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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #21,001
  • Dec 31, 2010 7:50pm Dec 31, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting mijamoto
Happy new years guys. It was tough for me this years eve as I ended alone, so I spent whole evening alone, saw few friends in city after midnight. All the best hope other had more fun
Happy New Year to you too Mijamoto.

FWIW...You are never alone .

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #21,002
  • Dec 31, 2010 8:39pm Dec 31, 2010 8:39pm
thanks gro, so it looks like G and U on my graph were in sync all along, just that Y is causing G & U to accelerate their move down. ok, 3K used for "general" directional bias. Pulse used for rest.

I like your interpretation of time window, but I hear many definitions of it, so I am not sure. By your definition, time window is a window of opportunity made by time.

The general belief seems to be, when correction exists, to be nimble and limit your exposures. Meanwhile, watch the movements of the 5min to choose direction.

I am thinking if a very long correction exists (for days), switch over to 1Hr charts for direction?
  • #21,003
  • Edited Jan 1, 2011 1:04am Dec 31, 2010 11:56pm | Edited Jan 1, 2011 1:04am
Quoting fxtsun
Happy New Year to fti and all the dancers!

So many great things shared in this thread, great music, philosophy, religion, mysticism, politics, poeticism, romanticism, skepticism (see more words end with “cism” here: http://www.morewords.com/ends-with/cism/).

How can we learn everything? Not enough time.
Noah lived 950 years. That is a little bit better but still not enough.
There is a lot going on. What do we see? What do we know?...
New Time New Day.
hi,fxtsun

Life is a mystery.
Still waiting for Christ come back to tell me what this all about.
So meantime I try have fun with life.
I had worked so hard in my career , i guess time to relax now. Need gracefully surrender, things of youth..

Being not a saint, I try do nobody and nothing any harm. But even then some actions harm others, mostly indirectly. like trading & eating.
Being a scout, i find much peace with nature,and my honour incites me do the scalf knot thingy daily. good deeds everyday as life allows.

i had in my lifetime seen what the scorpions of ego, greed & fear can do.
the fires from rage and blind cockyness, i had seen how it destroyed some of my friends. When they surface in me, I tend withdraw back and be spectator to carry me thru unharmed.

But really life is still a mystery, so just like you, what the heck do I know?

New Year resolution, trying clear some bad habit. and very painful castle clearing and cutting losses of decades old positions.

regards

researching and reinventing the wheel, sometimes is good thing.
and i remind the over zealous again.

A brick building stacked up one way the bricks make a cathedral, another way they become a gas station even a landfill sometimes.

Nevertheless Que sera sera

Inserted Video


Most things in life are near equilibrium, or they cease to exist over time. All things can be tweaked and when tweaked, something gains and something gives. I tend favour small incremental tweaks, if need be.
If you introduce a a whole OS change, debugging it may just kill. Beaware.
Whats happeing in the economic scene is already good example.
Strong medicine's ,ostly do more harm than Good.
  • #21,004
  • Jan 1, 2011 3:47am Jan 1, 2011 3:47am
Quoting fullperson
thanks gro, so it looks like G and U on my graph were in sync all along, just that Y is causing G & U to accelerate their move down. ok, 3K used for "general" directional bias. Pulse used for rest.

I like your interpretation of time window, but I hear many definitions of it, so I am not sure. By your definition, time window is a window of opportunity made by time.

The general belief seems to be, when correction exists, to be nimble and limit your exposures. Meanwhile, watch the movements of the 5min to choose direction.

I am thinking...
Analyze of the bird's eye, and traded in the now ...
  • #21,005
  • Jan 1, 2011 4:06am Jan 1, 2011 4:06am
Yes Gro, makes sense. The issue I am having right now is I know with good precision whether the impulse is about to begin or end. I have a harder time knowing which direction it will go. I was hoping that romancing the 3k would provide me a good bias, but I see that it is only a "birds eye view". I need to train myself in the "now" to find directional bias.

This will be harder to determine directional bias on 5min...I will use higher high/lower low as my general definition of trend.

Is it a good idea to practice EU pulse far a while without romance for directional bias? Just to get a feel of the naked pulse. See if the price can give me direction-strengthen my mentality. After that I add on 3k? (brick by brick builds a cathedral)
  • #21,006
  • Jan 1, 2011 4:28am Jan 1, 2011 4:28am
Dear Fti and Friends! I wish you all the best in the New Year 2011. Great health, luck, lot of success in all you do. Thank you all for participating on this great thread. The best thread of the Universe. God Bless. František Šnejdar
  • #21,007
  • Jan 1, 2011 5:12am Jan 1, 2011 5:12am
Quoting fullperson
Yes Gro, makes sense. The issue I am having right now is I know with good precision whether the impulse is about to begin or end. I have a harder time knowing which direction it will go. I was hoping that romancing the 3k would provide me a good bias, but I see that it is only a "birds eye view". I need to train myself in the "now" to find directional bias.

This will be harder to determine directional bias on 5min...I will use higher high/lower low as my general definition of trend.

Is it a good idea to practice EU pulse far a while without...
I think a little tangled,
"birds eye view" = higher time frame for bias ... you never know when it will kick in (big ships)
"now" = lower timeframe, get into the flow (in time window)
3kgds keeps you in the flow and save you many times ...
what is unclear?
  • #21,008
  • Jan 1, 2011 5:18am Jan 1, 2011 5:18am
Quoting fti
New Time New Day.
hi,fxtsun

Life is a mystery.
Still waiting for Christ come back to tell me what this all about.
So meantime I try have fun with life.
I had worked so hard in my career , i guess time to relax now. Need gracefully surrender, things of youth..

Being not a saint, I try do nobody and nothing any harm. But even then some actions harm others, mostly indirectly. like trading & eating.
Being a scout, i find much peace with nature,and my honour incites me do the scalf knot thingy daily. good deeds everyday as life allows.

i...
Hi fti

I would like to believe it whistle will help me ...

Rgs
  • #21,009
  • Jan 1, 2011 6:22am Jan 1, 2011 6:22am
Quoting fti

But really life is still a mystery...
Perhaps the Mystery can never be 'understood' or correctly represented by the conceptual content of Awareness?

The Awareness that you are watches silently as the mind chases its tail. You are out of the maelstrom as soon as you realise that you were never in it.

This is just intended as a suggestion for investigation and I make no claims at all.
  • #21,010
  • Jan 1, 2011 6:25am Jan 1, 2011 6:25am
My question is basically: If daily trend says down, and 5min flow says up. What is my directional bias? 5min (now)? Or with daily (big ships)?

Maybe I should take trades only when 5min flow is in the direction of the daily...
  • #21,011
  • Jan 1, 2011 6:38am Jan 1, 2011 6:38am
Quoting fullperson
I have a harder time knowing which direction it will go. I was hoping that romancing the 3k would provide me a good bias, but I see that it is only a "birds eye view". I need to train myself in the "now" to find directional bias.....Is it a good idea to practice EU pulse far a while without romance for directional bias? Just to get a feel of the naked pulse.
Doesn't it amount to the same thing? As far as I understand it we need to 'sense' the current sentiment driving the market, but this appears as cycles within cycles.

Fti mentions somewhere about a 'rubber-band' effect as the short-term form snaps back in line with HTF sentiment. Something to do with the operation of MM's balancing their books. I'm groping in the dark a little bit here.

Also, it might be better to stick with the 3K layout that Fti gave us (see pic), otherwise why not just use the doller index? I find it a bit confusing myself at the moment, but I am watching the 3K day-to-day to see if I can learn to sense the relationships.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,012
  • Jan 1, 2011 6:46am Jan 1, 2011 6:46am
Quoting fullperson
My question is basically: If daily trend says down, and 5min flow says up. What is my directional bias? 5min (now)? Or with daily (big ships)?

Maybe I should take trades only when 5min flow is in the direction of the daily...
Yes
You should always have to go with "big ships", you never know when it will kick in.3kgds rotation be reported several times in advance.
  • #21,013
  • Jan 1, 2011 6:52am Jan 1, 2011 6:52am
Quoting fullperson

Maybe I should take trades only when 5min flow is in the direction of the daily...
  • #21,014
  • Jan 1, 2011 7:01am Jan 1, 2011 7:01am
Quoting Vorbis
Doesn't it amount to the same thing? As far as I understand it we need to 'sense' the current sentiment driving the market, but this appears as cycles within cycles.

Fti mentions somewhere about a 'rubber-band' effect as the short-term form snaps back in line with HTF sentiment. Something to do with the operation of MM's balancing their books. I'm groping in the dark a little bit here.

Also, it might be better to stick with the 3K layout that Fti gave us (see pic), otherwise why not just use the doller index? I find it a bit confusing myself at...
cycles within cycles = 'rubber-band' effect (visual ATR)
MM = average volatility a single currency pair
3kgds = 3 time zones, relationship 3kingdoms ...
  • #21,015
  • Jan 1, 2011 7:15am Jan 1, 2011 7:15am
I recently finished reading through this thread, taking notes along the way and this is my understanding so far.

You must go with the current flow until it changes. As soon as you try to predict what is going to happen in advance, whether that is 5 days or 5 mins, you are clouding your vision with illusions. The problem is that you will predict "correctly" about 50% of the time and this will create the illusion that there is some value to your prediction and re-inforce a bad habit. The only real guide available is the current state of sentiment which can be read by the speed and extent of the impulse moves. Form of 5 Min. should align with sentiment read of 3 Kingdoms, otherwise be suspicious.

Your scout will confirm or refute your reading of current sentiment. If he gives you confirmation you skew in an attacking position using the fibo position sizing adjusted according to volatility. You skew out the same way you entered when the impulse loses momentum (Not 100% sure on exit, possible ABC, ABCDE waves but I may be being too rigid). Larger positions (big guns) should not be left long on the field in case they become vulnerable.

If the scout ends up in enemy territory you check the 3K to ensure that you have not inadvertantly got him caught on wrong side of dominant trend. If he is, he is sacrificed. If you are confident that the trend read is correct, then the timing of entry was off and a rescue attempt can be made with a defensive skew.

I intend to re-read all my notes over the weekend and begin practicing real-time on demo on monday. Initially I will be using a 1-2-2 attack sequence and a 1-5 defence sequence. I will stick with these until I have accumulated some experience.

Comments welcome.
  • #21,016
  • Jan 1, 2011 7:23am Jan 1, 2011 7:23am
Quoting Gro
cycles within cycles = 'rubber-band' effect (visual ATR)
MM = average volatility a single currency pair
3kgds = 3 time zones, relationship 3kingdoms ...
I see the rubber-band effect as the LTF re-aligning with the dominant trend.

By MM I mean Market Makers, taking the other side of our trades and adjusting their books according to their own bias.

The 3Kgds I thought referred to the relationship between the majors and the USD dollar rather than the 3 TF's? As in current USD sentiment (Bull or Bear) and how the EUR, GBP and JPY are relating to each other in light of that. So if they are in sync. then USD bias can be trusted. I am a bit unsure on this point.
  • #21,017
  • Jan 1, 2011 7:27am Jan 1, 2011 7:27am
Quoting Vorbis
I see the rubber-band effect as the LTF re-aligning with the dominant trend.

By MM I mean Market Makers, taking the other side of our trades and adjusting their books according to their own bias.

The 3Kgds I thought referred to the relationship between the majors and the USD dollar rather than the 3 TF's? As in current USD sentiment (Bull or Bear) and how the EUR, GBP and JPY are relating to each other in light of that. So if they are in sync. then USD bias can be trusted. I am a bit unsure on this point.
1,2,2 ???
Imho you try to be defensive, but that attack is not imho!
  • #21,018
  • Edited 8:00am Jan 1, 2011 7:31am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting Vorbis
I recently finished reading through this thread, taking notes along the way and this is my understanding so far....
You think that you are well?
and rescue 1,1,2,3 ... 1-5 is big for starters and it is a little variations.
attack no 1,2,2 ... but 1,1,2
you understand why?
  • #21,019
  • Jan 1, 2011 7:35am Jan 1, 2011 7:35am
Let me repead a pic by Hcong
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  • #21,020
  • Edited 7:48am Jan 1, 2011 7:38am | Edited 7:48am
And by Auxesis. regards

(Fana) : Observation : Some brokers can have open both, sell and buy positions(at the same time). Some not. Guess, if it is possible to do the same with broker which doesnt alow open both buy and sell.

Yes - true
No
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