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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #4,921
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:22am Dec 15, 2010 5:22am
I have a triple three higher for USDJPY... Bit concerned since EURUSD also looks bearish... but here we go:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...ripleThree.jpg

All ratios look corrective to me...

The final Wave (c):

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...finalWavec.jpg

Targets for Wave -iii-:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...Wavectable.jpg

Risk will be any failure to break above 84.40 again and a slip below 83.50-60 and then yesterday's 82.83 low... would send price down directly I think...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #4,922
  • Dec 15, 2010 8:19pm Dec 15, 2010 8:19pm
EUR/JPY - A little change to my wave count.

If Ian looks for JPY to weeken and EUR to gain,
then EUR/JPY should go up. I changed the count
to an x, a & b with wave c to come yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 1215.jpg Size: 99 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #4,923
  • Dec 15, 2010 8:41pm Dec 15, 2010 8:41pm
Closer look at EUR/JPY - 5 min

If a five wave move can only be a wave A or C,
then we might have the start of the next leg up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 1215.jpg Size: 79 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #4,924
  • Dec 15, 2010 8:48pm Dec 15, 2010 8:48pm
Same look for AUD/JPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.gif Size: 26 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #4,925
  • Dec 17, 2010 2:32am Dec 17, 2010 2:32am
EURUSD update from 2 days ago when I suggested I thought we'd seen a double zigzag and felt we should see a triple three. It moved lower than I thought it would but made the call yesterday for a bounce from 1.3183... Here was the count with ratios:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...riplethree.jpg

Emphasis is on forecasting and to provide evidence of this (only), the following were my comments yesterday:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...SDcomments.jpg

From my previous post which suggested we had seen a double zigzag to 1.3497, assuming I'm right this should imply an ABC higher to complete a triple three higher...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #4,926
  • Jan 2, 2011 4:13am Jan 2, 2011 4:13am
Quoting Ian Copsey
EURUSD update from 2 days ago when I suggested I thought we'd seen a double zigzag and felt we should see a triple three. It moved lower than I thought it would but made the call yesterday for a bounce from 1.3183... Here was the count with ratios:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...riplethree.jpg

Emphasis is on forecasting and to provide evidence of this (only), the following were my comments yesterday:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...SDcomments.jpg

From my previous...
my counting are searching wave 2,4,or b...that's all....
Elliot wave is essential and pair correlation is one of the most powerful tools..
and all indicator are powerful when those 3 combination married...
UC-EU-EU
stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #4,927
  • Edited 5:07am Jan 2, 2011 4:40am | Edited 5:07am
[quote=Ian Copsey;4250099]EURUSD update from 2 days ago when I suggested I thought we'd seen a double zigzag and felt we should see a triple three. It moved lower than I thought it would but made the call yesterday for a bounce from 1.3183... Here was the count with ratios:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...riplethree.jpg
I have seen you on Dailyfx...

Always wanted to ask you a Question ..

What these different Fib ratios tell You?...

What I meant is how would you know if waveB finished or waveC or whatever..

cause they dont fit into any Elliotwave rules as far as Fibs are considered..

So why have you made it so complicated to count? eg: 33.3%...58.6%.....

If you have time Please explain....

My question is mostly concerned with EUR/USD. The Golden Ratio you are looking ...for the completion of any WAVE..can you predict them before

Time?....If so next move should also be labelled in the Charts....Someone mentioned a Book by You..?Where can I find it.

I dont mean to question your skills..just curious to understand where you are coming from?

Regards,

Raza.

PS: Its good to have you here...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #4,928
  • Jan 2, 2011 7:19am Jan 2, 2011 7:19am
Quoting AZ-Heat
EUR/JPY - A little change to my wave count.

If Ian looks for JPY to weeken and EUR to gain,
then EUR/JPY should go up. I changed the count
to an x, a & b with wave c to come yet.
how can we determine the wave,,? sorry I am a nubie,,

how can we assess the wave that will continue or end,,?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #4,929
  • Jan 3, 2011 2:47am Jan 3, 2011 2:47am
[quote=Raza;4279611]
Quoting Ian Copsey
EURUSD update from 2 days ago when I suggested I thought we'd seen a double zigzag and felt we should see a triple three. It moved lower than I thought it would but made the call yesterday for a bounce from 1.3183... Here was the count with ratios:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...riplethree.jpg
I have seen you on Dailyfx...

Always wanted to ask you a Question ..

What these different Fib ratios tell You?...

What I meant is how would you know if waveB finished or waveC or whatever.....
Hi Raza

Thanks for asking! Well, right from the start I have to say that from my experience R.N. Elliott (understandably) misjudged the wave structure. If you think of him 80+ years ago, he had to do all his wave analysis checks long hand. Nowadays we can generate a full range of potential wave relationships in a spreadsheet with a few inputs...

While preparing my analysis some years ago I was aware that standard Fibo ratios just didn't work. The concept of extended waves basically made forecasting a hit or miss affair as far as I am concerned. So I changed my perception and looked for moves that were related - and in the end discovered that Waves 1, 3 & 5 all develop not in 5 waves but in 3's... By using this methodology I found my projections become a lot more accurate.

On the Fib ratios - I have found that the basic ones don't really occur that frequently and that projections come more in terms of the ratios below 100% being added to 100%, 200% etc occur with increased frequency.

Then by being able to identify a Wave (iii) target with the Wave (c) target of Wave (iii) and also the internal Wave v of Wave (c) the accuracy is enhanced. I actually find this a lot easier to count as there are normally several supporting targets. It also provides better break levels when I get it wrong... so as far as I am concerned the removal of extended waves and failed fifths make this a lot easier!

It is explained in my book - but it has just gone through the 2nd edit and should be in book stores by end Feb/beginning of March. I do have an article that provides a basic explanation on my website - left hand column - on www.harmonic-ewave.com. I think that will explain a bit more for you and provide some examples. You will see on the HEW Calls page how the DJIA and gold calls I made on LinkedIn developed perfectly. The DJIA remains moving according to my forecasts...

Good luck
Ian
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #4,930
  • Jan 3, 2011 5:20am Jan 3, 2011 5:20am
[quote=Ian Copsey;4281511]
Quoting Raza

Hi Raza

Thanks for asking! Well, right from the start I have to say that from my experience R.N. Elliott (understandably) misjudged the wave structure. If you think of him 80+ years ago, he had to do all his wave analysis checks long hand. Nowadays we can generate a full range of potential wave relationships in a spreadsheet with a few inputs...

While preparing my analysis some years ago I was aware that standard Fibo ratios just didn't work. The concept of extended waves basically made forecasting a hit or miss affair...
Thanks for explaining.. I have read this on Dailyfx as well...

I agree...

Basic Fibs donot work all times


I have done some work a well...I believe every instrument of the Market

has different frequency... I have not explored other instruments but...

for EUR/USD and GBP/USD... there is an easier way to find reversals or

bounces by plotting 3 different Fib levels...INSTEAD OF measuring every

wave such as 33.3% ... 58.6% ETC...

Accuracy is Deadly ...I believe you are after the same thing as I am

accuracy( perfection) to take a swing Position without much or any

Drawdowns..

I will explain this by Chart examples...later as I am very busy with other

things in Life....But I will...someday..soon...


Another question is Does your findings work on every Instrument...?

Regards,

Raza.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #4,931
  • Jan 3, 2011 6:18am Jan 3, 2011 6:18am
[quote=Raza;4281817]
Quoting Ian Copsey
Thanks for explaining.. I have read this on Dailyfx as well...

I agree...

Basic Fibs donot work all times


I have done some work a well...I believe every instrument of the Market

has different frequency... I have not explored other instruments but...

for EUR/USD and GBP/USD... there is an easier way to find reversals or

bounces by plotting 3 different Fib levels...INSTEAD OF measuring every

wave such as 33.3% ... 58.6% ETC...

Accuracy is Deadly ...I believe you are after the same thing as I am

[color=blue]...
Yes, while I agree that every instrument has its own character, the Harmonic Elliott Wave structure works across every market I have tried it on and in my opinion with far greater logic.

How do you do with projections? (especially to new historic highs/lows?) Apart from Wave (iv) which can be judged with more accuracy due to alternation (oh, and Wave (b) of Wave (iii) ), other corrective waves can be anything from 5.6% to 100%... For those you just need to be aware of the internal structure and to a certain extent the structure from the higher degree.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #4,932
  • Jan 3, 2011 8:30am Jan 3, 2011 8:30am
In my counting i use a modified Macd to do my wave counting...

Basically i know the higest peack on my macd represents some impersive wave of a kind so i do my wave count starting from that point..then i carry out a fibo on that wave to see wat range it follows.....if its a wave 1 then i know once that impersive wave is done iam going into a correction wave of some sort then iam aware of the next wave coming to making so i act as needed.

I also know that within an impersive wave there should be 5 waves..that make 1 big leg of a wave....

Don`t forget to use ADX to findout if its trending or not by using the adx slope not the level...


ADX SLOPE = ADX NLEVEL OF NOW CANDLE- ADX LEVEL OF PREVIOUS CANDLE

I put on a trader of ADX level comes out 0 and negative.....
  • #4,933
  • Jan 3, 2011 8:32am Jan 3, 2011 8:32am
I agree normal fibo levels dnt really work but iam still trying to find the levels that work..if someone can help me out on the levels they use on FSTE or forx currencies that would be of great help
  • #4,934
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:04am Jan 3, 2011 9:04am
Quoting mikeshavine
I agree normal fibo levels dnt really work but iam still trying to find the levels that work..if someone can help me out on the levels they use on FSTE or forx currencies that would be of great help
It all depends on where you are in the harmonic wave structure. If you are talking about Wave (ii) or Wave (b) (but not in Wave (iii)) then they can be just about anything.

Wave (b) of Wave (iii) in most cases 23.6%-58.6%
Wave (iv) - use alternation with Wave (ii) and look for a sum of the two between 80% and 120% - normally quite close to 100%

Wave (iii) - 176.4%-198.4% & 261.8%-294.4% cover the majority

Wave (v) - Forex - 61.8%-85.4% cover the majority
- equity - can be 50% or 58.% as well...

Wave (c) ... anywhere between 85.4% and 261.8% to be honest - majority 85.4% and 161.8%

Always use these with reference to the next lower/higher degree targets...

These will not work with Elliott's structure so well ... in fact it's all hit and miss which is why I had to look for what was really happening...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #4,935
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:41am Jan 3, 2011 10:41am
ab=cd and elliot wave in weekly time frim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy.gif Size: 72 KB
one secret in the forex. im belive.
  • #4,936
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:45am Jan 3, 2011 10:45am
Do you really trade off elliott waves..i personally use them as an opion kind of methode then i use other methods to judge if to take the trade...

Elliott wave is really kind of intresting to trade off..

so i only use it as an oppiopn kind of cheack list....

Yeah regarding fibos don`t these levels varry based on the kind of instrument your trading..
for example Fibos for FTSE wont work on Forex.

can you advise.

And yeah don`t you take candle formation partterns in consideration including r:r before you trade???
  • #4,937
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:46am Jan 3, 2011 10:46am
Do you really trade off elliott waves..i personally use them as an opion kind of methode then i use other methods to judge if to take the trade...

Elliott wave is really kind of intresting to trade off..

so i only use it as an oppiopn kind of cheack list....

Yeah regarding fibos don`t these levels varry based on the kind of instrument your trading..
for example Fibos for FTSE wont work on Forex.

can you advise.

And yeah don`t you take candle formation partterns in consideration including r:r before you trade???
  • #4,938
  • Jan 3, 2011 1:49pm Jan 3, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting mikeshavine
Do you really trade off elliott waves..i personally use them as an opion kind of methode then i use other methods to judge if to take the trade...

Elliott wave is really kind of intresting to trade off..

so i only use it as an oppiopn kind of cheack list....

Yeah regarding fibos don`t these levels varry based on the kind of instrument your trading..
for example Fibos for FTSE wont work on Forex.

can you advise.

And yeah don`t you take candle formation partterns in consideration including r:r before you trade???
Well, you should never trade off one form of analysis. It's vital to integrate different & complimentary techniques. Using momentum effectively helps identify which projection has a greater chance of holding. I also use cycles to generate larger directional forces.

However, I haven't found anything stronger than understanding structural price development. I agree that EW as it stands now is effectively a poor indicator and that's why I spent a lot of time researching into wave relationships. However, I find the Harmonic Elliott Wave structure is far more robust and when the right count is recognized the accuracy can be stunning. If you don't get the right wave count then momentum should be one warning signal - the other should be an incomplete structure and wave relationships that just don't work out...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #4,939
  • Jan 3, 2011 5:14pm Jan 3, 2011 5:14pm
You say harmonic wave counts whats that...does it differ from ew.whats the difference..yes with cycles i understand but i thought cycles really work for long time investments...not on 15min to 4hr charts how do you link them with EW.can you educate..
  • #4,940
  • Jan 3, 2011 5:25pm Jan 3, 2011 5:25pm
can you tell me about your cycles method ........I use the fib time zone on the elliott waves.....and it's stunningly accurate.....but I am a lousy trader because I am........

I just lost on that 1 hour bar that overlapped wave 4 before markets opened....this overlap with heavy trading busted me....

I am trying to see the limits with my new method.....and this was one of the pitfalls...

And I realize even if you know pulse ; It might be harder knowing yourself....


I am trying to turn 5,000 to a million just to know how foolish I am.....

Demoing a trillion away so far....

Please share your cycles stuff....If you search through some of my jibbirish posts....I think you may find something interesting for you
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