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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #21,061
  • Jan 2, 2011 3:47am Jan 2, 2011 3:47am
Quoting fullperson
So then fti's MO is by in large trend following-aka, trading when 5min aligns with daily.
Hi!

Thats a good way to start off but as MaMood pointed out theres so much more to the picture. Remember the short TF will give you the most direct insight on what is going on at the moment. Try to get an idea of where the the 3kgds are heading, and use your SMAs when they get too choppy. Look for synchronized movements on the 3 pairs, if it exists and use a 1-1-1 skew for attacks. This will take off the extra pressure of thinking how many troops you should send in and when.
You will have enough to worry about anyway.
As for rescues, I recommend to discard the whole idea in your early stages. As a beginner, you just gonna end up adding to positions you should have got out of, giving all your profits back. If your timing is off or you were wrong about the direction, just pull the plug and try again. Try to focus on learning to identify situations when the market is setting up to head your way.

The idea of "trading with the main trend" can be very tricky. First of all, the trend on the daily or the H1 doesnt always exsists or it changes way too fast for you to be able to see it on the H1. It can easily trick you into seeing things that arent there, and if you combine that with trying to rescue dead positions, well.. you get the picture. Use these time frames to identify large barriers and be prepared for anything on the 5min.

Hope this makes any sense
  • #21,062
  • Jan 2, 2011 4:10am Jan 2, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi FTI,

Just felt I had to reply...

It took me one full year of resisting the constant thoughts of " go on, it's ok to have just one cigarette...you can go back to being a non-smoker after it!" Somehow after a year, any urge to smoke just completely disappeared and I no longer harbour any thoughts of lighting one up. I am still surrounded by smokers but it is no longer a problem. Time flies and it is now over 10 years since I had my last cigarette!
You won the battle in your mind first...and your body responded. Congrats a thousand times!!!

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #21,063
  • Edited 7:52am Jan 2, 2011 7:22am | Edited 7:52am
funny thing,
when i watched the movie, decades ago, I saw funny, resilence, love, trust. even had a ted of tears

This time i watch i feel, pain, betrayal, sacrifice and a pinch of propagander.
mostly pain and fire in belly.
For me seems lost motivational and educational value.

regards

wierd, very wierd, when in happy environments is easy see the good things. Somehow is difficult for me now feel the same good stuff. i used to think the dad very brave in holding his child to the positive thoughts. But now i just feeling lies and deception. Ai ya, dangerous signs, maybe I am depressed? Could be I have become more critcal and had changed as a person. Now I feel different very different and couldn't feel what i felt, when i saw the movie decades ago.
  • #21,064
  • Jan 2, 2011 7:56am Jan 2, 2011 7:56am
Quoting fti
funny thing,
when i watched the movie, decades ago, I saw funny, resilence, love, trust. even had a ted of tears

This time i watch i feel, pain, betrayal, sacrifice and a pinch of propagander.
mostly pain and fire in belly.
For me seems lost motivational and educational value.

regards

wierd, very wierd, when in happy environments is easy see the good things. Somehow is difficult for me now feel the same good stuff. i used to think the dad very brave in holding his child to the positive thoughts. But now i just feeling lies and deception. Ai ya,...
smile on the the guy in the mirror, I do not know why but it works against "Dark Night of the Soul" ...
  • #21,065
  • Edited 8:15am Jan 2, 2011 7:58am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting fxtsun
Growing up in the Holly land, I saw many posters everywhere claiming that the Messiah is here. Recently I visited there and saw some of the old ones together with some new ones claiming the same thing. Maybe he is already here.


I also worked hard and that bought me a window of time to spend with my new born daughter and learn the art of trading. Soon I will have to go back and work more even harder.



For every action there is a reaction.
You do more than everybody else here in FF. You teach, you share your knowledge, and you guide us. You cut...
beautiful song, I love Noa

"if I can fly,can I fly now?!"
  • #21,066
  • Edited 8:56am Jan 2, 2011 8:11am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting Kaptain Ahab
@fti....."no one had succeeded kick the habit"... is far from the truth.
many years ago in san francisco my tar posion was replaced with the green stuff, maui wowie. it made me laugh uncontrollably and gave me a better sense of being which i carry with me til now. it was nothing less than nirvana and now i indulge neither. my son, daughter and a great wife replaced both.
rgds/kevin
ps if green stuff does not suit than a good workout with yourself under the Marquis of Queensbury rules might there is always a solution.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Bm0R...eature=related...
well, good for you.
for me , i experienced and saw different.

My dad, had much heart ailments, so his doc took him off cigs. Even threathen to abandon if he did not do so. So in many ways everyone saw it good that he was off. But after he kicked the bucket, i found unfinished packet of cig in his bathroom. I not know, but I can feel he probably had big war of holding on. And he was honourable and of very tough character.

Then there is my merternal grandfather, That man is iron built. He was a rubber estate manager for the british, When I was in my 20s he was in his 60s.
He could overtake me carrying a same bag of 50kilo nitro up a hill. When he died , they listed him 101 years. for chinese you deduct 3 and you get real age., 98. He was strong as an ox. When in his 90s every time i visited him for meals, he asked. He was non smoker, never buys. But every time he sees me he asks if i had a stick on me. Probably just for relieve, i not know. but seems pain, and age drives the urges homes again.

I saw same in KC Liu, Dr Foo, and many many. All dearly departed.All men of honour and of strong chracter.
And seems only things i can remember sharing with them before they went was a smoke.

So I could be wrong, but seems smokers never ever really can kick it. Every smoker, in their life will attempt quit, some many times. But no one succeeded totally to do so.

regards

I was just thinking , whats last thing i ask for, on my death bed. no need to guess.
  • #21,067
  • Jan 2, 2011 9:03am Jan 2, 2011 9:03am
Quoting fti
funny thing,
when i watched the movie, decades ago, I saw funny, resilence, love, trust. even had a ted of tears

This time i watch i feel, pain, betrayal, sacrifice and a pinch of propagander.
mostly pain and fire in belly.
For me seems lost motivational and educational value.

regards

wierd, very wierd, when in happy environments is easy see the good things. Somehow is difficult for me now feel the same good stuff. i used to think the dad very brave in holding his child to the positive thoughts. But now i just feeling lies and deception....
have started reading ur thread from page one today and came across this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=52


.
  • #21,068
  • Jan 2, 2011 9:07am Jan 2, 2011 9:07am
Quoting fti
I was just thinking , whats last thing i ask for, on my death bed. no need to guess.
it could be a death bed............

ur a warrior after all.
.
  • #21,069
  • Jan 2, 2011 9:08am Jan 2, 2011 9:08am
Quoting fti

So I could be wrong, but seems smokers never ever really can kick it. Every smoker, in their life will attempt quit, some many times. But no one succeeded totally to do so.
I have to disagree totally with you on this point. I was a very heavy smoker for 28 years, so much so that I found it impossible to cut down to 20 /day, my 'healthy' target at the time. I quit many times, using various props and could never last even 24 hours. Then 6 years ago, I stopped all together using no props and haven't touched one since. I now know that I will never smoke again as the craving has completely lost its hold on me.

Reflecting on my own expereiences I would say that the problem is that people think that they ought to stop but don't really want to. When you really want to stop you just will. The committment arises spontaneously.
  • #21,070
  • Jan 2, 2011 9:56am Jan 2, 2011 9:56am
Quoting Vorbis
I have to disagree totally with you on this point. I was a very heavy smoker for 28 years, so much so that I found it impossible to cut down to 20 /day, my 'healthy' target at the time. I quit many times, using various props and could never last even 24 hours. Then 6 years ago, I stopped all together using no props and haven't touched one since. I now know that I will never smoke again as the craving has completely lost its hold on me.

Reflecting on my own expereiences I would say that the problem is that people think that they ought to stop...
Good, I like your determination.
I hope you prove me wrong.

regards
  • #21,071
  • Jan 2, 2011 10:16am Jan 2, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Vorbis
I have to disagree totally with you on this point. I was a very heavy smoker for 28 years, so much so that I found it impossible to cut down to 20 /day, my 'healthy' target at the time. I quit many times, using various props and could never last even 24 hours. Then 6 years ago, I stopped all together using no props and haven't touched one since. I now know that I will never smoke again as the craving has completely lost its hold on me.

Reflecting on my own expereiences I would say that the problem is that people think that they ought to stop but...

These conversations bring to mind an excerpt from the book by J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich. In it, he talks about one night he was in a hotel room and had smoked his last cigarette. Later, he was craving one badly, and got dressed at some crack-of-dawn hour to look for one in horrible, even dangerous weather. After thinking it through he realized that he was being controlled (really driven) by this insignificant thing. He changed his clothes, got back in the bed and that was the end of that. Habit kicked. One truly has to get to the place where they really want to as you have said. The mind: the power of thought and belief is much more powerful than we sometimes are willing to recognize or admit. Even Napoleon Hill talks about having a "strong burning desire" in order to accomplish.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #21,072
  • Edited 11:12am Jan 2, 2011 10:26am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting FX4Newbies
These conversations bring to mind an excerpt from the book by J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich....
What you said is facts, in the psychological aspects to the issues.
There is however another point to consider.
Its known as chemical imbalance.

In different states of mental situation that chemical balance is different.
Niow that i decided to go "on wagon". If the craving really gets bad. Exercise may provide the balance by endorphins and the thousands steroid effects. But if I had a position run bad against me . It could trigger collapse. Normal contribtors are stress , pain, temperature and dullness ie ( emotional balance)


regards

Ok we use your quoted example.
The fact that Mr getty got a craving call from the body indiccated chemical alignment required.
He consciously made an effort fight it off and succeeded, also contributing effect was the situation of bad weather.
But if situation was changed, and someone just took a couple shots at him, then I have strong believe, that carve will not be so easily tackled.
99% chance is that he will be smoking at the earliest convenience.

So in fact the issue is not whether the smoker will fall off the wagon. In fact under some circumstances, non smokers joins. But depending on the resilence of the individual. Where that break treshold is.

And just to relate my real life experience.
When i was in Kolej, I used ride a scrambler , in fact was the yamaha 125XR series. Still remember it like yesterday.
I was off cigs, for a few months , happily.
I took a sharp high speed turn, wheelied under a parked military truck, waiting ferry some school kids. Thank God it was parked. Crawled out from under , driping blood all over. The private driving the truck came running to help me. We ended sitting by the roadside , As he and a packet we, just sat smoking, so off the wagon i went again.
You see many many factors comes to play.
  • #21,073
  • Edited 10:45am Jan 2, 2011 10:26am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting fti
What you said is facts, in the psychological aspects to the issues.
There is however another point to consider.
Its known as chemical imbalance.

In different states of mental situation that chemical balance is different.

regards
That is where the miracles come in . I also believe if you give the body what it needs naturally it can and will repair itself. Many of these additives need to be removed from the body and there are herbal formulations that can do so. "All things are possible to them who are the believing". Another saying that I heard (not sure who coined it)..."If you argue for your limitations, you get to keep them." A very hard saying, but I use it to keep myself in check and moving forward; not choosing to settle for what I really don't want. (Not trying to rub salt in any wounds, just want to see people as free as they could be).

FX4Newbies

P.S. Per Winston Churchill...Never, Never, Never give up. This might sound crazy...when the craving comes, speak to it. Read some of what Christ had to say in the Gospels. He's already said and done so much leaving us examples to follow .
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #21,074
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:07pm Jan 2, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting fti
what you doing there?
Setting up a Bank?

ya Happy 2011
regards
Not setting up a bank but I think I'm keeping them happy with the expenditure coming out of my account. Just a family holiday to escape the cold weather in Europe.
  • #21,075
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:27pm Jan 2, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting fti
thanks God, a miracle.

The truth as i know it, and believe is.
In so far as smoking is concern, the only way quit smoking, is not to start.
Once on , we can try best we can, but no one had succeeded kick the habit. no one truthfully.
Remissions i had seen is due to health problems. Some serious, and some irritational.
when chance presents, they always revert. every one that i had seen.

Many tries go down to raw tobacco, until the end.


regards
I will disagree with you there fti. If you applied your trading mindset to smoking you would stop immediately.

I stopped when I read "The Easyway to stop smoking" by Alan Carr and the things I realised when I read the book where:

1. The addiction is quite weak. This guy was a 100 a day smoker (yes, a chain smoker - he didn't stop). He was hypnotised and didn't smoke for 3 months even though he didn't know why. He realised he went from 100 day to 0 and had no side effects, meaning the addiction is weak.

2. The reason smokers find it difficult to stop is, believe it or not, fear. They fear how boring life will be without the stick. How can life be interesting, eating food and drinking without a smoke afterwards? Well, I can testify that life is so much better without the stick.

3. The brainwashing of smokers is everywhere. We had to force ourselves to becomes smokers because it is disgusting. Who enjoyed their first cigarette? No-one did. Eventually, we believed what other smokers told us (well, we were young and inexperienced but it stuck). Like, "It's difficult to stop once started". We watch movies, seeing "cool" and "tough" people smoke. When we see someone just about to die, what do they request? A smoke right? The cigarette companies love that.

Once I read the book, it de-brainwashed me. I stopped smoking and I knew I only needed to smoke one and I was a smoker again. The first two weeks I was a grumpy person. The first year I still had thoughts of having one but 7 years later I haven't had one and I don't intend to ever have one again. I feel so much better for it.

At the time after reading this book, I stopped and so did my wife. My best friend did and so did his mother (first book she read in English).

fti, you are a trading master. You know when people fool themselves into believing something that isn't true. The fallacy of trading. Well, there is also a fallacy of smoking. It is easy to stop and you'll feel so much better for it. It's as simple and not having one ever again knowing it just takes one to become a smoker again. Once you decide that you free yourself of the stick. If a thought about smoking comes to mind, defeat it by not having one. There is nothing to fear, life is better on the other side. I can testify to that.
  • #21,076
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:45pm Jan 2, 2011 2:45pm
Hi Friends,

would like to take your attention to the following book:
http://www.amazon.de/Blink-Power-Thi...4000422&sr=1-1

I assume some of you know it already.

It is agreat read to understand how your brain is making decisions based on a very short blink of time. Some of us will call it intuition, gut feeling, others may call it feeling the rythm of the market ..... ;-)

This type of decision is taking place for example, when you take a very very short look on a chart and it is very clear to you that the trend is up. But when you take a more detailed look, your first impression starts to get more and more dodgy. And finally you do not know, what the trend really is. After you have traded the chart for some time you know, your first impression was without any doubt right.

Malcolm Gladwell gives a lot of very good examples about how our brain is working in that specific aspect of decision making. And he will destroy most of your arguments not to believe in your "first impression" ....

CU,
Niels
  • #21,077
  • Edited 4:21pm Jan 2, 2011 4:07pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

would like to take your attention to the following book:
http://www.amazon.de/Blink-Power-Thi...4000422&sr=1-1

I assume some of you know it already.

It is agreat read to understand how your brain is making decisions based on a very short blink of time. Some of us will call it intuition, gut feeling, others may call it feeling the rythm of the market ..... ;-)

This type of decision is taking place for example, when you take a very very short look on...
Always believe in "love at first sight" ...
and the question about smoking, ... smoking or not smoking? ... Shakespeare question (but thanks for reading)

PS I think to quit smoking is similar to, last longer under water, run faster, jump higher etc.
  • #21,078
  • Jan 2, 2011 4:15pm Jan 2, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting Zoran
If a thought about smoking comes to mind, defeat it by not having one. .
Hello Zoran,

I'm not a smoker but I am so glad you shared these points. The one I quoted above is extremely powerful. Earlier today, I was thinking about the different approaches to TA and thought, "If I am looking for measured moves for example, my mind might not see a symmetrical triangle forming." Was thinking about how important it is to be focused on what you are after and not indulge in distractions.

I like the idea of defeating the thought by not fulfilling its instructions. Usually the thought that is satisfied gains strength. On the other hand, if you fulfill the desire of the goal, in this case, not smoking, then that thought/desire gains strength. Thoughts are things: the one that is fed/satisfied keeps living.

Thanks again,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #21,079
  • Edited 8:14pm Jan 2, 2011 7:50pm | Edited 8:14pm
Happy New Year to everyone. My hope is we all find just a bit more peace.
Just thought I'd share a story that was shared with me not too long ago.
The legend of two wolves..
An elder is teaching his grandson about life. "A fight is going on inside me," he said to the boy.
"It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One is pure evil - he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego." He continued, "The other is good - he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you - and inside every other person, too."
The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, "Which wolf will win?"
The elder simply replied, "The one you feed."
  • #21,080
  • Edited 9:15pm Jan 2, 2011 7:52pm | Edited 9:15pm
Quoting Zoran
I will disagree with you there fti....
Hi Zoran,
Again we need cross swords.
No not if smoking is good or bad. That depends.

But since you decided display you arrogance scorpions, then i will try show you your weakness again.

Firstly if you want to parrot other points of view or opinions.
Please be clear about them in your minds.

1. Disagreeing with me is absolutely ok. In fact many people disagrees with me on numerous subjects. But to say taht, if I applied my trading mindset to smoking I would stop, is half saying you actually know how i think,
then summerise it by calling me a fool or liar.
Because i am applying my mindset when i trade, although i am not doing so now. When and if i trade again , you can be rest assured that i will do what i do. Surely i must be a fool or am a liar , because i am still smoking. Only that its been 3 days since i light my last cig.
So maybe if you would be so kind as to keep your arrogance to yourself in of what i should i know and do. I should be the better judge of myself and you , i believe still is having a hard time understanding my mindset.

2. also if you please, not call all smokers in the world weakings. When you start putting mr Alan Carr, putting him on a pedalstil. that is ok, but to generalise and call all smokers weakings who cannot overcome a weak addiction? Maybe really, the arrogance is overbearing? Don't you think?
So all who not smoke are powerful mindsets and all who smoke are weaklings?
Surely you know the consequences of making general statements like this?

3. and smokers are so afraid? of what?
4. Brainwashed?
Ok i think i no need elaborate further?
I am so glad that your family and friensds are the best peoples who lives on earth, Good for you. The superior peoples?

And about me again.
Let me be clear.
I am no trading master, neither proclaimed or titled.
I just someone mastered trading for many years and trying share some ideas with people wiilling to listen.
There is no fallacy in trading, only fallacy in the use of certain Skill sets by very arrogant and deceived minds, it is my opinion that they are in such states mostly because of their ego that all knowing of whats good and right and seems they know best, also ability clearly predict the future..Do a check won't you?
And please not have illusions that there are sides. Smokers and non. You can in fact start a discrimination and segregation movement by that standing alone. Frankly the world is divided badly enough, i think i like say "let it be.' Now you know who are the people made yellow box systems?
Soon will have red box and black box segregation too. Already migrant offsprings had segregated their migrante parents.
You know who made all the problems? It is those who are too cock-sure of themselves , and unable to see other sides' opinions nor have empathy for others predicaments, that normally turn ......

regards

Although smoking may not be a pleasant habit at all. If you have to attack, do it to the habit, not the people. ok?
Mostly i believe you only parotting the mr carr, and i have low esteem to what i had just witnessed, so no need for me read his stuff.
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