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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,761
  • Edited 11:03pm Dec 26, 2010 10:35pm | Edited 11:03pm
Quoting lilpip
starting the week looking at e/u 3117, lets see where she goes, 3070 area noted.

eyes open and watchin how 3131 area responds.
no markets lilpip, only price gaps so be careful.

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@ suba

General OTC Forex structure. (My findings from experimental trading)

direct interbank tier1------>minimum ticket 20million usd
direct interbank tier2------>minimum ticket 5million usd
direct interbank tier3------>minimum ticket 2million usd
interbank brokers ----> minimum ticket 1million usd
money changers-------> consumer rates
bank teller----------->trades at board rates
electronic transfers systems... eg crdit/debit cards, paypal,....

new IT electronic forex order books.(still in infancy, structure unstable yet),aka ECNs....eg currenex, fxall,.........

retail brokers.......eg,IB Forex,Dukascopy, Oanda, MB trading,..................

retail brokers wannabes, mostly subs of equities(stock) brokers. eg Afufatt brokers....so many

retail scammers.........undetermined... they fly by night.
  • #20,762
  • Edited Dec 27, 2010 1:09am Dec 26, 2010 11:09pm | Edited Dec 27, 2010 1:09am
Quoting fullperson

Also, if fti is still around/anyone who knows what working in a bank is like:
like in jail. you not locked in, just that the world is locked out.


Quoting fullperson

-I really want to work in currencies as a career. But I have heard that getting a job as a dealer or market maker is like getting a job with the fire dept (you have to be a son/ close relative to have connect). Unfortunately, I don't have these connects. Where do I go? How do I get from university to dealing? I heard working back office is best way to get in? I am worried with amount of quants and automation..maybe fx jobs will be gone.
Thats not true. But the problem is that in Treasurys of Banks, there are no jobs except in the back office. All them in Dealing rooms are specialist. Only way get in is performance. Performancers from all sectors of financial world is invited to the dealing rooms. You cannot perform , you are history. If you are good, every one wants you. Like me, I can walk into any dealing room I want, my problem is I am too old. Your problem is that you have no track record and experience YET. When you have the track record and experience, the offerS will COME to you. They will find their way, they have head hunters everywhere. Acedemic credentials means nothing, Only performance aka Bottom line.

With the Advent of the new retail structure, many performers , they come out and do this for themselves. Only peeps staying in dealing rooms are those who not have the seed money to do so YET. Used to require a couple million, now the grounds changing.
  • #20,763
  • Dec 26, 2010 11:38pm Dec 26, 2010 11:38pm
Good Morning Friends!

Nice to see you all showing up in here to send your amicable XMas greetings to the members of the TAF Family. Feeling very proud, be be a member of our little student union.

Hope you have had all some nice and relaxing days!
Have done some sports this early morning already: Clearing the area around our little house from snow ..... :-)

Wish you all the best!

MaMood
Niels
  • #20,764
  • Dec 27, 2010 12:12am Dec 27, 2010 12:12am
Good morning fti!

Glad to see you in here.

Hope that you'll find a little distraction here in your TAF home.
And that you are not too concerned/worried about our activities ...

Wish you all the best, sir!

MaMood
Niels
  • #20,765
  • Dec 27, 2010 12:23am Dec 27, 2010 12:23am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning fti!

Glad to see you in here.

Hope that you'll find a little distraction here in your TAF home.
And that you are not too concerned/worried about our activities ...

Wish you all the best, sir!

MaMood
Niels
hi neils, i trying to cope best i can.
this is worst than bad positions, keeping spirits highest i can muster.
The clips above, empitimises some of the mindsets and energies i had tried to present. So enojoy it.


merry christmas.
regards
  • #20,766
  • Dec 27, 2010 12:32am Dec 27, 2010 12:32am
Well hopefully you were allow to bring pictures or posters and the like, though I imagine the fast pace would be interest enough.

Looks like I'll be working the back office for a bit.
I'm pretty determined to perform, but I have a feeling that dealing and trading via a brokerage is a whole different story: new MO's, definitely new orderflow info, probably similar dance, waaaay more stress, maybe same mindset. I remember you mentioned that you would teach your dealers w/ a structured "boucher game". I wonder if I can get some experience in these via a school or internship or something.

Is the track record you're talking about pertaining to the dealer's record? I couldn't imagine that someone would walk out of back office knowing how to wheel and deal on their own.

As for market making, I don't think we've really gone over the use of lvl 2 for market depth? There's much to learn on moving prices or clearing S/R to make spread. What are the techniques to squaring/ delta neutralizing? How do we test strength of a possible level/keep intentions hidden?

Sorry for my continuous questions, I'm really just curious.....
  • #20,767
  • Edited 4:38am Dec 27, 2010 12:51am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting fullperson
Well hopefully you were allow to bring pictures or posters and the like, though I imagine the fast pace would be interest enough.

Looks like I'll be working the back office for a bit.
I'm pretty determined to perform, but I have a feeling that dealing and trading via a brokerage is a whole different story: new MO's, definitely new orderflow info, probably similar dance, waaaay more stress, maybe same mindset. I remember you mentioned that you would teach your dealers w/ a structured "boucher game". I wonder if I can get some experience in...
yes, thats why i am still at experimental levels in terms of my risk exposures.
many unanswered questions. Interigity, liquidity risk, counterparty risk, the one most scary is Market Access Risk. Seems many peeps switch off or spread wild when market access is most critical.

Oh the "Bourse Game", i not know any teachers of that now.
May still have in Banks, inhouse.

And your learning curve is dependant on what you have access to and your determination. I did thought about trying set up something to help some of you. But my enegies are low and now my home is breaking down. I will think about that when dust settles. My son's problems may take me forever so don't hold your breath on my account.

When you have the youth and energies and determination, believe me, little can hold you back.

regards

and no, the clips are for me too.
I am really skidding now, and on very thin ice too.
Oh, in case you may mistaken, this is not the famous Dr.
  • #20,768
  • Dec 27, 2010 4:30am Dec 27, 2010 4:30am
fti, very happy to see you here over the holidays. You have been in my thoughts this Christmas season and I hope you are managing and coping with your ordeal. God bless you and hope to see you back to trading in 2011.

Take care everyone...see you next week. Careful of the markets this week!
  • #20,769
  • Edited 8:28am Dec 27, 2010 7:20am | Edited 8:28am
A refresher for me.
My recording I did in australia.
I like to share, maybe of use to someone.
speaker Dr. M Banks
topic:Emotions & Balance, Sex Sin & Sanity.

regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: mp3 Track 01ff.mp3   2.2 MB | 698 downloads
  • #20,770
  • Dec 27, 2010 7:42am Dec 27, 2010 7:42am
Emotions are important to be controlled in forex trading. These are my teenage-emotions graph. They raised itself. No matter of circumstances. I cant explore it. But what is important is to find self-detector of the point, from which it is bad. I found it and when i feel, i am there, i just strongly make impulses and i shake with my brain using music, sports and so... and i have to WAIT. It repairs i dont know why also self. Speed up the brain. Give it impulses. Never i know which will be the impulse that get it to normall. ...
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  • #20,771
  • Dec 27, 2010 7:52am Dec 27, 2010 7:52am
Quoting Fana
Emotions are important to be controlled in forex trading. These are my teenage-emotions graph. They raised itself. No matter of circumstances. I cant explore it. But what is important is to find self-detector of the point, from which it is bad. I found it and when i feel, i am there, i just strongly make impulses and i shake with my brain using music, sports and so... and i have to WAIT. It repairs i dont know why also self. Speed up the brain. Give it impulses. Never i know which will be the impulse that get it to normall. ...
fana,

ya, my emotion occilating like crazy between the highs and lows. i keep forcing it up, and it keeps ocilating down.

K i cannot help, she's adult and out of my reach now. my kid i cannot cut loss, there is no alternative. But its very difficult when its intermitten. Not know when it comes.Now is peaceful, and i am bracing for the next.When is like this peaceful, i am so thankful see him nice and lovely. When his eyes roll up , i just want hug God.

regards
  • #20,772
  • Dec 27, 2010 8:03am Dec 27, 2010 8:03am
Hi Friends,

just for info:

NEW YORK, Dec 27 (IFR) -
* It's clearly a Holiday-lightened trading session so far in the treasury market, with the NYC blizzard keeping even more traders out of the market as mass transit is a mess. So far pit traders are feeling the New York void in cash trader participation with no major flows reported so far and only 67K TYH1 trading so far (only 16k USH1 traded).

Disclaimer: be aware of possibel Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #20,773
  • Dec 27, 2010 8:07am Dec 27, 2010 8:07am
Quoting Fana
Emotions are important to be controlled in forex trading. These are my teenage-emotions graph. They raised itself. No matter of circumstances. I cant explore it. But what is important is to find self-detector of the point, from which it is bad. I found it and when i feel, i am there, i just strongly make impulses and i shake with my brain using music, sports and so... and i have to WAIT. It repairs i dont know why also self. Speed up the brain. Give it impulses. Never i know which will be the impulse that get it to normall. ...

Hi Fana!

There is an interesting "Mind-exploration" technique called "Freeze Framing". It adresses exactly that issue, to detect, when mind/emotions are getting out of control ...
Have no link at hand atm, but google will help you for sure ..

CU,
Niels
  • #20,774
  • Dec 27, 2010 8:07am Dec 27, 2010 8:07am
Been a while since I last checked in here so I thought I should drop in to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas and calm and fruitful New Year with goodspeed in your trading and tons of love and peace in your hearts.
Fti, it's good to see you still find some time for the forum. I hope the new year finds you with you troubles behind your back.

Regards
S
  • #20,775
  • Dec 27, 2010 8:39am Dec 27, 2010 8:39am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Fana!

There is an interesting "Mind-exploration" technique called "Freeze Framing". It adresses exactly that issue, to detect, when mind/emotions are getting out of control ...
Have no link at hand atm, but google will help you for sure ..

CU,
Niels
Hi Niels
Interesting. Thank you
  • #20,776
  • Edited 9:31am Dec 27, 2010 8:45am | Edited 9:31am
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  • #20,777
  • Dec 27, 2010 9:30am Dec 27, 2010 9:30am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_2ZUoC9jDI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAhiiaV7UFs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_89U-N-5w0g

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7SI7N22k_A

Hey,

seems to be a mixture of sentimental journey, mindset fixing and motivation tubes ....

I Like it ;-)
  • #20,778
  • Dec 27, 2010 9:35am Dec 27, 2010 9:35am
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  • #20,779
  • Dec 27, 2010 9:41am Dec 27, 2010 9:41am
Hi, everyone.

fti, do you have a personal psychologist? The caretakers usually suffer a mental toll, so its important that you take care of your feelings too. You are a very strong person, and you have many pleasures to remind you that despite the hardships, life is beautiful. I know you'll pull through. Still, it can't hurt to find some support at your church, maybe even group counsel for parents in similar situations

yes, things here are very different from banks. We are essentially under the mercy of brokers. I've heard stories on other threads while searching for an HONEST broker, that the access through a broker xyz just "magically" froze only to find out half an hour later that their stops were hit. In fact, they might even be watching your moves (you have larger contract sizes..they smell a pro). Also, I still can't find liquidity providers on websites and they definitely pull liquidity before major news announcements. That's for sure.

Did you ever settle on an "acceptable" broker? I am thinking about starting to do some practice using 1,1,1 positions on a smaller account to get a feel for the broker "prices"

MaMood, I hear that you have some kind of morning chat thing? I'm asking because I want to start learning how to separate good news from bad (though generally when no major CB or debt crisis happens I just do the romance to see computers madly doing arb or the MM moving prices to maintain supply or currency).

I also just recently read through a few of the past posts and found out that you can "transfer" attack/rescue from one pair to another...I have much to learn!
  • #20,780
  • Edited 10:07am Dec 27, 2010 9:47am | Edited 10:07am
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