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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #21,021
  • Jan 1, 2011 7:52am Jan 1, 2011 7:52am
And this is finaly by the Chief. Not the drawings, but positions yes...
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Click to Enlarge Name: 20100108 M5.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #21,022
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:04am Jan 1, 2011 8:04am
And this is one super-post from master Aux. Simple, sumarized...



Quoting auxesis
Keep it simple,

Dow has 6 major parts,

Market has 3 movements (or better said time frames imho...) Overall trend, Daily/weekly, correction phases.... hourly/4 hour, current move (NOW)..... all can be in tandem or moving opposite,...
  • #21,023
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:15am Jan 1, 2011 8:15am
Guys who are new here : Please, here are mostly profitable traders, full-time and really professionalls. Do you think is it the best to think out your own practises or learn from them?
With respect Fana (I was the same before 1,5years...)
  • #21,024
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:21am Jan 1, 2011 8:21am
Quoting Gro
You think that you are well?
and rescue 1,1,2,3 ... 1-5 is big for starters and it is a little variations.
attack no 1,2,2 ... but 1,1,2
you understand why?
so basically you're right (you must be convinced that you are OK)
If I gave attack 1,2 third step would be 3 ... one step protects the second step.
  • #21,025
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:24am Jan 1, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Gro
so basically you're right (you must be convinced that you are OK)
If I gave attack 1,2 third step would be 3 ... one step protects the second step.
If i can add, maybe better word than "protect" can be "suppose" when attack... regards
  • #21,026
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:24am Jan 1, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Fana
Guys who are new here : Please, here are mostly profitable traders, full-time and really professionalls. Do you think is it the best to think out your own practises or learn from them?
With respect Fana (I was the same before 1,5years...)
only as good as the last trade

"suppose" is still in action
  • #21,027
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:26am Jan 1, 2011 8:26am
Quoting Gro
only as good as the last trade
recorded...


...Educational phases : 1,2,3
1 thinks that is 3.
2 know that is not 3, and that is why 2is not 1
2 can tell 1 to listen 3 to become 2.
2 have to go ahead self by navigating by 3

does this make sense???
  • #21,028
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:42am Jan 1, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Fana
recorded...
If you want statistics from brokers:
About 60% of new traders in the first 3 months the end.
Another 20%, continues throughout the year and then in desperation take risks so that extinction is guaranteed.
What might surprise you is that of those remaining 20% will last about 3 years, but for three years now, we will continue, and essentially directed towards making money consistently, only a further 5-10%.
By the way - these are real numbers.
If you think you know more, ask someone to chat, who traded five years how long it takes to become a 100% skilled. I assume that there are exceptions - but I still did not meet with anyone so.
  • #21,029
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:44am Jan 1, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Fana
recorded...


...Educational phases : 1,2,3
1 thinks that is 3.
2 know that is not 3, and that is why 2is not 1
2 can tell 1 to listen 3 to become 2.
2 have to go ahead self by navigating by 3

does this make sense???
  • #21,030
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:46am Jan 1, 2011 8:46am
Quoting Gro
If you want statistics from brokers:
About 60% of new traders in the first 3 months the end.
Another 20%, continues throughout the year and then in desperation take risks so that extinction is guaranteed.
What might surprise you is that of those remaining 20% will last about 3 years, but for three years now, we will continue, and essentially directed towards making money consistently, only a further 5-10%.
By the way - these are real numbers.
If you think you know more, ask someone to chat, who traded five years how long it takes to become a 100%...
Agree, thats why i am here
  • #21,031
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:48am Jan 1, 2011 8:48am
Quoting Gro
I was a teachr, you know...
  • #21,032
  • Jan 1, 2011 8:58am Jan 1, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Fana
I was a teachr, you know...
I see
... half of my family as well

Now be still only a student ...
  • #21,033
  • Jan 1, 2011 1:07pm Jan 1, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting Vorbis
I recently finished reading through this thread, taking notes along the way and this is my understanding so far.

You must go with the current flow until it changes. As soon as you try to predict what is going to happen in advance, whether that is 5 days or 5 mins, you are clouding your vision with illusions. The problem is that you will predict "correctly" about 50% of the time and this will create the illusion that there is some value to your prediction and re-inforce a bad habit. The only real guide available is the current state of sentiment...
Good start. Try to make the demo as real as possible. E.G. If you plan to go live with $500 or $1000 then start off the demo with $100 or $1000 not the $50000 the demo gives you. All the best with your trading. Ray
  • #21,034
  • Jan 1, 2011 1:10pm Jan 1, 2011 1:10pm
May your coming year be filled with magic and dreams and good madness. I hope you read some fine books and kiss someone who thinks you're wonderful, and don't forget to make some art -- write or draw or build or sing or live as only you can. And I hope, somewhere in the next year, you surprise yourself.
  • #21,035
  • Jan 1, 2011 2:44pm Jan 1, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting fullperson
My question is basically: If daily trend says down, and 5min flow says up. What is my directional bias? 5min (now)? Or with daily (big ships)?

Maybe I should take trades only when 5min flow is in the direction of the daily...
Basically I would agree with that statement.
But keep in mind, that a change in trend always starts on the lower TF's.
So I always would check for reversal patterns on M15, H1, H4.
If such a pattern shows up on M15 I would take it as a headsup warning and reduce my skewing/agressivity. When it gets confirmed on H1 too, I would be even more careful. I always check the terrain then, to get an idea, if the impulsive move with good momentum could be a preindication of a change in trend already ...
For me the "directional bias" is only of relevanz in the early stages of my trading day. The longer I'm participating in the market, the more the feeling for momentum and fading dynamic takes the lead in my directional decision making. Seeing how sellers and buyers do behave and fight each other (PA) is my "radar" then ...

CU,
Niels
  • #21,036
  • Jan 1, 2011 2:50pm Jan 1, 2011 2:50pm
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year from sunny Dubai.
  • #21,037
  • Jan 1, 2011 2:57pm Jan 1, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting Zoran
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year from sunny Dubai.
Dubai?

Happy New Years to you too!
  • #21,038
  • Jan 1, 2011 4:00pm Jan 1, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting fti
Life is a mystery.
Still waiting for Christ come back to tell me what this all about.
Growing up in the Holly land, I saw many posters everywhere claiming that the Messiah is here. Recently I visited there and saw some of the old ones together with some new ones claiming the same thing. Maybe he is already here.

Quoting fti
I had worked so hard in my career , i guess time to relax now.
I also worked hard and that bought me a window of time to spend with my new born daughter and learn the art of trading. Soon I will have to go back and work more even harder.

Quoting fti
Being not a saint, I try do nobody and nothing any harm. But even then some actions harm others, mostly indirectly. like trading & eating.
For every action there is a reaction.
You do more than everybody else here in FF. You teach, you share your knowledge, and you guide us. You cut through the flesh when a surgery is needed. You are a teacher – and a very good one if not the best
From what I read, you had some very good teachers yourself (good for us).
If any harm is done, rest assures it’s the fault of the student only. One cannot accept things blindly (in trading) and need to test himself, and one cannot learn how to swim without going in the water.

Quoting fti
“i had in my lifetime seen what the scorpions of ego, greed & fear can do.
the fires from rage and blind cockyness, i had seen how it destroyed some of my friends. When they surface in me, I tend withdraw back and be spectator to carry me thru unharmed.
It’s a great discipline I must learn and master.

Quoting fti
But really life is still a mystery
One member in FF has this as his signature:
Mystery Is the Final Product of Ignorance.

Quoting fti
New Year resolution, trying clear some bad habit.
Perhaps quit smoking is one of them(I know Zoran tried hard to help)? For me it was as easy as not buying another pack of cigarettes. Of course if anything happen to me of the sort of troubles you are dealing with now, I will probably go insane, break, or go backpacking in India, but very doubtful to be as strong as you are. We all have different tolerance levels.

Quoting fti
A brick building stacked up one way the bricks make a cathedral, another way they become a gas station even a landfill sometimes.
Or bricks can be used as a weapon if thrown at you. Nevertheless, a brick is a brick.

Quoting fti
Nevertheless Que sera sera
Whatever will be will be. Yes. Funny, when I hit a wall and more knowledge was needed, I turned to music and through music I have found your wonderful thread.
The music shared here is priceless. Most of it I had never heard of.
Music is your only friend – until the end (Doors).

Inserted Video
  • #21,039
  • Jan 1, 2011 4:06pm Jan 1, 2011 4:06pm
So then fti's MO is by in large trend following-aka, trading when 5min aligns with daily. Meanwhile, we watch shorter TF's for possibility of an ending trend (I find the 3K spinoff on the 5min works well)

However, we are allowed to trade the retraces of the daily trend (in which our 5min is not aligned w/ daily) as long as we watch our aggression and prepare for re-alignment (watching sign on 15min or 1hr 4hr)

Does my interpretation of his MO sound right?
  • #21,040
  • Jan 1, 2011 9:37pm Jan 1, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
May your coming year be filled with magic and dreams and good madness. I hope you read some fine books and kiss someone who thinks you're wonderful, and don't forget to make some art -- write or draw or build or sing or live as only you can. And I hope, somewhere in the next year, you surprise yourself.
lovely thoughts and wishes.
yeah will be the goals , when these dust settles.
2 nd winds.

regards
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