Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi again FullPerson,

it took me some time now, till some more "accurate" description for fti's style of trading came to my mind. Not that much trend-following, but let's name it flow-trading. At least for my understanding the flow is much more in the here and now, than a possible trend.

Well - of course that are only words ....
Following your lady is the essence and that may include to dance against the longer term trends ....

CU,
MaMood

Hey what is going with EU for the past 35 minutes?
Really strong move.
Let's see how it behaves around 3400 ...

Edit: Do I have missed some POMO action today?

Just for info:

1618 GMT [Dow Jones] After spending much of the US session trending lower, EUR/USD advances by nearly a cent to a session peak at 1.3396. Dealers cite exaggerated price action in still thin markets, but also solid US manufacturing data that enhanced appetite for risk, which is helping to undermine the dollar. EUR/JPY also rose to 109.21, while the dollar trades at Y81.53.
([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Or this one?
However - hope those that are trading today have managed to enter that bus ...

1626 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD is now at 1.3388 after setting fresh session highs at 1.3396 on London Fix buying. Although UK markets are still on holiday, dealers say US-based IMM still adjusts its positions at 1600 GMT (11.00 am EST), giving the currency pair a boost. Increased risk appetite also seen hitting the dollar, but no fresh news is driving price action, said traders. EUR/JPY also rises to Y109.17, dollar trades near Y81.52. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

love this word....

I think this two quote can best describe the TAF method if not fully....

V

Hi indianguyinny24
... yet a third time (of experience-psychology)
Rgs

Thanks, here is my current MO:

I find that the 5min is essentially the only part that I vitally need. The daily 3k is useful to tell me where a price "may" change trends, which helps to decide whether to be aggressive in the future or not. However, it will not dictate that trading direction, the "flow" will do that based on how it responds to movements.

The way I see it, daily is helpful for an "idea" if the volatility in EU is going to increase due to UJ & GU action. However, the direction of trade is all based on the price's movement in the 5min. The direction is useful, but what's more important is the management of positions in the playing field. If you are wrong, the price will hint and hint. Then it will seriously slap you in the face. Whether you react to being slapped repeatedly depends on your ego. Sometimes it leaves a permanent bruise, not on your account but mentality.

As for position management, I find that it is possibly the most important part of the MO. On a normal day, I'm thinking just stay with the scout (pull scout out when flow changes, re-insert when pulse dictates). This helps a lot during ranges. When the scout in danger, rescue in direction of trend. If rescue unit 1 fails, go to unit 2. If unit 2 fails, and flow is not in my direction I'm clearly on the wrong side of trend. Close positions, flip. Usually by flipping positions, I'm usually back on the correct trend. When I see impulse (After hours of watching charts, I can say I have an idea of when an impulse about to happen (it appears obvious now when an impouls about to happen, the price flattens out for a while begging to burst up). The bar usually tries to break out of a sideways move (the longer it is sideways, the stronger it usually is). The the bar will jump up and down a lot (active), then finally it will jump high. The jump will retrace (allowing buyers to get in) and then it will go full steam ahead. It will then make a small retrace bar and continue up, each jump getting progressively smaller.

I am still running 1,1,2 and already I am making steady profits on demo (now to beware of ego).

When I am totally wrong and 1,1,2 are stuck for dead, I liquidate 1,1,2 and do a reverse on next level as opportunity presents itself (3,5,8 depending on volatility or until I regain my capital or if correction is acting lazy). After that I drop down to 1,1,2 again.

I also recently learned the importance of spiral within spiral. I can mobilize all my rescue lots in unit 5, but if I am unsure I can phase in 1,1,3 for safety. That way, my rescue is not all in one basket.

For attack, the spiral is even more powerful. Based on movements of troops on battlefield, the army does not simply take a position. It moves forward, lays suppressing fire, moves forward ect. This ensures that the next move is safer (aka, attack 1,1,2,3. Weak movements, take out position 3. Move continues, allow 1,1,2, to ride. Price acts weird, pull out 1,2. Price out of whack, pull out scout, wait for scout re-insertion.

Most importantly I have learned never to take both sides of a trade. If you try to hedge a position with an equal opposite position, it is doable (although it is sign of fear, meaning you should just get with the new trend). But under no circumstances should you hedge with unequal position sizes (example: 1 unit up, 2 units down) If you want to rescue, commit to it. If after a few failed tries, don't let ego sink in. Close positions and get in the new direction.

Mashewara's interpretation make a lot of sense.

Finally a thing about ego. The price will give you the hint. You have to feel yourself for fear/hope. If you have properly done the TAF method, they should not exist. All there exist are "calculated" attempts at rescue or calculated attacks. All of which can be remedied by position management and knowing when you're on the wrong side. Thus if fear sets in you have managed improperly (committed units too large, improper timing). Fixing the situation is critical, let it lead to full blown paralysis.

Sounds good?

On a side note, I'm solidifying my mindset by reading into military structure. The way they structure a division is much like the spiral within a spiral. Each battle first scouted, then division mobilizes light infantry, heavy infantry, armored calvary ect. (positions 1,2,3,5 ect). They never bring in the back up calvary without good reason (never leave big guns in battle field).

It seems VERY obvious now that when the infantry cannot be rescued by the heavy infantry or even armored support, the general should make the decision to give up his position in search of better opportunities to strike (don't let your ego get in way, the more time you waste the more opportunities you lose)

Meanwhile, aircrafts provide recon area to make sure enemy does not mobilize larger armies, or when their forces seem to be thinning out (use of daily 3K). This allows central command to get a heads up (although the general never acts on the recon alone, because the battlefield is large and enemy's troops take time to get in positions where they can hurt your army-aka time lag). Just because an enemy's forces are on the way, does not mean they are in your camp yet. That's why the general uses recon as to spot long consensus of battle, but focuses on the actual battle at hand (info provided by infantry in the present battlefield) aka the 5min should be the trigger while daily 3k acts as "larger bias to act quickly/slowly/aggressively/nimble".

Finally, the general must use the weapons that work best for his army and against the enemy. Ergo, don't mobilize the naval submarines when you are fighting on land. (aka using too many weapons in a battle). Use the ones that are appropriate for your terrain, and for YOUR battle.

I think reading on mil structure is good for solid mindset

FP

In the immortal words of Bruce Lee

"Absorb what is useful and discard the rest"

All of us see the worlds or charts through different tinted glasses of perceptions...

In the nutshell do MORE of what is increasing your booksize and LESS of that which decrease it...

The market is your teacher... Always remember that

in at 3375 watchin how 3332 responds
spiral down and up.
now down ?
keeper comin.

yep,
scaled back @ 3332 area, eyes open.

watching a/u along with 3 kingdoms for direction.

Good morning Friends.

Today we have the first day in this new year with nearly all markets opened again.

The following gives a godd idea what is going on today.

But as always:
Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The yen declined against the dollar and the euro Tuesday in Asia as firm Japanese stock prices weighed on investor demand for the safe-haven currency.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average was up 1.68% as of 0450 GMT. That prompted investors to sell the yen for riskier currencies such as the euro, dealers said.
"With higher Japanese shares, investors are in risk-taking mode," said Soichiro Mori, a manager at FXOnline Japan.
The greenback was at Y82.10 as of 0450 GMT from Y81.73 overnight in New York, and the euro was at Y109.66 from Y109.17. Against the dollar, the euro was at $1.3357 from $1.3353.
Investors expect choppy trade for the next several days as the overall market flow hasn't returned to full volume, with some market participants still on holiday.
That means the U.S. currency could erase all its early gains later in the global day, dealers said.
A possible trigger for a dollar decline could be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes for its December meeting, due at 1900 GMT.
Investors will be paying close attention to remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. If he signals any warnings about recent gains in the U.S. Treasury yields, the greenback could fall back, said Barclays Capital's chief currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 79.229 from 79.211.
[...]

First blood

bot 13340, 13337, 13331,13328 peed 13356
all squared

oii,
back to the arena ??
im glad

Hi fti,

Good to see you back in gear.

regards,

Welcome back on the dancefloor!
Glad to see you trading again

Drum rolls... The Fx kingdoms beware here come the Fti

Salute to ur mental toughness...




BTW: this is how we dance in india....

nice

regards

Some swiss parties buying around the low 30s

Markets still very thin.
Get back rhythm slowly

i still enjoying the chapa chapa dance.
lets see if ny is in gear yet.