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vsa with Malcolm

  • #8,381
  • Edited 4:08pm Dec 29, 2010 3:57pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
never
Gavin finally came around to my way of thinking on this. I wish I could point to the exact webinar.

No Damand:

1. Narrow range
2. Makes a higher high than the previous bar. This is key.
3. Does not make a lower low than the previous bar.
4. Volume less than the previous two intervals.
5. Background weakness.

Under these conditions, the No Demand can close down. The key is the higher high showing rejection by closing off of said high. The fact that it does not make a lower low, tells us there was not a lot of buying comming in either.

sorry, I keep thinking of new things to say.

We know that there are hidden Tests (up close) and hidden Up Thrusts (down close), it is therefore reasonable to speculate that there would be hidden No Demands (down close).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #8,382
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:14pm Dec 29, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting HiddenGap
...
We know that there are hidden Tests (up close) and hidden Up Thrusts (down close), it is therefore reasonable to speculate that there would be hidden No Demands (down close).
It can be found near resistance and might be also hidden NS near support...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #8,383
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:20pm Dec 29, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Gavin finally came around to my way of thinking on this. I wish I could point to the exact webinar.

No Damand:

1. Narrow range
2. Makes a higher high than the previous bar. This is key.
3. Does not make a lower low than the previous bar.
4. Volume less than the previous two intervals.
5. Background weakness.

Under these conditions, the No Demand can close down. The key is the higher high showing rejection by closing off of said high. The fact that it does not make a lower low, tells us there was not a lot of buying comming in either....
We will have to agree to differ here HG. That is a NS bar which in the right situation, has the same meaning as a ND bar. The more advanced VSAers out there such as yourself can make these judgements about the sentiment of the bars as they appear but the masses must stick to the correct technical definitions or they will never reach your level of understanding.

You and I both agree that your definition here is correct but, in VSA as defined by Tom, there is only 1 time when a down bar can be a ND.


And tgwhbb knows when that is. Well done.
  • #8,384
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:22pm Dec 29, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting mima
It can be found near resistance and might be also hidden NS near support...
Nope, not talking about HIDDEN NDs......although I do like the notion!!
  • #8,385
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:27pm Dec 29, 2010 4:27pm
Dont forget to PM the answer instead of posting it guys so that others can have a go
  • #8,386
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:37pm Dec 29, 2010 4:37pm
got to sleep now. I'll pick up any PMs in a few hours and post the answer with chart then.

  • #8,387
  • Dec 29, 2010 5:23pm Dec 29, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting Intel
Oh my tutor.......zero points!!!!
Intel : When can a ND come as a down bar?

No demand:
professional traders will not support a rally if they observe background weakness.

A no demand bar is a narrow spread bar , on low volume , that closes in its middle or low

So in theory your question of when can a no demand bar come as a down bar would be after a sign of weakness has already been seen in the back ground indicating a market top. We could have a low volume up bar closing in lows. However tradeguider rarely picks up any bar like this as a true no demand , more like an upthrust. Other than that whatever bar you are thinking of as being ' no demand' is not a no demand bar if it is a down bar.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #8,388
  • Dec 29, 2010 5:26pm Dec 29, 2010 5:26pm
also will depend where Intels 'no demand bar closing as down bar' shows up in a chart , if in an uptrend with strength behind us then it is not strictly a no demand bar , as to really conform to what a no demand bar is we should be seeing weakness not strength in the background

Quoting malcolmb14
Intel : When can a ND come as a down bar?

No demand:
professional traders will not support a rally if they observe background weakness.

A no demand bar is a narrow spread bar , on low volume , that closes in its middle or low

So in theory your question of when can a no demand bar come as a down bar would be after a sign of weakness has already been seen in the back ground indicating a market top. We could have a low volume up bar closing in lows. However tradeguider rarely picks up any bar like this as a true no demand , more like an upthrust....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #8,389
  • Dec 29, 2010 5:36pm Dec 29, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
also will depend where Intels 'no demand bar closing as down bar' shows up in a chart , if in an uptrend with strength behind us then it is not strictly a no demand bar , as to really conform to what a no demand bar is we should be seeing weakness not strength in the background
Hey Malc, about how many instances do you typically look for before you classify it's background strength/weakness. Any systematic approach or is it just general eyeballing?
  • #8,390
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:34pm Dec 29, 2010 7:34pm
First I want to say this is a great exercise/discussion we are having. I love it and hope everyone else is enjoying it as much as I am.

Now, we know from the Bible (Master the Markets/Undeclared Secrets....) that the Smart Money is in competition with themselves as well as with those who are skilled/lucky enough to be able to read a chart.

So how does one element of the Smart Money attempt to hide its real intentions from other elements of the Smart Money or from those that can read a chart? They do the opposite of the norm. That is to say, we know that when weakness appears, it appears on up bars and when strength appears, it appears on down bars. So the Smart money does the opposite which give us an Up Thrust that closes down ( we term a hidden Up Thrust) or a Test that closes up (we term a Hidden Test).

Let's think about No Demands . There are really only three ways to mislead/hide their true intentions with No Demand.

1. The volume : by definition the volume must be less than the previous two bars/candles so there is not really anything they can do here. Some advanced VSAers might note that they can keep the volume equal. So that the volume is less than the previous bar but equal to the bar before that. Or the volume on the bar in question could be equal to the previous bar and the volume on these two bars could be less then the third bar. We can ignore all the permutations here and simply state that volume need be less than the previous two. Therefore, there really is not a way to "hide" a No Demand bar by manipulating the volume.

2. The close within the range. Well, by definition an close on the middle or high makes the bar No Demand. Thus the close would need to be on or near the low. But this does not work. If the close is on the low of the bar, we must assume that there is no demand because the close is on the low and not near the high (we are assuming low volume). An up close on low volume closing near the low must still be obvious weakness. Remember, the close is the last element of the bar. If it is near the low, then the bears must have been in charge at the end of the bar's period. Here again, we find that the close within the range is not a good place to disguise intentions.

3. We are left with this. Go against our definitions and have weakness appear on a down bar. The best way to do this would be to use a "buying bar". That is, a bar that makes a higher high than the previous bar and not a lower low. Many traders view this bar as bullish. After all, it's making higher highs and we must be in an uptrend if we are making higher highs.
This is exactly what one element Smart Money wants. Weak holders and other elements of the Smart Money seeing a bullish sign via a higher high and not focusing on the weakness because the close is opposite of expectations for a No Demand bar.

Whilst they do not happen often, we must conclude that they do happen. After all, it's the only way to not telegraph true intent.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #8,391
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:41pm Dec 29, 2010 10:41pm
Hi everyone,

I have been following this thread for sometime now,and have a question on trading with trend. I see the authority in this thread, meaning Mal, HG & Intel have difference take on this issue. It would be very helpful if anyone could come out and make their stand on this issue - tredning with trend.

Mal's avocate hull. Dont take trade against the hull, follow the hull have help him not taking many lossing trades but at time, he also break his own rule and long when hull still show red or short when hull show green. My guess is one can only do this when one has perfect a techqiue & have develop the feel for the market & reading the chart.

HG's is extremely discipline.Stick to his own rule, not to trade against DBPL. HG's posting has always been very simply & easy to understand and very educational. Everyone love his posting. If i may ask, HG is trading on M5 time frame, when you see a trade setup to long and your DBPL turn blue in M5 time frame, do you also have to make sure the next higher time frame DBPL also turn blue before enter long ? If so, which higher time frame usually you keep your eyes on ?

Intel do not consider either hull or DBPL and strickly follow TW, a pure VSA trading style.

I believe there are many successful traders, F451, taomql4, wh1zz0 and many others in this thread has their own view as far as following hull is concerned. Would love to hear from everyone.

It will be very beneficial to myself to hear from everyone view & I beleive so to many other new traders who trying very hard to learn VSA & trading with trend.
  • #8,392
  • Dec 29, 2010 11:51pm Dec 29, 2010 11:51pm
I have post a H1 on GBPJPY. Though this can attribute to strength in the background. Question is when to enter, the hull in h1 is red, do we wait for hull to turn green in h1 before looking for test bar with low vol or if we see a test bar with low vol even the hull still red in h1, we go long ?
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  • #8,393
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:27am Dec 30, 2010 2:27am
Quoting Intel
Quiz time!!!!!!

Dont forget, PM me the answer so others can have a go.

ND.....a narrow spread up bar closing well off the high on low volume.

So the question is:-

When can a ND come as a down bar?
Ok, not many answers from the troops but, it's got Mal, HG and myself discussing it so it must at least, be a good question

tgwhbb gave the only correct answer so well done to him......her........whatever.

Q. When can a ND come as a down bar?
A. When it comes immediately after a gap up.

This is because, when we apply VSA to a chart, we ignore the open of the bar. So in order to define an up bar in VSA terms it is a bar which closes higher than the close of the previouse bar.

Bar1 close = 100
Bar2 open = 110
Bar2 close = 107
Bar2 spread = 5

In the above case, Bar2 is a down bar which has a close higher than the close of the previous bar.......the basis of a ND!

A chart just for an example of the principle
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  • #8,394
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:28am Dec 30, 2010 2:28am
one of the things which is pretty important to me, is the concept of trigger numbers which often act as precise takeoff point after sm has shwon their hands, therefor offering pretty good entry spots during markups/shakeout and so beeing able to find safe entries for big positions.

watch current eu level today for reaction- 3235
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,395
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:34am Dec 30, 2010 2:34am
Quoting malcolmb14
following along on this one today as it is in tune wtih es

es is caught in channel 1108 to 1100. If 1109 / 1110 is taken out then this will be bullish and move into 1125.

so far looking for double top to form 79 on aj now

along side aj I watch a 10 min chart es . If that gives me a no demand at 1108 to 1109 I will hit aj on a sell

Attachment
Looking at the chart, long is preferred as compared to short. The background action is strong, so a retracement to ard 78.51 level and if buying interest is ard there, look for long instead.
  • #8,396
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:35am Dec 30, 2010 2:35am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
one of the things which is pretty important to me, is the concept of trigger numbers which often act as precise takeoff point after sm has shwon their hands, therefor offering pretty good entry spots during markups/shakeout and so beeing able to find safe entries for big positions.

watch current eu level today for reaction- 3235
I will watch with interest thanks. HG uses trigger points in this way also.
  • #8,397
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:35am Dec 30, 2010 2:35am
adding to the previous post. see yesterday, the level which intel mentioned was one of those levels which has been gracefully ignored by me due to the overall picture.

vol surge, shakeout below that level, market coming back twice and taking off from there. those levels are pretty accurate.

i added a simple wave count to the picture. you dont need to make alliot wave complicated but a fact is, markets tend to move in 5 waves. see how easily it can be spotted on the 10 minute chart.

regularly the 5th wave/ push down is the biggest push and marks the end. you can also get a good clue of supply/demand situation if you pay attention to the size of the upwaves/downwaves. the whole move down itr was pretty textbook in symmetry. after such a move we would liek to see a bigger wave/push up, preferably through R, followed by a tinier wave down, like it happened, telling us, that there was a change in supply/demand situation.
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  • #8,398
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:37am Dec 30, 2010 2:37am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
one of the things which is pretty important to me, is the concept of trigger numbers which often act as precise takeoff point after sm has shwon their hands, therefor offering pretty good entry spots during markups/shakeout and so beeing able to find safe entries for big positions.

watch current eu level today for reaction- 3235
This looks like the market is coming down. Those high vol bar represents profits taken, so now watching at the action on the right, effort to go up is high but the result is weak.
  • #8,399
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:45am Dec 30, 2010 2:45am
patience, young jedi

since the upmove we are still making slightly higher lows, so no reason to bet yet. sm has to support lows on upmoves tostay in control of the move. i want to see an ut into 3260-3280 area or a decent push below 3220 to get a confirmation of supply being present.

Quoting ronaldksmmg
This looks like the market is coming down. Those high vol bar represents profits taken, so now watching at the action on the right, effort to go up is high but the result is weak.
  • #8,400
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:53am Dec 30, 2010 2:53am
Did anyone catch the GU M5 reversal setup just before LO? Shes a bute and I was fast asleep
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