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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,861
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:07am Dec 29, 2010 4:07am
Quoting Fana
Hello Dragan53. My frient Maslanik broken my teeth by his leg. Another day we were fighting again
Hey, Fana I'm sorry to hear about your injury.

@Fana, majimoto

I can recommend you this martial art. The concept in this martial art is not to destroy your oppponent(although you can do a lot of damage with the techniques), but to merge with him and his energy flow.
There are also ki excersises which are very helpful for body control and refreshing, they work well against stress.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


In the demostrations it may seem that the attacker is falling by himself, but that's not true. When they applied some techniques on me, I realized that if a person doesn't follow, roll over or flip he'll will surely end up with broken arm,wrist or whatever the techique is aimed at.

I wish everyone a happy celebration of the New Year's Eve and let the next year be better than the previous.
  • #20,862
  • Edited 6:30am Dec 29, 2010 6:12am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I wonder if anyone can help me with this advice from the beginning of the thread:

"The other indicator is true average,
with that you can determine if the volatility is out of line for your risk tenure,
you can best understand this by studying the original Dow theory."

I am revisiting the start of the thread as I did not study it properly the first couple of times around but I don't understand how the Dow theory relates to true average?

Thanks
maybe help ... out rhytm
should be properly "out of line for your risk tenure" basis Dow theory is larger trend consists of a series of smaller trends.
  • #20,863
  • Dec 29, 2010 6:26am Dec 29, 2010 6:26am
Quoting jest1081
everyone, how do you do!

Well wishes and a happy new year!

Dear FTI,
I just read your testimony. My thoughts and prayers will be with you. Be well. God Bless.
I have been searching for FTI's testimony. Can someone please tell me what page it is on?

Thanks,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #20,864
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:03am Dec 29, 2010 7:03am
Quoting Gro
maybe help ... out rhytm
should be properly "out of line for your risk tenure" basis Dow theory is larger trend consists of a series of smaller trends.
The thing that confuses me is that the size of any intermediate moves / reactions or minor moves cannot be predicted, neither can the number of intermediate cycles, so I can't see how it helps with my risk tenure. Maybe I'm being a bit dumb.

Thanks for your input.
  • #20,865
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:12am Dec 29, 2010 7:12am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I wonder if anyone can help me with this advice from the beginning of the thread:

"The other indicator is true average,
with that you can determine if the volatility is out of line for your risk tenure,
you can best understand this by studying the original Dow theory."

I am revisiting the start of the thread as I did not study it properly the first couple of times around but I don't understand how the Dow theory relates to true average?

Thanks
IMO...........

One of the basic tenants of Dow theory is that Market Averages must confirm each other. When Dow wanted to gauge the strength of a bull run in the manufacturing sector, he would look to the transportation sector for signs of strenght. Reasoning if manufactures were producing more goods, they would in turn have to ship more, thus railroads wold see an upturn in business......... the averages of the sectors had to confirm each other if a full market move was happening.

To put that in currencies, if a move in the dollar is happening it should be seen across the board or 3k's. In a Dollar bull we should see the Euro, Pound fall and the Dollar climb against the Yen...... if that isn't happening, whats that tell you?

Averages for gauging can be........

benchmark levels of 3k's coming out of sessions/ranges. Tells you where money is flowing from and too

hourly/session/daily price average compared to the distance price has traveled from the average, think example 12sma of 5 minute bars = visual volatility

regards.
  • #20,866
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:18am Dec 29, 2010 7:18am
Thanks auxesis. Comparing hourly / daily or whatever benchmarks to how far the price has travelled from them makes sense if I am trying to get a handle on volatility but I don't see where an understanding of the Dow theory helps with this, although I do understand the comparison you made between the 3 ks and the two averages. Maybe my understanding of Dow theory is flawed.
Thank you for your help anyway.
  • #20,867
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:31am Dec 29, 2010 7:31am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks auxesis. Comparing hourly / daily or whatever benchmarks to how far the price has travelled from them makes sense if I am trying to get a handle on volatility but I don't see where an understanding of the Dow theory helps with this, although I do understand the comparison you made between the 3 ks and the two averages. Maybe my understanding of Dow theory is flawed.
Thank you for your help anyway.
Keep it simple,

Dow has 6 major parts,

Market has 3 movements (or better said time frames imho...) Overall trend, Daily/weekly, correction phases.... hourly/4 hour, current move (NOW)..... all can be in tandem or moving opposite, We would look to basic Elliott Wave for definition.

Market trends/moves have 3 phases..... accumulation, push, distribution.

Price discounts all news.

Averages must confirm each other.

Trends are confirmed by volume....... tough one to grasp as we cannot see true volume. You have to use your head and understand when markets are thin.

A trend is a trend until it ends. not before, so don't guess.

Have you seen any of this in the thread material?

regards
  • #20,868
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:46am Dec 29, 2010 7:46am
Quoting auxesis
Keep it simple,

Dow has 6 major parts,

Market has 3 movements (or better said time frames imho...) Overall trend, Daily/weekly, correction phases.... hourly/4 hour, current move (NOW)..... all can be in tandem or moving opposite,...
auxesis

Hi ukmanthailan
Figure 3 kgds: green E/U, blue G/U, orange U/Y ... You see 1, 3, 6 step and price is allways locked in a band, only the difference in volatility.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3kgd.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #20,869
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:52am Dec 29, 2010 7:52am
Quoting Gro
auxesis

Hi ukmanthailan
Figure 3 kgds: green E/U, blue G/U, orange U/Y ... You see 1, 3, 6 step and price is allways locked in a band, only the difference in volatility.
interesting chart.
seems like have to do a lot of reading.
.
  • #20,870
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:02am Dec 29, 2010 8:02am
Quoting nasir.khan
interesting chart.
seems like have to do a lot of reading.
.
Welcom nasir.khan
... everything is, in this thread
  • #20,871
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:08am Dec 29, 2010 8:08am
Quoting Gro
auxesis

Hi ukmanthailan
Figure 3 kgds: green E/U, blue G/U, orange U/Y ... You see 1, 3, 6 step and price is allways locked in a band, only the difference in volatility.
Hi Gro. Lock in band? Please, can you enlight more?
  • #20,872
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:15am Dec 29, 2010 8:15am
Quoting Fana
Hi Gro. Lock in band? Please, can you enlight more?
band = kgds
  • #20,873
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:18am Dec 29, 2010 8:18am
Quoting Gro
band = kgds
  • #20,874
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:23am Dec 29, 2010 8:23am
Quoting Gro
auxesis

Hi ukmanthailan
Figure 3 kgds: green E/U, blue G/U, orange U/Y ... You see 1, 3, 6 step and price is allways locked in a band, only the difference in volatility.

Thks Gro

So how's your lung taking to the mint of fresh air
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #20,875
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:34am Dec 29, 2010 8:34am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I wonder if anyone can help me with this advice from the beginning of the thread:

"The other indicator is true average,
with that you can determine if the volatility is out of line for your risk tenure,
you can best understand this by studying the original Dow theory."

I am revisiting the start of the thread as I did not study it properly the first couple of times around but I don't understand how the Dow theory relates to true average?

Thanks
... back to the question.
true average is "the rhythm" that creates the overall trend.
I think for us it is important, no trade news and accept in the MM, daily average "expansion".
  • #20,876
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:39am Dec 29, 2010 8:39am
Quoting Sylar
Thks Gro

So how's your lung taking to the mint of fresh air
at least one absurd cigarette, please ...
  • #20,877
  • Dec 29, 2010 9:02am Dec 29, 2010 9:02am
Quoting Gro
at least one absurd cigarette, please ...
If u start with 1 then would snowball into Fibo smoking seq 1,3,5,8,13 etc

From there u may skew down and execute a spiral within spiral...

So unless u wanna start the trend again my 2 EUR advice is better don't puff
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #20,878
  • Dec 29, 2010 9:28am Dec 29, 2010 9:28am
Quoting Gro
true average is "the rhythm" that creates the overall trend.
I thought the true average range referred to the relative length of the impulses or waves?

Or am I thinking of something else entirely?
  • #20,879
  • Dec 29, 2010 9:40am Dec 29, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Sylar
If u start with 1 then would snowball into Fibo smoking seq 1,3,5,8,13 etc

From there u may skew down and execute a spiral within spiral...

So unless u wanna start the trend again my 2 EUR advice is better don't puff
my daily average volatility (or ATR) was constant
  • #20,880
  • Dec 29, 2010 9:56am Dec 29, 2010 9:56am
From my interpretation, true average was used simply as a gauge for if you had missed the bus, and if the move was too risky to enter. I'm not advocating indicators, but I'm going to suggest putting on a 12 and 48 sma on a 5 min chart to see what I'm talking about. You will see periods of when the 12 sma rockets off from the 48 (this is the volatility). When the 12 sma rests and hangs out there for a while, you have an opportunity to enter the market. So basically if you see an opportunity, but notice that the 12 sma has jumped away from the 48 sma, then you realize that you have missed the bus (you have mistimed, the impulse is already in progress). Sometimes you can look at the steepness of the 12 sma (speed of the move aka "vega" I believe is the term fti used) and tell that it's going to be a really big move (in which case you can re-access your exposures and aggression).

So basically, the true average can give you a heads up on where the price is going/how fast it's going to move based on averages. This in combination alerts you to the progress of the move and proper position sizing.

HOWEVER, fti wants us to develop a reflex motion, so TAKE OFF THOSE INDICATORS. All the info you can get from true average, you can get by looking at the price +price does not lag. Again, the use of indicators I mentioned was only for you to see what's happening, not to be used.
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