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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,881
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:13am Dec 29, 2010 10:13am
Hi FullPerson,

sorry for my long dealy in answering your question.
Just had forgotten about it....

Regarding news:
Every morning before I start my trading I scan my news sources. Mostly DowJones NEws wire, Reuters and Bloomberg to get an idea what had happend while I was absent from the market. And I try to get an idea of the market sentiment. Third I try to gather some infos about accumulation of Buy/sell stop orders, option barriers and so on. From my point of view it belongs to the "knowing the terrain" complex ...

I compiled that info in a kind of morning briefing a while ago (was in the Thread "TAF Lounge" in the members area), but stopped it, because it took to much time to bring it in an understandable and easy to read format.

Have experimented with skype and NetViewer sessions in October and November this year. So I was able to share my screens with interested TAF Members. Have stopped that experiment for the time beeing, becasue my internet connection has a too small bandwith so send my screens in real time. I will continue that experiment in the next year as sonn as my home town has got a better interenet connection ...

But I have never had any chats about news preview or something like that.

However, when I restart the more interactive way of discussing with TAF members you are very welcome ...

CU,
Niels
  • #20,882
  • Edited 10:49am Dec 29, 2010 10:16am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting Vorbis
I thought the true average range referred to the relative length of the impulses or waves?

Or am I thinking of something else entirely?
Average True Range is an indicator of volatility.
"ATR is also mentioned as a Trading Range for the first time introduced by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems".
TR indicator measures the volatility is just what the market without having to show whether the market is growing or declining.
Wilder found that high ATR values often occur if the market is at its bottom followed by a panic sell-offs.
The low value of the ATR can often be found during the extended period when the market consolidates and goes to parties."

PS The average value of ATR is then calculated as an exponential moving average (EMA), the values "True Range"
  • #20,883
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:17am Dec 29, 2010 10:17am
Thanks Gro and auxesis.

Gro - is that a logarithmic chart you posted? A while ago I was trying to work out if it was possible to display one of those in metatrader but I couldn't so I guess not...
  • #20,884
  • Edited 2:47pm Dec 29, 2010 10:23am | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting fullperson
From my interpretation, true average was used simply as a gauge for if you had missed the bus, and if the move was too risky to enter. I'm not advocating indicators, but I'm going to suggest putting on a 12 and 48 sma on a 5 min chart to see what I'm talking about. You will see periods of when the 12 sma rockets off from the 48 (this is the volatility). When the 12 sma rests and hangs out there for a while, you have an opportunity to enter the market. So basically if you see an opportunity, but notice that the 12 sma has jumped away from the 48...
yes, indicator(MA) for the "course of events" (flow)...
  • #20,885
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:28am Dec 29, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Zoran
Hi MaMood, how do we check the results? It would be interesting to see how everyone is doing. Good luck, it seems this means a lot to you.

Hi Zoran,

Gro has send the link already.
To check for TAF members you should scan for
Eduardo,Herianto,Philip,Dika,Niels,Barbara and maybe some more, that I'm not aware of ...

CU,
Niels
  • #20,886
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:30am Dec 29, 2010 10:30am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks Gro and auxesis.

Gro - is that a logarithmic chart you posted? A while ago I was trying to work out if it was possible to display one of those in metatrader but I couldn't so I guess not...
I think this MetaTrader not know, Comparison Chart ...
  • #20,887
  • Edited 11:23am Dec 29, 2010 11:09am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting fullperson
speed of the move aka "vega" I believe is the term fti used
Actually, not 100% sure but I think that was "Sigma".


Edit. Just found this quote from Fti :

"Sigma is speed of move; you can determine that from the gradient or slope of price movement. The Vega is the volatility or rate of gyration of the market and you can determine that from the range (or Average true range) of the bars. Both can be guesstimated from the chart and must be read relative to its historical characteristics."
  • #20,888
  • Dec 29, 2010 11:11am Dec 29, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Gro
Average True Range....
Thanks for the response Gro, but I was thinking more of how Fti specifically uses the term rather than the textbook definition.
  • #20,889
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:17pm Dec 29, 2010 2:17pm
Thanks for the correction. Anyways, really nice move today, looks great on all 3k. May end soon though, 7 run bar max is close.
  • #20,890
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:51pm Dec 29, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Vorbis
Thanks for the response Gro, but I was thinking more of how Fti specifically uses the term rather than the textbook definition.
fti
"On your question about ATR,
Firstly I go on record to say that I have very high esteem for Curtis Faith
and most of Richard's turtles with the exception of the renegade.
The ATR introduced by W.Wilders is an important component
for determining market's volitility. This is a powerful tool for system styled traders.
But to use it as a decision tool, tends to create rigid mindset in decision making.
Having said that, I myself do use it in a different way,
In that it is visually indentifiable from bare bars in volitility reads as I have mentioned."
  • #20,891
  • Edited 3:16pm Dec 29, 2010 2:55pm | Edited 3:16pm
Living Earth Simulator (LES) anyone know?To process data on the activities that shape human society and natural forces that define the physical world
  • #20,892
  • Dec 29, 2010 3:21pm Dec 29, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting fullperson
Thanks for the correction. Anyways, really nice move today, looks great on all 3k.
This is FACT
Quote
May end soon though,

This is opinion
Quote
7 run bar max is close.
This is rigidity....


Chief correct me if i am wrong....

V
  • #20,893
  • Dec 29, 2010 3:57pm Dec 29, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Zoran,

Gro has send the link already.
To check for TAF members you should scan for
Eduardo,Herianto,Philip,Dika,Niels,Barbara and maybe some more, that I'm not aware of ...

CU,
Niels
Hi MaMood

I to cheer for all ... it seems the whole TAF in the competition
  • #20,894
  • Dec 29, 2010 5:19pm Dec 29, 2010 5:19pm
hello @ FTI and friends according to my trading experience based on taf thread

weekly and daily chart is mean nothing !!

is that right ??

thx for the response

regard
sumakianlee
  • #20,895
  • Dec 29, 2010 5:34pm Dec 29, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting sumakianlee
hello @ FTI and friends according to my trading experience based on taf thread

weekly and daily chart is mean nothing !!

is that right ??

thx for the response

regard
sumakianlee
Hi sumakianlee
and where to take the bias, bias for trend?!
Rgs
  • #20,896
  • Dec 29, 2010 6:26pm Dec 29, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting Gro
Hi sumakianlee
and where to take the bias, bias for trend?!
Rgs
as far as i remember fti say have no bias and be nimble ??

and bias for trend on hourly right ?

rgs
  • #20,897
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:24pm Dec 29, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting sumakianlee
hello @ FTI and friends according to my trading experience based on taf thread

weekly and daily chart is mean nothing !!

is that right ??

thx for the response

regard
sumakianlee
wrong,
we see the full picture of where the hot money moves in the larger charts, these volitility bands on the larger will decide our risk tenure for day trading & also our general trade direction, tho we may at times flip. No one trader can trade the smae way but the tenets ingrained in this thread should be constant.

to add to fullperson's statement of missing a move, theres no such thing as missing a move, at any point of time money still is traded (as long as market is open) again its only the voilitilty that decides our skewing within these moves, depending on the flexibility and liquidity of the said trader, different strategems can be used in order to efficiently build your book into profits.

of course avoid holidays and off market hours la. cheers!

Quote
as far as i remember fti say have no bias and be nimble ??

and bias for trend on hourly right ?

rgs

there will always be a bias, if not how do you even decide to go long or short, just that one needs to learn to accept when their bias is wrong.
  • #20,898
  • Edited Dec 30, 2010 3:43am Dec 29, 2010 9:47pm | Edited Dec 30, 2010 3:43am
Searching for inner peace. God pointed to me again.


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what a coincidence 1,3,5 7

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  • #20,899
  • Dec 29, 2010 9:54pm Dec 29, 2010 9:54pm
Good Afternoon Fti

Had your lunch yet?

Nice cozy weather for another session of steamboat

Here's another link u might wanna explore on meditation.

http://www.buddhanet.net/metta.htm
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #20,900
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:03pm Dec 29, 2010 10:03pm
Here's another link where our Senior MM discussed on using meditation to overcome stress...

Of course in addition to u plenty of exercise & fresh minty intake of oxygen unpolluted by tobacco helps too

http://theonlinecitizen.com/2010/09/...-lee-kuan-yew/

Rdgs
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
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