Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1036 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,701
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:46am Dec 22, 2010 6:46am
Quoting Gro
Hi fullperson

Absolutely all OK, not a bad question.You wrote:"I'm just very picky about every word fti says".
I'm copying words FTI because my English is poor but I'll try describe it using own words.
TIME WINDOWS = two words together.
Why the "time"...
"time" is motion and "window" is opportunity = opportunity to utilization motion ...
  • #20,702
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:10am Dec 22, 2010 9:10am
I want to wish everyone on TAF a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I will spend less time trading through the rest of the year and will probably not be around until 2011. Bless you and you are all in my prayers.
  • #20,703
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:14am Dec 22, 2010 9:14am
Hello friends. Happy Christmas. Great to be here again.
  • #20,704
  • Dec 22, 2010 12:19pm Dec 22, 2010 12:19pm
ok, here I am trying to figure out what you all said:

-"hint butterfly"= use options to take volatility money. But fti says don't write if you have no experience, so I will not write like fti said until I learn more (which I am doing now)

-"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite;
after a long period of union, tends to divide
This has been so since antiquity."---The Romance of Three Kingdoms.

This means that volatility tears the markets, we wait for them to come back to sync and take advantage of this (kind of like dow theory, that prices will come back). Maybe we recuse when the markets come back to sync in our direction (like fti's dance he showed us). Maybe we can use patterns we see in other pairs to give hints on where to go.

fti calls it time and window because time=volatility time from romance, and window = opportunity to use time.

So for example, EUR and GBP are tearing. We wait for them to bottom out/top out and show signs of wanting to dance together again (triple bottom, strong s/r, price patterns). This is the time, the "motion".

When they start to dance together again, we have "window"- open window to attack if we want, BUT does not mean we attack or add position, time window only means we have GOOD TERRAIN to move army.

Next, we go to 5min chart, we watch volatility and feel the pulse. If we feel the EUR want to move in one direction, we add linearly: 1,1,1,1,1... to position. When we see pattern or break out we go to lvl 2 attack ect ect.
----
Why I think everyone is correct about definition of time window:

Romancing = take advantage of different volatility, knowing volatility will usually come back (dow theory)

-money move across different markets = romancing the different pairs (for all pairs, global)
-money move through tier1 to tier 2 to broker to you = romancing the MARKET STRUCTURE (for one pair like EUR, volatility changes from one dealer to next, so fti says "fizzle out"). This is why fti says we need to know market structure.

So everyone is right because romancing only means using timing to make volatility money. We just have to choose which one to romance.
???

Please correct me, I am only just starting to read fti now that school is on vacation
  • #20,705
  • Dec 22, 2010 12:52pm Dec 22, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting fullperson
ok, here I am trying to figure out what you all said:

-"hint butterfly"= use options to take volatility money. But fti says don't write if you have no experience, so I will not write like fti said until I learn more (which I am doing now)

-"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite;
after a long period of union, tends to divide
This has been so since antiquity."---The Romance of Three Kingdoms.

This means that volatility tears the markets, we wait for them to come back to sync and take advantage of this (kind...
bias is the daily trend, 3kgds the covers back and maintain the trend ... and "you knock ... and the door will be opened" (If you knock on the door and not on the wall)
  • #20,706
  • Dec 22, 2010 1:00pm Dec 22, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Gro
bias is the daily trend, 3kgds the covers back and maintain the trend ... and "you knock ... and the door will be opened" (If you knock on the door and not on the wall)
  • #20,707
  • Dec 22, 2010 1:02pm Dec 22, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
  • #20,708
  • Dec 22, 2010 1:16pm Dec 22, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Gro
bias is the daily trend, 3kgds the covers back and maintain the trend ... and "you knock ... and the door will be opened" (If you knock on the door and not on the wall)
Very nice!
  • #20,709
  • Edited 2:09pm Dec 22, 2010 1:38pm | Edited 2:09pm
no dilema
Inserted Video


strong general
Inserted Video


and warning
Inserted Video
  • #20,710
  • Dec 22, 2010 2:28pm Dec 22, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting fullperson
ok, here I am trying to figure out what you all said:

-"hint butterfly"= use options to take volatility money. But fti says don't write if you have no experience, so I will not write like fti said until I learn more (which I am doing now)

-"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite;
after a long period of union, tends to divide
This has been so since antiquity."---The Romance of Three Kingdoms.

This means that volatility tears the markets, we wait for them to come back to sync and take advantage of this...
FullPerson.... can u please your questions in pointed way... i am unable to understand your question.......

V
  • #20,711
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:05pm Dec 22, 2010 3:05pm
Sorry indianguyinny, more specifically:

- Is the Romance based on dow theory, that the correlations should resume?
- Is a "time window" a place where pairs w/ disjointed correlations return to the common trend of correlations
-do we use these "time windows" to find best points to conduct rescues (when correlations continue as normal)
-do we use these "time windows" to find best places to attack?
It all boils down to---> how do we use the romance properly?


Gro, so I should follow the daily trend for bias until the pair goes into a retrace (when this happens I use the romance to time when the retrace will end and continue in the daily trend)? Am I making things more complicated than they need to be?

..so what you are saying is that I am knocking, but knocking on the wrong place. Maybe I should try knocking somewhere else...Can you help me find the door, or at least turn on the lights in here...it's very dark. Please, what is the door, and what is the wall that you are talking about??

I will try to find the light switch by reading through the pages on this thread concerning the keyword "romance"
  • #20,712
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:16pm Dec 22, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting fullperson
Sorry indianguyinny, more specifically:

- Is the Romance based on dow theory, that the correlations should resume?
Yes and NO

Quote
- Is a "time window" a place where pairs w/ disjointed correlations return to the common trend of correlations
-do we use these "time windows" to find best points to conduct rescues (when correlations continue as normal)
-do we use these "time windows" to find best places to attack?
I am not a time window guy....but what time window for me is the Time my scout goes in till i am totally out....not sure if this is time window u r seeking

Quote
It all boils down to---> how do we use the romance properly?

IT BOILS DOWN TO -> Can u read her dance...or more specific can u follow her.....using a romance is just a way to gauge her dance......
Quote
Gro, so I should follow the daily trend for bias until the pair goes into a retrace (when this happens I use the romance to time when the retrace will end and continue in the daily trend)? Am I making things more complicated than they need to be?

U r fine...

Quote
..so what you are saying is that I am knocking, but knocking on the wrong place. Maybe I should try knocking somewhere else...Can you help me find the door, or at least turn on the lights in here...it's very dark. Please, what is the door, and what is the wall that you are talking about??

FP do u think posting this will help u?????......i think one door he is referring to and i think everyone refers here is ...if u dont mind may i ask have u read 200 pages fully and how long it took u to read...bcz if u said one weekend i will be rolling my eyes...

V
  • #20,713
  • Edited 4:00pm Dec 22, 2010 3:43pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting fullperson
Sorry indianguyinny, more specifically:

- Is the Romance based on dow theory, that the correlations should resume?
- Is a "time window" a place where pairs w/ disjointed correlations return to the common trend of correlations
-do we use these "time windows" to find best points to conduct rescues (when correlations continue as normal)
-do we use these "time windows" to find best places to attack?
It all boils down to---> how do we use the romance properly?


Gro, so I should follow the daily trend for bias until the pair goes into a retrace...
when you will know that you're right? ... therefore, "you constantly knock, and it maybe will open door"

3kgds complement each other ... if chaos appears ordered, it is the unmistakable sign that something is wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3kgd.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #20,714
  • Dec 22, 2010 5:48pm Dec 22, 2010 5:48pm
I read from: http://www.free-books.us/Others/187232/FTI-RANT

I am on page 64 in this specific text, not sure how many pages this counts on the thread (this is a re-read, the first time I read through the first 200 pages was a skim to get a base understanding of the material. This second read I am doing currently forces me to scrutinize every word that fti uses, and currently the words you an gro use)

No, I am reading very slowly, digesting slowly. I have not paid much attention to the romance yet (I am in the process of reading and popped in for a bit of clarification).

Do not take for granted that I know what the door is, you cannot expect me to understand you at my stage of reading. Please rephrase your comment in layman's terms.

At this point this is all I know about the romance:

-eur and gbp follow each other, and eur and jpy normally go in differing directions.
-if the above is not true, there is usually some fundamental reason why this is happening = be nimble, unwind trades
- the romance can indicate lack of liquidity
- romance can indicate a leading pair and its volatility can give you the tempo of the dance, though not necessarily the pulse as you mentioned (the pulse is to found on the 5 min).
-romance can be used to time best and worst places to rescue.

Anything more than the above, I do not understand, but I will encounter it as my reading is continued. I find it a bit unfair that it is assumed that I am as educated in fti's methods as you are, please give me time.

gro, what do the numbers on the chart refer to, and can I create a similar chart in MT4 platform (would be helpful as I learn to feel the 3 kingdoms)

As always, excuse my ignorance. I am trying very hard to learn and it would help me a lot if everyone used layman's terms and clear references. Your help will surely cut down on my learning curve.
  • #20,715
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:33pm Dec 22, 2010 6:33pm
This is what I understand, and I hope that if I am wrong, fti or someone will correct me:

1. The "Romance", is just a convenient term used to discribe the relationship (in term of movement) between the 3: eur, gbp & jpy. We try to extract information of the hidden hand hehind this observed movement relationship.

2. If the movement is in syn (eg: eu up & gu up & uj down), the hidden hand is the movement of usd.

3. If the movement is not in syn, then the movement does not come from usd, or usd alone. When this is noted, the movement in pair that we are trading can be tricky - meaning it could be false breakout, stop sweep, whipsaws, jerky reaction, non-confirmation, thin market. To me, it mean that we have the extra careful, try not to load too heavy into positions, try not to aim for the sky for profits, try to trade conservatively if already in trading session.

Quoting fullperson
At this point this is all I know about the romance:

-eur and gbp follow each other, and eur and jpy normally go in differing directions.
-if the above is not true, there is usually some fundamental reason why this is happening = be nimble, unwind trades
Nimble yes, unwind trades it depends. But be extra alert and conservative in MM is the key.


Quoting fullperson
- the romance can indicate lack of liquidity
Yes, it can, but not necessarily just that. See point 3 above.

Quoting fullperson
- romance can indicate a leading pair and its volatility can give you the tempo of the dance, though not necessarily the pulse as you mentioned (the pulse is to found on the 5 min).
Yes.

Quoting fullperson
-romance can be used to time best and worst places to rescue.
Err... not sure what you are saying, but this is what I wish to add:

fti, and Mamood can span the trading session into more than 1 pair, and end the session in profit. This mean that if we are stuck with a pair (say eu), and this pair we have traded has lost volitility, they can run across to another pair (say gu) to do attack/rescue. The purpose is to trade the pair that has higher volatility rather then get stuck with the one we just started and don't move. This is where the observation from the R3k comes in.

But this requires higher skill level and understanding of the tempo of different pairs. I am not sure how many of us here can do that; I can't.

Like I say, if I am wrong, someone please correct me.

Thanks.
  • #20,716
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:42pm Dec 22, 2010 7:42pm
thanks hcong, this is the point where I am at. I will wait for confirmation before committing these to memory. I know there is probably more to it. If there is more to it, we can both learn from my bringing up the question.
  • #20,717
  • Dec 22, 2010 11:14pm Dec 22, 2010 11:14pm
Good morming Friends,
Good Morning FullPerson!

From my undesrtanding the last postings have covered all aspects of the 3 Kgds correct. But let my try to describe it a litte different:

The definition of synchronictiy of 3kgds and possible interpretations have been given already. Also, what it means, when 3Kgds not in sync.

In my daily trading I just try to monitor the 3Kgds very continuesly. After some time (maybe 15 minutes or so) you may see, how the movement on one chart relates to the movements on the other 2 charts. If you have detected such a relation, just use it to your advance as a kind of pre-indication or alert-function for what hoiw the other pairs will react soon.

If you have detected such a relation, you have spotted let's call it the "money-flow" from one currency into the others.

This phenomenom may last for hours. But unfortunately it can be valid for only a few minutes as well. Fti has stated somewhere about such "correlations", that we should use them to our advantage as long as the relation is valid. If there is no such correlation, just skip this additional possibility to get some "inside" information out of the 3Kgds/markets.

We have to have an eye all the time on the 3 Kgds while trading, to use possible included information to our advantage. There are days/hours, when you can time your actions well supported on the 3 Kgds. But there times, when they do not offer any info at all ...

Cu,
MaMood
  • #20,718
  • Dec 23, 2010 4:59am Dec 23, 2010 4:59am
Dear All

Wanna wish u guys Merry Xmas & Happy New Year

May the coming year bring in plenty of joy & happiness plus loads of PiPs


Cheers
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #20,719
  • Dec 23, 2010 5:06am Dec 23, 2010 5:06am
Hi Friends,

seems the "greetings and good wishes" season is opened
So I do not want to miss opportunity to wish you and your families all the best. Enjoy the your holidays and relax.

Hope to see you all again next year.
There is still much to learn, but also many pips to be earned...

And do not forget, that all the things you are going eat during the coming celebrations, you have to carry on with you in the next weeks/years

Best regards,
Niels
MaMood

Edit: And don't forget to spend a few minutes of your time, to thank all the poeple, that have supported you during the year in any way. And let's accumulate all our good wishes and positive energies to support FTI in his recent challenges!
  • #20,720
  • Dec 23, 2010 5:21am Dec 23, 2010 5:21am
Quoting fullperson
Sorry indianguyinny, more specifically:

- Is the Romance based on dow theory, that the correlations should resume?
- Is a "time window" a place where pairs w/ disjointed correlations return to the common trend of correlations
-do we use these "time windows" to find best points to conduct rescues (when correlations continue as normal)
-do we use these "time windows" to find best places to attack?
It all boils down to---> how do we use the romance properly?


Gro, so I should follow the daily trend for bias until the pair goes into a retrace...
... wall easily recognize "not open"
11 traders viewing now