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Dreamliners MPAS EAs, Indicators, etc

  • #101
  • Jan 2, 2011 4:47am Jan 2, 2011 4:47am
Looking forward!

福 子 Victor V
  • #102
  • Jan 2, 2011 10:50am Jan 2, 2011 10:50am
Quoting Chris_B
Yes..what you are doing is surely the most accurate backtesting possible...
Can you run an optimization to see what would be the better settings?
I've tested a few combinations of TP/SL/Range Bar Size and I do not get the strategy to return positive pips for 2010.

I've also tried a few filters:
- no trades when spread > 3.0 (GBPUSD)
- open long trades only when price above MA - used H1 EMA(200)
- open short trades only when price below MA - used H1 EMA(200)

All these filters do is cut down the number of trades, but still not positive pips for the year.

There just is no edge here. They are range bars not magic bars.

Your EA will certainly help folks do some testing of different scenarios. Hopefully, someone can find a combination of settings and/or filters that will bring them good results.

But, then again, my "negative" opinion of the strategy(ies) seems to be in the minority. Most folks seem to be experiencing nice results trading manually and/or with EA. Although, these results are very limited in quantity, they have been positive nonetheless. All we can do is give our opinion and leave it up to each trader to make their own decisions based upon their own experiences.

Thanks!
  • #103
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:05am Jan 2, 2011 11:05am
Thanks very much for your testing and providing the results. As I mentioned earlier, I have never once found an EA to be profitable, Even EA's that everybody was saying they were profitable with I could not make work. So I have given up totally on all EA's. This doesn't mean that others shouldn't use them, it only means that I will most likely never trade with an EA.

Quoting zznbrm
I've tested a few combinations of TP/SL/Range Bar Size and I do not get the strategy to return positive pips for 2010.

I've also tried a few filters:
- no trades when spread > 3.0 (GBPUSD)
- open long trades only when price above MA - used H1 EMA(200)
- open short trades only when price below MA - used H1 EMA(200)

All these filters do is cut down the number of trades, but still not positive pips for the year.

There just is no edge here. They are range bars not magic bars.

Your EA will certainly help folks do some testing of different scenarios....
  • #104
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:09am Jan 2, 2011 11:09am
EA isn't the problem, the method is the problem.
Take this one for example, if the method you have laid out is profitable, the ea will be profitable. There's no discretion involved, so it's no different than taking the trades manually.


An EA is as good and only as good as the trading method it implements
  • #105
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:11am Jan 2, 2011 11:11am
This doesn't provide a sufficient answer to the reason why we are profitable with manual trading but not with the EA. Sorry.

P.S. I have seen this a number of times, by the way. Where the mechanical system is profitable when traded manually, but not with an EA. I don't understand the phenomenon, I only can report it to be true.

Quoting tazmaan
EA isn't the problem, the method is the problem.
Take this one for example, if the method you have laid out is profitable, the ea will be profitable. There's no discretion involved, so it's no different than taking the trades manually.


An EA is as good and only as good as the trading method it implements
  • #106
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:15am Jan 2, 2011 11:15am
You act like your 'profitable' manual trading results are long term. What has it been, two weeks at most?
Anyhow, time will tell whether both the strategy, and the ea are profitable on this, so there's really no reason to try to predict the future
  • #107
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:17am Jan 2, 2011 11:17am
A total of 200 trades, backtesting combined with live trading. Certainly not enough data, for sure, but more than enough to convince me to continue trading it.

This, by the way, is the reason I don't allow EA discussions in the main thread.

Quoting tazmaan
You act like your 'profitable' manual trading results are long term. What has it been, two weeks at most?
Anyhow, time will tell whether both the strategy, and the ea are profitable on this, so there's really no reason to try to predict the future
  • #108
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:22am Jan 2, 2011 11:22am
Dreamliner,

zznbrm and Tazmaan are correct. If a person was to take every trade over a long time say 3 or more years this method is not profitable. Sorry to burst your bubble but ea's are not subjective and trade exactly how a method is written.

Regards,
Jeff



Quoting Dreamliner
A total of 200 trades, backtesting combined with live trading. Certainly not enough data, for sure, but more than enough to convince me to continue trading it.

This, by the way, is the reason I don't allow EA discussions in the main thread.
  • #109
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:26am Jan 2, 2011 11:26am
Oh my bubble is not burst whatsoever. I have no dog in this fight, no ego in the method whatsoever. Nor am I willing to say that because a robot cannot trade forex neither can I. It's a personal thing, I'm sure, I just cannot stand robots. Probably because of all the hype that so many of them promised, but could not deliver the goods.

So I'm neither discouraged nor encouraged with any EA's, I just disregard them and continue trading.

Quoting azjeff
Dreamliner,

zznbrm and Tazmaan are correct. If a person was to take every trade over a long time say 3 or more years this method is not profitable. Sorry to burst your bubble but ea's are not subjective and trade exactly how a method is written.

Regards,
Jeff
  • #110
  • Edited 11:54am Jan 2, 2011 11:32am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting azjeff
Dreamliner,

zznbrm and Tazmaan are correct. If a person was to take every trade over a long time say 3 or more years this method is not profitable. Sorry to burst your bubble but ea's are not subjective and trade exactly how a method is written.

Regards,
Jeff
Well what you say is true to a point. The EAs that have been tested are rigid and do not adapt over time. DreamLiner on the other hand has already adapted to a changing condition. When he started, he was using a 30 pip range bar and has now changed to a 50 pip range bar and probably will adapt many times more. None of these EAs do this. I do not know if this method is profitable over time, but it seems likely that the way it will be profitable is with adaptation over time.
  • #111
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:32am Jan 2, 2011 11:32am
Hello Dreamliner,

Hmmm, Interesting because at one time you did when you asked for an ea to be made here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=29745
and you started an ea thread for this system. How quickly a person's mind changes, lol. Hope you get many pips from your method though and it was very nice of you to share your method.

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting Dreamliner
Oh my bubble is not burst whatsoever. I have no dog in this fight, no ego in the method whatsoever. Nor am I willing to say that because a robot cannot trade forex neither can I. It's a personal thing, I'm sure, I just cannot stand robots. Probably because of all the hype that so many of them promised, but could not deliver the goods.

So I'm neither discouraged nor encouraged with any EA's, I just disregard them and continue trading.
  • #112
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:37am Jan 2, 2011 11:37am
Yep, I most definitely learned, between the time of asking for an EA and now, that EAs are simply not profitable.

Thanks for your kind words Jeff!

Quoting azjeff
Hello Dreamliner,

Hmmm, Interesting because at one time you did when you asked for an ea to be made here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=29745
and you started an ea thread for this system. How quickly a person's mind changes, lol. Hope you get many pips from your method though and it was very nice of you to share your method.

Regards,
Jeff
  • #113
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:38am Jan 2, 2011 11:38am
Exactly right, SMJones, and hence the reason for the tread. Adapt, change and grow, that's my M.O. (sorry for the silly rhyme!).

Quoting smjones
Well what you say is true to a point. The EAs that have been tested are ridged and do not adapt over time. DreamLiner on the other hand has already adapted to a changing condition. When he started, he was using a 30 pip range bar and has now changed to a 50 pip range bar and probably will adapt many times more. None of these EAs do this. I do not know if this method is profitable over time, but it seems likely that the way it will be profitable is with adaptation over time.
  • #114
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:47am Jan 2, 2011 11:47am
Quoting smjones
Well what you say is true to a point. The EAs that have been tested are ridged and do not adapt over time. DreamLiner on the other hand has already adapted to a changing condition. When he started, he was using a 30 pip range bar and has now changed to a 50 pip range bar and probably will adapt many times more. None of these EAs do this. I do not know if this method is profitable over time, but it seems likely that the way it will be profitable is with adaptation over time.
Dreamliner did not adapt anything to changing conditions. After 2 days of visually backtesting the 30 pip version, he switched to the 50 pip version probably because it "looked" better. There was no adapting to changing conditions...this is simply a bunch of guys throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. I'm sure some fine strategies have been developed this way. Hopefully, they will find something that sticks.

The EAs are written based upon a strategy. If the underlying strategy is "ridged" (sic), then the EA is rigid. Change the underlying strategy to something that can adapt to market conditions, then the EA creators will change the EA accordingly.
  • #115
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:50am Jan 2, 2011 11:50am
methinks somebody was offended at the challenge of his backtesting methods. Hard to harbor grudges in life, my friend, it will get you in the end. My encouragement to you is to drop this method entirely from your trading EA arsenal; it is clear that it is not profitable for you (and maybe for nobody).

Quoting zznbrm
Dreamliner did not adapt anything to changing conditions. After 2 days of visually backtesting the 30 pip version, he switched to the 50 pip version probably because it "looked" better. There was no adapting to changing conditions...this is simply a bunch of guys throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. I'm sure some fine strategies have been developed this way. Hopefully, they will find something that sticks.

The EAs are written based upon a strategy. If the underlying strategy is "ridged" (sic), then the EA is rigid. Change the underlying...
  • #116
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:52am Jan 2, 2011 11:52am
Quoting zznbrm
Dreamliner did not adapt anything to changing conditions. After 2 days of visually backtesting the 30 pip version, he switched to the 50 pip version probably because it "looked" better. There was no adapting to changing conditions...this is simply a bunch of guys throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. I'm sure some fine strategies have been developed this way. Hopefully, they will find something that sticks.

The EAs are written based upon a strategy. If the underlying strategy is "ridged" (sic), then the EA is rigid. Change the underlying...
Oops, thanks for the correction on my spelling. I will go and edit my post to reflect the correct spelling. Your point is taken, however I do not agree with it.
  • #117
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:16pm Jan 2, 2011 2:16pm
Yes, there are no profitable EA's here. Everyone should abandon any further research of this method using EA's. Its a complete waste of time...
  • #118
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:36pm Jan 2, 2011 2:36pm
I would agree with you, and add "no profitable EAs ANYWHERE."

Quoting crodzilla
Yes, there are no profitable EA's here. Everyone should abandon any further research of this method using EA's. Its a complete waste of time...
  • #119
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:38pm Jan 2, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting Dreamliner
I would agree with you, and add "no profitable EAs ANYWHERE."
Do you see no point in backtesting?
  • #120
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:39pm Jan 2, 2011 2:39pm
What's funny is crodzilla's post was sarcastic, DL's was not
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