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  • #221
  • Dec 24, 2010 11:23am Dec 24, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Ctic
Waiting for the break of this support, which is holding atm. May channel here for a bit, but have OCO short 1.3050 SL @ 1.3250
Hi Ctic

Good to see you here. I always enjoy and learn from your imput.

Have a great Holiday and prosperous 2011.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #222
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:48am Dec 25, 2010 9:48am
Quoting Rufus
Hi Ctic

Good to see you here. I always enjoy and learn from your imput.

Have a great Holiday and prosperous 2011.

Rufus
Rufus,

Thank you and I wish you a great Holiday and prosperous 2011 as well.
  • #223
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:48am Dec 28, 2010 9:48am
Quoting Ctic
May range here for a week or so... Also w/ the holidays here, it would make sense.
Been scalping this channel but haven't had the balls to go long
  • #224
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:17pm Dec 28, 2010 11:17pm
Originally Posted by Low http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I wonder about this too. Right now there's fantastic A/U carry trade. No brains required. But watching EU and GU unwind doesn't bode well for the future of all things positively correlated with US indices.




Yeah, it appears something big is going to happen and when it does.. hopefully your not in it the wrong way. Like you said, a blind man can trade A/U right now.. and N/U for that matter.

What I have found though is things that are correlated tend to move up (or down) to their major resistances or supports. Then they wait for the other pairs to catch up. The USD/CHF hit new 25 year lows this month... could be more that that is as far back as my charts go.. so like you said, things positively correlated with the US indicies are in deep shit.

Now with the E/U and G/U both dropping, suggests that Europe has bigger issues than the USA...Hard to believe.

I spoke with someone today that was actually saying they are trying to crash all the major currencies in order to establish a world currency. Not sure I really go with that, but hey anything is possible. Really from a commerical point of view that would be good.. Don't have to worry about fluctuactions. Problem is how do you establish how much each country gets and who is in charge of the printing of the currency....Things to ponder.

C.
  • #225
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:20pm Dec 28, 2010 11:20pm
Here is what bothers me though.. Here is a USD/CHF monthly chart. This has been on a nice bearish decline as well. So what does this suggest?

USD weakness...
CHF strength....

Gold has had strength which also suggests USD weakness....

But for us to have a decline in GBP/USD and EUR/USD... we need USD strength..

OR

larger GBP & EUR weakness.. which is really what we have had.

Notice on this chart how we are at the bottom of the channel..

Inverse relationship suggests if this bounces up, GBP moves down (though it doesn't always work that way.) I hate to play it long in this downtrend, but hate to play it short at the bottom of the channel.
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  • #226
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:24pm Dec 28, 2010 11:24pm
Quite possible we move towards the bottom of the triangle. Nice bearish engulfing, off top wall.
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  • #227
  • Dec 29, 2010 1:16am Dec 29, 2010 1:16am
Hi Citc

The GJ weekly is interesting. If it can fall through this floor I think it has 500 pips or so to go to retest the low.

I am sitting on my hands tonight. I am about to open my third beer and going to head to bed.

Trade safe

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #228
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:49pm Dec 29, 2010 10:49pm
Quoting Rufus
Hi Citc

The GJ weekly is interesting. If it can fall through this floor I think it has 500 pips or so to go to retest the low.

I am sitting on my hands tonight. I am about to open my third beer and going to head to bed.

Trade safe

Rufus
Hi Rufus,

I have been looking at the same chart for a while now and even the monthly chart. My monthly charts only go back to 1977 and it is at a point that if it breaks will be the lowest it has ever been. Personally, with the weakness that the Pound has we may see it break..and if it does we may see more than 500 pips. On the same sense, if it bounces up from this, we probably see 250.00 again, which is over 12000 pips. I think 2011 will be an interesting year to say the least.

I am trying to sit on my hands until the new year... Don't want to get into a trade I will regret.

Trade safe,

C.
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  • #229
  • Dec 30, 2010 3:53pm Dec 30, 2010 3:53pm
I usually like to do the opposite of what I hear out and about. If I know the majority of the people are believing something I like to go the other way. I do believe that in 2011 we may see the stock markets, gold, silver, oil etc.. increase a little suckering all the people into buying. Once they have enough of the little guys in, the markets will crash down.

One of my favorite quotes of all time is "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" Warren Buffet.

Right now I am starting to see people getting greedy.. Stocks rising, gold rising...Hell in the USA they have these cash for gold things everywhere..They are starting to buy up gold like crazy. Reminds me of the Real Estate boom I saw here in Florida back in 2003-2005.

Now lets look at time frame here.. Typically, not always this way but, when markets, gold, oil, etc.. rise it is becuase the dollar is getting weaker. When the dollar rises, these other things crash. The crap that the Fed government is doing takes time to move into effect. All these bills that Obama and crew are enacting won't have an immediate effect on the USA. But, in 5-10 years when our debt is 125%, we will have the USA debt crisis. Until then, DX may move up.

Thus, raise the dollar, crash the markets now....

Crash the dollar, raise the markets later....

The common people are starting to buy stocks so let them get in and then crash it. Then when the pull out their last pennies to save face and turn it into cash, crash the cash...raise the markets.

Sorry I blabbered on here, but I can go all day.

Happy New Year everyone,

C.
  • #230
  • Dec 31, 2010 9:43am Dec 31, 2010 9:43am
Quoting Ctic
Well so far so good.. 5469 trade closed for 40 pips. Play now (if I am going to play at all) is shorts at the top of the channel, If I feel risky longs at the bottom of the channel. Stops placed outside the master candle.

Will place short OCO order in @ 5345 SL @ 5500.
Well didn't expect this move on the last day of the year... Good thing this trade never got activated. Still climbing as I post this.. just went up another 15 pips so this may be a 300 pip day for the cable.
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  • #231
  • Jan 5, 2011 2:42pm Jan 5, 2011 2:42pm
hi Ctic . Just popped in to say hello and to get your thread on my subscribed list. C you soon. k
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #232
  • Jan 6, 2011 8:17pm Jan 6, 2011 8:17pm
Quoting Ctic
Waiting for the break of this support, which is holding atm. May channel here for a bit, but have OCO short 1.3050 SL @ 1.3250
This trade got activated today.. Lets see what happens w/ NFP coming up..

I also have G/U short 5550 SL @ 5680 moving into NFP and also my OCO is still active.
  • #233
  • Jan 6, 2011 8:18pm Jan 6, 2011 8:18pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
hi Ctic . Just popped in to say hello and to get your thread on my subscribed list. C you soon. k
Hey Kas,

Thanks for stopping in.. Trade safe going into NFP tomorrow.

C.
  • #234
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:31pm Jan 6, 2011 9:31pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=268054

That is a thought I had that I posted in the Cable forum. Correlation may be at hand and USD/CHF may be a good long play even though it is in a downtrend. Bullish engulfing weekly, back in channel, higher weekly high, and higher weekly low....hmmm

Only bad point, is that it could be the retrace on the monthly candle. The fibs shown here are the yearly fibs, possible retrace to 61.8, 50 or 38.2????

Lets see...check back in a few months and see what happened.
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  • #235
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:34pm Jan 6, 2011 9:34pm
Just for the record so when it happens later...

Bears Vs. Patriots in the Superbowl...

Bears win...25th anniversary of the 1985 Bears SuperBowl shuffle.
  • #236
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:14pm Jan 7, 2011 4:14pm
Here is two headlines I found for NFP today

FOREX-Dollar boosted vs euro as US unemployment dips


FOREX-Sterling recovered ground after U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointes


Now Let me ask you... How can the one news event that affects the USA...WEAKEN THE DOLLAR IN ONE MARKET, YET STRENGTHEN THE DOLLAR IN ANOTHER.

If a news event truely affected the direction things would go, wouldnt' the sterling decline AND the euro decline..or vice versa.

The news is already seen in the charts, the news is just the excuse they use so that journalists have something to write about and keep their jobs.

BOTTOM LINE: Don't trade the news people... trade the charts. The news is bullshit and doesn't matter.

Just my opinion.
  • #237
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:19pm Jan 7, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Ctic
This trade got activated today.. Lets see what happens w/ NFP coming up..

I also have G/U short 5550 SL @ 5680 moving into NFP and also my OCO is still active.
Well... NFP treated me good today...I guess...

G/U had a nice low of 5410 roughly right before the news... If I would of closed could of nailed 140 pips.. As it turns out I left trade open and now I am sitting at +7 pips.... woo hoo....

E/U on the otherhand dropped nicely and actually ended right at about the low of the day. +145...

SO overall... good day. Lets see what the weekend brings
  • #238
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:31pm Jan 7, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting Ctic
Here is two headlines I found for NFP today

FOREX-Dollar boosted vs euro as US unemployment dips


FOREX-Sterling recovered ground after U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointes


Now Let me ask you... How can the one news event that affects the USA...WEAKEN THE DOLLAR IN ONE MARKET, YET STRENGTHEN THE DOLLAR IN ANOTHER.

If a news event truely affected the direction things would go, wouldnt' the sterling decline AND the euro decline..or vice versa.

The news is already seen in the charts, the news is just...

I contend that a currency trader knows more about world economies and how they relate to currencies then most reporters. Most politicians too.

Also my opinion...

Have a great weekend

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #239
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:38pm Jan 7, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting Ctic

The news is already seen in the charts, the news is just the excuse they use so that journalists have something to write about and keep their jobs.

BOTTOM LINE: Don't trade the news people... trade the charts. The news is bullshit and doesn't matter.
My thoughts exactly.
  • #240
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:49pm Jan 7, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting sam0182
My thoughts exactly.
It is good to see others with the same thoughts... Not sure why everyone gets hyped up on it... unless if your a scalper I guess.. then your really gambling which direction it spikes. It is a gamble though.
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