Optimized Trend Trading

probably for another thread but this post is interesting given what you find when crunching EU in spreadsheets.

how can we use this in forex?

i was asking john the same thing.

i have no idea, even though the patterns i have / formula brings up s&r each time...

Here I want to shaw my lovely caterpillar bands with Traders dynamic index.
Unfortunately you can use those bands only on offline charts.

I really like also the trader dynamic index on Caterpillar. The SSA_normalize is better sometimes and worse sometimes but I prefer the basic.

By using enough lag you may prevent the recalculating (repainting). However there is a catch. Yes there is always, otherwise we would have a holy grail.
The fact is that what you get is what you have when the calculations are done. In reality there is a difference between the real time signal from the SSA working in the simulator and what you will see when you apply the indicator afterwards.

And you should know that. However still nice signals.

You need caterpillar_v3 to run the caterpillar version
You need SSA_normalize to run the normalize version

Check them in simulator to see what is going on. Or just open an expert in a visual mode and apply them as indicators.
You will see what is going on for real.
The normalize version keep posting the arrows. That is not a trading signal but just you should know that something like that may happen.

And here is what we get with the advanced filters. A small improvement over the original. I did not liked the number of the pips. I had a dream yesterday that my strategies come from the devil itself LOL.

this a great caterpillar strategy ,but if it doesnt work online how do we use it>?

cool fibo stuff,i made a tutorial on trading fibo numbers

check it out'


dagoods thanks for posting this stuff,im gonna give u some credits ,which i forgot to do in the video

I see that some people on the tread are interested by this topic.
OK here I post my vision for this.

The most important think is from where we are going to make the calculation. My answer is from the fractal break - out. That sets the beginning point of the calculation.
The idea is that when a fractal break- out occurs something important is happening in the market. Something that breaks its structure.

When we see the fractal break - out this is a confirmation for the technical break - out.

And we know that something important is going on. 15 m break out is more important than the 5 m btrak - out, 30 m fractal break - out is more important than the 15 m. and so on (it is common logic).

However on a daily basis we care mainly for the fractal dimension to the 15 m and 30 m.

After the market makes a break - out he takes a rest. He makes the first correction, before continuing. And here is the important staff. This is the common sense and traditional knowledge. We measure the first correction and from there me make a fibo expansion.

This technique is important for me because the market sets my price objectives and not an arbitrary decision from me. Usually I can and do catch break - outs but my problem is to know how much to expect from a given break - out. Here the markets tell me.

Theoretically that can be explained that the first correction after a fractal break - out sets a point fractal attractor. This is the simplest and most reliable form of fractal attractor. The market is attracted to a particular point.

Definitions: Fractal break - out - this is the transition of structure of the market. The market moves from one fractal state (with one probabilistic structure to another).

The most important fractal break - out is when we go from high fractal dimension (iVAR>0.5) towards low fractal dimension (iVAR <0.5).

We can use the FDI, or the FGDI, but they repaint the current bar (and that is normal). The iVAR never repaints even the current bar. I find it the most reliable instrument available in Metatrader for estimating those fractal patterns.

With those patterns we exploit the antipersitent cycles in the volatility of the market. Periods of High volatility are followed by periods of low volatility.
And that is the second fundamental feature of the market (The first is the trending feature of the market, driven by its internal memory with high (above 0.5) Hurst exponent).

Hoping that helps.

maybe it is something interesting. but it is pravity

Hi, I think we may make some experimets and try:

http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/ssa/#ssa_ssa

I am curious to see if that can provide an edge. Very serious guys use this kind of systems.

You need a Linux distribution to run that. Ubuntu is an easy choice, you can install it under Windows without dedicating a disk partition. It is really easy.

However to import data is a time consuming process (and I am not able to automate it). However that would be nice if we can. However what we have here is nice.

If you have some free afternoons to spare you can check this software. There are tutorials how to do it. The learning curve does not really seems to be steep.

After that it will be another thing to think how we can eventually use it in a strategy. I think that for a swing and trend following strategy will be fine.

If somebody is interested it will be nice to try it and inform us is there a possible hype (because we have a multivariate SSA).

Here it is the Cybernetic mod for better timing.

We use an adaptation according to the half of the dominant cycle of the Jurik CCI.
This is a common procedure but when it is applied to an advanced digital filter the results are very good.

As every time frame has its own dominant cycle we can have surprising nice results and fast and simultaneous response at different time levels.
We can have some low risk opportunities that we could miss in the traditional mod.

The trend magic will adapt itself to the current market conditions. Unfortunately the indicator Cycle period is not the best we can have, and there is always a delay in the adaptation.

However we have a nice system that reads the market language. In the same time we use the adaptation to the current volatility as the original does but in this mod we add an adaptation to the dominant cycle period.

Of course this mod is inferior than the SSA mod because the SSA technology is far more advanced. However it should not recalculate as the SSA does, and everybody could run. By the way the original SSA mod is based on the Mladen code of SSA of price. And it works in real time. But it is not a free indicator as the Caterpillar_v3 (meanwhile you can put the caterpillar and rename it as SSA of price and it should work).

For adaptation we use the Cycle period of Ehlers that you need to have it installed (of course do not forget the libraries for the digital filter, previously on this thread)

With Hilbert transform mod I have even better results. However I doubt if I can post it because this is a third party software I used for.
I used the Hilbert transform from the Forex digital solutions. However it is really cheap, less than 10 Euros.
I am not promoting just mentioning that it is great.

I add another custom mod. This time the ATR was somewhat replaced by error.

AND take care those indicators repaint the current bar.

hey john i reckon ull like this one

the rock
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/meta...rs-mt4-17.html

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...t4-therock.gif

a little treat for the vsa traders who have been looking for the diamond tradeguider sort of tool,
add it to forexflash's vsa template and itll be as close to trade guider well never close enough but there somewhere

all thanks to our friend
TheRumpledOne

Marry Christmass,

I share a lot of ideas with you. If you use them and find some pips, you have only one moral obligation. Today is the boxing day. And those mods are created with this spirit. Your moral obligation is to use some pips to invest in a good cause of your choice: ecological projects and fight against the poverty. As says Bono from U2 we talk not about charity, we talk about justice.


Dragan 53 you are a real Sherlock Holmes for trading systems. We had here so many mods for so little time that are belong my capacity to evaluate them.

Yes indeed this system is good and the jurik filtering can do it even better. We can smooth some of the pink noise signals (you add more Length and deviation). For that reason I had to prepare a JJMA bands indicator that does not have any sense (its only sense is to be inserted to be used by this system.

Another improvement is the possibility to use a fractional number for the deviations because this parameter affects the reactivity so you can fine-tune it.

This indicator looks nice when we have a lot of volatility and persistent price movements. However I do not like the initial stop it appears to be huge.

Please note, you have a confirmed signal at the close of the current bur. The signal may appear and disappear while the bar is open, meanwhile you may have several sound alerts during the same bar.

Installation:
-You need the JJMAseries in the include file (you can find it previously on this forum)
-You need to install all the indicators.
-The TE in fact means trend envelopes. And the guy from the link did not include it to its indicators and the indicators MTF_TE will not work without it.
Hopefully I guessed what would mean TE LOL.

However the indicators we have here as Trend magic are more powerfull, but this is just my opinion, the template is nice and looks good.

However I am reserved about the Sadukey indicator. When you look under the hood you see things that are probably the result of neural net optimization. And you do not know the process, what he did? Why? The neural nets are OK but you should be able to control the process. And you can't optimize again the net because you do not know how it is made. Some months ago I saw a neural net indicator for MT4. And it was cool the guy even provided a script to generate input data in order to optimize by yourself on JavaNNS.

Dear trading community,

I'm new here, so I can't post my own thread. I'm a sophisticated investor who understands the equity markets very well. I've made my money as an entrepreneur - building companies that do good things for people. I have no idea how to trade forex, but I do know how to build companies. I am looking for a company to build in the forex space. I have some ideas, but I need to find some people who are actually making real money in these markets. What I've seen is a lot of snake-oil salesmen and people who say they can make money but obviously are in the business of "helping" others, rather than getting rich with their own strategies. If you can help educate me, I'll tell you about my ideas and maybe we can find something together. Please contact me or set up a thread so we can discuss this. I could use the help of some smart people. Thanks.

i reckon these trendy systems are better for eurusd usdchf at calm times,
too much volatility can get lagging indis to show exits at times too late

im deciding to throw away all my indis and just to do volume spread analysis,and just look at accumulation and distribution

marry christmas to everyone celebrating it

are u orthodox john ? our christmas is in january7,
ill set a pending order to wish u a marry chrismas on january 7,heheh lol
marry christmas john

Mister JohnLast is a real SantaClous , thx Santa

Hi all,

LOL. Here I post again to give another example of the mentioned fibo technique.

You see the fractal break - out. And the retracement and the extension are calculated in the same way.

When we have a fractal break - out and technical break - out we look the 0.5 point of the iVAR or the 1,5 point of the FGDI (FDI) as the starting point. The second point is the first correction.

Here we had the COP (contracted objective point) with precision of several pips. I am pretty sure that if the market conditions were normal (Not a Holiday time) the market would go higher. Whenever we see break - outs at unusual times we should be very , extremely, careful.

In fact I have observed that the fibo techniques work at their best when we have a volatility contraction before a technical break - out. And at this point the fractal break is at the same point as the technical break - out. However often the market conditions are really complex. So I really want to avoid any arbitrary ideas in the fibo techniques. However this technique was discovered by pure coincidence and by chance. I have tested it for several months. The fractal break - out was tested by me more than an year with back -testing with an expert for the last 10 years. Yes it works, it is not a holy grail but it gives us a slight edge.

Fibospirit I see you are from Ukraine and you could understand the original article from the code base, written by Дубровников
http://codebase.mql4.com/4490
In fact all those nice mods would not been possible without the Russian geniuses: as Kositsin and Igorad. They are the real Santa Claus.

I am not exactly orthodox something in between catholic and orthodox.

NB. I do not mention that the classic way of fibo techniques are wrong. Not at all. I just want to share a different technique and that is all.

Here I add another example with fractal break - out and fibo technique.
We had a high fractal dimension with ranging characteristics.
After that we had a fractal break - out.

I saw the impulse bar. After that I made a fibo retracement from the 0.5 line of the iVAR to the expected high, waiting to see where the correction will go.

This is vey important because depending how far the price will retrace is telling us where the price would go after a potential break - out. In those moments the iVAR is helping a lot if the iVAR is pointing down we have a big probability for a break - out. If the iVAR is going back to 0.5 level it is probable that we could have a 2B entry with false break - out.


OK here the iVAR was pointing down:
From there several strategies are possible. One of the strategies is called Trader's Trick Entry. This strategies wants that we can take a long at the correction when we see that the movement is going upwards.

My strategy was to wait a break - out with buy - stop order.

From the fibo expansion we can predict where the price would go during this cycle of volatility expansion.

My target was the most modest one. Normally the right was is to open three positions

-the first should be closed at 61.8
-the second at 100
-the third you may not close at all hoping for a big trend following, or you can close at 161.8

Here we combine a very powerful adapting trading algorithm according to DSP cycle analysis with the advanced mathematics of the iVAR. And we do not forget the price action analysis.

Well I am not really proud of this position, because I have hit the most modest target.

However I recommend to you all the Law of the Charts of Joe Ross. There is a free e-book. I know some professional traders that rely exclusively on his patterns. My improvement was to add the fractal analysis and the advanced fibo calculations. In that way we have a mathematical advantage.