilty of trying to find the holy grail, but i believe sometimes that you have to step backwards in order to see the big picture. a higher probablity trade only gurantee your growth curve to be faster than the other, but since the time we have on this planet is limited, do you really want to spent ten year searching for this or get your hands in and dirty. an average pharmacist make more than a doctor purely due to non-residency requirements.

edit: what do you think the sumtotal probablity of you beating the house on the next card is?
even if its 80% to 20%, the total probability is 1. now stepppppp wayyyy back and think about this on a big picture type of way, is this so different from the market??

more or less as a continuation to the above post. narafa is very wise to have come to answer as to how to beat the house. i have attached a few chart patterns and my takes on it. i take it you are following pipEasy's thread. me too ^.^ he is a very wise man

there are alot of professional giving out information that are half truths to mislead the noobs and here are just few of the top of the ice berg.

ok, here are some simple candlestick pattern taken from:

http://www.candlestickgenius.com/can....html#highprob

some of them are gap manipulation used in the stock market to trap noob traders which leads to their high success rate. -.- dont even get me started on that, i suggest everyone interested in market manipulation to read "master the market"

but look whats included on the these high probability chart patterns.

did anyone ever even bother to tell you why these are high probability trades???

what are the chances of you having 3 red candles in a row, how about 3 green candles in a row. no need to back test -.- just use the gift that you are given from birth a bit.

if you have 3 red candles in a row(three black crows), the chances of market try to adjust it self back to equilibrium will be??? vice versa for the three white soldiers.

we all heard about the morning star and abandon baby to be used on bottoms and top, but did anyone ever bother to tell you why it is essential to use these patterns on top and bottoms???

and what exactly do we perceive as a top or a bottom??

if this is what we perceive as a top, there were more ????colored candle than red candles and if this is what we perceive as a bottom, there were more ??? colored candles than green candles. please use your greatest weapon and think about it. (should i use black and white candles instead for this explanation??? why is it so easy to switch this relativity between colors but not other things in life is one of the greatest mysteries i am trying to find out. )

okay..... *deep breath

i am gonna get a lot of crap for this.

but here goes:

there is no Correct Trend, it is our human perception that made us think its a trend. -.- and what is the fallacy that pros feed to the noobs o.O???

in order for us to be able to perceive it as an up trend, there must be more ????? colored candle than black candles??? and if there were more ??? colored candle than black candles, which do you think has the higher probablity of happening? continuation or reverse??

i know a lot of traders who are trend followers and made crap load of money, i am in essence the same way, but i define/perceive trend different than most.

oh, i can smell flaming posts a mile away (^.^) pun intended

thank you all, its much better to write these things out, i learn a bit more each time. thank you all very much

@wangyue22 I understand what your saying. And yes I read your entire post.
I just hear "The Markets Are Random" way to much. Yes there is a Handful of different ways to pull money from the markets, just like anything else. Is the real estate market random? No. Could I make money by randomly buying houses and trying to sell them for a profit? With the right MM of course. But to me that would be rather Insane.
Not trying to offend you.

confirmed, you are lost in your brain

lol...silverheat, he is not lost in his brain...He is just having a different philosophical view of the markets...


Regards,

Nader

hello all for taking your time to reply.

i think i may have confused many and i apologize as writing is not exactly my strongest pt (weakest actually in try to get my idea across)

a solid company with high growth potential going up is certainly not random. but HOW much up it grows or WHEN this company takes off IS.

we call also think of this on a bigger picture type of way.

let just say there are currently 1000 future microsoft companies in the market right now. they will all go up eventually if all variables in play stays the same (cash flow, p/e, revenue, earnings etc etc). but out of those 1000 company, no one can say for sure that THIS particular company is gonna take off here and now. hope that makes sense.


hope that makes sense and i am truly sorry if this further confused you. (working on my writing skills -.- as my writer future-wife wont help me T.T) she always says my posts are very disorganized.

@ jfxnc, nonetaken
everyone knows buying a house right now is a good idea, can these people bring this subconscious idea to the conscious level. can anyone say why the houses are consider cheap right now? (and not answer with "i just think/feel its cheap right now" )
the real state market has been down for the last 2-3 years, what does that say about it that it is eventually will try to revert back to its mean?

@ silverheat. is being lost in the brain soooo bad if you have the power to come out of it??? ever watch the movie inception, the visual aid in that movie might help you

@narafa, thank you for being polite and professional. best wishes to you in your trading career.

anyways, i am not here to convert/preach, but sharing my perspective on the market. one can agree or disagree, noone has the right or wrong perspective. I am just trying to see what other's perspective is and hopefully be able to have a heated discussion (in a professional way). and rebutt some arguments that are against my own perception. (that way i can learn more than my brain intended) always wise to see the other side the coin so to speak.

thank you all for spending the time to reply and am looking forward for many arguments against me.


side story:

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nature vs nurture, are some born to be leaders of the rat race and others followers???

This is very general and i dont have any hard statistical proof of this but should be rather interesting to expand upon.

My gf is left handed and I am right handed. She is an awesome writer and I accelerate in math learning. I always thought through my subconscious that if she put in as much effort in sharpening her edge as i do mine, she will be more successful than me. Now, today, I am able to bring this subconscious idea of mine to the conscious level.

Having the power to plant a seed of an idea is VERY powerful and can not be done with statistics alone (just facts).

I just had another interesting thought when i digged a bit deeper.

As of 2007, the top 1% of households (the upper class) owned 34.6% of all privately held wealth and the next 19% owned another 50% of wealth. It is thought that about 10% of people are left-handed. For making my math easier in my head, i simply think of the top 10 percent having ~50 % of the world's Wealth (cant seem to find a hard figure on just the top ten percent. do you think they dont want people to make this correlation???)

but i think the top 10 percent have much more than 50% (think about it, power corrupts)

also, lets just say that if the chance of a right handed or left handed person becoming someone powerful is 50:50. looking on to the presidents, of the recent presidents, Gerald Ford, Ronal Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and now Barrack Obama (McCain also a leftie) are all left handed. Monkey Bush is right handed (but being nurtured by a leftie). so if being able to arise to the power position is 50:50 for right handed vs left handed, then the chance of the current occurance is 1:100000. I don't think thats a coincidence. also i believe that were more older presidents that were born lefties but was made to use the right hand. (lefties were burnt at the stake at one point in history).

What are your thoughts on this leader/worker pyramid that we have since the day we are born?? (according to my thinking)

I am also going to be running an experiment with rats in the lab in the coming months on impulsivity (one press= 1gram pellets vs 5 press = 10 gram pellet). be interesting to see if this trait is expressed at birth through genetics and whats even more interesting is to see if through extinction of reward, followed by the reinstatement of bigger reward with 5presses. if the rat revert back to its innate nature right away.

"can anyone say why the houses are consider cheap right now?"
Well compared to prices in a better economy, yes there cheap. A good investment? In order to say that you would have to be betting on a economic turn around. But still you would be looking for the one that is under priced compared to others in the same market... The same as Trading.

YEP ^.^ agree with you one hundred percent. so let me ask you this question. Is Warren Buffet's style of making money in the market follow the same concept of a HFT robot (or vice versa if you think one style is superior, but is one really better than the other? )???

we look for high probability trades through market analysis (indicators, volume, close open etc etc, the indis if you will)
what does warren buffet look for when he goes in the market (pe, cash flow, growth potential, the fundies if you will) when the current perceived value of this company is cheap (in his perspective)

is that so different conceptually??

an one level deeper question worth pondering about, why does that tell you about the nature of materialistic things on this planet (market included)?

they are _______fill in the blank _______ in nature


edit: in regard to the real state situation, i can vouch with my life to a 99% accuracy that if you buy a cheap house in a lower middle class neighborhood in the USA, it will double in value in the next decade.

why or how do i know this? why did i say the lower middle class and not all houses?

as you can see, i dont trade using P/E, cash flow, or any of the fundis.

we call all agreed it is very hard to get a job right now correct? (or a person with a phd can go work in walmart, there are always jobs, but people perceive they are too good for these lower jobs)

what does that mean for the general masses, that creates more competition amongs the working class, they have to either:
a: work _______er for the same job
b: work the same for a _____er job

aahhh, but you see, this intense competition doesnt stop there, what is the idea or seed they are trying to plant inside your subconcious?

a big hint: what will you tell your children to do when they are growing up? and what will this idea you feed into your children do to the next generation in regard to competition (the same idea that is currently being implanted into your subconscious ) less or _____??

what does that mean for the next gen, some of these children will be weeded out down a class, some will have to work harder than their parents to stay in the same class.

do i have any in depth knowledge in real state or any fundis for that matter or did i just used my brain 2 levels down?

a member asked me what the hell is the point of this thread. i couldnt really answer him on a conscious level at that moment, but i guess the main purpose of this thread is to help some the masses to uproot some trees thats been growing since birth, its going to be painful, it is gonna hurt, but let me tell ya. you look at life a complete different way, whether it be cells, an animal, your job, the social latter, etc etc, i purposely wrote it from cellular to societal, and this going back to my previous point which is that materialistic things on this planet (market included) are _______fill in the blank _______ in nature.

i am really trying to help the public to pull the mask that was on our face from the day we are born. (but if you love being a working bee, hey, dont pull it off. but if you want to be upper tier, you have to be different. if everyone is as smart as Eisenstein, then Eisenstein is just an average Joe, because everything is ______ think of Eisenstein's famous quote).

do you also see now how our greatest weapon we possesses (our brain) can also be our greatest downfall?

i tell you a funny story (maybe not to you, but to me this is hilarious as hell), cognitive testing has been done in rat for almost a century if not longer.

in one experiement, they were trying to measure if certain rats would be willing to work more at once for a bigger reward (1 lever press for 1 gram food pellet vs 5 lever press for one 10 gram pellet). what does a professional gambler do to make money? milk the dealer dry when he knows the deck is hot (counting cards until its mostly face cards). is this so different than how most professional think about the market? please ponder about it.

do you think those scientists are working bees or the queen bee in society? (if you have the answer, then you will find the cruel humor of humanity, and these people are the smarter ones of the bunch, and they mindlessly worked for 100 years this way when the answer was screaming at them in the face.) we all think we are smarter than the average joe, but without your true eyes opened, we are still just inside that little box, working for 200k even though our potential is 20million.

you can either agree with my logic or disagree.

if you agree, all i ask is that you post that this has help you so i think its worth my while.
if you disagree, then I welcome your view with open arms, as I have much to learn about this world/society.

thank you all for your precious time

Well Warren Buffet always buys intrinsic value at a discount....He perceives and calculates a certain intrinsic value for the asset and see if it's selling below it, he buys as much as he can....


Regards,

Nader

There was once a time I thought there was more to indicators, I'm thankful that time has pasted.
I trade rather short term, I find the currency with the best value at that time and go from there.
If I where instead using "Indicators" do I think there would be a difference?
Yes. There being a blockade of large orders can't be compared to Trend Lines.

jfxnc, just to give you some perspective....I am Egyptian and I live and work in Egypt...I have been following the real-estate market in the US lately with an investors' eye....Do you know how the real-estate market in the US compares with the real-estate market in Egypt?

To your astonishment, Egypt is more expensive on many fronts....

How much does it cost to buy a 2,000 sq foot (That's approx. a 200 sq m) apartment at the heart of Orlando, Florida now? $100k-$125k...Getting the same in Cairo (The capital) will cost you around $150k...(And that's the low end)...

How much does it cost to buy a nice 2,500 sq foot 2 story house in New-Hampshire (Which is considered by far one of the best states apart from the weather conditions)...Probably something like $180k-$200k...Buying a 2 story house or villa in Egypt will cost you between $300k-$350k...!!!

I know there are other factors to consider for sure, like taxes, running costs, etc...However, just wanted to let you know that given global standards, either the real-estate in the US is undervalued or the real-estate in Egypt is overvalued, or both...


Regards,

Nader

Well here in NC 2500sqft Two story could run you anywhere from 100k to well above 400k depends on location. But that wasn't my point....With almost every house being undervalued are they really a good buy?

This question typically comes from a traders' mind... An investors' mind will ask it differently, if the value of the house selling for $150k now is more than that to me in the future or will be more to others in the future, then probably I should consider investing....


Regards,

Nader

oops, sorry narafa and jfxnc, i edited my previous post while you replied. thank you for using your precious time replying.

i tend to add to my post alot as i constantly think of tangents/relativity, i just write in a flow of what i think, and i know its very disorganized and really appreciate all who put up with my writing. i do shorten my thoughts down a level or two and try to reorganize some things so it flows better (one of the learnings i will be getting out of this thread ^.^). but i do wish to expand to these further levels of thinking in the future posts if needed.

really grateful for anyone to spend your precious time replying, i think you will find my edit post more insightful.

its five am here, i need to get some rest.

Good night all, will be checking back in the morning sometime.

to all who read this, dont dream about $$$$ too much . you lose your sense of self in the end (money/greed will eat you alive $$$$$$ <= see, didnt that get your attention?? joking, color is also a variable that caused you to look, not just greed )