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vsa with Malcolm

  • #8,061
  • Dec 20, 2010 4:58am Dec 20, 2010 4:58am
Quoting HiddenGap
First off I have to say, "wow". The chart on the left is from a week ago Friday and the one on the right is from Friday. The pattern is very similar. I think I said something about not knowing what to do tomorrow (Monday) but knowing what to do always......
I must also start with 'wow' - thank you for your contribution. This is really great to study and learn from. Once again, thank you.
  • #8,062
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:07am Dec 20, 2010 5:07am
Erm IBFX demo just went nuts and I don't see last 45 min. of price action. I assume the range was well supported?
  • #8,063
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:07am Dec 20, 2010 5:07am
Quoting wskeal
hey guys whats up. Lets talk about vsa concept.

I think the main idea of "Smart Money drives the price" can not be useful at forex market. Let me explain.

Forex market has vey huge volume compared to stock market. Some institutional traders and funds can change prices of non liquid stock, its simple cuz if you want to move price of stock then you neednt have very huge amount of money, cuz volume of one stock trading is not very huge. So you can catch some stop orders of other traders, you can shake out some traders, you can manipulate price...
Interesting post, the size and liqiudity of the forex market has always made me sceptical as to whether it can be "manipulated" in the same way as stocks can, Tom Williams himself has said " currencies are dangerous, very...very dangerous"...

Having said that though, i`ve seen enough to know VSA works in the fx market, upthrusts, stopping v, nd, tests...it`s all there. You only need to look at this thread and the posts in it to see that.

Nice post though.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #8,064
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:13am Dec 20, 2010 5:13am
Actually, when I started with VSA I had a same thoughts, but after when I could see distribution in EUR/YEN H1 and 550 pips move after that I stopped thinking.
  • #8,065
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:20am Dec 20, 2010 5:20am
Quoting juhanimi
Actually, when I started with VSA I had a same thoughts, but after when I could see distribution in EUR/YEN H1 and 550 pips move after that I stopped thinking.
That`s what i need to do....stop thinking ....lol
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #8,066
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:37am Dec 20, 2010 5:37am
Go with the flow and take signals near trendlines and close fast if does not work.
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  • #8,067
  • Dec 20, 2010 12:42pm Dec 20, 2010 12:42pm
Hi, I was wondering when has a set up past ie let's say there is general weakness in the background and you wait for a valid set up - you see an upthrust in to new high and a few bars later a nd bar you enter on the low of the nd and are in your trade, 2 bars later price is moving up again is the set up failed - cut your losses and wait for a new set up or stick with it due to weakness in background untill background changes - just wondering hope someone can comment thanks
  • #8,068
  • Dec 20, 2010 1:17pm Dec 20, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting censura
Hi, I was wondering when has a set up past ie let's say there is general weakness in the background and you wait for a valid set up - you see an upthrust in to new high and a few bars later a nd bar you enter on the low of the nd and are in your trade, 2 bars later price is moving up again is the set up failed - cut your losses and wait for a new set up or stick with it due to weakness in background untill background changes - just wondering hope someone can comment thanks
Set SL at high of UT + 2pips and let her run till you decide to TP.
  • #8,069
  • Dec 20, 2010 2:04pm Dec 20, 2010 2:04pm
was thinking about this while in my relaxed state ( not been trading for 1 week now)

IF us work force is 131 million ... and unemployment 9.6 % that makes almost 12 million unemployed. yet unemployment claims only 420 k ...mean that 11.5 million in us are living with no job and no support...

or 33% of the population of canada.

In Vegas recently I went off strip and looked around. I still could not believe the poverty I saw in some areas ... and i have traveled all over the world. The things I saw were equal to the shanties i saw in Venezuela

been some pretty nice vsa set up on gold 10 min today and it is nice $10 range x 2 trades right inbetween s/r lines
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #8,070
  • Dec 20, 2010 4:14pm Dec 20, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting censura
Hi, I was wondering when has a set up past ie let's say there is general weakness in the background and you wait for a valid set up - you see an upthrust in to new high and a few bars later a nd bar you enter on the low of the nd and are in your trade, 2 bars later price is moving up again is the set up failed - cut your losses and wait for a new set up or stick with it due to weakness in background untill background changes - just wondering hope someone can comment thanks
At this point you have to think you may be right on direction but wrong on timing. Look to re-enter on the another ND or Up Thrust. As long as you do not see any signs of strength, you should be predisposed to the short side.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #8,071
  • Dec 20, 2010 4:33pm Dec 20, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
was thinking about this while in my relaxed state ( not been trading for 1 week now)

IF us work force is 131 million ... and unemployment 9.6 % that makes almost 12 million unemployed. yet unemployment claims only 420 k ...mean that 11.5 million in us are living with no job and no support...

Hallo Mal,

may I chime in on the US job(less) numbers? Okay, here we go:

- around 310 million people live in the United States
- roughly 239 million are over the age of 16, not in the Armed Forces, not in prison or in nursery homes, and fall therefore in the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) "civilian noninstitutional population" category
- of those 239 million, 85 million are not part of the civilian labor force (e.g. college students, housewives, retirees) with the remaining 154 million presenting the civilian labor force
- of those 154 million, about 15 million are counted as unemployed (according to ILO definitions, which is also called 'U3' unemployment; that is where the 9.8% Nov 2010 headline number comes from; in order to be in this category one has to look actively for a job)
- however, another 1.2 million are "discouraged workers" (0.8% of civilian labor force), 1 million are "loosely attached workers" (0.7%), and 8.8 million people are working part-time instead of full-time, because of economic conditions (5.7%)
- so in fact, adding up all the unemployed and underemployed people, the actual number of unemployment is 26 million, which amounts to roughly 17% (!) of the civilian labor force

- the 420k unemployment claims number of the first full December week is a flow variable, it gives the number of people, who filed for unemployment benefits in that week
- the current number of unemployment benefit claimants, the stock variable, is pretty close to 4 million


From all of the above one can conclude that your assertion, "11.5 million in us are living with no job and no support", is pretty darn close. Exacerbated is the situation by the fact that around 40% of the 15 million of 'U3' are long-term unemployed (longer than 27 weeks).

Well, that was a long off-topic post, but I thought it is of interest.


Gruß,

Wolfgang
  • #8,072
  • Dec 20, 2010 4:35pm Dec 20, 2010 4:35pm
Malcolmb,

"yet unemployment claims only 420 k"


"The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; " source, FF

Some long standing unemployed will find work, only to be replaced by those losing their jobs this week.

The big problem is when the work they find is only part time, the low weekly income is enough to get them off the official figures but puts them into a life of living on the edge of poverty.
  • #8,073
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:11pm Dec 20, 2010 10:11pm
thoughts for new year

stock market up , es thru 1257 into 1300 area

eurousd up ... seems to be getting accumulated at 1.3150 area

gold .. for sure being bought.... thinking new high in Jan
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #8,074
  • Dec 21, 2010 1:48am Dec 21, 2010 1:48am
What's with the EU move during Asian session? China's helping Europe? In any case, so long, weak shorts!
  • #8,075
  • Dec 21, 2010 2:12am Dec 21, 2010 2:12am
Nice London open . Haven't seen this for a while.
  • #8,076
  • Dec 21, 2010 2:33am Dec 21, 2010 2:33am
So long, weak longs lol Those are some high volume down bars!
  • #8,077
  • Dec 21, 2010 4:21am Dec 21, 2010 4:21am
Sorry guys, a quick post here about another thread.

I was issued a challenge by Shamus in his last post, but suddenly I am banned from the thread. So he posts a challenge to me to post a chart then suspends my access. That way it looks like I backed down. It's shrewd but a lie.

I guess he realizes the truth: My argument has always been that anything SMART can do, the individual without SMART can do. Here is the chart I wanted to post in his thread.

I am particularly interested in seeing if SMART can pick up the three key bars here: 1. the squat 2. the test (which is a good test) 3. The bar that causes us to have no result from a test.

Okay Shamus, bring it.............
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #8,078
  • Dec 21, 2010 4:54am Dec 21, 2010 4:54am
Quoting HiddenGap
Sorry guys, a quick post here about another thread.

I was issued a challenge by Shamus in his last post, but suddenly I am banned from the thread. So he posts a challenge to me to post a chart then suspends my access. That way it looks like I backed down. It's shrewd but a lie.

I guess he realizes the truth: My argument has always been that anything SMART can do, the individual without SMART can do. Here is the chart I wanted to post in his thread.

I am particularly interested in seeing if SMART can pick up the three key bars...
I guess the reason is that you have nothing to lose but he has ... SMART
  • #8,079
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:01am Dec 21, 2010 5:01am
Quoting HiddenGap
Sorry guys, a quick post here about another thread.

I was issued a challenge by Shamus in his last post, but suddenly I am banned from the thread. So he posts a challenge to me to post a chart then suspends my access. That way it looks like I backed down. It's shrewd but a lie.

I guess he realizes the truth: My argument has always been that anything SMART can do, the individual without SMART can do. Here is the chart I wanted to post in his thread.

I am particularly interested in seeing if SMART can pick up the three key...
Oooh, I saw the thread. Pretty bad if you were banned from there. As with any software, the trader will have to pull the trigger (if it's not automated) and bear the consequences. Tradeguider, from what I've seen, is giving signals left and right but that doesn't mean you jump at every signal. Same with SMART. I bet it's pretty close to Tradeguider signal wise. I can definitely see it marking the UT. So the point is that software helps when you actually understand the principles.

Your argument is, of course, correct. Anyone can trade without SMART and without Tradeguider for that matter. You just have to train hard and do so only if the logic behind the system makes sense. Otherwise it's just guessing.

Also on the use of candles. I don't get it. What difference does it make? Candles, bars. It's the same information. High, low, open, close. VSA ignores open. So just ignore the open.

Also on your chart you marked a bar as supply coming in. Isn't that bar actually breaking through the range to the left and would actually make it bullish? What came after that was definitely not bullish with no result from effort and UT.
  • #8,080
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:17am Dec 21, 2010 5:17am
Quoting comapip
..Also on the use of candles. I don't get it. What difference does it make? Candles, bars. It's the same information. High, low, open, close. VSA ignores open. So just ignore the open.
It doesn't matter. However one cannot claim to be using Pure VSA and be using candles. If one says, for example, that a No Demand is particularly strong if it is also a Doji, then one has gone past the realm of VSA. This happens to be true but don't sell a piece of software claiming to be pure VSA if you are going to mark a No Demand Doji.

I have talked about key reversal bars and WRBs. I was always quick to point out that neither concept is purely VSA because the open is taken into account.

I like candles and do feel some insight is gained by looking at the open, but I am not trying to sell (VSA) software .......

Also for a long time there, he would show is painted candle charts with no volume. It's hard to say it's Pure VSA when there in no volume on a chart and there are candles.

Quoting comapip
...Also on your chart you marked a bar as supply coming in. Isn't that bar actually breaking through the range to the left and would actually make it bullish? What came after that was definitely not bullish with no result from effort and UT.
I am giving away some of the challege here. LOL The key is the next candle, the squat. This up candle on increasing volume with a narrow range that closes off its highs shows that the previous bar must of had some selling. More over, if the previous bar was strong, you would see it tested almost immediately.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
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