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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,681
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:42pm Dec 28, 2010 2:42pm
Short bias pipped green today.

4H play: possible ascending triangle in down trend.
last 3 candles Hi 0017 Buy stop entry 0022 target 0070

OR sell stop entry 0.9975 (Dec 14 lo)

Dly tf: triangle was broken to downside;my bias -bearish ( appears more probable).
  • #3,682
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:49pm Dec 28, 2010 2:49pm
No triangle has been broken yet.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=359
  • #3,683
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:07pm Dec 28, 2010 3:07pm
Beaver looks like good scalpin' either direction on 15m or H tf's

Got shorts on G/Cad & E/Cad. H 4H & D ema's down.

Watching 3103 ( Sept 9 lo) if good break will add to short E/Cad pos'ns.
  • #3,684
  • Edited 3:26pm Dec 28, 2010 3:14pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting jack.canadia
No triangle has been broken yet.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=359

Nov 30-Dec 20 down tl
Dec 2-24 up tl

extend tl's outward

4H: up TL (Dec 3-8gmt to 24th-12 gmt) broken. Triangle with down TL (Nov 30- 12gmt to Dec 20-12gmt)
  • #3,685
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:15pm Dec 29, 2010 8:15pm
Hi Jack: great chart. Sure wish I knew how to place my charts on this thread.

I'm wondering if the MacD div maybe neutralization (just a different perspective).

Been a Loonie (i.e, U/Cad) bear this year and see no reason to change.

Position for 2011: bearish

In April the U/Cad went up. The Oz went down. Today, the OZ hit a 28 year high! The Kiwi has risen all week. Loonie is com.doll- ergo ( in a just world) U/Cad should close < then parity.

Just my point of view.

Happy New Year & a green pips one for all
  • #3,686
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:51pm Dec 29, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting Scarecru
Hi Jack: great chart. Sure wish I knew how to place my charts on this thread.

I'm wondering if the MacD div maybe neutralization (just a different perspective).

Been a Loonie (i.e, U/Cad) bear this year and see no reason to change.

Position for 2011: bearish

In April the U/Cad went up. The Oz went down. Today, the OZ hit a 28 year high! The Kiwi has risen all week. Loonie is com.doll- ergo ( in a just world) U/Cad should close < then parity.

Just my point of view.

Happy New Year & a green pips one for all
It's a tough call both ways right now to be honest. Aussie did make a new high, and also is diverging on the weekly chart MACD... so I am looking to take a low risk short to end out the year, hopefully to catch profit taking from all the longs.

For UCAD, spikes above parity have been met with selling however it can't seem to take out 0.9973 ..

I don't really play correlations. I just take what the chart gives me, hence why I've been taking longs near parity to catch sharp bounces, and until I get a stop taken out I'll continue. On a fundamental scale though, I have no idea where these pairs are going lol.
  • #3,687
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:35pm Dec 30, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting jack.canadia
It's a tough call both ways right now to be honest. Aussie did make a new high, and also is diverging on the weekly chart MACD... so I am looking to take a low risk short to end out the year, hopefully to catch profit taking from all the longs.

For UCAD, spikes above parity have been met with selling however it can't seem to take out 0.9973 ..

I don't really play correlations. I just take what the chart gives me, hence why I've been taking longs near parity to catch sharp bounces, and until I get a stop taken out I'll continue. On a fundamental...
Personally, I'm not too concerned, the last 2 - 2 1/2 weeks has been low holiday volume. Big money driving the price lower to get in at a discount IMO, something like 75% of retail traders are long on the loonie, so I would expect them to run the stops before a move back up.

Wait and see I suppose. I'm holding long and will double up my longs every 100 pips south it goes.
  • #3,688
  • Dec 30, 2010 5:43pm Dec 30, 2010 5:43pm
Hi Jack & Cdawg: I appreciate the posts (there was a wealth of info in them for me). Important to receive other views in order to re-evaluate one's position.

My take re: fundamentals- FUBAR

KIWI has been a phoenix this week-WHY?

OZ dropped sltly.

LOONIE trended water.

Just gonna watch charts.

May you be pip positive in 2011
  • #3,689
  • Dec 30, 2010 6:03pm Dec 30, 2010 6:03pm
One more dive down for US CAD, and then the traders are signaling that its going to take your breath away, UP.
  • #3,690
  • Dec 31, 2010 6:18am Dec 31, 2010 6:18am
Quoting Cdawg
Personally, I'm not too concerned, the last 2 - 2 1/2 weeks has been low holiday volume. Big money driving the price lower to get in at a discount IMO, something like 75% of retail traders are long on the loonie, so I would expect them to run the stops before a move back up.

Wait and see I suppose. I'm holding long and will double up my longs every 100 pips south it goes.
were u e one that say u keep buying usd.. do u take tp? 100 pips?

yes it has being a low volume market.. nt sure if it is a fake down move.. but e downmove followed by up shows that buyers are still ard
  • #3,691
  • Dec 31, 2010 9:56am Dec 31, 2010 9:56am
Quoting yuan83
were u e one that say u keep buying usd.. do u take tp? 100 pips?

yes it has being a low volume market.. nt sure if it is a fake down move.. but e downmove followed by up shows that buyers are still ard
No one can ever really be sure if it is a fake down move or not, you just have to trade your system and your beliefs using proper MM.

One point is that price can only go down on low volume. With the absence of volume in the market, I see this as a market manipulation driving the price lower. Of course I could be wrong, but I don't believe I am and if I am wrong, then my SL will get checked.

I will TP at certain levels, and I partially close trades as well.

All the best to you guys in the new year!!!!
  • #3,692
  • Dec 31, 2010 12:05pm Dec 31, 2010 12:05pm
Huge long play coming in two weeks or less. Till then lower overall.
  • #3,693
  • Dec 31, 2010 6:06pm Dec 31, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting Cdawg
No one can ever really be sure if it is a fake down move or not, you just have to trade your system and your beliefs using proper MM.

One point is that price can only go down on low volume. With the absence of volume in the market, I see this as a market manipulation driving the price lower. Of course I could be wrong, but I don't believe I am and if I am wrong, then my SL will get checked.

I will TP at certain levels, and I partially close trades as well.

All the best to you guys in the new year!!!!
i see.. hmm. but some tots. because overall trend is down..so i was thinking, if it goes lower on low volume, when it's high volume, wun it go even lower?

anw o u do have SL.. from the way you put, I tot you dun...

anw China PMI is bad, wonder how will market react on mon..

are u a fundamentalist or TA?

anw happy 2011 to u too!
  • #3,694
  • Jan 2, 2011 10:14pm Jan 2, 2011 10:14pm
it seems that we could have an big brkout downside.

usdcad was in the range for the last 18 months and we have an triangle for the last 8 months.

on friday and today we have an brkout.

possible support could be somwhere 200 pips lower, but i dont belive for that could hold.
real target would be lows from year 2007, that is 900 pips lower.

so,

i am short (big position) at 0,9925, SL 0,9975, TP1 0,9700, TP2 0,9000.
  • #3,695
  • Jan 2, 2011 10:31pm Jan 2, 2011 10:31pm
Hey,

I don't think the dips we are having is a result of trading. My best guess is that it is the American tourists that are spending mostly in Canada and elsewhere that is dropping the US dollar. I think during this week we will have a rebound (if even temporary) towards parity and perhaps 1.01. Canadians may also see the low prices as an opportunity to start ordering US products.

Would like to know your thoughts on this.

-Reza
  • #3,696
  • Jan 3, 2011 11:39am Jan 3, 2011 11:39am
Had an up TL break (Dec 15-24) break that showed TPP @9877.
Should reach it tonight Then mayhaps; further short opp.

US data last week: risk-on or further US$ weakness?

Watching Beaver on Dtf: the down TL (Dec 15-29) broken with TPP @84.21. RSI >50 & it bounced off 50% fib (Oct 20-Dec 15).

But 82.50 resistance (top of last week's channel) as well as extension of a prior up TL (Nov 30-Dec 21). Figure if this resist pt taken out then Risk-on & loonie (U/Cad)further short & buy Beaver.

Just points I be watching PA don't always listen to me
  • #3,697
  • Jan 3, 2011 6:41pm Jan 3, 2011 6:41pm
if there is anything we could say about reversal, this chart should be self-explanatory. This pair is slowly clawing back to previous-holiday support 0.998 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #3,698
  • Jan 4, 2011 6:46pm Jan 4, 2011 6:46pm
If 1.0010 break, I be long to 1.0075

OZ down & KIWI down;U/CAD up. Is this posturing for NFP Fri

Re: Loonie - parity is now resistance.
  • #3,699
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:02pm Jan 5, 2011 7:02pm
Still bear, but await a retrace if/when parity broken.

Cad/Y (Beaver) long to 84.21 made green pips today

Perusing news sheets today & negative stuff re:OZ.

Looked @ OZ/CAD D chart.
Up tl (Dec 15-28) break w TPP 9862.
Up tl (Dec 2-15) break w TPP 9689.

Let's draw fib (Aug 18 - Nov 4).

9862 is nearing 38% & 9689 is nearing 50%.

Just some stuff that I be watching & maybe trading.
  • #3,700
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:20pm Jan 6, 2011 5:20pm
NFP tomorrow so I be on the sidelines 'til smoke has cleared.

Oz/Cad short still good.

Looked @ E/Cad Dtf. 3 up TLs were violated.

PA has broke through the 62% fib down (6/10- 10/25)

1.2650
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